I'm not aware assumption of death was made in 2007. What known evidence was there back then to lead to that conclusion?
I would be surprised if the professionals involved didn't think it however in what appeared to be an absence of any concrete evidence of that British LE at least seemed to still treating it as a missing persons enquiry.
After 13 yrs German LE are suddenly treating it as a murder investigation. A conclusion they reached in the last couple of years. They claim to have some kind of evidence that she is dead. They are also clear that this is not forensic evidence nor do they have a body, any part of a body or any knowledge of it's whereabouts.
If there is no forensic evidence I would assume no clothing or any trace of her DNA. I would assume evidence would mean they've gone beyond just witnesses.
It is just my opinion that it is possible that is something found when investigating him and filmed evidence is all I could think of. Especially given that they found the rape of the 72 year old had been filmed. It would fit his MO. But do you have other suggestions on what could have that have precipitated this very sudden, very public change?
I find the thoughts that the McCanns are not being supported by family liaison officers appalling. We don't know what they've been told
RBBM
LE possibly have had some information given to them by some other criminal who either heard the details directly from CB, or from one of CB's associates. For whatever reason, police find the story credible. We know he gave details to someone at the bar on the 10th anniversary. That person went promptly to LE. So we know they have whatever that person told LE.
I think from there, LE set about trying to corroborate the story. They probably looked for evidence first that CB was in Portugal at the time when MM vanished. Once they confirmed this, they looked for other evidence that he was in the area of the abduction when she vanished (they found the phone records showing the 30 min call with someone).
They have the vehicles that he used at the time. I'm thinking they put those out in the media hoping someone perhaps from the resort at the time could place either vehicle at the resort around the time of the abduction. If they had that, their case would be stronger.
They've said they have no forensic info. I've taken this to mean literally no forensic material - so no blood, hair, skin... no video, no photographs (yet).
I think what they have it a witness who came forward to say CB confessed, and things that seem to corroborate the information. They don't have enough to charge the guy yet. If they did, you'd be hearing about charges, not a plea for people with info to come forward. I think the bar friend said someone else was assisting or involved or had information, and police are looking now for that person.
That is the only thing I can suggest. I firmly believe if they had photographic or video evidence that CB was with MM at all, they'd be all over that like white on rice. You'd think they'd release snips of the video or stills from the scene with MM and CB removed (photoshopped) out. People could then come forward with information about the locations. I think they may have done this when they put out the photos of the inside of his residences.... photos and videos are easy to alter. We
may well have already seen where MM was taken and we just don't know it yet.