If pre-teens walking alone on paths was as common as you say, we'd hear of a lot more cases like this. As a predator, a hiking path with no one around is not a place you'd head to in order to find a child alone. I still think it's pretty common in rural areas for children and teens to wander alone in all sorts of places. When I was 10-13, I was riding my bike all over the county (and even out of the county), down highways and through the woods with friends. Sometimes I packed a lunch and would leave after breakfast and not come home until dinner time and then I'd be out until dusk.
Now my daughters (8,9, and almost 11) don't have the luxury of living near town, so they hike through our woods or walk the 1/8-1/4 mile down to the park to play on the playground or play softball, or walk to the "neighbors'" house down the road to play with their kids. As they get older, they'll get more freedom to roam. I'm certainly not the only parent that allows it, judging by all the kids riding bikes by our house and kids at the park without parents. Most younger than Libby and Abby. We're also a heck of a lot farther from LE in the event things go wrong.
I know it gets said all the time, but things like this don't happen here. I feel my kids are safe. Statistically, the likelihood of being a victim of a crime while walking on a rural trail/riding a bike down the road/playing on a playground in the middle of nowhere is tiny. It's a risk I'm comfortable taking as a parent. I feel awful for the community of Delphi and neighboring communities who likely no longer feel comfortable to make the same decisions they did before this happened. And admittedly, we're close enough to Delphi that I kept my kids on a short leash for a while.
So because someone says they don't know their neighbor, that is proof positive he's local?
Google how many grocery stores there are in Delphi. Gas stations? Coffee shops? Restaurants? The places that people use every day... locals are also regulars. They have to make an income. They have to eat. They need products. In a small town of 3000, Crazy Bill the hermit is called Crazy Bill the hermit because everyone knows Crazy Bill is crazy and lives like a hermit in his small house in the woods. Someone would recognize him. Oh yeah, that's the guy who fills up that old truck once a week... Oh yeah, that's the guy who buys bananas and granola bars every week... Oh yeah... that's Crazy Bill the hermit who lives a few houses down. We all know the crazies. They stick out in our minds and we're told stories time and time again. We know on Mondays and Thursdays, the group home lets their residents out to walk around town and occasionally they wander well out of town. We know which ones are harmless and which ones aren't.
But not everyone knows everyone. And due to our remote location, so many people travel outside of the towns and county for work, shopping, and fuel. Lafayette is so close to Delphi, and I would guess a large portion of Delphi and surrounding communities travel there often for conveniences.
We also have to take into consideration how many people no longer have access to the news or even follow the news. How many people have no idea this happened who live within 30-60 minutes of Delphi? Who caught the initial reports and then never heard anything again? Who is aware they've released a sketch? I'm an hour away and wouldn't have known anything about the case if it weren't for WS. I had a few FB friends sharing things, but those posts could have easily been missed. I don't have access to TV news, I don't follow the news online (because it's so gosh darn depressing), and generally hear about things here (when relevant) or through the grapevine.
In cases like this, where people go in endless circles and out on very far limbs to try and solve it, sometimes they lose sight of the obvious. Sometimes, they have to attach some sort of sinister genius to the perp because he somehow got away with it. Sometimes, certain sleuths' opinions are taken as gospel, rather than scrutinized.
No one can state anything for certain, myself included, therefore the use of likely and unlikely is fair and honest... and open for debate. My opinions are based in reality. There is a reality to this. Very rare is the case that there is some sinister, devious master plan behind it all. Anything is possible, but possible doesn't always equal plausible.
Something as simple as wearing long pants and shoes hints more that he didn't plan to cross a creek... rather than he had a master plan, was a local who knew the area like the back of his hand, and managed to time meeting them right where he wanted them as they walked, luckily, with no one else around.
That's just the reality. Sometimes being there from thread 1 clouds judgement and creates bias.
