IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 #28

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I just realized that I have started watching the Unidentified forum for possible Jane Does that could be Lauren. I am sad that it has basically been that long now. I know that any even remotely reasonable JD would be immediately compared to Lauren, but I keep thinking what if she somehow ended up further away than we all think?

I know it is way, way more likely that she is in a shallow grave somewhere close (or maybe not even that) or at the bottom of a lake :(
 
Not sure how to state this, but CS/RS & LE must either know that she is not alive and solely looking to obtain evidence to convict someone, or they really have absolutely NO clue as to what happened. I can understand the former, albeit sad and tragic, however...if it's the latter, and they really have NO clue....then time to change focus off the locals and look at random perp.....I have a hard time believiing that with LE and the BO detectives, and all the people around LS and the 5N crew, that they can't fingure out what happened and who did what.....just too many sources not to know if one or more of them were involved/responsible. Case is growing cold....very sad!
 
Not sure how to state this, but CS/RS & LE must either know that she is not alive and solely looking to obtain evidence to convict someone, or they really have absolutely NO clue as to what happened. I can understand the former, albeit sad and tragic, however...if it's the latter, and they really have NO clue....then time to change focus off the locals and look at random perp.....I have a hard time believiing that with LE and the BO detectives, and all the people around LS and the 5N crew, that they can't fingure out what happened and who did what.....just too many sources not to know if one or more of them were involved/responsible. Case is growing cold....very sad!

Yes, it's very sad. I'm not sure it needs to be a completely random perp, even ... maybe someone once removed from the POIs who saw an opportunity and took it, or someone out that night who LS had seen around and thought she could trust. I fight the idea that LS made it to JR's and he let her leave, but if he was under the influence of whatever and she was able to walk, perhaps he did.
 
Not sure how to state this, but CS/RS & LE must either know that she is not alive and solely looking to obtain evidence to convict someone, or they really have absolutely NO clue as to what happened. I can understand the former, albeit sad and tragic, however...if it's the latter, and they really have NO clue....then time to change focus off the locals and look at random perp.....I have a hard time believiing that with LE and the BO detectives, and all the people around LS and the 5N crew, that they can't fingure out what happened and who did what.....just too many sources not to know if one or more of them were involved/responsible. Case is growing cold....very sad!

I agree. And I'm leaning towards your first impression that there are enough people and known factors that they should very strong ideas about what happened and who was involved. Because, we actually can do that, even with the little that we know. They know quite a bit more. Unfortunately, they won't share that information with us, so we are left more to intuition, as we exhaust analysis of available facts. It is frustrating.

Consider the Lance Armstrong situation. Look how many years and how much pressure it took for the truth to come out. Here you had dozens of people who knew what was going on, and no one would say a word for several years. You had the pristine LiveStrong Cancer Beating Lance riding like a white knight denying any wrongdoing and toss off attacks as sour grapes. But years later, a crack here, a whisper there, the relentless pressure for the truth busted it wide open. Suddenly there are droves of people who "knew" and details are pouring out. Those people who think conspiracies are in the minds of lunatics, take note! Conspiracies are VERY common and VERY human. Walls of silence are very common in groups of people, it is a natural "protect the group" instinct.

Lauren's family needs to know what happened. There are people all over that feel this too and it's why we are here. Keep demanding the truth, keep asking questions, keep the pressure on the POI's and even LE if necessary. From what is public, Lauren most likely suffered an accidental death. She was losing consciousness or slipping in and out of a coma and suffered serious injuries. The last impeccable proof of her whereabouts was on video falling face down and not blocking the fall. The only "proof" that she was alive after that comes from people with inconsistent stories who admit to being the last to see her. Everything points to them, and almost nothing points to some random perp. Essentially the possibility of a random perp IS their defense argument. If they keep their mouths shut they think that "possibility" will keep them from being held accountable.

To have a more solid case, prosecution must close that random perp gap, left open by JR. There were cameras that show where LS was not, there were witnesses still out at that hour. There were cars driving around. There was LE on duty. So that random perp possibility is squeezed into an even more really narrow and highly unlikely possibility. But what about those 4:15 calls from JR's? Does that close the gap more?
And remember, JR does not have amnesia, he remembers very specific details; her black eye, he said he gave her a "walk test" (although he didn't give her shoes or mention her coma), and he supposedly watched her from his 2ft balcony, JR had no trouble differentiating between an ipod and a phone, he was clearly conscious enough to be observing all of this and remembering it. He is not the one that is claiming to have a memory lapse or being unable to walk. He seemed rather on the ball, so to speak. MB claims to have been studying and therefore also very on the ball. Yet both MB and JR's known stories are largely inconsistent with the witnessed and recorded condition that Lauren was in! Lauren was in much worse shape than CR, yet CR is the one that was puking and put to bed!
If you think about these numerous inconsistencies and how narrow the possibility of a random perp in a very limited time frame and very limited geography it should ring a bell.

So, we can smell a rat(s), but Prove it!
And moreover although extremely unlikely, the random perp thing, the defense is essentially saying - disprove it! Disprove that LS left JR's barefoot, walking, conscious with her keycard and ID, out the 11 St. side of 5N at 4:15 to 4:30 am. If you can disprove that, then we might get somewhere.
 
I agree. And I'm leaning towards your first impression that there are enough people and known factors that they should very strong ideas about what happened and who was involved. Because, we actually can do that, even with the little that we know. They know quite a bit more. Unfortunately, they won't share that information with us, so we are left more to intuition, as we exhaust analysis of available facts. It is frustrating.

At this point, they don't have a person/body, they don't have a suspect and they don't have a body....I know there are legal ramifications, protocol, etc.that don't make this possible...but a year and a half later, maybe they should've or need to involve WS, the public and others to help them! More on that in a minute....

Consider the Lance Armstrong situation. Look how many years and how much pressure it took for the truth to come out. Here you had dozens of people who knew what was going on, and no one would say a word for several years. You had the pristine LiveStrong Cancer Beating Lance riding like a white knight denying any wrongdoing and toss off attacks as sour grapes. But years later, a crack here, a whisper there, the relentless pressure for the truth busted it wide open. Suddenly there are droves of people who "knew" and details are pouring out. Those people who think conspiracies are in the minds of lunatics, take note! Conspiracies are VERY common and VERY human. Walls of silence are very common in groups of people, it is a natural "protect the group" instinct.

Really good point...most of us don't want to think that these three (Thugs in MOO!) have out-smarted LS, her family, LE or any of us...but it's likely...if she dies in their hands, their conspiracy could be (and is proving to be) very strong based on their own cowardness and fear.


Sooooo many usual events occured that night that led to a series of events that can't help but think that they are linked. I don't have all the 'glue' to put them together, but I believe that it's all related....here are a few:

  • Indy 500-meeting CR
    Indy 500-fight
    Blowing off JW, going out with later with DR
    CR and LS stop at his apt before Sports
    Leaving Sports, without shoes/cell
    Cell not being used after 12:15 per CS
    Going back to Smallwood
    Fight at Smallwood
    Going to College Apts on the way to 5N
    Losing the Keys/wallet

That is a very interesting series of events, that we/LE can connect them, maybe the 'Story' will start to make sense. I will be shocked that her dissappearance is NOT related to/caused by these events.
 
Here's what's been bugging me since day one here, and of a few other cases...I have the impression that the 'case' is more important than finding the 'missing'. I know I open a can of worms stating this, and I doubt LE/detectives would ever do this intentionally....but if that is MY child, I'm going to be much less concerned about preservation of evidence, proper procedure, building a case or publicity...specifically in the days immediately following, but I could never turn that off. Regardless if a particular action or event would 'weaken' a case or is being used for whatever reason to build a case against a perp/POI....my only focus would be on finding my child....period! I may end up in jail, but I"d be knocking down doors.

MOO.
 
One of the things that bugs me about this case is that if the guys from 5N were involved and they have been honest with their lawyers, then their lawyers may be lying to the press, which, in my understanding, is a violation of legal ethics.

http://www.americanbar.org/groups/p...4_1_truthfulness_in_statements_to_others.html

So maybe they haven't been honest with their lawyers?

Unless it happened more or less the way the POIs describe except that LS fled 5 North in a compromised condition because of something that happened there and then met a worse fate. But that would mean that she had a worst possible luck ever.

I'm trying to reconcile something like that with JR's story ... say somebody hit on her and then let her stumble away when she wouldn't cooperate ... and sent someone after her who found her deceased?

I hope we someday know.
 
So maybe they haven't been honest with their lawyers?

Unless it happened more or less the way the POIs describe except that LS fled 5 North in a compromised condition because of something that happened there and then met a worse fate. But that would mean that she had a worst possible luck ever.

I'm trying to reconcile something like that with JR's story ... say somebody hit on her and then let her stumble away when she wouldn't cooperate ... and sent someone after her who found her deceased?

I hope we someday know.

No one needed to hit her on the head, she clearly had been hitting her own head and very hard. There is no proof that she ever got up after that last fall. If CR was capable of carrying her within a few minutes before that happened... then he would have been capable of carrying her after that happened. There is no doubt in my mind that after she fell face down without blocking her fall that CR attempted to pick her up again and carry her - to where is the question! This fall and the attempt of someone to carry her, would easily explain her wallet and keys being left at the scene. If CR picks her up and her wallet and keys fall, he may not have noticed or was perhaps very difficult to do so after picking her up.

Since the account from MB is that LS was there but CR was the one puking and needing to be put to bed, to me this is one of the single biggest conflicts. I can see CR stumbling in with LS sometime after 3:00... based on how fast they were moving previously and with LS on his back, I would expect this to have taken 5 to 10 minutes depending on his need to stop and rest or if she slid off and sustained further injuries it may have continued to devolve. It just can not be as MB and his Lawyer have said, as we know the several facts that led up to her supposed arrival and her condition was extremely bad. MB and Lawyer have painted a picture that is totally opposite of that reality. So, why mislead like this? There must be something that went on here. By 3:30 MB was calling JR. We are talking relatively short intervals of time here. Now you have JR admitting that he saw her black eye forming, which means he knew that she was suffering from injuries. It's not been said that he questioned her about how she sustained the injuries. So, this leads me to think, that someone else had explained to him how she sustained the injuries. Who would not ask, what happened? It is not believable to me that LS was face down comatose in the Alley a couple minutes before 3:00 and then perfectly normal, wanting to party, assisting putting someone else to bed, with no signs of trauma within a few minutes later. Even with the known tendency of high doses of Clonopin to cause people to rotate between coma and alertness, her recorded alertness just prior to that fall is not in any way consistent with MB's description. The idea that her condition suddenly and radically improved within minutes is not something I can swallow. Then you have the inconsistency as she supposedly is pawned off on JR. JR describes something more believable, but still unbelievable. He admits to seeing her injuries (MB is blind?) and describes SOME aspect of her state. But his own description is contradictory. Not enough time passed for her to recover from the state she was in combined with the injuries that even he observed at least superficially. We are talking about minutes here. Sure, I can see other types of tragic possibilities here, like her falling down stairs, drowning on her own vomit, slamming her head yet one more time on a very hard surface. Some guest in JR's taking her to a guest room, trying to have sex with her and her heart just stops beating. Regardless of what went wrong... it happened in a short time interval and there is a body. A body that goes missing. And sure, that body may never be found. But there is definitely something wrong with these inconsistent characterizations of LS from what was know of her condition just prior to this. You see MB didn't say that CR carried LS in, that LS was puking, and that LS was unconscious. That would be consistent. But if MB told that story, where would it go next?
I can see CR and MB trying to revive her. MB freaking out. And eventually JR gets a call. Is she already dead at this point? I think so. So, why call JR? There of course are a bunch of theories on why JR would shift attention to himself. His ties to LS. Because of drugs, partying and whatever other dimensions of human nature, these people were all feeling culpable as a group in LS's demise. So, to me it's not believable that LS got up and walked out of 5N, barefoot with keycard in hand at about 4:20am.
I'm very inclined to think that the situation had been contained, story agreed, and body removed by that time. Roughly 1 hr from when CR would have dragged her in, unless of course he dragged her somewhere else and then made it back to conference with the others. I do think CR dragged her back to his apt however. Initially, I had thought he might have not been able to do so. The revelations by PI's this June changed that picture for me.
CR was capable of carrying her. Yet, I do wonder if MB actually saw her and interacted with her. I could see CR dragging her in and going to his room and bathroom... and MB at first not thinking much of it. But then problems arise and all MB can think of doing is to call JR. I get the feeling that MB felt stuck in the middle and not wanting to be there.

And so there are loose ends in this picture, some important ones. From the begining it was said that others were present at CR/MB's when JR was called over. I really don't think JR would get called over at 3:30 am because LS was alert, perky and wanting to party. She could just have easily walked next door and knocked on his door. JR was called because something was up, something was messed up. JR had guests. So there are other POI's that should have witnessed some of what was going on here. Was there a mystery person in this group that the known POI's have made invisible? I think so. I think there were at least 2 other people there with JR, one has not been named publicly, and the other is invisible. The invisible X, I think with the very likely assistance of CR, removed LS from the scene immediately. So these people were / are linked in various ways, and whether or not there was a person X. Then you have JR calling DR and another mystery Person Y (who possibly is Person X) at 4:15 which was the probable end point for the evening. Not knowing the pieces that LE has, what I would be looking for is any video evidence of vehicles leaving the immediate area between 3:00am and 4:30 am, possibly later. To get LS out of the building and into a vehicle would only have taken a couple minutes. Perhaps even right outside of 5N on 11th, as JR watched from his 2 ft. Balcony. Really lean towards this Person X involvement because if the others were missing or spotted elsewhere at those early morning hours it would blow their stories. For example if JR was seen in CR's car at 4:30 am driving past a gas station. Person X, whether local or from out of town, could just go anywhere with LS, allowing the others to seal their stories.
Everyone is linked to JR. JR is the hub. And so be there a person X, they are connected to JR. LE would have a lot of ways to narrow down who such a person might be.

Since I think it went down this way, had to consider just what crime could be proven here, even if you knew who Person X was. Seems like it would be hard to prove murder, even 3rd degree. The situation points to an accidental death and cover up. Even if you could prove that Person X agreed to dispose of LS because the group panicked, what would be the sentence for such an act? Can't imagine someone spending more than 2 years locked up for that. Without a body or other hard evidence that would lead to concrete proof of foul play can you see any more substantial penalties than 2 years?
 
One of the things that bugs me about this case is that if the guys from 5N were involved and they have been honest with their lawyers, then their lawyers may be lying to the press, which, in my understanding, is a violation of legal ethics.

http://www.americanbar.org/groups/p...4_1_truthfulness_in_statements_to_others.html

2 things... #1 You think lawyers have ethics? :p

#2 The lawyers very well could have said "Before you say a word let me explain to you how the system works. If you want to admit guilt in any way then we can keep that between ourselves and hope the police cannot connect you to the crime or I can try and cut you a deal if you'd prefer to come clean. But if you tell me you're guilty then I won't be able to defend you as innocent and instead will need to discredit the evidence that is to be used against you. A not guilty verdict is different than innocent. If you want to claim innocence then let's talk about how that will change the dynamics of your defense and how we'll need to approach this."
 
There is a theory I want to throw out very much. It goes like this. Something goes terribly wrong with Lauren outside, not inside 5 N. Corey goes inside and tells MB who phones JR. One, two, or all three of them place her in the dumpster. Then, humans investigating take way to long to search the landfill and screw up the case. Unfortunately, I put this theory at ninety to ninety-nine percent. Does anyone here have information to discredit this scenario? It's the easy one for the PsOI, no suspicious dog trails, cellphone pings, or video. Just so very simple and so very likely.
 
There is a theory I want to throw out very much. It goes like this. Something goes terribly wrong with Lauren outside, not inside 5 N. Corey goes inside and tells MB who phones JR. One, two, or all three of them place her in the dumpster. Then, humans investigating take way to long to search the landfill and screw up the case. Unfortunately, I put this theory at ninety percent. Does anyone here have information to discredit this scenario?


Something along those lines has always been my #1 theory. I never heard with 100% certainty whether that dumpster was emptied before it would've been or could've been checked. But that would make this the simplest theory.

#2 would be the boyfriend either hiding and watching for her to leave or her staggering to his place because IF the 5N gang is telling the truth about her leaving then questions about her condition become less relevant because shoeless or not, staggering or not, barely coherent or not, injured or not, if they are telling the truth about not being involved and her leaving the apartment complex (even if they sugar coated the story about her condition to not make themselves look bad for letting her leave) then she left the apartment.

If the boyfriend has an airtight alibi then a jilted suitor/wanna be suitor from her past, and it could be recent past (even just that night), comes into play.

Random abduction drops way down the list because statistically it's rare and you have so much random noise that night and in her recent history to make random abduction an awfully weird coincidence (with everything else going on)- Questionable status of her relationship, condition that night, Indy 500 hookup, the still unexplained confrontation at Smallwood....
 
I hate the above theory. I am just one telephone call away from upping the odds even more or throwing this theory out completely. I was hoping one of you has already made that call and can discredit this now.
 
There is a theory I want to throw out very much. It goes like this. Something goes terribly wrong with Lauren outside, not inside 5 N. Corey goes inside and tells MB who phones JR. One, two, or all three of them place her in the dumpster. Then, humans investigating take way to long to search the landfill and screw up the case. Unfortunately, I put this theory at ninety to ninety-nine percent. Does anyone here have information to discredit this scenario? It's the easy one for the PsOI, no suspicious dog trails, cellphone pings, or video. Just so very simple and so very likely.

I believe this theory is very possible. The only question I have is, even though it took a long time to search the landfill, if she was in the dumpster, though they did not find her body, wouldn't they have found her jacket and clothes? Unless that dumpster was taken somewhere else.
 
I believe this theory is very possible. The only question I have is, even though it took a long time to search the landfill, if she was in the dumpster, though they did not find her body, wouldn't they have found her jacket and clothes? Unless that dumpster was taken somewhere else.

So anyone know if they the smallish dumpsters that are emptied on site into a truck, or are they the large, we-haul-the-whole-shebang to the dump, dumpsters?

because if they are the smaller ones, wouldn't dogs have alerted to her being in that dumpster? sorry to be graphic here: if she was dead for any length of time in that dumpster, various fluids would have leaked out and contaminated the dumpster walls. Even after emptying, a dog should alert there.
 
So anyone know if they the smallish dumpsters that are emptied on site into a truck, or are they the large, we-haul-the-whole-shebang to the dump, dumpsters?

because if they are the smaller ones, wouldn't dogs have alerted to her being in that dumpster? sorry to be graphic here: if she was dead for any length of time in that dumpster, various fluids would have leaked out and contaminated the dumpster walls. Even after emptying, a dog should alert there.

I'm under the impression that dogs hitting on a dumpster could be just as due to decaying lunches and dinners thrown into the garbage as a person.

As far as searching a landfill and not finding anything... I've always considered that a needle in a haystack search anyway. The longer they waited the less the chances. Maybe it's just me but I'm also a little skeptical about how well specific trash is really emptied into specific areas. I find it hard to believe due to logistics, laziness, mistakes, etc sometimes the protocol isn't followed. I don't know that and I could be wrong but I'm skeptical. If it's easier for some reason to dump a load in one spot over another I suspect there are times the easy road is taken.

I would think there would be a lot of decomposition in a landfill and that would include clothing.

Most importantly there have been cases where authorities knew a body was in a landfill and they still couldn't find it. So that tells us it's certainly possible a search amongst a sea of garbage after several weeks would come up empty.
 
Since the account from MB is that LS was there but CR was the one puking and needing to be put to bed, to me this is one of the single biggest conflicts. I can see CR stumbling in with LS sometime after 3:00... based on how fast they were moving previously and with LS on his back, I would expect this to have taken 5 to 10 minutes depending on his need to stop and rest or if she slid off and sustained further injuries it may have continued to devolve. It just can not be as MB and his Lawyer have said, as we know the several facts that led up to her supposed arrival and her condition was extremely bad. MB and Lawyer have painted a picture that is totally opposite of that reality. So, why mislead like this? There must be something that went on here. <snipped for space>

(BBM) - Good post, I agree.
 
Okay, I'll add to the list of inconsistencies in MB's story. Here's every version I can remember, all in one place (I put a few links but I don't have time to find all of these. They are all here somewhere)

the POI's story, according to their lawyers, is that LS and CR went back to CR's after the bar/ Smallwood. MB was home all night working on a paper. MB put CR to bed, LS went to JR's. MB wrote his papers. This story would have you believe that the 3 main POI weren't even hanging out together that night.

But,

- HT said MB was over at JR's earlier that night when LS and CR were there (Pre-bar)
- Before JR's name was in the media, someone on PT said he said he was told by JR's roommate that they all went back to JR's after the bar. (who all?)
- A recent-ish article reported that (according to CS, I think) JR was at the bar that night with them.

Variations on what happened at CR/MB's

- LS stayed for a while after MB put CR to bed (some articles said 1 hour) then left
- LS wanted to leave after he put CR to bed. He watched her walk out the door and towards home (friend says CR told him this directly -- article quoted a few posts ago)
- LS still wanted to party, asked MB to join her, he said no, so she left to go to JR's
- MB watched LS leave the apartment heading to JR's via HT (link)
- MB called JR because LS was not in good shape and JR knew her better than he did, so she became "JR's problem" (paraphrasing from memory, from the PI's on the Lohud video)
- MB took her over to JR's
- MB and JR tried to get her to sleep over, but she refused (Lohud 2012) link

MB's cooperation with the investigation:
- MB's lawyer says he is totally cooperating with LE
- Spierers / LE/ news reports say the POI have been 'silent' / not fully cooperating
- MB gives DNA sample, but refuses to take an LE poly
- MB and CR deny who they are when a reporter tries to ask them a question, then complain that media coverage of Lauren's case ruining their lives. MB threatens to call the police. (link)
- (someone claiming to be) MB's mom posts on IDS to 'clear her son's name' and says they would be happy to talk to the Spierers and do anything to help
- Spierers say MB is among the POI who have never talked to them (June 2012)
- (Edited to add) DR and MB have the same lawyer. DR has taken LE polygraph, MB has not.


Phew! Anything else?

The inconsistencies with MB are a key reason I don't think the POI's have told the truth about what happened that night. MB's role as alibi-maker/ helpful roommate/ studious innocent is too neat and it's hard to imagine how there could be so many conflicting reports if it was actually true. It's possible that at least some of the inconsistencies came from sloppy reporting and/or 3rd hand accounts from friends. But even if you discount all of those, I agree with VV that the original statement made by MB's lawyer (like that made by CR's lawyer) does not fit with the info that has been made public since then.
 
wouldn't dogs have alerted to her being in that dumpster? ... Even after emptying, a dog should alert there.

We don't know if they did or didn't though, right? LE has never released this info, AFAIK. There was a rumor that dogs did alert near the dumpster behind CR/JR's, but this was never confirmed and the original source was sketchy.
 
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