IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #9

[Ollipop]

I think it could have happened very simply. The girls at around 12:15:
"Let's ride to the lake and back fast before we have to go home!"
They are riding fast in the video. They got to the lake and were going to ride around it and out fast.
At the point where the bikes were found, someone got them to drop their bikes and come with him, either by calling urgently to them "Come and help me find my dog, kitty, baby, whatever" or threatening with a weapon. They dropped their bikes and went into the woods with him and he quickly subdued them, either with a knife to the throat of one, or hit them, knocked them out, whatever it was, it was quick and possibly violent. TG rides by, they are back in the undergrowth being kept quiet. Perp then takes them to a waiting vehicle and is gone. All in a minute or two.

The noise from the adjacent highway has been mentioned here several times, it would mask any noise made by movement in the undergrowth and also any outcries from the girls.
It happens, so fast no one notices. It even happens in places not hidden nearly as well as this pathway is at that point.

I think this person was there and saw them coming from across the lake. That gave him just enough time to get into place if he needed to move a little or get a knife out, whatever.

I do not believe it could have been planned as no one knew they would be there.

I believe this was a crime of opportunity. He had the opportunity and he took it. It happens.

...the only thing that I can't fit into this scenario is the purse being on the other side of the fence, set down neatly as if dropped over the fence and not thrown.

Where is the closest place that a vehicle could park to the spot where the bikes were found?
I've looked at the maps and can't tell. TIA MOO JMO

BBM...You could park a vehicle in those woods, out of view from the trail and from the road, 50 ft from the trail. The problem is that there would be an 8ft fence between you and the trail, and dense-ish woods to traverse if you wanted to circumvent that fence.

 

[Gracelin]

Perhaps the reward fund will increase, with each interview..

 

[Thinkzerz]

This makes me really suspect stranger abduction again...(my theory changes hourly). MOO

Mine too.

 

[Sunlight]

There's one thing about this scenario that doesn't work for me. If they were accosted by someone on the path, why would that person do it in the double fence area. It seems to me that it would be much easier to call out to the girls and get control of them without having to leave their bikes in the double fence area ... that is, why not do this where there was only one fence?

It would be like running horses into a catch pen...or a "draw"..you can block them. If there was a weapon used...they might just freeze. If the person(s) know side trails and fence openings, they could just leave with them...in virtual silence...to a waiting vehicle or way into the woods.

 

[Athena12]

This makes me wonder how often Elizabeth had been to the lake. If she had been riding there on a regular basis, someone knowledgeable of that fact might have seen the two girls headed that way and driven down there quickly to lay in wait. Ugh.

 

[epiphany]

And why, if I'm understanding this correctly, is there confusion about the girls going to the lake (between Aunt T and Gma) at this point? By now, have they not discussed it amongst themselves? (I seriously don't understand that. No snark. Pure confusion.)

Perhaps, because the confusion is between what Aunt Tammy and other family members knew (not GMa) and what Elizabeth's parents did Not know.

Until I hear the transcripts, for all I know, Lyric had been down to the lake in the past with Elizabeth and the other girls.

 

[Sunlight]

This makes me wonder how often Elizabeth had been to the lake. If she had been riding there on a regular basis, someone knowledgeable of that fact might have seen the two girls headed that way and driven down there quickly to lay in wait. Ugh.

Or if they had a new routine, the person could already be there waiting for them or other prey. The girls usually reappeared at the house hourly per gma in an interview I saw..MOO

 

[CoachSue]

Who said anything about guns? Uh-oh. The statement analysis folks will be all over that... :moo:

I believe she said that because the Iowa reporter that the Judge interviewed before Tammy and grandma mentioned a gun charge when he talked about Dan's impending charges...

 

[Sunlight]

FWIW Judge Jeanine did end the show by saying that LE knows something we don't know...or words that effect. MOO

 

[cluciano63]

You would think they could appoint a spokesperson without having to pay; i.e. someone from a church or contact Marc Klass, for heaven's sake. They should do that anyway. Rewards do not work in cases involving children, no one wants to admit knowing or doing anything to kids.

 

[katydid23]

There's one thing about this scenario that doesn't work for me. If they were accosted by someone on the path, why would that person do it in the double fence area. It seems to me that it would be much easier to call out to the girls and get control of them without having to leave their bikes in the double fence area ... that is, why not do this where there was only one fence?

I think, and someone correct me if I am wrong, that locals like Ollie have said that it was the only place that is fully hidden because of shrubbery and a perfect place to nab somebody.

 

[palaminodee]

This makes me wonder how often Elizabeth had been to the lake. If she had been riding there on a regular basis, someone knowledgeable of that fact might have seen the two girls headed that way and driven down there quickly to lay in wait. Ugh.

exactly, it very much changes the probabilities of this case! If the girls were going there often enough, they easily could have been targeted by who knows? and it may have nothing to do with the family history.

I realize that this was always a possibility, but it could be more likely?

 

[callyn]

There's one thing about this scenario that doesn't work for me. If they were accosted by someone on the path, why would that person do it in the double fence area. It seems to me that it would be much easier to call out to the girls and get control of them without having to leave their bikes in the double fence area ... that is, why not do this where there was only one fence?

Perhaps because there was no time to do it in the perfect spot. This would have had to happen fast. No time to move to a better place.
No time to plan, just do it. He wasn't there to abduct someone probably, just there doing whatever, hanging out.

Crime of opportunity definition: A crime of opportunity is a crime that is committed without planning when the perpetrator sees s/he has the chance to commit the act at that moment and seizes it. MOO:moo:

 

[katydid23]

Judge J. replays again in one hour here in California. It may replay in other states as well.

 

[Sunlight]

I hope they've really searched the forest around there (including down to Gilbertville) and not been so focused on the drug stuff that they can't see the forest for the trees. Makes me uncomfortable.

 

[callyn]

BBM...You could park a vehicle in those woods, out of view from the trail and from the road, 50 ft from the trail. The problem is that there would be an 8ft fence between you and the trail, and dense-ish woods to traverse if you wanted to circumvent that fence.

Thanks Ollipop. How far up/down the trail would a person have to go before the fence ends so that they could get to a vehicle without climbing the fence? I am very confused about the layout I'm afraid.

Maybe the vehicle not hidden in the woods, just parked nearby or as near as possible.

 

[Ollipop]

And why, if I'm understanding this correctly, is there confusion about the girls going to the lake (between Aunt T and Gma) at this point? By now, have they not discussed it amongst themselves? (I seriously don't understand that. No snark. Pure confusion.)

Yes, that is very strange. I'm wondering if gramma isn't trying to save a little face with her babysitting technique. I feel horrible saying it, tho. There have been times when my wife has asked me what time I put the kids to bed and I told her "10pm sharp." But the reality is that I let em stay up till 11 that night because I was distracted and I'm weak when they beg me. Of course, I don't want my wife to realize I crack so easily to the pressure of a 4yr old. Maybe gramma didn't want to appear to not really know much about what the girls do when they leave the house.

I agreed when someone earlier mentioned that maybe the girls had secrets that they told Aunt Tammy. Or maybe Aunt Tammy's own daughter had spilled the beans at some point to her, but Tammy hadn't mentioned it to gramma.

I should note that my wife spoke to Drew's brother today, who said that Drew doesn't watch the news or follow any of the rumors. Who knows if the family has had opportunity to review what each has said to the press? Hard to believe otherwise, tho. As an aside, to show how prevalent the rumors are, Drew's brother told my wife that he was the one who told Drew that Dan's co-defendant (JS) turned up dead in some pond - a rumor that was completely untrue AFAIK. This was just today. The brother that spoke to my wife doesn't have internet, so he is passing an old, false rumor to the family, that apparently isn't keeping current by watching TV news. There is obviously a disconnect somewhere in this family, if not in many places.

There's one thing about this scenario that doesn't work for me. If they were accosted by someone on the path, why would that person do it in the double fence area. It seems to me that it would be much easier to call out to the girls and get control of them without having to leave their bikes in the double fence area ... that is, why not do this where there was only one fence?

That double-fence area is the only spot on the trail where you could really hope to not be seen from the parking area or the neighborhood. It's about the best spot to do it, because it would be very difficult to turn a bike around there without getting off. You could stop a biker just by standing in the trail and taking up space. They could then be led around the fence and thru the woods to a waiting vehicle, that would also be hidden from view. It doesn't answer the purse/bag placement, tho, unless they just dropped the purse by the car. I don't think we have precise clarification as to where the purse was found exactly, but apparently it was far enough off the trail that TG didn't see it.

 

[cluciano63]

If someone put their bikes where they were found, are we assuming they were wearing gloves? Left no prints? No DNA? Should have left something behind handling two bikes in hot weather.

 

[Sunlight]

I live in a rural area and some years ago I lost my dog one time for a month. There was a 400 acre greenbelt behind my house, and it was like searching for a needle in a haystack. She showed up two houses down lying on somebody's lawn...thin, but okay. I have no idea where she was for that month.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I think, and someone correct me if I am wrong, that locals like Ollie have said that it was the only place that is fully hidden because of shrubbery and a perfect place to nab somebody.

DM himself cleared it up for us.

"The area where the bikes were found is fenced on both sides, and it is right where maintenance gate is it is a spot that looks to me like a trap," Dan Morrissey said. "Somebody could have just come along right then or followed them down it would have been the worst spot to be in right there."

:maddening: