Absolutely, and I would hope no one here is actually more interested in being right than interest in people being found.
But my question comes from a logical direction. I know that many will take objection to what you have said and see it as arrogance or pride or whatever. But I think we have to acknowledge that there are people with gifts in this area, and I don't think that you should feel uncomfortable taking pride in your abilities. I know that might piss some people off, but that's called jealousy last time I checked.
I make a habit of listening to what people say and evaluating the logic of it all, that's why I asked you those questions. I'm not afraid to learn about something I am missing. I gave 3 theories that I think I have seen so far, but I was open to hearing if there was a reason why 1 or the other would be more logical in your experienced opinion. As I said, some people just get gut feelings or see something really simple that others miss, but is a huge factor.
In light of that, I am just asking which of these is what you believe or possibly another? :
1. The car came downstream 8 miles from a location to the west near where 9&435 intersect
2. The car came off the boatramp and went a few hundred feet downstream to the location it was found
3. The car went over the ridge to the east of the dog park and moved minimally or not at all and was in that location since that day
Those are the 3 that I think have been mentioned and each can suggest different probability of causation.
For example with 1, I would think that this is almost 99% an accident if that was the case. Why? she was likely moving at a high speed and was maybe tired or road conditions and visibility were the issue. It also makes sense that she might remove the gps to speed.
with #2 - it could still be an accident, but also possibly foul play. Why? because it just seems less likely that someone drives head on into water. Not that it couldn't happen, and I do think it's plausible even in that case it's just simply an accident.
with #3 - Is the one to me that would seem to also be a 99% chance that it's an accident. Makes complete sense she could swerve and go off the cliff or even lose consciousness/fall asleep.
So, I was just trying to determine from your logic what makes the most sense to you. Your comment seemed to suggest that either 1 or 2 would be what you were saying, but you weren't explicit.
I hope you don't think this is one-upmanship, as I'm just simply trying to discuss the logic of the conclusion you have drawn. You might even say it doesn't matter, but in some cases, it does. So it's worthwhile to explore them and question our own beliefs at times. -- if so, you might not have been wrong about the papini case or wright case as you suggested.
I do hope that we can all just take our minds off the whole being right thing and just evaluate things logically. It's not at all uncommon for people to believe 7 different ways on any given topic. So my questions are more about understanding everyones logic, not competition. I definitely say when I disagree, but I fully understand I am often wrong, even when the probability is high and I am in agreement with many. 1% probability exists because it's possible.