I've been reading along on websleuths since Chelsea first disappeared because I wanted to follow the case and the news often didn't provide much coverage of the ongoing investigation.
I grew up in Monroe County, but attended a different school than Chelsea and am 10+ years older than her. Certain parts of Chelsea's story hit home with me both because of the location and the circumstances.
Just figured I'd add a few thoughts:
1. Since 500-800 people were estimated to have attended the Halloween party, the size is the only thing that stands out as unusual. (This is likely due to the fact that the bands invited thousands of Facebook fans and more showed up than they were prepared for.)
But the concept of large outdoor parties is not uncommon in our region. So much of the land is agricultural, which means there are lots of houses with significant sized property or attached farmland and multiple outbuildings. It would not be unusual to attend a barbecue, bonfire, graduation party, birthday party, or other event at an outdoor location where there would be 50-100 people being served alcohol. About once or twice a year, I see flyers or people promoting "concerts" on Facebook that are hosted out in the country in nearby counties as well.
I say this to point out that Chelsea and other people who live in the area, then, probably wouldn't have viewed the prospect of this outdoor concert as especially threatening or unsafe. It might've seemed more routine to them, as "large" outdoor parties (with say 100 or more people) happen every year and more time than not, it's just a bunch of locals (many of whom went to school together) hanging out.
2. These communities have a small town feel. While nearby Monroe has a population of 23,000 and Flat Rock has about 10,000, I want to emphasize how Chelsea's stomping grounds were MUCH smaller.
Carleton, which is the city where she went to school, has a population of 2,345.
Maybee, where Chelsea lived, has a population of only 562.
There are only 833 students at Airport High School.
(These are stats from the 2010 Census.)
As a result, many of us who grew up in this area feel kind of like everybody-"knows"-everybody. Either you or your siblings went to school with them, they played on a rival sports team at a nearby school, you worked with them at your summer job, they're your cousin or your cousin's friend, they go to your church, you took swim lessons together or went to camp as kids, and so on. Everyone is one person removed from everyone else.
Because of this, the setting is probably a little more complex than just "Chelsea got separated from her friends." I think when people imagine Chelsea separated from them, some either picture her as worried and alone OR they think of her as choosing to hang out with a new group of "enticing strangers" all night. But my guess, given the context, would be that while Chelsea was separated from the friend she came with who had her phone and other clothes, she still spent most of the evening around people who she felt she "knew" or considered "friends." She probably moved between a few groups throughout the night, talking to old high school classmates, then shifting to small talk with people who had worked with her, then chatting with a friend of one of her siblings, and so on.
Even though we're appalled, given the outcome, that she didn't stick with her "ride friends" or have her phone, I think it's possible she was only drinking lightly and behaving responsibly. She was likely hanging out mostly with people she knew and felt relatively unconcerned most of the night about having concrete plans for a ride because she knew many people who could give her one if it came down to it. I was VERY responsible, but I was never concerned at the few area parties I attended because I would've felt safe taking rides from dozens of people I had grown up with via school.
Given all of this and the knowledge of the train track area and abandoned building near the trailer park, I think the person/persons responsible for her disappearance probably fall into the "Chesea-knew-them-but-didn't-know-them-really-well" category and I also believe they either currently live in the area or grew up there. I will share my list of related questions in a future post so this one doesn't get too impossibly long.
