Found Deceased NC - Hania Noelia Aguilar, 13, abducted, Lumberton, 5 Nov 2018 #2

[SharonNeedles]

For what it’s worth, I think it may be a stretch to think that Person of Interest is the assailant.

The dogs had no scent to follow from the abandoned SUV, so I’m thinking most likely he had an accomplice there to switch vehicles - or maybe had a vehicle he left there?

The spot where he abandoned the SUV doesn’t seem random at all to me. I can’t see somebody picking a plot like that right next to other properties that look like there might be people around to witness. He knew of that spot, and I think he probably had been there previously when there was a mobile home there. He’s familiar with that spot and comfortable with it.

He came out of the woods with the bandana covering his face and made off with the girl and the SUV quickly. Not a lot of time to put a plan together, I think he already had a plan.

And with that, it doesn’t fit that he started out walking so far west of the mobile home park - then ended up on the east side lurking in the trees.

I think it’s quite likely the POI walking is a potential witness, not the suspect we’re looking for.

 

[andalso]

I didn't look at hours of operation, I was more interested if there were cameras. If he was doing laundry, I think he'd be doing it at one of the laundromats closer to Lambeth or wherever he originally came from. I think there were a couple over in that area.

You're very lucky your clothes were still there, lol! MOO

I feel it is not uncommon for laundromats to have cameras both inside and out. Of course, I don't know for sure if these 2 do or not.

Not sure why I am stuck on the laundromat thing, I guess I just feel it could be a place that perp and Hania and her family could have crossed paths. I have also considered a washing machine repair man, due to the proximity of walker to both laundromats.

All just an angle to consider.

 

[Inthedetails]

Per google, Laundry Express on Elizabethtown opens at 7am. Unsure what time the other laundromat by Lambeth opens.

Thanks for checking. He clearly isn't walking around with a bag of laundry to put in the washers at 7am, so I'm crossing that off the list. Dang - I wanted to have a eureka moment.

Putting the thinking cap back on....

jmo

 

[margarita25]

“Especially Hania’s mother. I know she isn’t sleeping, eating, thinking the worst. I am begging someone, from one mother’s desperate heart to another mother’s broken heart, to please call the tip line,” she said.”

Woman with missing daughter of her own pleads for help in Hania Aguilar case :: WRAL.com

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“The FBI has released surveillance footage of a person they would like to speak to connection with missing North Carolina 13-year-old Hania Noelia Aguilar.”

“So far, there is no indication Hania was targeted, according to police.“

$20,000 reward in search for missing North Carolina 13-year-old Hania Noelia Aguilar

——

Reward for kidnapped Hania Noelia Aguilar rises to $20,000 as FBI releases new photos

“De La Rocha said that the public was “critical” in the recovery of the SUV and that the FBI needed the public’s help to identify the man. The man was not considered a suspect or person of interest, but rather he was a person authorities “want to speak with” who may help narrow down the timeline of the kidnapping.

——

FBI WANTED:
HANIA NOELIA AGUILAR — FBI

 

[margarita25]

If we were to take 50 or even 100 non family Abductions/Amber Alerts of a child/teen who is still missing/found deceased, how many would actually involve the MO of the perp taking the car onsite? This is a unique factor that we can work with, moo.

Who carjacks for the first time? I guess there’s always got to be a first time for everything. Do you guys think this is the first time he has carjacked? I doubt it, moo. I also tend to think that if I asked a cop what the first thing they think of when someone says “carjacking and bandana” and the first thing imo they’re going to likely say is “possible gang ties”.

If he is an opportunistic predator and this is a spontaneous crime, then this would have to be something maybe already inherent in his psyche to even think of this within such a short period of time, kwim ? Again, that window of opportunity.

IMO it sounds like LE believes someone near the mobile park/Quincey Dr knows something and/or the perp. It also sounds like they don’t believe they have spoken to everyone who lives in the park or in the area where the SUV was found.

IMO the message they are sending is, “you can run but you can’t hide, we are in your neighborhood.” Anyone else getting the same vibe?

I wonder how close this guy will turn out to be. Could be really close.

How many apartment complexes are within a 2 mile radius I wonder?

 

[margarita25]

http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Lumberton-North-Carolina.html
-note the whole thing lights up red!

(ETA: I did a comparison to Denver. It’s all yellow...that to me says a loooot. Wow....Detroit is light red, also less than Lumberton. Los Angeles and NYC are yellow.)

—-

https://spotcrime.com/nc/lumberton

 

[zecats]

If we were to take 50 or even 100 Abductions/Amber Alerts of a child/teen by a male who is still missing/found deceased, how many would actually involve the MO of the perp taking the car onsite? This is a unique factor that we can work with, moo.

Who carjacks for the first time? I guess there’s always got to be a first time for everything. Do you guys think this is the first time he has carjacked? I doubt it, moo.

If he is an opportunistic predator and this is a spontaneous crime, then this would have to be something maybe already inherent in his psyche to even think of this within such a short period of time, kwim ? Again, that window of opportunity.



I wonder how close this guy will turn out to be. Could be really close.

How many apartment complexes are within a 2 mile radius I wonder?

—-

Here is a list of public housing in the area. I also saw several apartment complexes neat Lambeth. fwiw

Property List – Housing Authority of the City of Lumberton

Note: On the Housing Authority Website there is a ban list with names, dates and reasons for the ban, including domestic violence, drugs, robbery.

ETA I'm not in anyway stating that any public housing resident is automatically responsible for this crime.

 

[kkdj]

For what it’s worth, I think it may be a stretch to think that Person of Interest is the assailant.

The dogs had no scent to follow from the abandoned SUV, so I’m thinking most likely he had an accomplice there to switch vehicles - or maybe had a vehicle he left there?

The spot where he abandoned the SUV doesn’t seem random at all to me. I can’t see somebody picking a plot like that right next to other properties that look like there might be people around to witness. He knew of that spot, and I think he probably had been there previously when there was a mobile home there. He’s familiar with that spot and comfortable with it.

He came out of the woods with the bandana covering his face and made off with the girl and the SUV quickly. Not a lot of time to put a plan together, I think he already had a plan.

And with that, it doesn’t fit that he started out walking so far west of the mobile home park - then ended up on the east side lurking in the trees.

I think it’s quite likely the POI walking is a potential witness, not the suspect we’re looking for.

BBM
I'm starting to think this too.
Apparently this is a crime ridden area and residents aren't likely to trust LE. The person walking may have committed other crimes, possibly has a warrant, affiliates with criminals, etc. but he isn't going to come forward. I think that's pretty clear at this point.
The time Hania and her family left for school was routine. It would make sense someone that knew this watched and waited for the right time and it finally happened. I'll bet the person who took her lives nearby. jmo.

 

[Stunned]

Do we have threads for the 3 murdered women unsolveds in N.C.? Tia
(Three iirc? I posted way upstream, noting in case I forget or get sidetracked, tia).

Lol! I have been reading your posts and wondered why you always ended with tia! That is Aunt is Spanish! It just now dawned on me what you were saying. Forehead slap!

 

[zencompass]

http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Lumberton-North-Carolina.html
-note the whole thing lights up red!

(ETA: I did a comparison to Denver. It’s all yellow...that to me says a loooot. Wow....Detroit is light red, also less than Lumberton. Los Angeles and NYC are yellow.)

—-

https://spotcrime.com/nc/lumberton

Thank you, Margarita25, for this information.

This is deeply, deeply saddening.

There are children, seniors and persons with disabilities living there, as there are anywhere.

This area critically needs more funding to work out a plan to make this a safer, healthier place to live. Not just the law enforcement but the schools, housing, recreation centers, etc.

I have no answers for how any of that will come about.

As there seems to be a great deal of poverty there, then the majority of the citizens will not be able to afford to move.

So they are living in fear and a crime-ridden area.

This is so tragic and heartbreaking.

My heart goes out to everyone living there who are trying to keep their children and themselves safe and are kind and honest individuals.

I know I am not alone thinking and feeling this. It really hurts my heart.

 

[margarita25]

Ok so maybe the carjacking and bandana doesn’t necessarily mean he has past or present gang ties. Maybe criminals carjack sometimes and have zero gang ties?

Upstream I posted some studies on carjacking, and an older article had said it was still a relatively understudied crime. I don’t think I posted that because I was looking to see what research has been since that.

I’m going to do an experiment here.

I’m going to randomly google the last 10 carjacking arrests in Denver here and see how many of them actually ended up having gang ties.

I will let you know the results of my study in a concise statement so not as to get too much off topic.

It may very well turn out that car jacking commonly occurs with out a past or present ties to a gang.

I’m interested to see how this will turn out. We will see. I am always ready to get schooled. For me, the learning process is always valuable.

ETA:

Unfortunately many articles aren’t giving out a lot of suspect information...

—-
Here’s an alternate approach.

Looking up carjacking and gangs link and A LOT is coming up. A LOT. Pages.

“Frosh said the teens made up a violent, organized carjacking ring and said they were a gang that terrorized communities across Baltimore City and county for four months last year.

"We see these small groups establish these patterns and, unfortunately, these patterns of carjackings wreak havoc across Baltimore City," said Baltimore interim police commissioner Gary Tuggle.“

4 teens arrested in connection with 26 Baltimore City, county carjackings, officials say
—-

Ventura man convicted of gang-related carjacking

I’m not going to post more carjacking case links as this so as to not get off topic, but my point is that the crime of carjacking in itself is very often linked to gangs, imo. Not sure what the stats on this are.

What would the FBI or other/LE say about the profile of a carjacker? Still looking.

—-

Another question, IF LE suspects he miiight or cooould have past or present gang ties, would they even release this? That might make people even moooore afraid to come forward.

—

ETA: I’ve just sent a text to a dear friend who is a very very high ranking retired member of LE to ask what his opinion is on how high the chances are that a person who commits a carjacking with a bandana over his face has past or present ties to a gang in his opinion. Waiting on answer, will Iikely have a response early in the morning as he goes to bed early.

Everything is Jmo and speculative brainstorming.

 

[cujenn81]

I was watching the video of the sister She says “The men came in” and “they took her away” . I know she’s only 8 however she used plural twice as In more than one man. I just find it strange that’s all.

The fact that she said “the men came in and they took her away” has been bothering me from day one, too.

 

[crhedBngr]

Lol! I have been reading your posts and wondered why you always ended with tia! That is Aunt is Spanish! It just now dawned on me what you were saying. Forehead slap!

RBBM

Off topic, but very cool - thanks for sharing this!!

Now, where is Hania? Can't wait until the Quantico results get back--hopefully, LE can release some information to the public.

 

[Blueberry2720]

Lol! I have been reading your posts and wondered why you always ended with tia! That is Aunt is Spanish! It just now dawned on me what you were saying. Forehead slap!

TIA or tia on forums such as this usually means "thanks in advance"

 

[cujenn81]

http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Lumberton-North-Carolina.html
-note the whole thing lights up red!

(ETA: I did a comparison to Denver. It’s all yellow...that to me says a loooot. Wow....Detroit is light red, also less than Lumberton. Los Angeles and NYC are yellow.)

—-

https://spotcrime.com/nc/lumberton

I can tell you first hand that the crime rate in Robeson County is off the charts. I live about an hour away and I get news notifications on nearly a daily basis saying that a dead body has been found or that police are looking for a new murder suspect. It’s terrifying, to be quite honest.

(...the ratio of unsolved crimes to arrests made is even more terrifying than the crime rate itself.)

 

[margarita25]

I can tell you first hand that the crime rate in Robeson County is off the charts. I live about an hour away and I get news notifications on nearly a daily basis saying that a dead body has been found or that police are looking for a new murder suspect. It’s terrifying, to be quite honest.

(...the ratio of unsolved crimes to arrests made is even more terrifying than the crime rate itself.)

I can’t say I’ve ever seen such a crime map as this in any case I’ve studied.

 

[MimosaMornings]

I used to travel thru Lumberton and Fayetteville frequently- was told to always stay at hotels with interior corridors if traveling alone. I stayed once where the doors opened directly to the outside and I was on the ground level. The clerk told me to push something (like a table or dresser) in front of the door. I did not get much sleep.

 

[Stunned]

TIA or tia on forums such as this usually means "thanks in advance"

Yeah, I figured that out...

 

[MimosaMornings]

It's been 25 years since Michael Jordan's father was killed in Robeson County

 

[charminglane]

Yeah, I figured that out...

I prefer the Auntie reference.