MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[ThinkHard]

None of what I said was speaking for you. Sorry if it sounded that way.

I don't see who would have known that she was there that day and running at that time. To me based on her running habits the time of her run was very likely something that she decided on after waking up that day. So who could have known that? you said you meant someone who would know that she would be running on that specific day, and targeted her at that specific time and location. But who would know that?

On a run during similar hot weather conditions on August 22, 2015, she ran at 9:30 in the morning ( we runners do this often to avoid the heat of the day during this time of year)

How long in advance do you think she had this run time planned? This is a key issue for me and it seems to be a sticking point. Running in the summer is something I am very familiar with. In looking at about 20 of her runs, including about a half dozen in Princeton, there is nothing that suggests to me that her run was at a set time that day. I know the media stated generally that she had a habit of running before returning to New York City, But that doesn't immediately before.




Who would know about a run that specific afternoon. Surely there was no explicit mention of it in text messages- or if there was, then that person had been ruled out by now. We are 4 months in. If it was someone very close to her they would have keyed in on this person and they wouldn't be asking about a dark SUV. JMO.

This could be a key component of the case: I would love some evidence that someone would know that she was running at that specific time. To me that knowledge wouldn't be available until she made that decision, that day.

The other thing is that, I know you keep saying her running times where all over the place and perhaps a year prior they were. But it was stated in more then one article that she had a regular routine of taking a walk/run just before boarding the bus to NYC (this was stated by LE as was told to them by her family) and reported in multiple media outlets. So I think closer to the time of the murder she did in fact regular take that walk/run around the same time every Sunday. As this is what her family said to LE. And I am more inclined to believe that, then to base her runs off year old running times posted before she set her runs to private.

I actually wonder if those walks could have been to say goodbye to someone each week, and her running schedule changed and went private when this man came into her life...just a possibility...as a standing appointment wouldn't have a phone trail perse.

 

[ThinkHard]

After the SUV info. was put out by LE , a neighbor was on TV saying they had returned to ask neighbors questions and he had voluntarily given his DNA. LE know what they are doing and clearly have reason to be taking voluntary DNA from neighbors 'after' the SUV info was put out. So no, what you said about them clearing people nearby prior to that doesn't fit.

They have been asking for Locals to voluntarily give up DNA since the beginning of the case, way before the SUV info was released. I know many people who have given up there DNA in these door to door checks.

 

[Evey]

They have said they believe she fought her attacker and he likely had scrapes and scratches. No they didn't say WHERE they thought this struggle took place but they certainly never said they didn't find evidence it took place in a certain place. So just because we do not know where the struggle took place doesn't mean the police don't and they may in fact have evidence on the ground that a struggle did in fact take place there...we just aren't privy to that info....but you seem to be assuming because we aren't privy to info it must. It exist...and I think that is a very grave mistake...the police have said very little in the case...you shouldn't dismiss things simply because we haven't been told one way or the other.

Oh I know they have info we aren't privy to. I just try to look at things from all possible ways when we have ones like this with such little info. I knew she fought him but I guess for instance KV the cops told us where there was a struggle but with this case there obviously is one once he attacaks but them not saying there was one by where she was found(unless they've said she fought him back here) makes me wonder if it was in a house or car. With how vague the details have been I think either they know a lot we don't abd have a suspect or they won't for a few years.

 

[ThinkHard]

For The 9:30 AM run on Aug 22 almost exactly one year earlier, high that day was 82. Not as hot as the day she was killed.

But there's a window of comfort for running outside, and 82 is definitely borderline oppressive for running. The low that day was 72, much more comfortable. My guess is that was a factor in when she ran.

And I know that you say a lot can change in a year and that's certainly true. But people's running habits are a lot like their eating habits. If you hate celery and sushi this year, chances are good the same will be true in 5 years.
If you're someone who runs based on body energy and comfort level, weather, and schedule, that isn't likely to change. I've been running for about 6 years. My schedule looks a lot like hers from last year. When I look at the timing pattern of her runs, it's meaningful to me, I can understand it.

To me, the biggest possibility for any change in her historical running habit would be the crohns diagnosis. And if that had an effect, I would expect it to have slowed her down some. I would expect even less of a chance that she would run in that heat at that time. It was 88 degrees with 84 percent humidity. Awful weather for running.

One more thing THAT JUST HIT ME ABOUT THIS

Based on these weather observations and her normal distances, I seriously doubt she would have been planning one of her longer runs that day. I would say she was going for 3 slow miles, not the 6 mile loop which included BALL HILL ROAD.

Keep in mind in that last year though she both took a job with google and moved to NYC and was diagnosed with Crohns...that's a lot of changes that certainly would impact her running schedule.

 

[Kickoff61]

She could have been familiar with him for various reasons besides a relationship, leading her not to think much of his approach to her in the beginning.

 

[ThinkHard]

After working all week then taking a bus to Princeton, I'm sure that she didn't "go out" much while there. If she was looking for social time with peers, wouldn't the city be the obvious choice? She was going to Princeton for family or health reasons (could be physical could be mental). She went out to eat with her father at one of the nicest restaurants in Worcester the night previous.

You never know. When I'd come home from the city I'd hang out in Worcester because it's where you would run into old HS friends. I had my NYC friends of course and hanging out in the city was very different then Worcester bars...but when you are home it can be fun to run into old faces...and everyone pretty much goes to the same places.

ps 111 is super overrated, I mean it's ok, but it's far from the best of Worcester.
The absolute best restaurant in Worcester is Baba. If you like sushi go there! It's on par with Nobu and I don't say that lightly.

 

[Evey]

This has already been done...reread through old post, don't expect others to do the work for you...many of us have been here since the beginning of this case...if you come in late we welcome you with open arms...but it is expected you read up a bit instead of just asking everyone to fill I things for you we have been over lots before. The window has long been established to be btw 1:15-3pm

I wasn't asking people to tell me that, that's why there wasn't a question mark on the end....Because it isn't a question for anyone. Especially not anyone not LE because I doubt anyone on here would be able to tell us exact times and times of everything she did all day. I have been reading about this case since it happened and am well aware of the window of time I'm talking about the various times she spent doing this or that which we don't know of. When I say timeline I meant of her whole day. Because of everyone saying she was at the store. As in we most likely won't know until LE says but I wish we knew so we could possibly eliminate options abd ideas. If let's say for example someone could say she was at home after the store before her jog at this time until this time then we might be able to safely say they didn't follow her from the store.

 

[ThinkHard]

I can't speak for all, but,I see younger women that walk on my road, and have never see them dressed in spandex just to walk. There is one that dresses is Spandex, but I have never seen her walking, always running.
I'm just trying to make your scenario, examples/experiences fit, along with her history that you posted, and at 1 pm, (the hottest time of the day) along with you saying that you base your running around the weather, and 82* and above being oppressive, I find it hard to believe she planned on running at all that day. I may very well be wrong, but I don't think she would dress in tight spandex just to walk, but more so in light colored, loose fitting shorts.
I do believe he may have seen her earlier that day, but only minutes earlier, on BSR.
I also believe this guy knew her routine as far as running that route, but being that hot that day, (84-88*, more towards the 88* at 1pm) he wasn't sure she'd be on that road that particular day, so I am saying he wasn't in the woods all day waiting for her.

Yes and to this point if historically (at least based on year old data not what LE was told by her family), she never ran at peak heat...then choosing 1pm would certainly seem out of her norm...so again I can't help but wonder if there was in fact another motivation for her "walk" that day. And if perhaps this had become her new norm for a reason.

 

[ForensicMass]

ForensicMass, I do find your use of scientific methodology helpful. Joshua M good to hear from you. ALL posters, appreciate your thoughts. I do not like the turbulence that sometimes comes up in all of these, now 5, threads, but all in all I think there is a lot of good thinking and discussion, and I want to read everyone's posts. Our common bond is caring about this horrible murder.

Thanks kindly. I have an odd mind, my friends tell me. I'm just hoping to offer a different perspective. I realize I need to refine the tones of my writing as it sounds harsh and sharp, even to me, when I read it back, but it's not how I mean it. I'm just here to toss out ideas that I had not seen completely hashed out in the first 4.8 threads. Conversation had slowed considerably and seems to have picked up greatly, so I'm happy with that! To anyone who has felt bulldozed by me, I never mean to make anyone feel that way and am sorry! I think the sparring of ideas in general though, can be a good thing. I have certainly had to think of things differently since joining the conversation.

Maybe it's me, but I do feel like there is progress being made here. The More each scenario is discussed the more we are able to distinguish plausible theories from those that are really unlikely.

With all of the info discussed to date, and incorporating what LE has been saying,

It does seem to be someone local, and to me it does seem like someone who had physically seen VANESSA at some point prior to the incident. My feeling is that same day, triggering the events that followed.

I think there certainly could be value to her old running data, even though almost a year old. Here's why:
1-People are generally resistant to change and creatures of habit. Most people who establish a habit around the way they exercise hold on to it.
2-Princeton is a small town that really hasn't changed much in 100 years. I've worked there for 10 years on and off and it's always the same thing there. I see some of the same people, the atmosphere is the same. If this guy was a local, very likely he was there back then too. And if we think he saw her running previously, it would seem that he could have seen her in summer 2015.

I am very interested in any information regarding the happenings in Princeton during the first week of September 2015, as we know Vanessa was there, and was visible to the community, running on the street on the 3,4,&6th. On those days she ran at 7:14AM on Thursday, 12:02 PM on Friday, and 10:25 AM on Sunday.

I am especially interested in police log entries about suspicious vehicles during this period. I have to dig into the logs. I see the logs posted for sept 6th. (Thanks to whoever dug that up!! Can we also get the prior week to see calls on the 3rd?)

 

[ThinkHard]

Many may not agree because of the SUV report from LE, (and again, I don't doubt many people saw an SUV parked, I am just not convinced that it was involved) But I am still having trouble dismissing the bicycle theory, only because I can't find a good reason yet. I think he saw her on that road before, and that day, just happened to pass her when she left her mothers house, pedaled past her, picked up his bike and carried in into the cart path so it wouldn't leave tracks, walked back out, and hid in that gully to the right of the cart path. Then he waited for her and ambushed her from behind, having a little more time, because she was walking and not running. The fact that nobody saw him/her, was just luck.
I also think this guy was younger, late teens maybe,(why his DNA isn't in the system yet) and when I was in my teens, riding my bike in 90* heat, didn't matter.
Again I could be totally off base but I can't see why yet.

edit:
Just to add, that would also explain the FBI profiler, saying that he is local. and it would also explain that he doesn't have to live so close that he was canvased by LE in the close range of the crime scene.

It took LE 3 months to release the info on the SUV....something tells me that info was vetted extensively and LE has very very very good reason to know it's involved. There were also a lot of reports of trucks and even light colored vehicles that day on BSR too...yet this is the vehicle info they feel is connected to this case...so it is my belief they have very very good reason for thinking this regardless if we know what they know. If it was a mistaken sighting....or a coincidence I think over 3 months LEvwould have worked through those kinks....let's give them a little credit. I think the SUV was 100% connected or I don't think LE would have released that.

So I think it serves us better to build possibilities around that fact, rather then build other stories where that fact doesn't fit and dismiss it because it doesn't fit.

To me it's obvious it's part of the story...so we should focus on how. JMO

 

[Aleph]

Her missing running shoe is a trophy ? Was it running that first drew the perp to VM ? I was interested because one of KV's running shoes was found a ways from her body. I think her killer may have dropped it as he ran from the scene. jmo

Is there of a variant of foot fetishist that's into sweaty women's running shoes? Seriously wondering about that.


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[ThinkHard]

She grew up in Leominster, her aunt moved to the Princeton house c. 2005 and her mom was there also, around that time, I believe it was determined, could be mistaken. I know She didn't grow up there, and went to private school in Worcester. But I'm sure she must have known a couple people from town. Maybe not the network she would have had if she went to public school with the other kids from Princeton.

Her Aunt and Uncle have been living in the Princeton house for decades. The mom moved there after the divorce like you said around 2005. Which would have been about VM's last year and a half in HS. So not sure if she was living in Princeton as a senior in HS or stayed in Leominster with her dad.

Also just FYI but Bancroft kids often come from the Wachusett towns (Holden, Paxton, Princeton, Rutland, sterling)....so she would have gone to school at Bancroft with "local" kids. And it wouldn't be uncommon for her to hang out with public school kids through mutual associations. I went to WRHS but had 2 good friends at Bancroft and new most of their class. The point is she may have had more local associations then might be immediately obvious. For example she was friends with the kid from Rutland who died in the one way crash on the mass pike even though he went to WRHS.

 

[ThinkHard]

I wondered that too. Her second mile was a bit faster than her first, 10 mins versus 12.....

I just looked at a graph of that run and it's very weird. It appears she stopped very briefly at about 5-7 mins in, or was barely advancing. Then again 2 minutes later same thing. My best guess is phone call. Changing music or looking at phone, or may someone pulling up beside her. The last half of the run she does actually speed up to 8:30 mile, which is fairly fast for her, based on her other runs. The graph shows she actually does run.

Interesting 5-7 minutes in....wouldn't that put her aboitbatbthe cart path?

 

[ForensicMass]

The other thing is that, I know you keep saying her running times where all over the place and perhaps a year prior they were. But it was stated in more then one article that she had a regular routine of taking a walk/run just before boarding the bus to NYC (this was stated by LE as was told to them by her family) and reported in multiple media outlets. So I think closer to the time of the murder she did in fact regular take that walk/run around the same time every Sunday. As this is what her family said to LE. And I am more inclined to believe that, then to base her runs off year old running times posted before she set her runs to private.

I actually wonder if those walks could have been to say goodbye to someone each week, and her running schedule changed and went private when this man came into her life...just a possibility...as a standing appointment wouldn't have a phone trail perse.

I completely disagree about the standing appointment Theory. I never have believed that she was going to meet someone that day there is just simply zero evidence to support it. This girl could have whatever she wants in life. By all accounts she had things in order and certainly would not have to meet people secretly. JMO.

Also to quote you, where does it say EXPLICITLY that her runs were "she had a regular routine of taking a walk/run JUST before boarding the bus". Please provide a link to some video or article evidence which states this EXPLICITY. I think this is simply an Oversimplification or generalization of her usual "routine" of exercising while in Princeton. I could be wrong and you could be right. If you can show me some actual evidence, I'd be inclined to join your side.

And that doesn't make sense to begin with because JUST before boarding the bus to NYC we had to have someone drive her 35 minutes to Worcester.

 

[ThinkHard]

We will know. We just need some stubborn, tireless detectives on the case. This creep can't hide forever. If he didn't leave DNA I'd say fair chance we never figure it out. But he did.

I want to see all the Princeton police logs from week of sept 6 2015. Anyone know where I can find them? Wonder if any surveillance from that time still exists at Worcester road Bank. Specifically around 10-11 am.

The Landmark online. They are all public record and they come out every Thursday.

 

[ThinkHard]

SOURCE: Shirley Police Department

Runner calls police after spotting vehicle

Updated: 10:24 PM EDT Aug 31, 2016


I don't recall us discussing this 911 report of an attack on a jogger after VM was murdered but in the same month.

We have.

 

[ForensicMass]

Interesting 5-7 minutes in....wouldn't that put her aboitbatbthe cart path?

Yea, I thought the same. It was 0.45 miles from her house. I might. Be able to check the distance on where she slowed. I'll check and get back to you.

 

[ThinkHard]

Oh I know they have info we aren't privy to. I just try to look at things from all possible ways when we have ones like this with such little info. I knew she fought him but I guess for instance KV the cops told us where there was a struggle but with this case there obviously is one once he attacaks but them not saying there was one by where she was found(unless they've said she fought him back here) makes me wonder if it was in a house or car. With how vague the details have been I think either they know a lot we don't abd have a suspect or they won't for a few years.

Of course we don't have all the facts so we have to make best guesses as we hash out theories...but too me that doesn't include saying something couldn't have occurred in a spot simple because we haven't been told where it occurred.

But I do know in this case there has been suspicious since the beginning by LE if that was the spot she was killed or left.

 

[ThinkHard]

I wasn't asking people to tell me that, that's why there wasn't a question mark on the end....Because it isn't a question for anyone. Especially not anyone not LE because I doubt anyone on here would be able to tell us exact times and times of everything she did all day. I have been reading about this case since it happened and am well aware of the window of time I'm talking about the various times she spent doing this or that which we don't know of. When I say timeline I meant of her whole day. Because of everyone saying she was at the store. As in we most likely won't know until LE says but I wish we knew so we could possibly eliminate options abd ideas. If let's say for example someone could say she was at home after the store before her jog at this time until this time then we might be able to safely say they didn't follow her from the store.

This has been reported to an extend, we know she went to the store around. On to get a drink and she left for her run from her moms house around 1:15.

Since I'm guessing she didn't walk to the store to get a drink to take a walk later, we can safely assume she drove there. We haven't heard she went anywhere else.

So she drives to the store and buys a drink around noon. Drives back to her moms...and perhaps changes for her run and heads out...

The store would be a 15 minute trip tops, door to door.

So there is a window she would have been back at her moms of about 30-60 minutes btw the store errand and her walk/run.

 

[ThinkHard]

Thanks kindly. I have an odd mind, my friends tell me. I'm just hoping to offer a different perspective. I realize I need to refine the tones of my writing as it sounds harsh and sharp, even to me, when I read it back, but it's not how I mean it. I'm just here to toss out ideas that I had not seen completely hashed out in the first 4.8 threads. Conversation had slowed considerably and seems to have picked up greatly, so I'm happy with that! To anyone who has felt bulldozed by me, I never mean to make anyone feel that way and am sorry! I think the sparring of ideas in general though, can be a good thing. I have certainly had to think of things differently since joining the conversation.

Maybe it's me, but I do feel like there is progress being made here. The More each scenario is discussed the more we are able to distinguish plausible theories from those that are really unlikely.

With all of the info discussed to date, and incorporating what LE has been saying,

It does seem to be someone local, and to me it does seem like someone who had physically seen VANESSA at some point prior to the incident. My feeling is that same day, triggering the events that followed.

I think there certainly could be value to her old running data, even though almost a year old. Here's why:
1-People are generally resistant to change and creatures of habit. Most people who establish a habit around the way they exercise hold on to it.
2-Princeton is a small town that really hasn't changed much in 100 years. I've worked there for 10 years on and off and it's always the same thing there. I see some of the same people, the atmosphere is the same. If this guy was a local, very likely he was there back then too. And if we think he saw her running previously, it would seem that he could have seen her in summer 2015.

I am very interested in any information regarding the happenings in Princeton during the first week of September 2015, as we know Vanessa was there, and was visible to the community, running on the street on the 3,4,&6th. On those days she ran at 7:14AM on Thursday, 12:02 PM on Friday, and 10:25 AM on Sunday.

I am especially interested in police log entries about suspicious vehicles during this period. I have to dig into the logs. I see the logs posted for sept 6th. (Thanks to whoever dug that up!! Can we also get the prior week to see calls on the 3rd?)

I think a lot of the "sparring" when we hash out ideas has a lot to do with tone over the computer. I feel like if we were all in a room together we couldn't hash out and pick apart ideas and offend people a lot less while we do it