Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #130

[Awsi Dooger]

He gets them down to near the stream and this is when they take their chance and go for it across the shallow area.

I personally believe he did not want to kill them there, I believe he wanted to abduct them to his safe place via car

Sorry but I can't see that stuff at all. The primary reason I remained in Las Vegas for 24 years was that I encountered an incredibly sharp group of people in the sports betting realm, far beyond anything I have every experienced elsewhere, before or since. Tremendous grasp of probability, as opposed to succumbing to low percentage conventional wisdom. None of us were surprised when a member of that realm dominated Jeopardy to such extent, racking up previously unheard of digits. For decades we'd always said members of our group should go on Jeopardy. But nobody had the guts or stray to do it until he did. Immense kudos. Frankly for all the smarts there is also a smug stodginess in that setting that detracts from outside experiences. The belief is that sports betting is the exhilaration and opportunity all year long, so why waste time doing anything else? Consequently I was always chastised when I would leave town to visit family for several weeks at Christmas time, and leave town for 3 months every summer. Even when I was doing something like attending the Barcelona Olympics in 1992 none of the local guys could believe I would prefer that as opposed to 115 degree days of wagering on baseball.

Anyway, as Falling Down posted here recently, the walk to the crime scene from end of the bridge is roughly 4 minutes. The odds of an armed perpetrator losing control during that time frame are exceptionally low. Far more likely he had a spot in mind and methodically directed them there. That spot bought 21 hours via the simple crossing of Deer Creek. The notion of dashing across the creek plays into the same hero angle as Libby taking the video. It is a convenient wannabelieve adjustment away from the norm. I'm not buying it. Once he has them in control every interpretation has to be in favor of the killer, not the victims. Anthony Greeno presented a standard recreation of the trek across the creek. The hero version has the girls taking off. Far more likely, the killer inflicted evil during the trek itself, whether physical or language or both. These guys prioritize fear and savor the fear.

Besides, if they are going to take off, why do it across a creek with a 4 foot bank on the opposite side? That is the definition of no sense. They had already been on a perfectly level gravel access road after descending the first stage of down the hill. They had also been on perfectly level wide open terrain after descending second stage. The flee across the creek mode somehow prefers waiting until the worst possible time and topography. Even if they made it across the creek it is severely uphill to get out of there. And that is blatantly obvious.

Abducting to his car is so absurd I'm not going to address it at length. If he wanted to do that then the car would have been along the gravel access road. Any other spot is so far removed with such great risk he'd have to be a dunce to even contemplate it.

I'll be blunt. I have emphasized this countless times on various sites. I do not believe law enforcement has adequate training in terms of probability. I have seen it in this case and tons of cases. Instead of making that aspect a prerequisite during training and while ascending the ladder, the profession merely inherits standard evaluation and then expects it to do great things upon reaching top level, even as they are interpreting a 2% likelihood as a 60% likelihood. Instead of defunding anything we need specialization from the outset. Nobody should advance or be allowed to apply at all unless they can ace a related probability test. The sportsbook manager at the Horseshoe in 1989 gave every applicant that type of test before even hiring them to do basic tasks. There are many versions online. The best ones combine mathematical and situational variables.

 

[minazoe]

On the sexual assault issue. Please link where it has been stated that the girls were NOT sexually assaulted.

I really think it is highly unlikely they were not. I think we cannot decide what DNA they do or don't have based on the evidence we know.

mOO

 

[Yemelyan]

Snipped and bolded by me to address a few things....

On the DNA subject and I do believe they have DNA. He did not sexually assault the girls as far as I’m aware.

If you have inside knowledge the rest of us don't have, please cite it. LE have never told us anything about sexual assault one way or the other.

I’ve watched every press conference from start to finish multiple times. And from my experience working in LE as a detective I understand the words he is using.

Why mention the movie The Shack......there is a couple of reasons but the main reason I would take away from it is, either they are watching BG and witnessed him purchasing it, or when doing door to door enquiries it was on the Tv, this tells BG we are speaking to you.

In the podcast Scene of the Crime: A New Direction, minute 50:10: Kelsi asks Carter, can he clear up his remarks regarding The Shack? Did the girls die in a shack? Carter's answer: "There was no shack." He goes on to ask her if she has seen the movie: KG: "Yes, a couple of times." DC: "Then you know." He further explains that the movie reflects his personal values about morality and redemption and illustrates, in his opinion, how a person might cope with loss through faith.

To me this is a definite answer that puts to bed the question of whether or not his remarks on The Shack were in any way a coded statement about the crime itself.

The car is huge for me as by now if there was an innocent reason for that car been there the owner would have come forward.

How would we know if someone did come forward with a truly innocent explanation? LE in this case have released barely anything in four years, but they would tell us this evidentiary information?

 

[Deleted member 102539]

Question: he probably carries gun with him. Do you think he will allow himself to be caught?

No, he won't allow himself to be caught. IMO

 

[Peppery]

I've heard Libby was into true crime...so she knew it's better to run from a weapon in a public space than to get in a car and be taken somewhere.

Why would they go down the hill before trying to run? Unless the weapon was right up against one of their heads/backs where it was very unlikely to miss.

If I was a 13/14 year old girl and a guy around “dad age” said to go down the hill and he wouldn’t hurt us, I’d definitely comply. They were good girls, taught to respect adults and barely teenagers. Girls often worry about overreacting or making a scene or offending an adult and push down feelings of uneasiness. ETA I do think BG was in his 40’s.

As often as we hear we should fight and run, there’s also stories of victims, often female victims of sexual crimes, playing along with the perp, gaining his trust and escaping. They may have had this thought, we just don’t know.

We’ll never know what Abby or Libby knew or what they thought during what was likely a split second decision. We also don’t know for sure if BG said anything more to them that hasn’t been released.

 

[Charlot123]

I am not the person to post, “wait till you get jailed”. I think the longer it goes, the worse for BG because people are getting more and more angry.

So today, I was thinking along a totally different line. If the perpetrator lives in Delphi/around it, he must know that the LE are getting close. He probably is scared. He might have had some plans in life, he can not pursue them. Nowhere.

Trying to imagine how it must fill. Probably like having a disease. One can’t plan, can’t even buy things he enjoys, because he doesn’t know how long he’d need them for. If he goes somewhere, enjoys some views, it should make him think, “maybe it is the last time?”

The longer it is unsolved, the more angry the community will be against the family. The longer it would last, the more difficult it would be to prove that the family knew nothing.

Maybe it is easier to finish it all now, to protect the ones close to him?

DC once said, “what will those close to you think when...”. To paraphrase, “what will the society think of the ones close to you when you are apprehended?”

They won’t be able to wash off the suspicion of complicity. No one here, or elsewhere, would post, “they are victims, too”.

In any system of values, there is no worse punishment than what the perpetrator has already secured for himself in the future for this murders. In a way, it makes him free to decide now.

In his shoes, I know what I’d do. Anything I can to protect the ones I love.

Unless he takes care of exonerating others, this rumor, “they probably knew”, will follow them forever.

ETA. Even if these are parents he protects, because I don't know, parents or children. Either way.

 

[Charlot123]

No, he won't allow himself to be caught. IMO

I think the best thing for him to think of it in advance. He is not going to win this game, nor enjoy this life, even now.

 

[Marzipan]

On the DNA subject and I do believe they have DNA. He did not sexually assault the girls as far as I’m aware.

So assuming it’s touch DNA which I believe it is the police have to thread very carefully here. If he knew girls and had access to them he can explain the DNA away very easily.

I’ve watched every press conference from start to finish multiple times. And from my experience working in LE as a detective I understand the words he is using.

Why mention the movie The Shack......there is a couple of reasons but the main reason I would take away from it is, either they are watching BG and witnessed him purchasing it, or when doing door to door enquiries it was on the Tv, this tells BG we are speaking to you.
If they show their hand with the DNA and that’s all they have and he explains it away easily, LE will be in a world of trouble.

The car is huge for me as by now if there was an innocent reason for that car been there the owner would have come forward.

I am under no illusion they know who BG is and they are watching him like a hawk waiting for that 1 mistake, and guys with egos like this always make mistakes eventually.

I do believe his partner/family suspect something and they should come forward but loyalty/fear will not allow them to.
The car is that important to the investigation that they have never given colour make or model despite having it on cctv and witnesses putting it there. Why hold back this you ask, I will tell you why if they reveal it everyone in small towns know what everybody else drives and it will identify the person to the town of Delphi.

You also have to consider there may be a father in his 50s involved or a son in his 20s or 30s involved. They both live in the same house have access to the same car and both share similar DNA that is not in the system.

Both are suspects but only 1 is the killer and he is keeping the dirty secret to himself.

Identify the driver of the car that particular day and you have your killer.

Given everything you can understand why LE in Delphi are so cautious. They have 1 shot at this and have to get it right 1st time. There is no 2nd chances in this one.

Welcome Irish Detective! Some of your comments make me wonder if you have looked through the scanner thread. My understanding is that we do not discuss the scanner thread here (and nobody has been discussing it much there either). If you have not, you can find it linked back at the beginning of each new thread. Some kind people have transcribed much of it. Someone recommended it to me, and now I am recommending it to others. The reason I recommend it is there is talk of cars. However, I do not think the cars are those at the CPS building. I really don't know exactly where they are, even if we could discuss here. But the scanner thread is worth looking at for background too.

 

[StarryStarryNight]

Sorry but I can't see that stuff at all. The primary reason I remained in Las Vegas for 24 years was that I encountered an incredibly sharp group of people in the sports betting realm, far beyond anything I have every experienced elsewhere, before or since. Tremendous grasp of probability, as opposed to succumbing to low percentage conventional wisdom. None of us were surprised when a member of that realm dominated Jeopardy to such extent, racking up previously unheard of digits. For decades we'd always said members of our group should go on Jeopardy. But nobody had the guts or stray to do it until he did. Immense kudos. Frankly for all the smarts there is also a smug stodginess in that setting that detracts from outside experiences. The belief is that sports betting is the exhilaration and opportunity all year long, so why waste time doing anything else? Consequently I was always chastised when I would leave town to visit family for several weeks at Christmas time, and leave town for 3 months every summer. Even when I was doing something like attending the Barcelona Olympics in 1992 none of the local guys could believe I would prefer that as opposed to 115 degree days of wagering on baseball.

Anyway, as Falling Down posted here recently, the walk to the crime scene from end of the bridge is roughly 4 minutes. The odds of an armed perpetrator losing control during that time frame are exceptionally low. Far more likely he had a spot in mind and methodically directed them there. That spot bought 21 hours via the simple crossing of Deer Creek. The notion of dashing across the creek plays into the same hero angle as Libby taking the video. It is a convenient wannabelieve adjustment away from the norm. I'm not buying it. Once he has them in control every interpretation has to be in favor of the killer, not the victims. Anthony Greeno presented a standard recreation of the trek across the creek. The hero version has the girls taking off. Far more likely, the killer inflicted evil during the trek itself, whether physical or language or both. These guys prioritize fear and savor the fear.

Besides, if they are going to take off, why do it across a creek with a 4 foot bank on the opposite side? That is the definition of no sense. They had already been on a perfectly level gravel access road after descending the first stage of down the hill. They had also been on perfectly level wide open terrain after descending second stage. The flee across the creek mode somehow prefers waiting until the worst possible time and topography. Even if they made it across the creek it is severely uphill to get out of there. And that is blatantly obvious.

Abducting to his car is so absurd I'm not going to address it at length. If he wanted to do that then the car would have been along the gravel access road. Any other spot is so far removed with such great risk he'd have to be a dunce to even contemplate it.

I'll be blunt. I have emphasized this countless times on various sites. I do not believe law enforcement has adequate training in terms of probability. I have seen it in this case and tons of cases. Instead of making that aspect a prerequisite during training and while ascending the ladder, the profession merely inherits standard evaluation and then expects it to do great things upon reaching top level, even as they are interpreting a 2% likelihood as a 60% likelihood. Instead of defunding anything we need specialization from the outset. Nobody should advance or be allowed to apply at all unless they can ace a related probability test. The sportsbook manager at the Horseshoe in 1989 gave every applicant that type of test before even hiring them to do basic tasks. There are many versions online. The best ones combine mathematical and situational variables.

This is interesting, but I’m not sure I agree with all of it.
In my opinion, sports betting probability is a very different thing than trying to predict human behavior in very stressful situations.
As far as the thought that it would have been an idiot who would try and escape across the creek, well, call me an idiot because that is exactly what I would have done. No way I out run a grown man on the gravel driveway. My only chance is an obstacle course across the creek, dodging around trees, climbing slopes etc. Maybe all of this is hard for him too. Plus all the trails, all the people, all the help I know of is across the creek. That’s where I’m headed and I don’t think that’s a bad plan.

 

[FrostedGlass]

Snipped and bolded by me to address a few things....



If you have inside knowledge the rest of us don't have, please cite it. LE have never told us anything about sexual assault one way or the other.




In the podcast Scene of the Crime: A New Direction, minute 50:10: Kelsi asks Carter, can he clear up his remarks regarding The Shack? Did the girls die in a shack? Carter's answer: "There was no shack." He goes on to ask her if she has seen the movie: KG: "Yes, a couple of times." DC: "Then you know." He further explains that the movie reflects his personal values about morality and redemption and illustrates, in his opinion, how a person might cope with loss through faith.

To me this is a definite answer that puts to bed the question of whether or not his remarks on The Shack were in any way a coded statement about the crime itself.



How would we know if someone did come forward with a truly innocent explanation? LE in this case have released barely anything in four years, but they would tell us this evidentiary information?

That's good to know about the shack; we can officially put that idea to rest.
We also know that the 'twist' was they had 2 murders instead of 2 missing.

We'll make that list of known things so we can post it when questions come up again.

 

[Ravenmoon]

I think the best thing for him to think of it in advance. He is not going to win this game, nor enjoy this life, even now.

I wish I could agree with this.
But,if I am being honest, he is quite likely enjoying his freedom, the attention he gets and the knowledge that for4 years, he has evaded arrest.

 

[Angels27]

Maybe someone who works with the youth as a coach or mentor?

Imagine if an adult at school or one of her sports teams, or even a friend’s father or a friend of the family was sexually harassing her over text or in person and she rebuffed him and he thought she might tell someone. This happens every single day, unfortunately. Every time we look at the news another teacher or coach is accused, fired, or arrested for child sexual harassment or worse. It’s very possible.

 

[Angels27]

Question: he probably carries gun with him. Do you think he will allow himself to be caught?

If the girls were shot, no one that we know of heard a gunshot and he’d most likely be a registered gun owner. What about ballistics? Probably no gun was used. If so he needed something to get them Down That Hill. My guess is a fake police badge, or he lured them verbally telling them something good was down there, like a party of other kids\friends or kittens or ducks or something.

 

[Falling Down]

Sorry but I can't see that stuff at all. The primary reason I remained in Las Vegas for 24 years was that I encountered an incredibly sharp group of people in the sports betting realm, far beyond anything I have every experienced elsewhere, before or since. Tremendous grasp of probability, as opposed to succumbing to low percentage conventional wisdom. None of us were surprised when a member of that realm dominated Jeopardy to such extent, racking up previously unheard of digits. For decades we'd always said members of our group should go on Jeopardy. But nobody had the guts or stray to do it until he did. Immense kudos. Frankly for all the smarts there is also a smug stodginess in that setting that detracts from outside experiences. The belief is that sports betting is the exhilaration and opportunity all year long, so why waste time doing anything else? Consequently I was always chastised when I would leave town to visit family for several weeks at Christmas time, and leave town for 3 months every summer. Even when I was doing something like attending the Barcelona Olympics in 1992 none of the local guys could believe I would prefer that as opposed to 115 degree days of wagering on baseball.

Anyway, as Falling Down posted here recently, the walk to the crime scene from end of the bridge is roughly 4 minutes. The odds of an armed perpetrator losing control during that time frame are exceptionally low. Far more likely he had a spot in mind and methodically directed them there. That spot bought 21 hours via the simple crossing of Deer Creek. The notion of dashing across the creek plays into the same hero angle as Libby taking the video. It is a convenient wannabelieve adjustment away from the norm. I'm not buying it. Once he has them in control every interpretation has to be in favor of the killer, not the victims. Anthony Greeno presented a standard recreation of the trek across the creek. The hero version has the girls taking off. Far more likely, the killer inflicted evil during the trek itself, whether physical or language or both. These guys prioritize fear and savor the fear.

Besides, if they are going to take off, why do it across a creek with a 4 foot bank on the opposite side? That is the definition of no sense. They had already been on a perfectly level gravel access road after descending the first stage of down the hill. They had also been on perfectly level wide open terrain after descending second stage. The flee across the creek mode somehow prefers waiting until the worst possible time and topography. Even if they made it across the creek it is severely uphill to get out of there. And that is blatantly obvious.

Abducting to his car is so absurd I'm not going to address it at length. If he wanted to do that then the car would have been along the gravel access road. Any other spot is so far removed with such great risk he'd have to be a dunce to even contemplate it.

I'll be blunt. I have emphasized this countless times on various sites. I do not believe law enforcement has adequate training in terms of probability. I have seen it in this case and tons of cases. Instead of making that aspect a prerequisite during training and while ascending the ladder, the profession merely inherits standard evaluation and then expects it to do great things upon reaching top level, even as they are interpreting a 2% likelihood as a 60% likelihood. Instead of defunding anything we need specialization from the outset. Nobody should advance or be allowed to apply at all unless they can ace a related probability test. The sportsbook manager at the Horseshoe in 1989 gave every applicant that type of test before even hiring them to do basic tasks. There are many versions online. The best ones combine mathematical and situational variables.

I've been of the opinion that BG had a lot of variables that he needed to have work in his favor, since early on in this case. I'm also of the opinion that this guy is very observant, and is adept at reading people. May even have a much higher ability to "read people", than most people do, generally. No doubt in my mind he'd been to MHB before, perhaps many times beforehand. Observing adults, observing juveniles, etc.

I think that his going after unaccompanied juveniles was his ultimate prize, and in this case he had the upper hand because the only people there during a set period of time were BG and two girls. Girls he could more easily control than an adult or adults. It makes perfect sense the girls would have stayed together, rather then one taking off and leaving the other behind. This is human nature, and BG knows this.

He forced them down to an area they really couldn't escape from, there was nowhere to go, really. I watched both episodes of the HLN special about the case. Anna Williams says in one episode the girls were not good with directions (paraphrasing). Now put yourselves in their shoes, you're at the end of the bridge, even if you take off running, which direction do you go in? BG forcing them down into the gorge was a crucial thing he had to set in motion, in order to control them and get them on the way to his pre-picked crime scene. He's a predator of humans, and as anyone with a hunting and/or military background knows, you have the upper hand if you can trap animals or humans in a spot they would have to struggle to get, or in this case climb, out of. As Awsi Dooger mentioned, there is probability involved in a lot of crimes, a perp has to take this into serious consideration. He had enough variables to consider before even parking his vehicle and observing people that day, and BG would have had a desire to prevent more variables from being thrown in his way. I believe that by attacking juveniles that day, with no witnesses around who saw the girls after they were dropped off, eliminated variables for him, which I could explain but I think a lot of it makes perfect sense to anyone who has followed the case.

I'm also of the opinion, and people have argued with me about this but I'll let it fly, the girls most likely did not know where the gravel road led to, where it becomes C.R. 625. Which happens to be where Abby lived at the time. Maybe a quarter of a mile or so from the bridge. Again, I can picture myself, put myself in their shoes, at their age. Of course pre-internet and smart phones, but at any rate if I've never been to that bridge before, like in Abby's case, how would I know where I am in relation to anything besides County Road 300, at age 13? Or why would I even care, at that age? Throw in Anna's comment above, and one can see how they would have been at that SE end of the bridge, with no idea which direction to head in walking away from that end of the bridge, which by the way is on private property.

Now picture BG, hanging back a bit on the trail, observing the girls. At some point he notices Abby, who had never crossed the bridge, walking more slowly than the more sure-footed Libby. What would you (WS members) think seeing that? Again, we have to think of this individual as a predator. Two innocent children out for a walk on a trail and an old bridge, carefree and not concerned with much anything beyond the moment, and that beautiful gorge, just talking and enjoying themselves. This was the monster's ultimate moment to strike. He had them trapped at the SE end of the bridge, and like Awsi Dooger mentioned, we don't know what happened to them around that time and between there and the CS. Assault(s), restraints, etc., we don't know.

JMO

 

[Angels27]

Touch DNA can come from a lot of places including people you brush up against in a grocery store, you hung your coat next to theirs at church, your math teacher who put their hand on your shoulder as you walked out of class, etc. Everybody you come into contact with everyday. I believe they only have touch DNA and that is why they don’t know if it was the killer’s.
DNA found under the victims fingernails, in intimate places(sorry), bodily fluids on the victims like saliva etc....you would figure that is from the killer. I don’t think LE has that in this case.
Just my thoughts.

I remember LE saying they had a ton of bodily fluids saliva, urine etc from the searchers.

 

[Angels27]

No.

But I would point out that whether or not what happened to them met the legal criteria to be called "sexual assault" (which we may never know), that says nothing about whether or not the crime was sexually motivated as there could be a variety of paraphilias and other things going on.

Right, or they could have staged it to throw cops off from the real perp.

 

[Angels27]

okay, I'll take a walk with you and think about how BG might actually be known to the police.

Could be a good witness identified him, knew him, swore she thought it was one of the ( insert name) brothers. But she just cant swear to it because she just got a quick glimpse and she barely took time to register it.

Could be this individual was also part of the search.

he has been questioned more than once.

they don't have cause to put him in a line up and the witness is afraid he will remember seeing her at the park and
come looking for her.

ooooh if this is true, they are watching him every day, perhaps the word that they have no idea is a big fat lie and
and they are waiting for him.

added: maybe this is why he's not a danger because he has someone on him at all times. ( is it possible?). I don't know..

mOO

Can they get gps and phone taps and stuff on him without a search warrant? Can they do it illegally without getting in trouble, whether it’s admissible in court or not?

 

[Angels27]

I was impressed by the related quotes during the HLN special. Mike and Becky had no problem conceding that they stare people down. I experienced that immediately in Delphi within 2 minutes of arriving. I was pumping gas at the Shell station downtown when an older guy also pumping gas basically demanded to know what I was doing there. I walked main street where there are several small local restaurants. A group waiting for a table stopped their conversation cold and stared at me as I walked past. A woman at the Dairy Queen counter blatantly stared me down head to toe with a stern expression. Then at Trailhead Park an older couple obviously got scared of me and immediately drove away once they saw my Florida tag.

Good thing I was aware of the inevitability before arriving in Delphi. But I have to say it was beyond my anticipation. I thought my 6-3 height might provide some quick dismissive ability. Seemingly not in the slightest. I got the full treatment.

However, as I've mentioned here and elsewhere, the glaring exception was among young people. Teenagers didn't care at all. I was so impressed with that. They seemingly had such a tremendous grasp of probability, as opposed to overthinking anything and everything. That age group walked past me without second thought every single time.

God, imagine how many false “tips” are called in daily. Ugh.

 

[Yemelyan]

Can they get gps and phone taps and stuff on him without a search warrant? Can they do it illegally without getting in trouble, whether it’s admissible in court or not?

This is a complex legal issue and the law actually changed on this in 2018. Prior to 2018, with a warrant, LE could get geofence cell phone data for all phones in an area or lists of all cell phones pinging off certain towers. After 2018 the law became much more circumscribed - warrants had to show justification for looking for a specific number linked to a particular name/person, they were time limited (to hours, not weeks) and LE had to show probable cause that the cell phone number they hoped to find was at a location because of provable criminal activity (previously it was enough just to show that it was around in the general time frame). Perhaps more importantly, any investigation that had developed leads from information collected pre-2018 might now have "fruit of the poison tree"- aka information that showed potential involvement of suspects that, due to timing, possibly is no longer admissible. MOO

 

[Angels27]

Welcome and thanks for your insight - it's very interesting.

For those who need a refresher on the car at the CPS Building.

• A car was parked in the abandoned CPS building parking lot between the hours of noon and 5:00 p.m. on February 13, 2017
  • We are looking for anyone who could give a description of vehicles that were in the parking lot during the time
• The location of the abandoned CPS building was 6931 West 300 North, Delphi, IN
  • The building has since been demolished and the lot is vacant

Indiana State Police releases clarification points on Delphi murder suspect

I wonder when it was torn down. Maybe some construction worker from out of town working on demolition?