Awsi Dooger
Former Member
- Joined
- Jun 1, 2017
- Messages
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He gets them down to near the stream and this is when they take their chance and go for it across the shallow area.
I personally believe he did not want to kill them there, I believe he wanted to abduct them to his safe place via car
Sorry but I can't see that stuff at all. The primary reason I remained in Las Vegas for 24 years was that I encountered an incredibly sharp group of people in the sports betting realm, far beyond anything I have every experienced elsewhere, before or since. Tremendous grasp of probability, as opposed to succumbing to low percentage conventional wisdom. None of us were surprised when a member of that realm dominated Jeopardy to such extent, racking up previously unheard of digits. For decades we'd always said members of our group should go on Jeopardy. But nobody had the guts or stray to do it until he did. Immense kudos. Frankly for all the smarts there is also a smug stodginess in that setting that detracts from outside experiences. The belief is that sports betting is the exhilaration and opportunity all year long, so why waste time doing anything else? Consequently I was always chastised when I would leave town to visit family for several weeks at Christmas time, and leave town for 3 months every summer. Even when I was doing something like attending the Barcelona Olympics in 1992 none of the local guys could believe I would prefer that as opposed to 115 degree days of wagering on baseball.
Anyway, as Falling Down posted here recently, the walk to the crime scene from end of the bridge is roughly 4 minutes. The odds of an armed perpetrator losing control during that time frame are exceptionally low. Far more likely he had a spot in mind and methodically directed them there. That spot bought 21 hours via the simple crossing of Deer Creek. The notion of dashing across the creek plays into the same hero angle as Libby taking the video. It is a convenient wannabelieve adjustment away from the norm. I'm not buying it. Once he has them in control every interpretation has to be in favor of the killer, not the victims. Anthony Greeno presented a standard recreation of the trek across the creek. The hero version has the girls taking off. Far more likely, the killer inflicted evil during the trek itself, whether physical or language or both. These guys prioritize fear and savor the fear.
Besides, if they are going to take off, why do it across a creek with a 4 foot bank on the opposite side? That is the definition of no sense. They had already been on a perfectly level gravel access road after descending the first stage of down the hill. They had also been on perfectly level wide open terrain after descending second stage. The flee across the creek mode somehow prefers waiting until the worst possible time and topography. Even if they made it across the creek it is severely uphill to get out of there. And that is blatantly obvious.
Abducting to his car is so absurd I'm not going to address it at length. If he wanted to do that then the car would have been along the gravel access road. Any other spot is so far removed with such great risk he'd have to be a dunce to even contemplate it.
I'll be blunt. I have emphasized this countless times on various sites. I do not believe law enforcement has adequate training in terms of probability. I have seen it in this case and tons of cases. Instead of making that aspect a prerequisite during training and while ascending the ladder, the profession merely inherits standard evaluation and then expects it to do great things upon reaching top level, even as they are interpreting a 2% likelihood as a 60% likelihood. Instead of defunding anything we need specialization from the outset. Nobody should advance or be allowed to apply at all unless they can ace a related probability test. The sportsbook manager at the Horseshoe in 1989 gave every applicant that type of test before even hiring them to do basic tasks. There are many versions online. The best ones combine mathematical and situational variables.