Italy - Sailing yacht sank off Italian coast, 15 rescued, 7 missing, 19 August 2024

[SpanishInquisition]

I’ve seen a few mentions of a concussion but I can’t find anything about that it - do you have a source? Thank you

It's my speculation that could explain why the Bayesian captain acted the way that he did rather than anything reported in the news. The only specific injury that I'm aware of is AB, who ended up in wheelchair due to being injured from broken glass.

 

[RedHaus]

3.50am OOW - "Captain, sorry to wake you but she's dragging her anchor."

Captain - "OK, lower the keel, start the engine and steer her into the wind. I'll be up in a minute"

If it had played out like that I suspect we'd all be totally unware that Mike Lynch's family owned a yacht called Bayesian.

RSBM
@Yellowbelly, not to make light of the situation, but you surely have a knack for calling attention to the crux of the matter. I could not agree more with your 'wish' as to how it could have played out.

 

[RedHaus]

No problem. I was pointing out that it is a safe heel. No matter if the boat is stationary or under sail. At 20/25/30 degrees the boat is not going to capsize. Boats regularly sit out at moorings, unattended, and get (safely) blown around.

I don't think that the yacht owner would have hired an inexperienced crew. And if she did, she is going to pay lots of dollars for that. Let alone the cost in human lives.

imo

No worries. I do think it's all about context. But we can agree to disagree.

That said I REALLY want to find historical weather radar data for that location 19-8 12:00am to 03:50am given the yacht's builder claims there was obvious reason for the crew to be concerned. I am sure investigators have that in hand by now.

That is my sleuthing mission for today.

That crazy downburst we've already confirmed with data had to have come from a thunderstorm. And while downbursts are hard to predict, a severe thunderstorm can be predicted. IMO.

 

[RedHaus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829824202204955031

Thanks, @Dotta. I found these nuggets:

"...Among theories being investigated are whether proper procedures were carried out by the drew to secure the yacht ahead of the storm which had been forecast and which had stopped trawlers heading out to sea.... There will also be focus on the keel of Bayesian which should have been deployed to its maximum length to help stability in and weather..."

p.s. good 'ol DM and their shoddy editing!

 

[Dotta]

Thanks, @Dotta. I found these nuggets:

"...Among theories being investigated are whether proper procedures were carried out by the drew to secure the yacht ahead of the storm which had been forecast and which had stopped trawlers heading out to sea.... There will also be focus on the keel of Bayesian which should have been deployed to its maximum length to help stability in and weather..."

p.s. good 'ol DM and their shoddy editing!

I think "good'ol" DM should have taken a peek into our discussion on WS
as we have pointed out ALL these issues here

Oh well...

For all WS Sailors

On the Sea...
In search of myself...

On the Sea...
I'm free
This is where I want to be ...

 

[ItalyReader]

It's my speculation that could explain why the Bayesian captain acted the way that he did rather than anything reported in the news. The only specific injury that I'm aware of is AB, who ended up in wheelchair due to being injured from broken glass.

A couple of articles I’m putting here - the first mentions a foot injury of one crew and the other mentions the captain was limping from a leg injury.

Sicily yacht sinking: body found confirmed to be chef Recaldo Thomas as missing passengers feared dead – as it happened

Thomas was one of ten crew members onboard Bayesian yacht, says Italian coastguard, as passengers including tech tycoon Mike Lynch remain missing

www.theguardian.com

MSN

 

[ch_13]

That crazy downburst we've already confirmed with data had to have come from a thunderstorm. And while downbursts are hard to predict, a severe thunderstorm can be predicted. IMO.

rsbm.

I do think there's a difference between how one might prepare for a severe thunderstorm compared to a more extreme weather event. To use an analogy, it's the difference between a homeowner bringing the patio furniture inside vs. sheltering in the basement.

The questions to me are:
1 - Did the captain and crew follow the boat's standard operating procedure based on what they knew at the time about the weather?
2 - Was the ship built to handle the type of weather event that it experienced?

My initial thought was that someone on the crew had screwed up and perhaps left a hatch open. But after reading more about how the boat's downflooding angle was only 45 degrees when the vents were open, then I am leaning more towards a design flaw that only became apparent when the boat was hit by the downburst. At which time everything happened so suddenly there wasn't anything more the crew could do to save the vessel.

I do wonder if there was a conflict between the boat's lineage as a racing vessel and its function as a super-yacht. What sort of trade-offs did the designers have to make to fit in the systems that a luxury vessel requires? And did they fully understand how those choices may have compromised the ship's stability?

 

[SpanishInquisition]

As I explained earlier, boats do not sit at anchor at their moorings (unattended) and simply stay still. They are buffeted around during storms, They heel way over. They do circles around their anchors. They still do not capsize.

There is a safe heeling range, because the boats are almost constantly in the water. In all kinds of weather. Whether people are in them or not.
20 degrees likely sits around the middle of that safe heeling range.

Anyway, at this point, I will need to agree to disagree. I see what you are saying. I just don't think it is correct, is all.

imo

Like I said, I'm aware of that. 20 degrees is not in the safe heeling range of the Bayesian for the weather conditions it was in. It should have been at like 10 degrees:
Operation of the vessel in cyclonic conditions particularly in the hours of darkness, where severe squalls are imminent, requires the recommended maximum steady heel angle to be reduced depending on the mean apparent wind speed in accordance with the curves presented below.
Example A) The Yacht is reaching, with a steady apparent wind speed of 15.3 knots. The mean heel angle is about 20 degrees. Forecasts and visible cumulo-nimbus clouds suggest squalls may be imminent. By plotting the heel angle and wind speed (point A on plot above) the indication is that the vessel will be in danger of heeling to the down flooding angle in squall of 30 knots. In order to increase safety from down flooding, say, to withstand squalls up to 40 knots, sails should be handed or reefed to reduce the mean heel angle to 11.5 degrees (point A1 on plot above) or less.

Exclusive: Loose Cannon Obtains Official Bayesian Stability Document

'Notes to Master' Reproduced Here Without Comment

loosecannon.substack.com

Reading the stability book is why I think in part there were design flaws. This vessel shouldn't have been rated as an Ocean Unlimited given how vulnerable it was to weather, like I agree with you in that for the vessel it was that 20 degrees should have been safe but that's not how the Bayesian was designed. Lots of the vessel's design seems to make it something other than a truly seaworthy oceangoing vessel, so a momentary mistake by the crew in bad weather can be fatal when other vessels would be just fine...a few minutes at 20 degrees heel in cyclonic weather and you're dead, which it shouldn't be that way in a well-designed oceangoing vessel.

 

[Dotta]

Safety at sea depends on several factors:

- the structure and condition of the ship,

- the skills and experience of the crew,

- the ability to anticipate and respond to changing weather conditions.

These are ABC of sailing.
Some things NEVER change.

Nature does NOT forgive mistakes.
Both the rich and the poor pay for them with their lives.

JMO

 

[ItalyReader]

Like I said, I'm aware of that. 20 degrees is not in the safe heeling range of the Bayesian for the weather conditions it was in. It should have been at like 10 degrees:
Operation of the vessel in cyclonic conditions particularly in the hours of darkness, where severe squalls are imminent, requires the recommended maximum steady heel angle to be reduced depending on the mean apparent wind speed in accordance with the curves presented below.
Example A) The Yacht is reaching, with a steady apparent wind speed of 15.3 knots. The mean heel angle is about 20 degrees. Forecasts and visible cumulo-nimbus clouds suggest squalls may be imminent. By plotting the heel angle and wind speed (point A on plot above) the indication is that the vessel will be in danger of heeling to the down flooding angle in squall of 30 knots. In order to increase safety from down flooding, say, to withstand squalls up to 40 knots, sails should be handed or reefed to reduce the mean heel angle to 11.5 degrees (point A1 on plot above) or less.

Exclusive: Loose Cannon Obtains Official Bayesian Stability Document

'Notes to Master' Reproduced Here Without Comment

loosecannon.substack.com

Reading the stability book is why I think in part there were design flaws. This vessel shouldn't have been rated as an Ocean Unlimited given how vulnerable it was to weather, like I agree with you in that for the vessel it was that 20 degrees should have been safe but that's not how the Bayesian was designed. Lots of the vessel's design seems to make it something other than a truly seaworthy oceangoing vessel, so a momentary mistake by the crew in bad weather can be fatal when other vessels would be just fine...a few minutes at 20 degrees heel in cyclonic weather and you're dead, which it shouldn't be that way in a well-designed oceangoing vessel.

This substack doc is fantastic.
In browsing quickly, this line jumped out at me:
"The Master should note that the presence of the vent and skylights significantly reduces the ability of the vessel to withstand down flooding and with these openings securely closed the safety of the vessel is enhanced considerably."

 

[al66pine]

Much of this info below about training & classification is new to me.
My Q's are below.

TRAINING
"Two levels of qualification...
" ... professional yachting courses such as Master of Yachts (MOY) and STCW, Basic Safety Training.
"Level 1..."
"Superyacht Deck Crew (includes Small Powerboat & RIB Master and VHF)
"Superyacht Interior Crew"
"Level 2
"Master of Yacht Training (MOY) – Mate 200 Ton/Coastal, Master of Yacht 200 Ton Limited and Master of Yacht 200 Ton Unlimited
STCW ‘95 Basic Training – (Standard of Training and Certification for Watchkeepers) 5 Modules over 6 days – required by the IMO (International Maritime Organisation) for employment on commercially operated yachts carrying passengers.
^ International Yacht Training Worldwide - Wikipedia

Also
"International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW) sets minimum qualification standards for masters, officers and watch personnel on seagoing merchant ships and large yachts.[2]"
^ STCW Convention - Wikipedia

Q 1. Is it likely or virtually certain that the Bayesian crew members would have had this training & met the certifications like above? Or other training & certs?


Q2. Someone (sorry, I can't find post atm) mentioned "OCEAN UNLIMITED" (I think referring to a yacht rating). Is there a link w further description handy?
For others, FWIW, wiki article on superyacht:
Superyacht - Wikipedia

Thanking all the posters for enlightening others in this thread w their sailing knowledge & experience. Much appreciated.

 

[ch_13]

This substack doc is fantastic.
In browsing quickly, this line jumped out at me:
"The Master should note that the presence of the vent and skylights significantly reduces the ability of the vessel to withstand down flooding and with these openings securely closed the safety of the vessel is enhanced considerably."

According to the posting from the previous captain, the vents had to remain open in order to use the generator and HVAC system. It just isn't realistic to expect the passengers on a multi-million dollar luxury yacht to sit around sweltering in the dark every time there's a bad storm.

 

[I am not Sherlock H.]

So sad and tragic to read of this ship’s loss and of the lives lost too. I am not a yachtsman or nautical person, so this question could be irrelevant. But was wondering, has there been any mention of how much water this yacht would typically ‘draw’? At least under calm conditions? And how that factors into discussion if it might?

There were also several messages up thread showing the evolving weather conditions, wind speed, gusts, temperature IIRC, etc. Are there any reports of how rapidly the barometric pressure changed if that was noted and what those readings were? MOO

 

[RedHaus]

Historical Weather Doppler Radar / Marine Alerts

As I said I would today, I have tried to find historical weather doppler radar and marine alerts for the hours preceding the Bayesian event, but no luck. I found some "pay" applications, but that is not in my budget. But I did find this!

European Severe Weather Database provides an interactive search capability that is quite amazing. Sadly after many refinements to my search attempts, I found nothing material. That doesn't mean there is none; OPs may find some!

The best I could come up with was a damaging lightening strike at ~02:30 on 19-8-2024 in Italy. Would that trigger a marine / weather alert as a strong thunderstorm? Perhaps. I did see the Bayesian event recorded, FWIW.

I will keep trying, but I welcome anyone who is a weather geek and may have specialized computer applications to try to find historical weather doppler radar or marine alerts.... the goal is to see what the crew may have known in advance.

 

[SpanishInquisition]

There's information coming out regarding the interrogation of the crewmember that was on watch, which if this is accurate could really point into how much of this was design flaw versus crew error. Now keep in mind from the stability document that downflooding begins at around 31 degrees and critical downflooding is around 40-45 degrees and both of these are less if doors/hatches/vents aren't sealed up plus there's also of the issue of the Area of Vanishing Stability with the keel up being about 75 degrees, which has been widely reported on:

Exclusive: Loose Cannon Obtains Official Bayesian Stability Document

'Notes to Master' Reproduced Here Without Comment

loosecannon.substack.com

Now here's what the watch has told investigators:
"I woke up the captain when the wind was 20 knots. He gave the order to wake up everyone else. I then put away the cushions and plants, closed the windows of the bow lounge and some hatches". This was told to investigators by Matthew Griffiths, the sailor who was on watch on the bridge on the Bayesian the night of the storm, the sailing ship that sank off the coast of Porticello (Palermo).
"The ship tilted and we were thrown into the water. Then we managed to get back on board and tried to save whoever we could," Griffiths said. "The boat was tilting and we were walking on the walls. We saved whoever we could, even Cutfield saved the little girl and her mother."

Marinaio Bayesian sentito dal pm. “Sbalzati in acqua e poi risaliti sullo yacht. Abbiamo salvato chi potevamo”

Matthew Griffiths, di guardia in plancia la notte del naufragio, ha ricostruito l’accaduto davanti agli investigatori. Nessuna scatola nera sul veliero. La difesa potrebbe chiedere consulenze meteo e ingegneristica. Tac sulle vittime, lunedì l’autopsia

www.quotidiano.net

It sounds like the watch may have woken the captain at around 3:30-3:40 AM and was then chasing cushions before the real bad weather hit. Then shortly after the captain was awoken the microburst hit tilting the vessel and sending the crew overboard, which certain parts of the vessel might not have been sealed since the crew was in the middle of doing that when they went overboard. One family had apparently been on deck before the bad weather struck, then AB made it on deck after the tilting and possibly one other family followed her shortly thereafter. The vessel, due to what I consider poor design, started flooding at whatever angle it was at with the flooding quickly reaching catastrophic levels. It sounds like the crew made heroic efforts to save passengers but at most could only save one couple who might not have been on deck when the crew got back on board, which basically it was game over for any of the passengers below deck once the vessel tilted as it quickly became impossible to escape. This doesn't completely absolve all of the crew, but it shows how vulnerable these vessels are, like to me realistically these don't seem like oceangoing vessels.

 

[SpanishInquisition]

According to the posting from the previous captain, the vents had to remain open in order to use the generator and HVAC system. It just isn't realistic to expect the passengers on a multi-million dollar luxury yacht to sit around sweltering in the dark every time there's a bad storm.

The engine room vents could only be closed if there was a fire emergency. During a water emergency it's a real conundrum as having the vents open increases capsize risk but without engines you really can't maneuver in the weather like how the SRBP captain was doing. There are ways of designing these vents for better safety, but doing so comes at a design cost.

 

[RedHaus]

Are there any reports of how rapidly the barometric pressure changed if that was noted and what those readings were?

RSBM
I can help with this part of your query, @I am not Sherlock H.

The barometric pressure dropped before the downburst event, but slightly. However, look below at the dramatic drop in temperature in the half hour preceding the event at 03:50am, as well as shifts in wind speed, direction and gusts.

It is as if this was a freak downburst out of nowhere.... but of course there may be more data I can't find. It makes me wonder though, how accurate was the Yacht's builder's contention that there were severe storms in the area?

This is historical data for Cinisi, Palermo, Italy on 19-8-2024 from the Weather Underground.

ETA: these data support @SpanishInquisition excellent reporting on the watchman's report.

 

[I am not Sherlock H.]

RSBM
I can help with this part of your query, @I am not Sherlock H.

The barometric pressure dropped before the downburst event, but slightly. However, look below at the dramatic drop in temperature in the half hour preceding the event at 03:50am, as well as shifts in wind speed, direction and gusts.

It is as if this was a freak downburst out of nowhere.... but of course there may be more data I can't find. It makes me wonder though, how accurate was the Yacht's builder's contention that there were severe storms in the area?

This is historical data for Cinisi, Palermo, Italy on 19-8-2024 from the Weather Underground.

View attachment 528274

Thank you RedHaus^^….. that is interesting and helpful. Now I am not a nautical person, yachtsman, nor a meteorologist. But you are right….. that is only IMO a very minimal change in barometric pressure. And one might infer there was no large ‘front’ coming in or out, quickly or slowly. Rather what occurred was quite rapid as some reports indicate. And you are also right, the large change in temperature drop, as well as wind direction, speed, and gusts. Rather remarkable.

I am reminded of a meteorological experiment we conducted in a Zoology class years ago in undergraduate college in North Carolina. We set out temperature and barometric pressure monitoring devices one late afternoon. And it was astounding how much the barometric pressure (and corresponding temperature) dropped and changed when a large storm over land arrived that evening, as recorded on the cylindrical paper chart we retrieved the next day. MOO

 

[RedHaus]

Now here's what the watch has told investigators:
"I woke up the captain when the wind was 20 knots. He gave the order to wake up everyone else. I then put away the cushions and plants, closed the windows of the bow lounge and some hatches".

RSBM
Excellent find, @SpanishInquisition. I agree with your assessment of the Bayesian's design being in part at fault for this tragedy, as I shared up thread. However, I also still question the crew's actions (and possibly their preparedness if there was severe thunderstorm activity in the area, which I have yet to find evidence of).

Anyhow, what I snipped from your post confuses / concerns me.

The captain, IMO, gave the correct order in response to the watchman waking him: "wake everyone else up". But from the way the watchman's statement is written, it sounds like rather than wake everyone up, he first put away cushions and plants and closed up windows and "some" hatches. And what hatches, if any, did he not close?

So I am left wondering, did the watchman in fact wake everyone up? And was "everyone" meant to reference all crew, or crew and passengers. IOW, I am still left with a sinking feeling more could have been done to get the sleeping passengers up onto the deck with life vests on (e.g. fire alarm, broadcast announcement, opening doors, etc.).

This statement from the watchman sadly does not abate that, although it leaves me more confident in the captain.

 

[SouthAussie]

So sad and tragic to read of this ship’s loss and of the lives lost too. I am not a yachtsman or nautical person, so this question could be irrelevant. But was wondering, has there been any mention of how much water this yacht would typically ‘draw’? At least under calm conditions? And how that factors into discussion if it might?

There were also several messages up thread showing the evolving weather conditions, wind speed, gusts, temperature IIRC, etc. Are there any reports of how rapidly the barometric pressure changed if that was noted and what those readings were? MOO

I am not sure what levels of water the Bayesian would have taken on normally, but all yachts (that I have been on) have a bilge pump.
They were fairly regularly checked to ensure they were working properly - that water was pumping out - which is how I know this.


The function of the bilge pump is to remove water that collects in the bilge, which is the bottom of the inside of the hull. Most of the time, water that collects in the bilge is incidental:

• It could be rain water or water from spray collecting in the boat;
• Wash-down water that collects in the bilge while the boat is being cleaned;
• Or water from built-in coolers that drain to the bilge.

Bilge Pump Basics: What is it, and How Should You Use It?

A bilge pump is a piece of equipment on a boat that is used to remove water that collects in the bilge, or at the bottom of the inside of the hull. It's important to learn where the bilge pump is located on a boat, and when you should use it.

www.discoverboating.com