IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #9

[Ollipop]

This makes me wonder how often Elizabeth had been to the lake. If she had been riding there on a regular basis, someone knowledgeable of that fact might have seen the two girls headed that way and driven down there quickly to lay in wait. Ugh.

Often enough for the Carpenter's to feel that they knew her.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Often enough for the Carpenter's to feel that they knew her.

Robert Carpenter who lives approximately 1.5 miles from the Collins house at 166 Brovan Rd, at an address in the 1000 block of Lake Avenue. He is quoted as saying said "We see them practically all the time ride their bikes right past our house”. He also saw them that day but is unclear as to the time.

 

[otto]

That double-fence area is the only spot on the trail where you could really hope to not be seen from the parking area or the neighborhood. It's about the best spot to do it, because it would be very difficult to turn a bike around there without getting off. You could stop a biker just by standing in the trail and taking up space. They could then be led around the fence and thru the woods to a waiting vehicle, that would also be hidden from view. It doesn't answer the purse/bag placement, tho, unless they just dropped the purse by the car. I don't think we have precise clarification as to where the purse was found exactly, but apparently it was far enough off the trail that TG didn't see it.

I'm wondering how long it would take to stop the two girls and force them to walk between the two fences to the end of the fence. Wouldn't there be a risk of running into someone, like the cyclist, on the trail? It seems like a popular trail and recreation area, so why risk running into someone while controlling the girls and walking between the two fences until the end of one of the fences? What's to stop one of the girls from making a run for it as soon as she gets to the end of the double fence area? Why not accost them at the beginning of the double fence area and force them into the treed area?

 

[Sunlight]

Yes, that is very strange. I'm wondering if gramma isn't trying to save a little face with her babysitting technique. I feel horrible saying it, tho. There have been times when my wife has asked me what time I put the kids to bed and I told her "10pm sharp." But the reality is that I let em stay up till 11 that night because I was distracted and I'm weak when they beg me. Of course, I don't want my wife to realize I crack so easily to the pressure of a 4yr old. Maybe gramma didn't want to appear to not really know much about what the girls do when they leave the house.

I agreed when someone earlier mentioned that maybe the girls had secrets that they told Aunt Tammy. Or maybe Aunt Tammy's own daughter had spilled the beans at some point to her, but Tammy hadn't mentioned it to gramma.

I should note that my wife spoke to Drew's brother today, who said that Drew doesn't watch the news or follow any of the rumors. Who knows if the family has had opportunity to review what each has said to the press? Hard to believe otherwise, tho. As an aside, to show how prevalent the rumors are, Drew's brother told my wife that he was the one who told Drew that Dan's co-defendant (JS) turned up dead in some pond - a rumor that was completely untrue AFAIK. This was just today. The brother that spoke to my wife doesn't have internet, so he is passing an old, false rumor to the family, that apparently isn't keeping current by watching TV news. There is obviously a disconnect somewhere in this family, if not in many places.



That double-fence area is the only spot on the trail where you could really hope to not be seen from the parking area or the neighborhood. It's about the best spot to do it, because it would be very difficult to turn a bike around there without getting off. You could stop a biker just by standing in the trail and taking up space. They could then be led around the fence and thru the woods to a waiting vehicle, that would also be hidden from view. It doesn't answer the purse/bag placement, tho, unless they just dropped the purse by the car. I don't think we have precise clarification as to where the purse was found exactly, but apparently it was far enough off the trail that TG didn't see it.

So, is it just a section of a continuous trail that is narrow at that point with fencing on both sides and then opens up and goes on? In other words, there is no end to that area where you have to turn around?

 

[Ollipop]

Thanks Ollipop. How far up/down the trail would a person have to go before the fence ends so that they could get to a vehicle without climbing the fence? I am very confused about the layout I'm afraid.

Maybe the vehicle not hidden in the woods, just parked nearby or as near as possible.

I'll have to dig back to my pics...I believe I documented it quite well.

Since I don't know exactly where the bikes were found, I can't say how far. I can say that I walked off the secluded area, and it was 210 paces total, from where the fences are right up to the trail on both sides until the inside fence terminates. The westernmost 1/4 of that stretch is visible from across the lake, tho. The spot where the fence ends is also barely visible from Arbutus Ave. But from either of those possible viewing spots, you'd sort of have to be looking to see something: across a lake or from a block away into a wooded corner.

 

[Jules71]

Thanks Ollipop. How far up/down the trail would a person have to go before the fence ends so that they could get to a vehicle without climbing the fence? I am very confused about the layout I'm afraid.

Maybe the vehicle not hidden in the woods, just parked nearby or as near as possible.

callyn -
Click on my picture below. You will see the fence highlighted in yellow.

The red dots indicate where I believe the unlocked gate to be and where the bikes/purse were found.

 

[Snufamonbobball]

If the girls were in an area that is usually locked, I think it's possible that someone could walk up and say something like- You girls are in big trouble, you're not supposed to be here, you're going to need to come with me and we're going to need to go to the police station- that is a ruse that could easily work with a child. Just a thought of how to get two children out of a park together, and seemingly willing.

 

[epiphany]

Who said anything about guns? Uh-oh. The statement analysis folks will be all over that... :moo:

IMO, there's simply too much inserting, interjecting and extrapolating by Aunt T.

And it alters public's perception-not always in a positive way.

 

[Sunlight]

If the girls were in an area that is usually locked, I think it's possible that someone could walk up and say something like- You girls are in big trouble, you're not supposed to be here, you're going to need to come with me and we're going to need to go to the police station- that is a ruse that could easily work with a child. Just a thought of how to get two children out of a park together, and seemingly willing.

That happened to me when I was little with a friend...and it was the police...and we got right into the car...and they drove us home, but they did discuss with each other whether to take us to the station or take us home.

 

[katydid23]

I'm wondering how long it would take to stop the two girls and force them to walk between the two fences to the end of the fence. Wouldn't there be a risk of running into someone, like the cyclist, on the trail? It seems like a popular trail and recreation area, so why risk running into someone while controlling the girls and walking between the two fences until the end of one of the fences? What's to stop one of the girls from making a run for it as soon as she gets to the end of the double fence area? Why not accost them at the beginning of the double fence area and force them into the treed area?

Locals have said that they usually come upon 2 to 4 others while walking around the entire lake. So if you only had to walk a small portion, you would not likely come across anyone else.

And it is easy to subdue two young kids. You put a sharp knife or gun to the back of one kids neck, and the other will follow silently along. Even if you do run across another hiker or cyclist, you can scare the kids into submission with a weapon.

he only had to make it to his vehicle which would be mere feet away, imo.

 

[Ollipop]

I'm wondering how long it would take to stop the two girls and force them to walk between the two fences to the end of the fence. Wouldn't there be a risk of running into someone, like the cyclist, on the trail? It seems like a popular trail and recreation area, so why risk running into someone while controlling the girls and walking between the two fences until the end of one of the fences? What's to stop one of the girls from making a run for it as soon as she gets to the end of the double fence area? Why not accost them at the beginning of the double fence area and force them into the treed area?

Yup...it could take several seconds. When I walk thru there with my kids we always stay to the right, because at any minute a bike could come whizzing around that corner. But then, in the heat of the moment, this may not have been considered. Or perhaps they were lured back around the fence and into the woods by someone they knew or something they were curious about, like puppies or cold drinks.

 

[callyn]

I'll have to dig back to my pics...I believe I documented it quite well.

Since I don't know exactly where the bikes were found, I can't say how far. I can say that I walked off the secluded area, and it was 210 paces total, from where the fences are right up to the trail on both sides until the inside fence terminates. The westernmost 1/4 of that stretch is visible from across the lake, tho. The spot where the fence ends is also barely visible from Arbutus Ave. But from either of those possible viewing spots, you'd sort of have to be looking to see something: across a lake or from a block away into a wooded corner.

Thanks again! In my scenario this perp isn't really trying to hide, he's just 'doing it'. Like a lot of these sudden grabs by opportunists, no one happens to see it happen. So if he could get them to a vehicle in a reasonable distance then that works for me. I'll go look back at your excellent photos again.

 

[otto]

callyn -
Click on my picture below. You will see the fence highlighted in yellow.

The red dots indicate where I believe the unlocked gate to be and where the bikes/purse were found.

View attachment 25105

Thanks for the illustration. That, together with knowing it's 210 paces, again makes me wonder why someone would choose the double fence area to accost the children. It seems like someone would take a huge risk of running into someone on the trail while forcing the children to walk to the an area where they could be taken off the path. It would be just as easy to stop them at the beginning of the double fence area and there would be far less risk of running into a cyclist on the trail.

 

[Athena12]

exactly, it very much changes the probabilities of this case! If the girls were going there often enough, they easily could have been targeted by who knows? and it may have nothing to do with the family history.

I realize that this was always a possibility, but it could be more likely?

I've been hoping this is just some crazy scheme cooked up by the family, & the girls are hidden somewhere safely...but after hearing this new information, I have a sick feeling that they were abducted by someone who either lives close to the lake or spends a lot of time there and had seen the girls there before. :frown: MOO

 

[winterrose]

I'm wondering how long it would take to stop the two girls and force them to walk between the two fences to the end of the fence. Wouldn't there be a risk of running into someone, like the cyclist, on the trail? It seems like a popular trail and recreation area, so why risk running into someone while controlling the girls and walking between the two fences until the end of one of the fences? What's to stop one of the girls from making a run for it as soon as she gets to the end of the double fence area? Why not accost them at the beginning of the double fence area and force them into the treed area?

I was going to say it would have to be more than one person to control them, then I remembered the Lisk girls. He controlled them, I imagine by using fear of hurting the other one, probably had a weapon. But in this case, it seems like the bikes thrown down and not on kickstands, seems to me they could have taken off running. If so, it would have to be more than one person to catch them and gain control.

 

[Jules71]

Thanks for the illustration. That, together with knowing it's 210 paces, again makes me wonder why someone would choose the double fence area to accost the children. It seems like someone would take a huge risk of running into someone on the trail while forcing the children to walk to the an area where they could be taken off the path. It would be just as easy to stop them at the beginning of the double fence area and there would be far less risk of running into a cyclist on the trail.

I completely agree with you about that. It would make sense to wait until they were near the very easternmost part of the fence and take them thru the woods. It would be awkward if they did come across someone else on the path while they were walking out of there with the girls and leaving the bikes behind.

If the girls rode their bikes there, I almost feel it is more likely they opened the gate and went to the edge of the water - and either got on a paddle boat or made their way along the lake side of the fence to the shore at the wooded area.

 

[katydid23]

Thanks for the illustration. That, together with knowing it's 210 paces, again makes me wonder why someone would choose the double fence area to accost the children. It seems like someone would take a huge risk of running into someone on the trail while forcing the children to walk to the an area where they could be taken off the path. It would be just as easy to stop them at the beginning of the double fence area and there would be far less risk of running into a cyclist on the trail.

I see your point. I have wondered if the perp might have convinced the girls to drop their bikes and meet him somewhere nearby for some alluring reason. Like leave your bikes here and let's go over here to the dock...especially if he was a 'friend' and they trusted him for some reason. he may have been hiding in those shrubs when he got them to stop quickly right there.

 

[nikb]

It is just speculation on my part, but she did correct Grandma on the air tonight about the girls not ever going to that lake. So she apparently knew about it herself already, so why didn't Grandma know?
<snipped for space>

Maybe it was a "secret" between the Aunt and one or both Niece(s)? I'm trying to think of a better word because "secret" implies a negative and that's not what I mean. You know, one of those bonding things? "shhh don't tell Gramma but we found this super cool lake/bike trail!" Or "we met this boy..." (though they do seem a bit young for that). They "confided" in their Aunt and if she felt there wasn't a reason to be nervous about the ride/trail in such a small town environment, she didn't feel the need to break the girls' confidence and say anything?

I don't have personal experience as a parent but I've heard this can be a good thing and healthy. If the kid has someone they know they can confide in and talk to about stuff they're maybe not so sure about telling their parents, even GREAT parents, they might also confide in that person about much bigger stuff later. At 8 or 10 it might be admitting to sneaking off to the lake, at 12 it might be "this boy wants to kiss me." If the kid trusts someone in the family to talk to IMO that's a good thing, and it'd take something pretty serious to make it worth breaking their trust and telling Mom/Dad/Gramma/whoever. Obviously possible/likely abduction counts as serious and then all bets are off IMO. Maybe that's why Aunt T. is now talking about it?

I'm not a parent but as a real life example, just to explain what I mean in terms of it being sort of an "innocent secret." I knew my neighbors' son had a "girlfriend" before they did because we went to the fair with our neighbors and the son pulled me aside to ask for advice about buying a girl a gift. He wanted to get her something nice (as you're going to find at the fair ) that he could afford. He wanted to make sure it wasn't cheesy, TOO nice and might scare her off, but nice enough that she might kiss him. Maybe even <gasp> on the lips. The kids were both around 12-13 so definitely at an age where lots of first "on the lips" kisses or first serious crushes happen and I'd even seen the girl before when they walked past our house - it was obvious she liked him. I didn't think it was anything bad, but he begged me not to tell his parents because he was afraid they'd think he was too young and wouldn't let him talk to her. He also also wanted to make sure she was "the one" before he introduced her to them... lol I just now remembered that and how cute it was. Funny thing is his parents aren't super conservative and his Dad probably would've high-fived him for liking this girl, but for whatever reason the son just felt more comfortable talking to me about it.

I don't talk to him regularly but over the last 8 years (holy crap I feel old), every so often he's confided in me or asked my advice about things and I know that likely wouldn't have happened if I'd told his parents about the girl/gift when he was younger. In his high school years I'd like to think I steered him away from a few bad situations... even some situations he KNEW were bad but he didn't quite know how to get out of, wasn't comfortable talking to his parents about it, and I hope/think the advice helped. He has great parents, it's just one of those things. IMO it's good for a kid to have someone they can confide in as long as that person has their best interests at heart (parent, relative... the best interests is the most important!). The fuzzy part is when does that person need to stay the confidante and when do they need to talk to the parents, IMO and all just my personal experience.

OK sorry that story got really long.

 

[MotherOcean]

That double-fence area is the only spot on the trail where you could really hope to not be seen from the parking area or the neighborhood. It's about the best spot to do it, because it would be very difficult to turn a bike around there without getting off. You could stop a biker just by standing in the trail and taking up space. They could then be led around the fence and thru the woods to a waiting vehicle, that would also be hidden from view. It doesn't answer the purse/bag placement, tho, unless they just dropped the purse by the car. I don't think we have precise clarification as to where the purse was found exactly, but apparently it was far enough off the trail that TG didn't see it.

BBM -

snip -

4 p.m. - The girls' bikes are located along the bike trail on the southeast corner of Meyers Lake by an Evansdale firefighter. Elizabeth's purse, which contained a cell phone, was found nearby.

snip -

The purse was on the lake-side of the fence, about 10 feet to the east of the bikes and about 2 feet from the fence, officials said.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/up...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[Marilynilpa]

Maybe it was a "secret" between the Aunt and one or both Niece(s)? I'm trying to think of a better word because "secret" implies a negative and that's not what I mean. You know, one of those bonding things? "shhh don't tell Gramma but we found this super cool lake/bike trail!" Or "we met this boy..." (though they do seem a bit young for that). They "confided" in their Aunt and if she felt there wasn't a reason to be nervous about the ride/trail in such a small town environment, she didn't feel the need to break the girls' confidence and say anything?

I don't have personal experience as a parent but I've heard this can be a good thing and healthy. If the kid has someone they know they can confide in and talk to about stuff they're maybe not so sure about telling their parents, even GREAT parents, they might also confide in that person about much bigger stuff later. At 8 or 10 it might be admitting to sneaking off to the lake, at 12 it might be "this boy wants to kiss me." If the kid trusts someone in the family to talk to IMO that's a good thing, and it'd take something pretty serious to make it worth breaking their trust and telling Mom/Dad/Gramma/whoever. Obviously possible/likely abduction counts as serious and then all bets are off IMO. Maybe that's why Aunt T. is now talking about it?

I'm not a parent but as a real life example, just to explain what I mean in terms of it being sort of an "innocent secret." I knew my neighbors' son had a "girlfriend" before they did because we went to the fair with our neighbors and the son pulled me aside to ask for advice about buying a girl a gift. He wanted to get her something nice (as you're going to find at the fair ) that he could afford. He wanted to make sure it wasn't cheesy, TOO nice and might scare her off, but nice enough that she might kiss him. Maybe even <gasp> on the lips. The kids were both around 12-13 so definitely at an age where lots of first "on the lips" kisses or first serious crushes happen and I'd even seen the girl before when they walked past our house - it was obvious she liked him. I didn't think it was anything bad, but he begged me not to tell his parents because he was afraid they'd think he was too young and wouldn't let him talk to her. He also also wanted to make sure she was "the one" before he introduced her to them... lol I just now remembered that and how cute it was. Funny thing is his parents aren't super conservative and his Dad probably would've high-fived him for liking this girl, but for whatever reason the son just felt more comfortable talking to me about it.

I don't talk to him regularly but over the last 8 years (holy crap I feel old), every so often he's confided in me or asked my advice about things and I know that likely wouldn't have happened if I'd told his parents about the girl/gift when he was younger. In his high school years I'd like to think I steered him away from a few bad situations... even some situations he KNEW were bad but he didn't quite know how to get out of, wasn't comfortable talking to his parents about it, and I hope/think the advice helped. He has great parents, it's just one of those things. IMO it's good for a kid to have someone they can confide in as long as that person has their best interests at heart (parent, relative... the best interests is the most important!). The fuzzy part is when does that person need to stay the confidante and when do they need to talk to the parents, IMO and all just my personal experience.

OK sorry that story got really long.

Regarding the "secrets" with Aunt Tammy, I posted the same thing earlier. Now that I've heard the the girls may have been to the lake before, I feel even stronger that Aunt Tammy knew what the girls had been up to. That's why she focused on the lake when she learned the girls were missing. IMO