MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #4

[Rocky1]

Interesting.

Just building on that...how long would the killer need? While it's impossible to be precise, in my opinion it could have been as little as 20 minutes from when he parked the car to when he took off after the crime. That would be the minimum time. While that's a long time to have the car on the side of the road - it's not an eternity; especially if it was partially out of sight such as a little way down the cart path.

I'm having a hard time believing the car was parked in the path, Here's why.
If it was, that grass was high enough where it would have been matted down from the tires. I would think LE would have brought that up at the first press conference, but they didn't till the second, and only mentioned a car possibly being parked "along BSR", not "in" the path.
I do think he could have pulled it off in 20 minutes, but I think he spent a lot more time then that, especially if you are with DeDee's belief that he was enjoying himself. From the looks of the burned area, it looked like the flames were fairly high, so it must have taken a while to build a fire that large. I'll say at least an hour. JMO.

 

[searunner]

Why after 3 1/2 months are they just now getting the vehicle description and color out? This doesn't make one iota of sense. Unless the police are using this as a ruse to detract from the actual killer. Maybe sluethers are getting too close to the truth? Or, are they hoping the killer will let his defenses down as he knows he wasn't driving a dark SUV.


Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk

I'm with you that it seems odd that this info is just coming out now, as I said in my post a bit earlier today. Rocky's conjectures are possible (that they don't have much and are kind of grasping at this or even that the dark SUV could have belonged to LE and the sighting or sighting were later that day). But for some reason, I seem to think that this also could not be as straightforward as it appears.

Of course, anything is possible, since we has so very little info.

On returning to the crime scene.... that doesn't seem likely to me. Way too risky. From the info we can gleam (his DNA on Vanessa, yet no naming of POI), it doesn't seem like he's in DNA database. Why risk returning? Of course, this is assuming intelligence, which I don't necessarily think we can assume.

 

[Joshua M]

I appreciate your analysis Rocky1

If the car was not obscured, then I think it lessens the chances that the driver passed her on her run/walk and then pulled over further up the road. If you were a young lady and had seen a car go passed you and then, further up a long/deserted road, that car was pulled over to the side of the road with nobody around....would you continue your walk up that road? I'm a guy and can defend myself, but I don't know whether I would even continue up the road in those circumstances.

 

[Rocky1]

One other thought as to why he may have been dropped off is this.
If the SUV was there, why not take her someplace else? That town is full of dirt roads where people don't travel on for days.

 

[Rocky1]

I appreciate your analysis Rocky1

If the car was not obscured, then I think it lessens the chances that the driver passed her on her run/walk and then pulled over further up the road. If you were a young lady and had seen a car go passed you and then, further up a long/deserted road, that car was pulled over to the side of the road with nobody around....would you continue your walk up that road? I'm a guy and can defend myself, but I don't know whether I would even continue up the road in those circumstances.

Exactly. which brings me to believe he was dropped off, or there wasn't an SUV at all.

 

[Joshua M]

One other thought as to why he may have been dropped off is this.
If the SUV was there, why not take her someplace else? That town is full of dirt roads where people don't travel on for days.

I guess the difficulty of transporting another live adult in a car.

Unless you had ropes etc. or put her in the trunk (do SUVs have trunks in America where other people can't see in?) it would be difficult to do.

Plus there could be the fear that her DNA would then be in your vehicle.

 

[Rocky1]

Why after 3 1/2 months are they just now getting the vehicle description and color out? This doesn't make one iota of sense. Unless the police are using this as a ruse to detract from the actual killer. Maybe sluethers are getting too close to the truth? Or, are they hoping the killer will let his defenses down as he knows he wasn't driving a dark SUV.


Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk

If LE is playing that game, it is a dangerous game to play. It could entice him to act again, if he feels like he got away with it.

 

[Rocky1]

I guess the difficulty of transporting another live adult in a car.

Unless you had ropes etc. or put her in the trunk (do SUVs have trunks in America where other people can't see in?) it would be difficult to do.

Plus there could be the fear that her DNA would then be in your vehicle.

No trunk, and the DNA part makes sense.

 

[JEF]

"I know they blocked the road off, but they may have done that after the body was found, meaning cars would have still been traveling on BSR before she was found, and may have seen a State Police SUV. far fetched, but maybe?"

I had the same thought, Rocky - I don't think that's far-fetched at all. Also, a dark SUV is pretty vague - and there are lot of dark SUVs around here. Not sure what their game is right now. Could be they're trying to keep the case alive and generate new tips - not from witnesses that day (unlikely anyone's going to remember anything now) but from someone who may have developed suspicions about the killer.

Here's a snippet I only saw on FOX tonight -

“They may have additional information that they're not sharing. They may have developed information about a person or persons of interest,” an investigator told FOX25.

http://www.fox25boston.com/news/police-searching-for-suv-in-relation-to-princeton-jogger-murder/467889519

Maybe a possible POI also happens to drive a dark SUV?

I'm still struggling with the way crime was committed. But you're right - she was not far from the road at all. I still also believe the cemetery played some role, not sure how. Another thing I noticed the other day - she almost certainly would have been running on that side of the road where it happened. It's way too narrow on the other side at the point on the run. That, in conjunction with the location of the path at that point, makes me absolutely believe this was planned ahead of time. The odds of someone just happening upon a spot where she would have been running with the traffic instead of against it at a place where there happens to be a path and good camouflage seems unlikely.

I hope someone comes forward. But anyone with information also needs to be very cautious. I believe this person is a sociopath who has probably killed before and would do so again if pushed to a certain point. Just a gut feeling.

 

[Rocky1]

Although when you look at Brook Station Road in Google Earth, you see no cars, I have been down that road at least 6 times since the crime, and there hasn't been one time where a vehicle isn't either in front of me, or in my mirror.
The timing had to be good.

 

[Rocky1]

"I know they blocked the road off, but they may have done that after the body was found, meaning cars would have still been traveling on BSR before she was found, and may have seen a State Police SUV. far fetched, but maybe?"

I had the same thought, Rocky - I don't think that's far-fetched at all. Also, a dark SUV is pretty vague - and there are lot of dark SUVs around here. Not sure what their game is right now. Could be they're trying to keep the case alive and generate new tips - not from witnesses that day (unlikely anyone's going to remember anything now) but from someone who may have developed suspicions about the killer.

Here's a snippet I only saw on FOX tonight -

“They may have additional information that they're not sharing. They may have developed information about a person or persons of interest,” an investigator told FOX25.

http://www.fox25boston.com/news/police-searching-for-suv-in-relation-to-princeton-jogger-murder/467889519

Maybe a possible POI also happens to drive a dark SUV?

I'm still struggling with the way crime was committed. But you're right - she was not far from the road at all. I still also believe the cemetery played some role, not sure how. Another thing I noticed the other day - she almost certainly would have been running on that side of the road where it happened. It's way too narrow on the other side at the point on the run. That, in conjunction with the location of the path at that point, makes me absolutely believe this was planned ahead of time. The odds of someone just happening upon a spot where she would have been running with the traffic instead of against it at a place where there happens to be a path and good camouflage seems unlikely.

I hope someone comes forward. But anyone with information also needs to be very cautious. I believe this person is a sociopath who has probably killed before and would do so again if pushed to a certain point. Just a gut feeling.

I agree that she was walking/jogging with the traffic.
That road is very wide, and not only would she have possibly seen the perp coming up on her, the risk that a car driving down BSR would have seen him dragging her across the road would have been very high.

 

[Joshua M]

Although when you look at Brook Station Road in Google Earth, you see no cars, I have been down that road at least 6 times since the crime, and there hasn't been one time where a vehicle isn't either in front of me, or in my mirror.
The timing had to be good.

It's great to have some feedback on the traffic on that road. The general impression I have derived from this thread is that it's relatively deserted or at least isolated - and the Google Maps link certainly supports that impression. If however it does get regular traffic, then it would be extremely high risk to park your car there unobstructed for 20 minutes or so (absolute bare minimum) while carrying out the crime. That would result in a number of positive sightings.

 

[Rocky1]

"I know they blocked the road off, but they may have done that after the body was found, meaning cars would have still been traveling on BSR before she was found, and may have seen a State Police SUV. far fetched, but maybe?"

I had the same thought, Rocky - I don't think that's far-fetched at all. Also, a dark SUV is pretty vague - and there are lot of dark SUVs around here. Not sure what their game is right now. Could be they're trying to keep the case alive and generate new tips - not from witnesses that day (unlikely anyone's going to remember anything now) but from someone who may have developed suspicions about the killer.

Here's a snippet I only saw on FOX tonight -

“They may have additional information that they're not sharing. They may have developed information about a person or persons of interest,” an investigator told FOX25.

http://www.fox25boston.com/news/police-searching-for-suv-in-relation-to-princeton-jogger-murder/467889519

Maybe a possible POI also happens to drive a dark SUV?

I'm still struggling with the way crime was committed. But you're right - she was not far from the road at all. I still also believe the cemetery played some role, not sure how. Another thing I noticed the other day - she almost certainly would have been running on that side of the road where it happened. It's way too narrow on the other side at the point on the run. That, in conjunction with the location of the path at that point, makes me absolutely believe this was planned ahead of time. The odds of someone just happening upon a spot where she would have been running with the traffic instead of against it at a place where there happens to be a path and good camouflage seems unlikely.

I hope someone comes forward. But anyone with information also needs to be very cautious. I believe this person is a sociopath who has probably killed before and would do so again if pushed to a certain point. Just a gut feeling.

I agree, planned ahead, and at a place he knew and was comfortable with. So, if he knew the path, how so? A local.

 

[Rocky1]

It's great to have some feedback on the traffic on that road. The general impression I have derived from this thread is that it's relatively deserted or at least isolated - and the Google Maps link certainly supports that impression. If however it does get regular traffic, then it would be extremely high risk to park your car there unobstructed for 20 minutes or so (absolute bare minimum) while carrying out the crime. That would result in a number of positive sightings.

There is a state road that runs parallel to BSR that although is more narrow, has a lot more traffic, and no shoulder. in MOO BSR would be my choice to ride a bike on, between the two, because of the shoulder. That's why I thought the perp would have been on a bike, and would have known the area.

 

[JEF]

That is why the car on BSR has always troubled me. I still think he cut through the woods and Rocky may be right about the vehicle. I think something else is going on there.

Rocky, you're also spot on about the road. I was there the other day at the site and at least four? or more cars drove by. Really, really risky. Granted, he could have pulled his vehicle onto the path but not far because it's very uneven and there's a log across the path at around 30 yds. Also, if anybody saw that they might have reported it because it's private property.

Either way, I now believe it happened very quickly. Even with the foliage being as thick as it was (another thing I believe that was taken into account when planning the crime - all speaks of premeditation), a biker or runner passing by might would have been a possibility. I still go for a surprise attack, possibly w/ stun gun or taser, quick end, flare gun to get rid of DNA and then a quick cut through wood to the cemetery, where he jumps into his car and heads out of town.

I don't believe whoever it was lived in town. They've combed that town, I'm guessing.

 

[JEF]

Though it is interesting that the site where the body was found is not that far beyond where the fallen tree across the path is. As if a car backed up to that point, dragged her just past it and pulled back onto the road quickly??

 

[Rocky1]

That is why the car on BSR has always troubled me. I still think he cut through the woods and Rocky may be right about the vehicle. I think something else is going on there.

Rocky, you're also spot on about the road. I was there the other day at the site and at least four? or more cars drove by. Really, really risky. Granted, he could have pulled his vehicle onto the path but not far because it's very uneven and there's a log across the path at around 30 yds. Also, if anybody saw that they might have reported it because it's private property.

Either way, I now believe it happened very quickly. Even with the foliage being as thick as it was (another thing I believe that was taken into account when planning the crime - all speaks of premeditation), a biker or runner passing by might would have been a possibility. I still go for a surprise attack, possibly w/ stun gun or taser, quick end, flare gun to get rid of DNA and then a quick cut through wood to the cemetery, where he jumps into his car and heads out of town.

I don't believe whoever it was lived in town. They've combed that town, I'm guessing.

Interesting Jef. I haven't seen the cemetery on Conner Lane. Would the neighbor where Conner Lane ends be able to see a car parked? I would think he would have had to cut through that neighbors property?

 

[Joshua M]

I agree, planned ahead, and at a place he knew and was comfortable with. So, if he knew the path, how so? A local.

We can only work on likelihoods and possibilities, and I would say that it's certainly more likely than not that it was it was a local - knew the perfect road to commit the crime; probably knew that there is no housing around the immediate area; knew that taking her down the cart path she would get no help and nobody would hear or see; and maybe because he is a local he had perhaps seen other young ladies running along this road perhaps even on previous Sundays.

With the burning, that could also support the fact that he is a local. Maybe he thought, as he lives locally, that he may come under suspicion and be forced to give a DNA sample (and a lot of people believe that the police can force anyone and everyone to give a DNA sample). He certainly didn't attempt to destroy DNA on the basis that he was in the National DNA Database, as it appears he wasn't.

So yeah, more likely a local but it's hard to rule anything out as we know so little.

 

[donttt]

Just remember crime of opportunity is real http://www.southcoasttoday.com/article/19990723/News/307239999. More similar to this case http://www.masslive.com/news/worcester/index.ssf/2014/12/peggy_sue_calvillos_murderer_c.html

I've felt threatened many times, but as I've been told "there is very rarely a random killer". Why can this not be a rare situation? I think it is. It really seems like it.

 

[Rocky1]

We can only work on likelihoods and possibilities, and I would say that it's certainly more likely than not that it was it was a local - knew the perfect road to commit the crime; probably knew that there is no housing around the immediate area; knew that taking her down the cart path she would get no help and nobody would hear or see; and maybe because he is a local he had perhaps seen other young ladies running along this road perhaps even on previous Sundays.

With the burning, that could also support the fact that he is a local. Maybe he thought, as he lives locally, that he may come under suspicion and be forced to give a DNA sample (and a lot of people believe that the police can force anyone and everyone to give a DNA sample). He certainly didn't attempt to destroy DNA on the basis that he was in the National DNA Database, as it appears he wasn't.

So yeah, more likely a local but it's hard to rule anything out as we know so little.

I agree that anything is possible, and nothing can be ruled out.
I know the chances are high they do have DNA, I'm not convinced that they do. They said it was a male, but there are other ways they could have come to that conclusion, setting aside that the law of average says it's a male. The reason I question that is there has been so much concern that the same perp committed both this crime, and the crime in queens. (KV) I wonder why they haven't ruled that part out at least? I don't see how that could jeopardize the investigation. They do have DNA from the queens case.
Could be and most likely I am wrong, but it's a thought I have had.