Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #5

[rebel123]

Let's analyze it coldly. We're in 2007. PDL is a cell antenna. Nearest ones are some 10Km away. Every mobile uses a single antenna, the nearest one if available.

This is the info police can have from operators. CB lived in an area covered by PDL.

German prosecutor found a number that might belong to CB. Asks for detailed log offered by Portuguese police and held by Met.

His number is there. And did a call at 7.32pm the day Maddie disappeared.

Forensic conclusions:

- Mobile highly likely to be his
- Mobile was covered by PDL antenna on May 3, 2007 at 7.32pm, time a call started (unless nearer antenna unavailable).

You can do this with well upwards of 1,000 people at least, of which I'd guess some 5-10% had a call up to 3 hours before disappearance.

There's a lot of guess work in
your analysis. Law Enforcement wouldn't be pursuing this line of enquiry unless they had much more 'substance' then your analysis suggests.

 

[Dlk79]

Not Germany I think.
The items mentioned something like 'elsewhere in Portugal' so not from Germany. Also Northern Portugal has been mentioned (can't find anymore) and DS seems to be living in the North.

Not sure about this north Portugal thing. Can't find any MSM source actually stating the call was made there, it just says not in Luz area. If that information had been made public by the investigators, I would have expected it to have appeared on all of the MSM sites. Has someone just made the assumption based on finding this DS is from North Portugal?

 

[MENDEL]

There's a lot of guess work in
your analysis. Law Enforcement wouldn't be pursuing this line of enquiry unless they had much more 'substance' then your analysis suggests.

I have already checked the process in mccannpjfiles.co.uk and can tell you that. Sometimes they had a "wrong" or impossible antenna, and they discussed details to justify it (like jumping to an antenna 26Km away in 2min.).

 

[MENDEL]

There's a lot of guess work in
your analysis. Law Enforcement wouldn't be pursuing this line of enquiry unless they had much more 'substance' then your analysis suggests.

If you can read Portuguese:

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/oa/OA_TEL/OA_13_TEL_Page_011.jpg

[EDIT]: Translation

Russell O’Brien in Aljezur?

 

[rebel123]

I have already checked the process in mccannpjfiles.co.uk and can tell you that. Sometimes they had a "wrong" or impossible antenna, and they discussed details to justify it (like jumping to an antenna 26Km away in 2min.).

Does that website have cell data that the UK authorities have in their possession?

 

[MENDEL]

Does that website have cell data that the UK authorities have in their possession?

I have searched thoroughly and couldn't find them. There are a few missing pages. Also, they might have been requested informally and so aren't part of formal process. In that case they would proceed formally if something interesting would be found IMHO.

 

[Anxala]

This is interesting:
They are trying to establish 100% that CB had the phone the night Maddie was abducted.

Police hope one phone call will help solve Madeleine McCann mystery

I wonder what the likelihood of that happening is though? For the sake of argument, let's say it was an entirely innocent call unrelated to anything 'dubious' in which case yes, the 2nd party to the phone call come could forward and confirm it was CB s/he spoke to. But if it related to criminal activity or planned criminal activity, then why would that person come forward? What would be their motivation to put themselves and their own 'dubious' activities right in the line of fire? Because there's no way in the world that they too wouldn't become a serious person of interest for the German investigators.

 

[Toothcomb]

If they have his phone in question then they may have been able to access ping history. Possible that he had several phones, and they are trying to find out from the ex associates what numbers and phones he had etc... in order to look into his movements.

 

[Kiranerys]

Let's analyze it coldly. We're in 2007. PDL is a cell antenna. Nearest ones are some 10Km away. Every mobile uses a single antenna, the nearest one if available.

This is the info police can have from operators. CB lived in an area covered by PDL.

German prosecutor found a number that might belong to CB. Asks for detailed log offered by Portuguese police and held by Met.

His number is there. And did a call at 7.32pm the day Maddie disappeared.

Forensic conclusions:

- Mobile highly likely to be his
- Mobile was covered by PDL antenna on May 3, 2007 at 7.32pm, time a call started (unless nearer antenna unavailable).

You can do this with well upwards of 1,000 people at least, of which I'd guess some 5-10% had a call up to 3 hours before disappearance.

It is his number,I believe the German prosecutor said in one of his statements that it is still CB's number (will look for link but take this as MOO until I find it)

 

[MENDEL]

If they have his phone in question then they may have been able to access ping history. Possible that he had several phones, and they are trying to find out from the ex associates what numbers and phones he had etc... in order to look into his movements.

I'm not sure they can access ping history from 2007 if they didin't ask for it in time.

 

[rebel123]

I have searched thoroughly and couldn't find them. There are a few missing pages. Also, they might have been requested informally and so aren't part of formal process. In that case they would proceed formally if something interesting would be found IMHO.

From the BBC 2013

Phone records may aid Madeleine case

 

[MENDEL]

It is his number,I believe the German prosecutor said in one of his statements that it is still CB's number (will look for li k but take this as MOO until I find it)

Maybe having a number today doesn't mean you had it 2007. I don't know why info from old employee was so important.

 

[MENDEL]

If they have his phone in question then they may have been able to access ping history. Possible that he had several phones, and they are trying to find out from the ex associates what numbers and phones he had etc... in order to look into his movements.

Mr Gamble said the EU data retention directive, which compels telephone companies to retain call and internet records for a period of time, was at an "immature stage" in 2007.

But he said it appeared the data "wasn't properly or appropriately interrogated," at the time.

IN:

Phone records may aid Madeleine case

 

[Kiranerys]

I think it may be the evidence that the LE has been talking about in the last week. The public won't be privy to it.

Exactly,and anything the public is privy to,CB will also be privy to,we all seem to forget that even though they keep telling us they dont want him to know what they have until they can hit him with it!.
He must be stewing nicely in solitary wondering what it is he did wrong,how he slipped up and which bit of evidence they have that will convict him. X

 

[rebel123]

I wonder what the likelihood of that happening is though? For the sake of argument, let's say it was an entirely innocent call unrelated to anything 'dubious' in which case yes, the 2nd party to the phone call come could forward and confirm it was CB s/he spoke to. But if it related to criminal activity or planned criminal activity, then why would that person come forward? What would be their motivation to put themselves and their own 'dubious' activities right in the line of fire? Because there's no way in the world that they too wouldn't become a serious person of interest for the German investigators.

Old loyalties etc. But also if someone knows whose number it was at the time, then the authorities can track them down.

 

[Kiranerys]

Maybe having a number today doesn't mean you had it 2007. I don't know why info from old employee was so important.

How likely would it be that CB has a number presently that someone else had in pdl in 2007 where CB also happened to be?, besides which I am sure that they have checked the records to see how long he has held that number (mine has been the same for years), they may even have it on record from his previous arrests etc.

 

[Toothcomb]

Cellular Analysis has developed new methodologies over last few years and I think it can provide historical information, but they may not yet be able to use it as evidence in criminal proceedings.

 

[MENDEL]

How likely would it be that CB has a number presently that someone else had in pdl in 2007 where CB also happened to be?, besides which I am sure that they have checked the records to see how long he has held that number (mine has been the same for years), they may even have it on record from his previous arrests etc.

That's why I asked about that old employee....

 

[rebel123]

Not CB's number, but the other number. No doubt other numbers were called with that number, probably a step to far to think LE could get hold of that phone data.

 

[MENDEL]

Not CB's number, but the other number. No doubt other numbers were called with that number, probably a step to far to think LE could get hold of that phone data.

They can ask operator for a possible registration (not compulsory) or for SIM charging made through a bank account (quite common, but not compulsory). Problem here is 13 years. Maybe operators and banks don't have that info any longer...