ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 36

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annpats said:
Great post. I've snipped it for emphasis on your final point, as I agree with you that these killings had nothing to do with anything that happened previously that night, and that the hatred for the students had been brewing for a long while.

My only belief is that whoever hated them that much didn't do the killing themselves. They got someone in who was capable of doing a swift, silent job without making mistakes.

MOO.
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Why would that person use a knife instead of a gun though?.
 
Balthazar said:
Criminal profiling is known to be at least 66% accurate. Not perfect by any means, yet better than nothing.
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Is there a source for that? I see it quoted a couple places but not sure what that number actually means. (thanks in advance)
It's in a psychology today article I quoted:
"Is Criminal Profiling Dead? Should It Be?
"Results of the famous “Coals to Newcastle” study found that the predictions made by profilers were accurate about 66% of the time. However, the profiles led to an arrest in just 5 of the 184 cases. In other words, there was just a 2.7% success rate when the profiles were applied out in the field."

And then is repeated verbatim in Wiki without quotes.

Here is the Gary Copson study, 'Coals to New Castle Part 1" mentioned in article but the 66% accuracy number doesn't seem to reflect confidence in the abilities:
https://www.politieacademie.nl/kennisenonderzoek/kennis/mediatheek/PDF/3974.pdf

Anyhow we'll see how this turns out, personally I think forensic/digital evidence based on statistical probability will crack the case vs. profiling. ALL MOO
 
I don't post much but am following. Currently my working theory is a) someone known to the friend group with a grudge or b) one of the four was the primary target and the other deaths were collateral damage.

In last place is c) random psycho killer that just decided to go kill four strangers one night.
 
10ofRods said:
Interesting change in the template for the Daily MPD update. I have been checking daily for any editorial changes and now it's happened. Here is 12-20:


It's much shorter than any previous day's update and language that was in most of the previous updates is gone. Here's 12-19 as an example:



Now, this could be just a fluke, but I doubt it. Some of us were discussing the "re-interviewing" process and the fact that Mrs G mentioned that some people were cleared too early (SG mentioned it as well). We discussed it briefly a couple of threads ago that if MPD wanted to walk back some of the "clearings," it would have to remove all of the people they listed, otherwise it would be obvious which person was being put back into the pool of possible POI's.

No one was cleared, the language was "not believed to be involved at this time." (emphasis mine),

Now the update/daily statement leaves off that whole section, with no mention of anyone "not believed to be involved."

Again, could just be a fluke, but I am guessing that as they have interviewed over 200 people, LE's picture of what happened is much sharper. A is mentioned as cooperating, btw.

I also believe it's an open question as to where everyone started out sleeping on Nov 12, in that house, as well as how many people might have been there during that evening. While it is true that *one* reporter "confirmed with police" where people were sleeping - how was it even known back then? That was the first week of this investigation. That was before we all saw the 9-1 body cam video (and I doubt that MPD personnel remembered to review that video back in Week 1).

So there's movement in this case. Maybe tomorrow the "not believed to be involved" list will be back.
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If you look to the beginning it's a video of one of Fry's updates. Everything that was bullet pointed is what he said in the video. Could this be why the template looks different?.

On their homepage it still has all the same info.
 
annpats said:
Great post. I've snipped it for emphasis on your final point, as I agree with you that these killings had nothing to do with anything that happened previously that night, and that the hatred for the students had been brewing for a long while.

My only belief is that whoever hated them that much didn't do the killing themselves. They got someone in who was capable of doing a swift, silent job without making mistakes.

MOO.
Click to expand...
I am also thinking this is a mass murderer. To me, this person has the potential of becoming a serial killer if he enjoyed what he did (RIP to those poor kids!). I just don't see this being a "hit," per se. I would imagine it would cost a lot of money to hire a hitman to kill one person, let alone four.
 
10ofRods said:
Interesting change in the template for the Daily MPD update. I have been checking daily for any editorial changes and now it's happened. Here is 12-20:


It's much shorter than any previous day's update and language that was in most of the previous updates is gone. Here's 12-19 as an example:



Now, this could be just a fluke, but I doubt it. Some of us were discussing the "re-interviewing" process and the fact that Mrs G mentioned that some people were cleared too early (SG mentioned it as well). We discussed it briefly a couple of threads ago that if MPD wanted to walk back some of the "clearings," it would have to remove all of the people they listed, otherwise it would be obvious which person was being put back into the pool of possible POI's.

No one was cleared, the language was "not believed to be involved at this time." (emphasis mine),

Now the update/daily statement leaves off that whole section, with no mention of anyone "not believed to be involved."

Again, could just be a fluke, but I am guessing that as they have interviewed over 200 people, LE's picture of what happened is much sharper. A is mentioned as cooperating, btw.

I also believe it's an open question as to where everyone started out sleeping on Nov 12, in that house, as well as how many people might have been there during that evening. While it is true that *one* reporter "confirmed with police" where people were sleeping - how was it even known back then? That was the first week of this investigation. That was before we all saw the 9-1 body cam video (and I doubt that MPD personnel remembered to review that video back in Week 1).

So there's movement in this case. Maybe tomorrow the "not believed to be involved" list will be back.
Click to expand...
Just checked the FAQ section of the website and they still have the list in that section. Also the other site they link to doesnt have 12-20 update on it yet. It will be interesting to see if more changes occur and that list does indeed disappear or get altered.
 
maskedwoman said:
After catching up this morning, I'm struggling with how some posters use the rage killing. Some of us seem to mean that something happened earlier in the evening and it enraged this person so much they stalked them back home, waited an extended period of time until the house quieted down, then entered intending to to kill everyone in the house.

To me that's cold and calculating. Someone in a true rage couldn't possibly remain inactive for that long. Legally, a crime of passion is one that occurs during the "heat of passion" or as a fairly immediate response to a provocation. Just like road rage is an immediate reaction to something that happens to you on the road. I also think someone in a rage would have a hard time sustaining that rage during the time required to kill 4 people on two different levels of the house. That took a lot of physical work and IMO would have burned through the rage.

This person isn't a serial killer, so far as we know, because being a serial killer means you have killed on multiple occasions, and we have no evidence of that thus far. A spree killer means the murderer killed multiple people at more than one location. No current evidence of this either.

It does fits the legal definition of a mass murder, which is killing 4 or more people in the same location during a single period of time. Mass murderer is a very jarring term, but it does seem to be correct.

I did some reading this morning and found that mass murderers often operate off hatred rather than rage. Hatred against a group that mistreated them, that they disapprove of in general, or a group that excluded them. Hitler hated Jews. The Walmart manager hated his employees. Dylan Roof hated black people. There are other motivations, for sure, but they all seemed to be deeply rooted motivations that allowed for planning rather than impulsive actions. I watched an American Monster episode where a woman left her husband and weeks later he killed her mother and grandparents, and shot her brother 12 times. His motivation was to punish her for leaving him. He didn't shoot her. He wanted her to suffer the loss of everyone she loved.

The more I think about it, the less it makes sense to me that the killer came to kill one and the others were any sort of collateral damage. Why not just choose a different time and place rather than risk one person getting away and raising the alarm? I agree there had to be an inciting event, but I don't think this was a crime of passion. To me, at least so far, it seems more like other mass murders, where the killer has an issue with the group as a whole.

Thanks for reading. :)
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I agree. I think this guy is more like a school shooter personality. He is not accepted by his peers, has been humiliated or rejected and wants the group that he hates to pay for it. He may have been observing this house from the outside (a neighbor?) or attended a party and was rejected there. I think it is more likely he's not a college student/graduate. He is looking in from the outside on a life he can't have (?). Maybe spends a lot of time alone hunting and has become skilled with large knives?
 
Allabouttrial said:
Also if you check out the video in this link. It's all the girl's messing around in the house. You can kind of get a sense of the acoustics.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Final videos show Idaho students in house where they died

The videos were filmed inside their shared home in Moscow, where a killer stabbed three of the five roommates in the home to death and also killed one of the girls' boyfriends on November 13.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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If that video of these girls just having fun makes me smile and feel the loss too.
PrairieWind said:
That place is definitely a LOT nicer than most of the places I lived in during college! lol
Click to expand...

It is nice, but not expensive
At 3000/ month that @ $500 per renter. That is very fair- each share a bathroom with one person, shared kitchen, laundry room, fenced yard, walking distance from campus, plenty of parking.
If it is creaky and ’old’ such that it would make noises- that would be informative, but it doesn’t look ‘old’ like I’m thinking of a house that creeks with wooden floors that is 80+ years old. This looks like it was built in the 1970’s or later and had been maintained well and updated?

JMO
 
Allabouttrial said:
Why would that person use a knife instead of a gun though?.
Click to expand...
This obviously wouldn't apply to a hired gun (!), but I've been thinking the reason for using the knife could have been as simple as the perp never having shot a gun before. I know guns are everywhere in the US, but there's probably still quite a few people who know nothing about loading and using a gun.
 
Missyrocks5 said:
Based on what they’ve said in the last couple interviews, I think they know who it is. I think they’re trying to find him. The expansion of the FBI across the country etc. makes me think so. It may be that that is just for looking for the vehicle, but I’m hoping it’s to go find him. I hope it won’t be too difficult and that someone is not hiding him. Otherwise, it’s freezing cold out. You can’t go camping, etc.

And if that’s true, then it probably is not any of the people everyone has talked about that is local. All those people presumably are with their friends and family. I’m hoping that they are going to look at friends and relatives of who their suspect is across the country and over the Canadian border too I would expect. I hope they find the car and can get this monster off the street.
Click to expand...

I’m not thinking PD knows who it is, but I do think it Is someone that has not been a focus and will be a surprise to all of us.
How tough it is to speculate about those traveling out of town- over the holidays- from and to a college town!
The timing of these murders prior to Thanksgiving has proved quite beneficial to the perp.

JMO
 
annpats said:
Great post. I've snipped it for emphasis on your final point, as I agree with you that these killings had nothing to do with anything that happened previously that night, and that the hatred for the students had been brewing for a long while.

My only belief is that whoever hated them that much didn't do the killing themselves. They got someone in who was capable of doing a swift, silent job without making mistakes.

MOO.
Click to expand...
MOO.. Both living in and visiting these types of off campus houses; my body and sleep adapted to all sorts of noise. I was able to sleep through so much. I would find out the next day all that I missed, especially after a night of drinking. I was used to hearing all kinds of people in & out, up & down all night. People banging into things, things getting knocked over and broken. If I heard it, I just went back to sleep. Most of the time I'd wake up to see the chaos of when my roommates and their friends finally got home from their parties. Our friends knew how to get into the house if they needed a couch to crash on. So it wouldn't be ab normal to hear everyone come home and then hear someone else show up an hr or so later.
MOO, if the other 2 roommates did hear things, they would just assume that their roommates and/or friends had a great time out partying. They wouldn't realize it was something horrific like their roommates being brutally murdered; their minds wouldn't go there. That being said, I don't believe this person would have to be that quiet to not draw attention.
 
Counttrarian said:
Is there a source for that? I see it quoted a couple places but not sure what that number actually means. (thanks in advance)
It's in a psychology today article I quoted:
"Is Criminal Profiling Dead? Should It Be?
"Results of the famous “Coals to Newcastle” study found that the predictions made by profilers were accurate about 66% of the time. However, the profiles led to an arrest in just 5 of the 184 cases. In other words, there was just a 2.7% success rate when the profiles were applied out in the field."

And then is repeated verbatim in Wiki without quotes.

Here is the Gary Copson study, 'Coals to New Castle Part 1" mentioned in article but the 66% accuracy number doesn't seem to reflect confidence in the abilities:
https://www.politieacademie.nl/kennisenonderzoek/kennis/mediatheek/PDF/3974.pdf

Anyhow we'll see how this turns out, personally I think forensic/digital evidence based on statistical probability will crack the case vs. profiling. ALL MOO
Click to expand...
You appear to have found the source yourself: Coals to Newcastle.
 
Balthazar said:
Criminal profiling is known to be at least 66% accurate. Not perfect by any means, yet better than nothing.
Click to expand...
The problem with releasing profiles is, that people may discount information they have, because it does not fit the profile. The same thing happens with sketches. People may discount someone they know could be involved with a crime, because they do not look like the sketch. Imo.
 
Catz said:
Just checked the FAQ section of the website and they still have the list in that section. Also the other site they link to doesnt have 12-20 update on it yet. It will be interesting to see if more changes occur and that list does indeed disappear or get altered.
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Correct. FAQ also has Rumor Control, which is also dropped from the 12-20 release.
 
About the 113 items of evidence collected.

I believe that most PD's use the "physical evidence" room to collect what they define as physical evidence. Biological and other kinds of evidence (digital, many other categories) are not taken to the physical evidence room.

Potential biological evidence is treated differently too (at least two categories). Swabs and other items that need to be sent directly to a lab for blood analysis are treated differently than swabs taken in other contexts.

There are sealed forensic vacuums that are designed to lift up potential evidence that's invisible and those are treated differently, too (sent to the PD's regular crime lab, usually, but in a different manner than swabs). The forensic vacuum material typically needs to be sorted into many different categories (DNA-bearing divided by type of material; fibers; hair; etc).

Catz said:
Just checked the FAQ section of the website and they still have the list in that section. Also the other site they link to doesnt have 12-20 update on it yet. It will be interesting to see if more changes occur and that list does indeed disappear or get altered.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. I wouldn't expect them to go back and edit the FAQ immediately, just thought it was interesting that they're no longer including that information on their updates. Today's update, if any, will be interesting.

I imagine their webmaster has their hands full these days. Next week's updates should make things clearer, if they intend to quit publicizing the "not believed to be involved at this time" list.
 
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