Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #125

[Silver_produce0]

Respectfully snipped for focus and commentary response.
Yes. He didn't just take them to a random spot; it was chosen ahead of time. I speculate there is indeed a good possibility he had it staged.

Amateur opinion and speculation

That is even more bizarre. Maybe that’s why they seem convinced that he is local. Wonder if any of the people that the evidence pointed toward could be linked somehow. It could be that the same guy fills their propane tanks, they bought cars from the same dealership, went to the same dentist...

 

[stattlich1]

Respectfully snipped for focus and commentary response.
Yes. He didn't just take them to a random spot; it was chosen ahead of time. I speculate there is indeed a good possibility he had it staged.

Amateur opinion and speculation

It appears so, that he had it staged.

In addition, it appears he may have even staged things so as to implicate one or two people, by virtue of leaving evidence at the scene that may have pointed LE toward these 'other' potential suspects.

Could this be the reason for the wording at the presser, something to the effect of 'you never thought we would change investigative strategy'. Might LE have finally become wise to the killers attempt to throw them off?

Might the killer have dressed in disguise so as to resemble someone else, someone who has/had a sordid past, someone who could be framed?

Could it be that LE believes him to be from Delphi, or have worked there, or been born there, or lived there, could this belief be related to intimate knowledge the killer had of those who he wished to set up for the murders? Or possibly that the killer had been able to enter and exit the murder site, undetected, so as to set it all up?

If so, that would be quite some planning. Might it lead one to believe that the killings weren't random? Or perhaps they were, and the true motive was to frame/set up/do damage to someone else, someone in the community who the killer had a grudge against?

Or perhaps, might he, as a SK, use such methodologies as part of his M.O. to escape capture?

Lordy my thinker spins at this stuff.

All speculation, of course.

 

[SMK777]

Could this be the reason for the wording at the presser, something to the effect of 'you never thought we would change investigative strategy'. Might LE have finally become wise to the killers attempt to throw them off?

Very astute observation!

 

[SMK777]

If so, that would be quite some planning. Might it lead one to believe that the killings weren't random?

It’s still possible.

 

[Yemelyan]

As we continue to ponder and debate the various aspects of this case, I thought this Department of Justice (DOJ) Statistical Brief would be useful. Some highlights:

Of female homicide victims age 12-14, the Perp was:
-57% family member
-35% acquaintance
-8% stranger

Source: Victim-offender relationship in juvenile homicides by age of victim, 2009-2018

Amateur opinion and speculation

Just to clarify, though, these statistics are dramatically different when you take into account the circumstances of the crime.

Yes, most child homicide victims are killed by a family member, but those murders mostly occur in the home and sometimes the body is removed later to conceal the crime. When you look at child victims where both the initial contact between killer and victim and the eventual murder site is out on public land, like the Delphi case, that's not usually perpetrated by a family member.

Now let's add the fact that the Delphi killer controlled them through some means and moved them away from the initial contact site on the bridge. That's the definition of abduction. When abduction is part of the crime, the number of child victims killed by a family member goes all the way down to 13.7% of total cases.

Here's the breakdown of statistics in victim-killer relationships when child victims are murdered after abduction (remember the FBI does not define abduction as being taken and brought back, or taken a certain distance...it's simply the matter of the offender controlling the victim's movements for any distance):

Killed by a stranger: 44.4%
Killed by an acquaintance (includes family friend): 41.9%
Killed by an intimate or family member: 13.7%

I got these statistics from the 2016 WSU update to Keppel & Brown, "Child Abduction Murder" which added an additional 125 cases of child murders to the original study's data set.

 

[BigTexas]

I'm just sittin here watchin the wheels go round and round. I really love to watch them roll...

 

[Yemelyan]

And this:


'There was a lot more physical evidence than that at the crime scene,' Ives said. 'And it's probably not what you would imagine, or what people would think I'm talking about.'

'It was just not your normal "a person was killed here" crime scene, that's probably all I can say about it,' Ives said.

BBM. I'm fascinated by that stsatement. What is he talking about?????

Also about "staging":

"However, Ives raised the possibility that elements of the scene had been staged in an attempt to trick investigators by sending them down a false path."

I read this DM article today. It is a 100% word for word retread of Robert Ives' interviews in the Down the Hill and Scene of the Crime podcasts. The author took full quotes from the podcasts and used them without editing at all. This is MOO but I do not believe this was a new interview from Robert Ives to the DM, just a cut and paste job from the podcasts.

Ives does not say anything about the crime scene being staged in his podcast interviews so that line stuck out to me. The DM author does not include an actual quote to support that so I believe it may be creative license on the part of the author.

In the DTH podcast, FBI analyst Mary Ellen O'Toole DOES discuss staging, but only when asked what is the difference between staging the scene and posing the bodies, in the context of crime signatures. There is no information presented to indicate that either staging or posing occurred in the Delphi case, however. So I have to take issue with the veracity of this DM article.

 

[Falling Down]

Or... they didn't see him and suddenly he shows up right behind them coming across the bridge. They would have known there was no way for him to reach the bridge that quickly unless he was hiding in the woods before that.

Something triggered her to video him. He may have been walking too fast/deliberate or like I said showed up way too soon or creeped them out earlier like you suggest.

Good points.

I figure it would have taken him under 6 minutes to cross the bridge.

Just the fact that he got on the bridge and kept coming towards them would have been alarming enough, the trail ends at the NW end of the bridge.

JMO

 

[Justice101]

I want to add. One thing that would interest me is, geographically speaking, where are people calling in tips from. In previous posts (maybe older threads) we discussed that billboards/posters were seen outside Indiana, including on roads leading to military bases. So, hypothetically, if you had 50,000 tips and think he’s local, I would assume a large portion of those tips were from Delphi and surrounding areas. If they weren’t, were they from a specific area? Did a lot of people call in from Florida? California? Virginia? Just my curiousity. I don’t know what kind of metadata they have.

I mean - 50,000 people don’t know BG. So it’s almost like, how do you identify the tips that are definitely not relevant right away before you investigate them?

Here are what I think might be typical tips:
1) "This guy looks like John Doe 1 - he lives at 3333 Evansdale Rd in Camden, IN. He's been acting weirder since the murders."

2) "I live in Delphi and I saw someone that looked a little like the guy on the bridge photo. I saw him in Seven-11 a couple of weeks ago. He weirded me out. But probably not him so if you don't think it could be him, just ignore this tip."

3) "My cousin looks like this. He travels all along the interstates in Indiana and likes to walk trails. Might want to check him out. His name is John Doe 2 and he lives at 5555 Tungsten Ave Clifton, IL"

4) "I had a dream last night and have you looked into people that maintain the trail because someone like that would know the area well?? regardless, good luck. and remember me when the reward comes out"

5) "My neighbor in Jackson, MS looks just like this guy. Dresses like he is stuck in the 80s. he travels a lot but he is 60 years old so maybe not the guy... but better safe than sorry...so check him out."

6) "I have a theory that it looks like there is a hatchet under the guy on the bridge's shirt. I'll bet he was a boy scout. Look at all boy scouts in Delphi that are this age now."

Of those 6... only 2 of the tips are worth pursuing at all.

They probably prioritize and rank the tips from 1 to 5 based on #1 importance and #2 ease in investigating it.

just my 2 cents worth. Most of the 50,000 tip are immediately ranked at the bottom. Theories and whatnot

 

[St. Anthony2017]

Here are what I think might be typical tips:
1) "This guy looks like John Doe 1 - he lives at 3333 Evansdale Rd in Camden, IN. He's been acting weirder since the murders."

2) "I live in Delphi and I saw someone that looked a little like the guy on the bridge photo. I saw him in Seven-11 a couple of weeks ago. He weirded me out. But probably not him so if you don't think it could be him, just ignore this tip."

3) "My cousin looks like this. He travels all along the interstates in Indiana and likes to walk trails. Might want to check him out. His name is John Doe 2 and he lives at 5555 Tungsten Ave Clifton, IL"

4) "I had a dream last night and have you looked into people that maintain the trail because someone like that would know the area well?? regardless, good luck. and remember me when the reward comes out"

5) "My neighbor in Jackson, MS looks just like this guy. Dresses like he is stuck in the 80s. he travels a lot but he is 60 years old so maybe not the guy... but better safe than sorry...so check him out."

6) "I have a theory that it looks like there is a hatchet under the guy on the bridge's shirt. I'll bet he was a boy scout. Look at all boy scouts in Delphi that are this age now."

Of those 6... only 2 of the tips are worth pursuing at all.

They probably prioritize and rank the tips from 1 to 5 based on #1 importance and #2 ease in investigating it.

just my 2 cents worth. Most of the 50,000 tip are immediately ranked at the bottom. Theories and whatnot

I heard in another group that if you get an immediate receipt from the tipline it might mean that they have a file on the person you are giving the tip about and your tip goes in their file. Do you think this is true or is a receipt sent for every tip?

 

[SMK777]

Here are what I think might be typical tips:
1) "This guy looks like John Doe 1 - he lives at 3333 Evansdale Rd in Camden, IN. He's been acting weirder since the murders."

2) "I live in Delphi and I saw someone that looked a little like the guy on the bridge photo. I saw him in Seven-11 a couple of weeks ago. He weirded me out. But probably not him so if you don't think it could be him, just ignore this tip."

3) "My cousin looks like this. He travels all along the interstates in Indiana and likes to walk trails. Might want to check him out. His name is John Doe 2 and he lives at 5555 Tungsten Ave Clifton, IL"

4) "I had a dream last night and have you looked into people that maintain the trail because someone like that would know the area well?? regardless, good luck. and remember me when the reward comes out"

5) "My neighbor in Jackson, MS looks just like this guy. Dresses like he is stuck in the 80s. he travels a lot but he is 60 years old so maybe not the guy... but better safe than sorry...so check him out."

6) "I have a theory that it looks like there is a hatchet under the guy on the bridge's shirt. I'll bet he was a boy scout. Look at all boy scouts in Delphi that are this age now."

Of those 6... only 2 of the tips are worth pursuing at all.

They probably prioritize and rank the tips from 1 to 5 based on #1 importance and #2 ease in investigating it.

just my 2 cents worth. Most of the 50,000 tip are immediately ranked at the bottom. Theories and whatnot

Very interesting. Would it be #s 1 & 3 which would be worth pursuing?

 

[Justice101]

I heard in another group that if you get an immediate receipt from the tipline it might mean that they have a file on the person you are giving the tip about and your tip goes in their file. Do you think this is true or is a receipt sent for every tip?

That is definitely not true.

 

[Justice101]

Very interesting. Would it be #s 1 & 3 which would be worth pursuing?

#2 & #3 in my opinion.

 

[Falling Down]

Here are what I think might be typical tips:
1) "This guy looks like John Doe 1 - he lives at 3333 Evansdale Rd in Camden, IN. He's been acting weirder since the murders."

2) "I live in Delphi and I saw someone that looked a little like the guy on the bridge photo. I saw him in Seven-11 a couple of weeks ago. He weirded me out. But probably not him so if you don't think it could be him, just ignore this tip."

3) "My cousin looks like this. He travels all along the interstates in Indiana and likes to walk trails. Might want to check him out. His name is John Doe 2 and he lives at 5555 Tungsten Ave Clifton, IL"

4) "I had a dream last night and have you looked into people that maintain the trail because someone like that would know the area well?? regardless, good luck. and remember me when the reward comes out"

5) "My neighbor in Jackson, MS looks just like this guy. Dresses like he is stuck in the 80s. he travels a lot but he is 60 years old so maybe not the guy... but better safe than sorry...so check him out."

6) "I have a theory that it looks like there is a hatchet under the guy on the bridge's shirt. I'll bet he was a boy scout. Look at all boy scouts in Delphi that are this age now."

Of those 6... only 2 of the tips are worth pursuing at all.

They probably prioritize and rank the tips from 1 to 5 based on #1 importance and #2 ease in investigating it.

just my 2 cents worth. Most of the 50,000 tip are immediately ranked at the bottom. Theories and whatnot

I especially agree re: the trails/trail tips.

Reason being is not many people before the murders would have known about the bridge, far fewer would have known how to get to it. Also keeping in mind the highway went through in 2014.

BG has spent a considerable amount of time researching the area of the MHB, both online and on foot. How many other places has he lurked, in this region of the Midwest? How long has he been doing it? How often has he walked trails in this region to to recon?

A person or people in his life might notice or have noticed periods of "absence" and put 2+2 together, combined with other "knowns" about him.

Feb. 13th, 2017, was a normal work day for most people in this region of the country. A Monday in mid-Winter. Not a day people would be out fishing or doing much of anything in the outdoors, mainly because of the time of year, despite the relatively mild temps we had for much of that Winter.

Makes me wonder if people in BG's life have lurked here on WS, and possibly other forums.

JMO

 

[St. Anthony2017]

That is definitely not true.

Thanks!

 

[Howcanppldosuch]

Here are what I think might be typical tips:
1) "This guy looks like John Doe 1 - he lives at 3333 Evansdale Rd in Camden, IN. He's been acting weirder since the murders."

2) "I live in Delphi and I saw someone that looked a little like the guy on the bridge photo. I saw him in Seven-11 a couple of weeks ago. He weirded me out. But probably not him so if you don't think it could be him, just ignore this tip."

3) "My cousin looks like this. He travels all along the interstates in Indiana and likes to walk trails. Might want to check him out. His name is John Doe 2 and he lives at 5555 Tungsten Ave Clifton, IL"

4) "I had a dream last night and have you looked into people that maintain the trail because someone like that would know the area well?? regardless, good luck. and remember me when the reward comes out"

5) "My neighbor in Jackson, MS looks just like this guy. Dresses like he is stuck in the 80s. he travels a lot but he is 60 years old so maybe not the guy... but better safe than sorry...so check him out."

6) "I have a theory that it looks like there is a hatchet under the guy on the bridge's shirt. I'll bet he was a boy scout. Look at all boy scouts in Delphi that are this age now."

Of those 6... only 2 of the tips are worth pursuing at all.

They probably prioritize and rank the tips from 1 to 5 based on #1 importance and #2 ease in investigating it.

just my 2 cents worth. Most of the 50,000 tip are immediately ranked at the bottom. Theories and whatnot

When it comes to tips I figure they have to wade thru a high percentage of nonsense. Like my neighbor in Fla is a weirdo. Like I saw the picture and I think it is a woman. Those type things. I bet 80% are nonsense. Heck, I remember a year to two back on this forum someone seriously thought the guy had a pet goat in his jacket.

 

[rosesfromangels]

When it comes to tips I figure they have to wade thru a high percentage of nonsense. Like my neighbor in Fla is a weirdo. Like I saw the picture and I think it is a woman. Those type things. I bet 80% are nonsense. Heck, I remember a year to two back on this forum someone seriously thought the guy had a pet goat in his jacket.

Oh yes, and sadly it really slows LE down. There are plenty of people who get "signs" from the crackling of their rice krispies and songs mysteriously play on the radio with "clues". Stuff like that.

That being said, anyone with a legitimate tip should call it in. A tip is likely what will solve the case. (And forensics)

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Charlot123]

#2 & #3 in my opinion.

The hatchet has been mentioned in articles, so anyone can speak about it. But had it not been, or had Nr 6 mentioned the weapon similar to the real one used, kilt or no kilt, that would be a concerning tip, MOO.

 

[Charlot123]

I just read a news report on a case here in VA. The Heidi Childs/David Metzler murders from 2009. Last year at the 10 year mark, LE had a press conference and as a result starting receiving some tips. Yesterday, LE announced they received 50 tips in the months after that PC and they, Montgomery County Sheriff's, FBI and VA State Police, have been working on those tips all year and stated they've made significant progress. 50 tips. Not thousands or even hundreds. What did the investigators get in Abigail and Liberty's case in the first 2 months here. 15K to 17K in tips? Granted, they had between 100 and 200 personnel on that task force at that time with participation from over 20 agencies. When LE had the 'new direction' press conference last year they received 2,700 new tips.
Police Receive More Than 2,700 New Tips In Delphi Murders Of 2 Girls After Releasing New Suspect Sketch

2.7K in tips with a task force that is much smaller now. That, in addition to about 50K tips prior to that point. I don't care what database software package you are using that is a huge ask of LE to run down tips. Many times when investigators stall on a case they go back over what they have. Having that many tips with a smaller LE group now is a daunting task to go back to the beginning.

I've wondered for some time now if LE doesn't already have a tip on the suspect in those tips. If that does turn out to be the case, maybe, as you indicate, the problem is that there wasn't sufficient detail for LE to run it down.

No human can go through 17K tips without losing his mind. I wonder if AI is applicable. To make an algorithm, break down into “clues”, and let the computer sort through the tips.

 

[rosesfromangels]

No human can go through 17K tips without losing his mind. I wonder if AI is applicable. To make an algorithm, break down into “clues”, and let the computer sort through the tips.

I doubt Delphi is using machine learning/AI, but the FBI certainly is.

amateur opinion and speculation