Snipped by me. Yes, just as it seems, IMO, that JW may have known more than he let on, but instead of promoting JR's version, he went after CR. Regardless, neither have apparently said the magic words. And come to think about it, his parents did a hatchet job on Lauren as well! You'd almost think that they're afraid of something ...
IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 #32
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Snipped by me. Yes, just as it seems, IMO, that JW may have known more than he let on, but instead of promoting JR's version, he went after CR. Regardless, neither have apparently said the magic words. And come to think about it, his parents did a hatchet job on Lauren as well! You'd almost think that they're afraid of something ...
It does seem odd that HT would comment on Lauren taking it 'too far this time' if she actually had no idea what happened to Lauren. If you don't know what happened to your friend, how do you know she is missing because she took it too far?
Furthermore, as other posters have mentioned, HT seemed to have instant faith in JR and his story. Which, okay, they were friends... I sorta get it. Here is what sticks out to me: if you 100% believe JR's story, then to me that doesn't compute with Lauren "taking it to far". Because if you believe JR's story, then I guess you believe a random predator grabbed Lauren while she was trying to walk home. Yes, JR's story does include Lauren being intoxicated-- but he supposedly believed she was well enough to walk home alone. So how is her disappearance then caused by her "taking it too far"? Even a 100% sober 100lb girl could easily be snatched while walking alone at 4AM.
IDK, but to me, HT believing JR's story and vaguely implying that Lauren overdosed by 'taking it too far' just don't make sense. How can they both be true?
Furthermore, as other posters have mentioned, HT seemed to have instant faith in JR and his story. Which, okay, they were friends... I sorta get it. Here is what sticks out to me: if you 100% believe JR's story, then to me that doesn't compute with Lauren "taking it to far". Because if you believe JR's story, then I guess you believe a random predator grabbed Lauren while she was trying to walk home. Yes, JR's story does include Lauren being intoxicated-- but he supposedly believed she was well enough to walk home alone. So how is her disappearance then caused by her "taking it too far"? Even a 100% sober 100lb girl could easily be snatched while walking alone at 4AM.
IDK, but to me, HT believing JR's story and vaguely implying that Lauren overdosed by 'taking it too far' just don't make sense. How can they both be true?
Perhaps they were proven to be otherwise "engaged" or to be elsewhere when Lauren would have been present/seen at CR/MBs/JRs? Wish we knew who the other guest of JRs was and where DB and him/her were at the time LS was there. It's hard to believe that info hasn't been leaked by someone, somewhere, which makes one wonder. Seems everything in Lauren's case is very tightly held by someone whether its LE or others. Still hoping for the break that brings Lauren home, she and her family deserve that.
I would love to know if HT's cell phone records showed anything of interest in the early morning hours of June 3rd.
Does anyone know... (btown or another local)... if Lauren did walk out of 5N and make it to the corner as JR claims, would she have passed any other surveillance cameras on her way back to Smallwood? I am assuming we know for a fact she did not make it to Smallwood because there are no entrances to Smallwood without cameras.
Does anyone know... (btown or another local)... if Lauren did walk out of 5N and make it to the corner as JR claims, would she have passed any other surveillance cameras on her way back to Smallwood? I am assuming we know for a fact she did not make it to Smallwood because there are no entrances to Smallwood without cameras.
SeeingForThe1stTime
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From what I've read I just don't think she could have walked out of JR's on her own. BUT, that doesn't mean that they didn't carry her out and put her some place else. I don't mean 'dispose' of her, I mean just put her some place else. I remember in high school (and have heard similar stories many times) when some boys left a drunk and passed out girl in her own front yard. This girl was discovered by her parents but it's not impossible that they may have done something similar and then either someone else picked her up or she came around enough to attempt to get home and someone else came upon her leading to her disappearance. Outside of some situation like that, I just don't think, and the evidence supports, that she was in any condition to walk away.
SeeingForThe1stTime
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Yeah, and this is a big problem for me. If not because of the implication that there were others there that left there during this very crucial time frame then because it just highlights all that we don't know that might be important and that if we did know may possibly point in an completely different direction. So frustrating to put so much time and emotion into this case knowing the facts that might be necessary to put the pieces together just aren't being made available to the people trying to find her.
HT's "too far" remark was on a Fox News report in NY on Tuesday June 7. The previous day HT had tweeted "missing you always." Didn't she also recommend searching outside if Bloomington?
We've talked about this in the past, so I know I'm in the minority on this one, but I believe that HT quote has evolved and been taken out of context over time. I don't think she even said "Lauren or she" took things too far, but that 'things went too far'? IIRC, she had just been talking about how they often go out to the bar and walk home late at night - I didn't take the comment as necessarily placing blame on Lauren but more referring to the horrible outcome of what would have been a fairly normal night...?
I also think HT was in an awkward position, and it's hard to know her motivations. When she went to the media with JR's story, everyone thought she sounded suspicious and was hiding information, when it's more likely, IMO, that she was reading a pretty scripted statement from JR, and it's the story itself that was suspicious and full of holes.
Then there's the motivation for giving this statement -- Did he use her so that he could 'unofficially' tell a story that he wasn't committed to? He had a team of lawyers already, and could have given a statement himself at any time. Did HT believe him and want to speak up on his behalf? Or was she simply the only one who had this information and was speaking for Lauren by making it public? She is probably one of the only people who heard JR's first account of what happened, since he had to talk to her when she called looking for Lauren the day she went missing. Right after that, he lawyered up and stopped talking, even to her, it seems. So it's worth remembering that before HT went to the media, no one had any idea what happened - She basically confirmed the rumor that JR was the last to see Lauren and put a record out there of his early statements to her. This first hand statement was the only way the media could report on those rumors, since LE wasn't confirming anything.
Anyway, I don't really have an opinion about HT one way or the other - her role in speaking for JR just isn't entirely clear cut to me.
I also think HT was in an awkward position, and it's hard to know her motivations. When she went to the media with JR's story, everyone thought she sounded suspicious and was hiding information, when it's more likely, IMO, that she was reading a pretty scripted statement from JR, and it's the story itself that was suspicious and full of holes.
Then there's the motivation for giving this statement -- Did he use her so that he could 'unofficially' tell a story that he wasn't committed to? He had a team of lawyers already, and could have given a statement himself at any time. Did HT believe him and want to speak up on his behalf? Or was she simply the only one who had this information and was speaking for Lauren by making it public? She is probably one of the only people who heard JR's first account of what happened, since he had to talk to her when she called looking for Lauren the day she went missing. Right after that, he lawyered up and stopped talking, even to her, it seems. So it's worth remembering that before HT went to the media, no one had any idea what happened - She basically confirmed the rumor that JR was the last to see Lauren and put a record out there of his early statements to her. This first hand statement was the only way the media could report on those rumors, since LE wasn't confirming anything.
Anyway, I don't really have an opinion about HT one way or the other - her role in speaking for JR just isn't entirely clear cut to me.
I'm still amazed how in a case where we really know next to nothing for certain, every loose end, question, etc. about JW is explained away with random speculation and benefit of the doubt by many posters, and even believed he couldn't be involved, yet the smallest detail about 5N is taken the exact opposite.
I still say both parties should be POI 1A and 1B.
The only reason some things exist at all to speculate upon is because there has been some level of cooperation from the 5N camp (whether it lies is another question). Meanwhile, JW appears to have been fairly tight-lipped. And that seems to have paid dividends in the court of public opinion, even though statistically he should be the number 1 suspect. Instead, he seems to be down the list several spots but I'm not sure how anyone can put him there considering we really know nothing when we get right down to it.
I still say both parties should be POI 1A and 1B.
The only reason some things exist at all to speculate upon is because there has been some level of cooperation from the 5N camp (whether it lies is another question). Meanwhile, JW appears to have been fairly tight-lipped. And that seems to have paid dividends in the court of public opinion, even though statistically he should be the number 1 suspect. Instead, he seems to be down the list several spots but I'm not sure how anyone can put him there considering we really know nothing when we get right down to it.
Well, one obvious reason is that there's no evidence that JW was with Lauren at any point the night she went missing.
The POI at 5 N have been the focus of a lot of speculation mainly, IMO, because their stories don't add up and they have given conflicting and misleading information.
I don't think anyone has ruled out any scenario. But based on the info we have, there's nothing pointing to JW. If you think there should be more focus on JW, what questions do you have, or what do you think is worth focusing on?
The POI at 5 N have been the focus of a lot of speculation mainly, IMO, because their stories don't add up and they have given conflicting and misleading information.
I don't think anyone has ruled out any scenario. But based on the info we have, there's nothing pointing to JW. If you think there should be more focus on JW, what questions do you have, or what do you think is worth focusing on?
We actually know very little what lines up and what doesn't, let alone what might've been misleading because no official sources have shared much at all. Let alone have we heard much directly from any of the horses' mouths to make informed judgments. We speculate on speculation, rumors, assumptions, and guesses more than anything substantial at this point.
Then when someone does mention JW and any question marks there it seems like there's an immediate rush to explain away any of those questions with little more than speculation and guesses. It's an immediate rush to give him the benefit of the doubt.
IMHO It's absolutely crazy the extent that some give him the benefit of the doubt.
So in one case things go immediately to the negative file and in the other things go into the positive file via mere speculation. And this then deflects conversation away from JW. I don't get that. They should be as close to equal in these discussions until such time something or someone officially clears JW IMHO.
It's not when anyone wants to speculate or discuss 5N scenarios that bugs me, it's when JW does get mentioned there's a rush to give him every benefit of the doubt and move the conversation back to 5N exclusively. Anything and everything attached to 5N somehow points to guilt and anything and everything attached to JW just gets discounted and excuses made from thin air to give him the benefit of the doubt rather than maintain some suspicion there.
When you say:
That could be true. It's possible not even that is true though because there's a good chance that info wouldn't be shared (just as lot of other info isn't shared). More importantly, the timeframe in question (when she officially went missing and as far as we know was no longer on video) she wasn't seen with 5N group either apparently. So how can we say that isn't where he then becomes inserted in the picture? It means nothing that we don't see him with LS, particularly when we don't see anyone with LS at the time of her disappearance. It's a strawman argument at best to exclude JW just because as far as you know he wasn't seen with LS that night. Apparently neither was anyone else seen with her when she disappeared. That shouldn't exclude anyone from suspicion.
I mostly agree with you but when you say "when it's more likely, IMO, that she was reading a pretty scripted statement from JR, and it's the story itself that was suspicious and full of holes." that is one of the things that makes me most suspicious. I absolutely agree that she was in a difficult position, and its entirely possible that she was closer to JR than lauren, but even so why would she choose to give a statement either from him or in his defense? Her roommate/friend went to another friend's house, somehow disappeared and she proceeds as though Lauren is dead. How would she have known that unless JR had given her a different version than what he's said to the public? And if he said "yeah, she OD'd/passed out and we hid her/placed her somewhere" why would she choose to support him at lauren's expense? She was the first person to jump to his defense, its not like all their friends publicly rallied around him voicing support. It seems like she has a piece of the puzzle that everyone else is missing. In the first few days IMO it did seem possible that Lauren would turn up, not necessarily that she had left willingly, but she could have been abducted, hit her head, ended up unconscious in the hospital, etc. All of those were possibilities that could have worked with JR's story about what happened, and yet HT seems to know that Lauren is gone for good.
I just can't come up with a scenario where her statement/tweet aren't strange. If she believed JR 100%, why would she seem to think Lauren was dead? It just doesn't make sense to me. I don't necessarily think HT is involved, but I think she knows what happened that night.
No, that's really not a strawman argument at all. I didn't say that JW should be excluded from all suspicion. Your post suggested that it was absurd that JW is farther down the list of potential POI than the guys at 5 N. My response was that the focus is on the guys at 5 N because the evidence we have in this case raises questions about their stories, and they are the last known people to be with Lauren. There is not evidence that we know of that points to JW's involvement.
I find it doesn't really go anywhere to just state that people should be asking more questions about JW. I'm up for it - What questions then? Give us something to go on, maybe.
I think I'm probably one of the people who has been defending JW the most, so I'm going to try to explain my thinking. I'm at work and running on about two hours of sleep so I apologize if this doesn't make sense!
What we know from the POIs/Private investigators: JR and CR were with Lauren earlier in the night. Then it was just CR and Lauren. By the time they left Lauren's apartment complex Lauren was in very bad shape, and CR was apparently in far better shape (he could stand, was carrying her, responded to "is she ok" etc). Then, according to MB and JR they made it to 5N, MB put CR to bed and Lauren ended up at JR's. According to JR, she was alert enough to leave 5N and walk at least a little ways with him watching her.
For me, personally, I don't think Lauren sounds like she would have been able to stand by the time she made it to 5N, let alone walk away let alone seem in good enough shape to make it home. Because I don't believe she was capable of leaving, I don't believe what JR/CR/MB are saying because it seems to me that at the very best it is incredibly unlikely.
We don't know what JW did that night. We know what he says he was doing, but that could be the truth or false. The reason I don't think JW was responsible for her disappearance is because I'm guessing that if he was on tape following Lauren/walking around when he says he was asleep, he would have been bumped up to Suspect #1 and not just potential POI. I would also think that LE has his phone records, if he had been getting texts/calls alerting him to what Lauren was up to, not only would they have the records but they would have a time frame to focus on (ie if ZO texted him at 3am, LE could make the leap that if ZO had been texting him about Lauren, JW could have left his apartment after 3am and these are the potential routes he would have taken to Smallwoods or 5N and then check video).
Further, if JW did manage to meet up with/find Lauren, either the boys at 5N are covering for him (which seems unlikely) or she really did walk out of 5N and JW got to her before she made it onto a camera, and somehow disposed of her without either of them being caught on camera.
I have no real reason to think JW is lying, but IMO JR/CR are at the very least lying about what happened when CR and Lauren made it back to 5N. If evidence of JW's involvement came out I would be the first to want to look into it. I haven't read any theories about JW's involvement that explain how he would have caught up with Lauren and then hidden her without him or his vehicle being recorded on camera and that explain how the 5N timeline figures into it, but if anyone has one I might change my mind.
I'm sorry for the rambling post, I guess what it comes down to is that I can't figure out how JW could have done it, whereas I have trouble seeing a way that the 5N boys didn't do it. When questions pop up about the way JW acted after the fact I'm more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because I question how CR/JR/MB acted that night (and afterwards).
Quite frankly we don't really have any 'evidence' here. We have about as close to 'nothing' as you could possibly get when trying to piece together what happened. Even what we think we know could be the product of a bad re-telling, bad reporting, or even an official misinformation campaign to keep a POI from being overly aware of suspicions.
We've not seen videos. We've not heard from witnesses at any length at all, let alone seen or been able to pose questions to them. We've not been privy to police reports. We know reporters were wrong, or at least feel that later info proved them wrong, yet how do we really know what is 100% correct in the reporting? The civil suit is what the Spierers are alleging and not necessarily an accurate representation of what 5N statements may or may not say or agree with.
There were posts just a few days ago with questions about JW and like clockwork here come speculation to give him the benefit of the doubt and shift the discussion back to 5N.
I can see what's happened... The lack of real info has led us to this point. Some have grown tunnel-vision regarding 5N and now anything and everything is now 'evidence' that points to guilt. If it was that cut and dried the case would most likely be at a different stage entirely instead of growing ice.
Holly,
You make at least two assumptions-
One is that we know for an absolute fact just how bad of shape LS was in and that it must've been a situation where she was unable to walk. Be we here don't really know that at all. We haven't seen videos or know the credibility of the witnesses who might've said that. And we've certainly had no opportunity to speak with them directly. 5N, which could be lying of course, tells us she was able to walk. Since we've not really interviewed or heard directly from any of these witnesses how are we making a judgment on who is most credible? Also, 'after the fact' witnesses tend to embellish once they know of an outcome. If a witness know someone ended up missing then it wouldn't be unusual to tend to revisit the events in their mind and start changing perceptions unintentionally. Also, there are people that like media attention and a case like this could attract them. So the idea that she was incoherent and unable to walk could be anything from exactly that to a couple of people making things up. We just don't know.
#2 is that JW, if involved, would've been caught on videotape. One thing that most likely is certain is that whatever happened to LS all happened off video (otherwise the case would be solved). Therefore, that fact alone tells us that 'not' being on video is not mitigating evidence per se'.
Also, it's possible certain people could appear on video but simply be unrecognizable. Security videos aren't always easy to make out details.
You make at least two assumptions-
One is that we know for an absolute fact just how bad of shape LS was in and that it must've been a situation where she was unable to walk. Be we here don't really know that at all. We haven't seen videos or know the credibility of the witnesses who might've said that. And we've certainly had no opportunity to speak with them directly. 5N, which could be lying of course, tells us she was able to walk. Since we've not really interviewed or heard directly from any of these witnesses how are we making a judgment on who is most credible? Also, 'after the fact' witnesses tend to embellish once they know of an outcome. If a witness know someone ended up missing then it wouldn't be unusual to tend to revisit the events in their mind and start changing perceptions unintentionally. Also, there are people that like media attention and a case like this could attract them. So the idea that she was incoherent and unable to walk could be anything from exactly that to a couple of people making things up. We just don't know.
#2 is that JW, if involved, would've been caught on videotape. One thing that most likely is certain is that whatever happened to LS all happened off video (otherwise the case would be solved). Therefore, that fact alone tells us that 'not' being on video is not mitigating evidence per se'.
Also, it's possible certain people could appear on video but simply be unrecognizable. Security videos aren't always easy to make out details.
Yes, I can see it this way too... I genuinely don't know what to think of those early statements from HT. But, I just can't imagine why, if JR was involved in Lauren's disappearance, he would tell HT the story. To me it sounded like he told her the story he knew would be passed on to others - that's why he included the details like 'he had run out of alcohol' etc., which obviously weren't key details when the goal is to find a missing friend. But who knows. It is a bit strange that the assumption from the beginning (from everyone involved) seems to have been that Lauren was gone
I'm not 100% sure Monkey, but I don't think we have ever seen the actual report, only articles that talked about the report being filed? You could try searching back in early threads or in the media thread...
Incoherent and unable to walk comes from private investigators who viewed multiple videos of lauren where she was unable to walk without falling
Do you think the private investigators are embellishing or basking in the attention? When people can't walk without falling, hit their heads, and then fall face first without putting their arms up to stop themselves I think that constitutes bad shape.
Lauren not being on video is one thing, even if she made it out of 5N she didn't have very far to walk. JW walking around tracking lauren down, either killing her or finding her already dead, and then disposing of her body was also not caught on video. Obviously not everything is caught on video but if JW is responsible he's either incredibly lucky, or spent a long time mapping out every camera in bloomington and had this whole thing planned.
You keep saying "we have no evidence", I don't entirely disagree but we have a fair amount of evidence from the POIs and their lawyers, and the spierer's lawsuit and the Private investigators. We do know what JR and CR's stories are, not in vivid detail but we have the framework. From that framework I think it is impossible that she left 5N as JR says she did. If JW is guilty why is JR lying?
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