SeeingForThe1stTime
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- Nov 17, 2010
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I really appreciate the serious mastication that is going on with every word of every known statement and fact. Every so often I have to take a break from this case and come back with fresh eyes. It just won't leave me alone, however.
This detail about the ID as noted by JR, is similar to his overall very detailed observations that night. Its one of those things that has always raised red flags for me about JR's story. So many people readily want to chalk these people up as being so intoxicated that they were not functional. But clearly in JR's case, the excruciating details, his "walk test", the phone calls are all very richly contrasted against the simple effort of walking LS home 2 blocks away. walking her home could have easily been accomplished perhaps 5 times within the supposed time interval of his astute observations and requests.
Today the phrase "rounding the corner" got me thinking again... why this detail? Why not just saw her walking down 11th? For one thing... if he didn't watch her all the way to the corner it would seem like he wasn't all that caring. But no, he had to watch her all they way to the corner...hmm. Again if he was that concerned, why not just walk her the 2 blocks home! So, why else have her "round the corner"? That is the point where he lets himself off the hook. He throws the possibilities of what happened to her out into the abyss. The implication is stranger abduction. And so no matter how unreasonable and unlikely that is, the challenge is to prove out this lie. (and points well taken that this lie may have also been extended in the form of crafted PR being expressed through unwitting or knowing mouthpieces)
Every one of JR's detailed observations seems so well thought out. It has the earmarks of craftsmanship.
About the second call. If the second call was to HT, even if she knew about that, she certainly would have reason to NOT bring that to light.
It is reasonable that if JR told HT about the call to DR, he would also have mentioned the call to HT as well. But if the second call was not to HT, then it is very curious why JR would not tell HT and/or if he did, why HT would not reveal it. This second call is definitely a loose thread.
Also I think in another recent post by bx about JR going out of his way to make it clear that he alone saw all of this. He's not only protecting CR/MB but his guests as well. Extremely curious.
About The Spierer's... I do think that intuition from CS is very important.
She does have a sense of what went down. And that sense seems to be rather consistent with the mass of analysis going here. Looking at this situation from so many different angles, scenarios, crunching all known data, it keeps coming down to the curious 3:30 phone call from MB to JR and what really happened during the next hour.
My intuition points to an accidental death, botched response from those present, and ensuing cover up. But it's also plausible that ill intent was also a factor and is compelling as a reason for the cover up. Even as unlikely as it would seem to have several people maintain a conspiracy, my gut tells me that it's more likely that at least 2 and perhaps as many as 5 people know what happened or were involved in the crucial 3:30 to 4:30 time frame. JR took responsibility as being the last to see her for various reasons. But it's just too convenient and too well crafted.
MB had to know that LS was in very bad shape if even alive, in stark contrast to all statements attributed to him. This is a big red flag the size of China. MB had this hot potato fall in his lap and he was happy to toss it to storyteller JR. JR turned it into french fries. With is magic wand, JR, gets CR/MB, his guests, and himself all off the hook.
I think you are right about the times being a key. It seems like when people lie, a thought out lie vs. a spur of the moment lie they will generally attempt to leave in as much of the truth as possible only changing specific and important details. I've wracked my brain trying to come up with a valid reason that any of these selfish, entitled, never had to own their behavior brats would cover for the other unless they each had their own responsibility in the outcome. Now I'm wondering if one or more were holding out on being in agreement on how to handle the gone really bad situation. For example, could it be that CR wasn't down with the plan but he compromised by saying I'm not going to be a part of this story but I won't roll on you either, I'll say I don't remember sh** and the rest of you can do what you want. I'll stay out of it and you leave me out of it. Maybe JR knows getting all these people to lie and stay loyal to the lie would be next to impossible so he steps up as last to see Lauren with the understanding everyone else sticks to knowing nada and pointing to him. He can keep better control with a minimum of cooks in the kitchen. I'm starting to think that Lauren's head smacks came to a crisis point either just prior to or just after
arriving back at CRs. I don't think MB walked her over to JRs, I think he carried her or went and got JR to come back to his place to help. Once it's become an irreversible fact that Lauren has died is when these 2 calls are made, 4:15 has Lauren being taken to another location rather than 'rounding the corner' on her way back to SW. In this version of events the timeline stays intact and really nothing much has to change except for what Lauren's condition was and how she left JRs. And like you said, there is also the added benefit of tossing the truth 'out into the abyss' and introducing the possibility of a stranger abduction as possible at the one and only time all night long that it would be at all possible. I also think if this is something close to how it went down that CR is crackable with the right heat put on him.