Found Deceased NC - Hania Noelia Aguilar, 13, abducted, Lumberton, 5 Nov 2018 #2

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MsBetsy said:
I was trying to get caught up with this thread last night and then I fell asleep. I wanted to ask if the time was known of the guy walking on the tape and also how far are the two trailers from each other? Sorry if this has been covered.
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I don't recall if the time stamp is on the video of the pedestrian, but LE has said he was walking in the time frame before the abduction. We can tell by the light of the day that his walk matches the time before the abduction - the day is just starting to get light.

To me, that tells me he likely was walking at some point even before dawn, while it was still dark. Why??? Where was he coming from, where was he going at that time of day, and why was he walking that route? The most obvious reason a young adult would be walking at that time of day would be to walk to school - but his route seems very long for that. The other reason would be to walk to work - but committing abduction would make him miss work. (Okay, I have to laugh at myself...as if someone willing to abduct a young teen is particularly worried about his work ethic.)

IDK. Who is this pedestrian?

jmo
 
JMO
There was some past discussion that some thought he may have been looking at a cell phone and I wonder if he had known she would start the car most mornings and he may have been checking the clock on his phone to time him getting there around the precise time she would be leaving.

From watching his walk it sure seemed to me he was on a mission that morning. I think he may have known her routine from seeing her before in that same area and decided today was the day he would grab her or the car if he could. Maybe he mainly wanted the vehicle but changed his plans due to his devious nature.
 
MsFacetious said:
So sad for the kids who have to grow up there.




We have seen this in other missing children's cases that occurred close to a base. I think it's a case of all hands on deck.




I'm left handed but very ambidextrous. I switch back and forth so I don't get carpel tunnel in one hand or the other. I know I'm strange though and that is not the norm.
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I’m a lefty too and constantly switch back and forth. For me it has to do with my age and years ago most items were geared for right-handed people.
 
Inthedetails said:
I don't recall if the time stamp is on the video of the pedestrian, but LE has said he was walking in the time frame before the abduction. We can tell by the light of the day that his walk matches the time before the abduction - the day is just starting to get light.

To me, that tells me he likely was walking at some point even before dawn, while it was still dark. Why??? Where was he coming from, where was he going at that time of day, and why was he walking that route? The most obvious reason a young adult would be walking at that time of day would be to walk to school - but his route seems very long for that. The other reason would be to walk to work - but committing abduction would make him miss work. (Okay, I have to laugh at myself...as if someone willing to abduct a young teen is particularly worried about his work ethic.)

IDK. Who is this pedestrian?

jmo
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Dear Inthedetails,

As you stated, the authorities said that the time of the video of the P.O.I. was within the time frame of Hania's abduction.


November 5, 2018 Lumberton, North Carolina:

Twilight start: 6:14:49 a.m.

Sunrise: 6:41:01 a.m.

Time of 911 call: 6:58 a.m.




Sunrise and sunset times in Lumberton, NC - November 2018
 
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I’ve been thinking a lot about the article that @shinmasamura posted yesterday and it’s similar aspects to Hania’s abduction. Out of the hundreds of abductions we have seen, her case obviously has some unique factors re: MO as carjacking, etc which imo, really needs to be looked at closely, as this could be our biggest clues.

While there is nothing to indicate that Hania’s family has any ties to anything illegal gang or cartel related, this does not mean that somebody else involved in such activities isn’t the perp. And as many have mentioned, crimes can affect innocent people. Again, what do the actions of the perp tell us about him as far as how he decided to execute this kidnapping. While his intent is likely sexually related, this doesn’t mean that this perp has nothing to do with other illegal activities which imo could be gang or cartel related.

As I mentioned before, my research upon the gangs in Robeson County shows that some of them have ties to the cartels.

Here is an initial link, yes it’s old as I’m still researching, but here is one to start that demonstrates the problem in this county:

“• A pair of 2011 raids in Robeson County resulted in the seizure of 118 kilos of cocaine and more than $550,000. In the second of those busts in August, officers dug up 90 kilograms of cocaine buried under a shed on a farm.
• In September, nearly $660,000 was seized in a seedy Robeson County hotel room.“

In small-town USA, business as usual for Mexican cartels
https://www-m.cnn.com/2012/06/09/us...town-usa/index.html?r=https://www.google.com/

—-

Mexican cartels using small NC towns to traffic drugs - WWAY TV
—-

Officials: Mexican drug cartel may be involved in Mebane kidnapping; 2 charged

—

“Leon Burden, the executive director of Colors of Life, a gang prevention program, says the gang problem stretches to each corner of the county, estimating Robeson is home to more than 2,000 gang members of all allegiances.

“You’ve got Crips, you’ve got Bloods, you’ve got MS-13, you’ve got Latin Kings,” Burden said. “That’s just a few.”“

City task force targeting gangs | Robesonian

Also, if this is not a classic child abduction which it very likely is, there is possibly more of a chance that she could still be alive, moo.
 
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zencompass said:
It would have taken a minute or two or three to phone 911 . The 911 call was received at 6:58 a.m.

Such a short window of time.
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Yes. So he had to have BEEN there, waiting. I think he was in those woods, ready.

I also think it's possible this was planned in advance, but that's lower on my list than the theory of opportunity with the planning happening in minutes rather than days.

jmo
 
Hania Aguilar search: Call authorities if you've noticed friends, family behaving differently
As the search for missing Lumberton teenager Hania Aguilar enters its second week, the FBI and Lumberton police are asking people to contact them if they know anyone in the area who has suddenly changed their behavior.

“Think through the events of the past week, particularly the morning of Monday, Nov. 5, and consider whether you know anything that would help us," Lumberton Police Chief Michael McNeill said in a press conference on Monday afternoon and in a press release from the FBI. "Is there someone you know who has suddenly changed their normal behavior? Maybe they haven’t gone to work, haven’t come home, or they aren’t answering your calls or text messages."
 
PommyMommy said:
Hania Aguilar search: Call authorities if you've noticed friends, family behaving differently
As the search for missing Lumberton teenager Hania Aguilar enters its second week, the FBI and Lumberton police are asking people to contact them if they know anyone in the area who has suddenly changed their behavior.

“Think through the events of the past week, particularly the morning of Monday, Nov. 5, and consider whether you know anything that would help us," Lumberton Police Chief Michael McNeill said in a press conference on Monday afternoon and in a press release from the FBI. "Is there someone you know who has suddenly changed their normal behavior? Maybe they haven’t gone to work, haven’t come home, or they aren’t answering your calls or text messages."
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They used similar language in the Jayme Closs case. So maybe this is SOP, but I wonder if they have indications the perp may be on the run or hiding out somewhere? Do they think Hania is with him/being held by him? From the earlier use of "We're coming for you" directly to the person or persons responsible I thought it indicated a local crime where the suspect(s) most likely went back to their business after they did what they wanted and disposed of Hania. Now I'm not so sure. Is there still a chance she is alive and being held? I want to hope but it feels so bleak. :(:(:(
 
I have only read Hania's thread lately. I am trying so very hard not to lose hope but admittedly the longer Hania is missing the more sinking feeling I have inside.

Once I read all of the links that many dangerous gangs are widespread in this area the more fear I have for Hania.

I have read such unbelievable horror stories about what MS13 gangs do to their innocent young victims that it has given me occasional nightmares.

The barbaric methods they use is hard for me to understand or even begin to comprehend how any human being could be so barbaric and beyond sadistic and so cruel in 2018. Yet they are and that is what frightens me most.

And they are spreading like cockroaches now infesting so many cities everywhee.

They have to be psychopaths to be capable of committing such horrors.

They remind me somewhat of the Killer Couples on ID.

Somehow they seem to be able to see immediately the evil in others knowing they are capable of doing evil things just like them and will team up with them to do the most vicious kidnappings along with rapes and murders.

Its like they have a built in honing device in order to detect others just as evil as they are.

I guess it takes a true psychopath to recognize other psychopaths with their same evil twisted mindset.

Vicious gangs that group together to do such horrific things have to be of the same mindset as psychopaths who place no value whatsoever on human life.

Gangs are such an epidemic everywhere now that it is literally destroying even small cities or rural areas that use to be great safe areas to raise families and work.

If the gangs all across our country could be diminished our overall violent crime rate would greatly fall nationwide.

All I can do now is continue to pray every single day like I have done from day one that Hania hasn't been kidnapped by a gang member. Please God don't let that be true.

Prayers for Hania's safe return.

Jmo
 
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The fact that the perp did this in broad daylight and how brazen it was lends to the belief that he probably didn't execute the rest of the crime without leaving some forensic evidence behind, specifically in the vehicle. Perp could've stalked Hania for however long and planned every step out but given the fact that the vehicle was found not too far off a road abandoned vs. burned/chopped up/etc. also leads me to believe we aren't dealing with a criminal mastermind here. This still strikes me as a sexual perversion case where perp wanted to have or possess Hania so while he may have stalked her to learn her movements, the act itself was still impulsive.

The problem is that if any hair or fiber samples are found for them to be useful they'd have to have a POI already and get DNA from close familial sources to test and match against ones collected at the crime scene or the perp would need to be already convicted of something and thus have their DNA in a criminal database. I do believe there is evidence being processed from the vehicle but depending on the size and condition of the sample, results can take up to 14 days even when fast tracked as I assume ones in this case would be.
 
Question, how many child/teen abductions off the street can we cite where the perp was walking around on the street, used a bandana (and carjacked with own vehicle)?

Insight into the perp is clear that he is not your run of the mill child abductor imo. He has other things going on—rap sheet, street criminal. JMO.
 
Inthedetails said:
Yes. So he had to have BEEN there, waiting. I think he was in those woods, ready.

I also think it's possible this was planned in advance, but that's lower on my list than the theory of opportunity with the planning happening in minutes rather than days.

jmo
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Crime of opportunity definitely possible and would fit how quick and brazen the attack was however this still strikes me as someone who knew Hania. Perhaps she didn't know him but he knew her. Knew who she was, where she lived and at least her general movements each day. The abduction was too precise and compact to be a random abduction. For me to get there, you'd need a perp who just happened to see Hania in the few minutes that she happened to be outside starting a vehicle for school and then perp ran up on her not knowing if there were any others nearby, if anyone else was expected to be coming out, a bunch of different things. I realize perps often act so impulsively they don't think about these things but that's a really small window as she had only been outside for a few minutes. Hania would be one of the unluckiest people ever.

The simplest answer imo is that perp had at least a general working knowledge of her routine each day. When she left for school, who was likely to be inside and outside the house and who would be around. It would only take probably a few days of studying as most people have their daily routines - especially on a weekday morning as this was. The precision and speed of the attack leads me to believe this was at least somewhat thought out beforehand. I do not think we are dealing with a professional criminal mastermind here but do think perp put some thought into how to execute this crime.
 
IMO, LE is somewhat sugarcoating things at this time. They know darn well the gravity of this situation but there’s no way they are going to come out and say it even if they think she could be deceased. Jmo, moo. Yes they said “dire”, but that same old profile, well we know it’s basically the same generic ones released in Jessica R’s, Abby’s and Libby’s, Mollie’s and Jayme’s. And we all know how those have turned out.

If she’s been taken by a classic predator for SA purposes, then we know stats tell us that the victim is usually dead within a few hours. We do know, however, that there are situations and exceptions like Castro’s victims, Jaycee D, AH, Elizabeth Smart.

IF not a classic abduction, (note, there is nothing “classic” about this considering his MO is carjacking), and someone affiliated with gangs and cartels is responsible, then there are other angles to consider. These would include being kept alive under horrific circumstances and perhaps even being trafficked.

Chances are also that this is just an abduction by a street criminal, not necessarily with gang or cartel ties, either random or nonrandom.
 
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ACG2x said:
Crime of opportunity definitely possible and would fit how quick and brazen the attack was however this still strikes me as someone who knew Hania. Perhaps she didn't know him but he knew her. Knew who she was, where she lived and at least her general movements each day. The abduction was too precise and compact to be a random abduction. For me to get there, you'd need a perp who just happened to see Hania in the few minutes that she happened to be outside starting a vehicle for school and then perp ran up on her not knowing if there were any others nearby, if anyone else was expected to be coming out, a bunch of different things. I realize perps often act so impulsively they don't think about these things but that's a really small window as she had only been outside for a few minutes. Hania would be one of the unluckiest people ever.

The simplest answer imo is that perp had at least a general working knowledge of her routine each day. When she left for school, who was likely to be inside and outside the house and who would be around. It would only take probably a few days of studying as most people have their daily routines - especially on a weekday morning as this was. The precision and speed of the attack leads me to believe this was at least somewhat thought out beforehand. I do not think we are dealing with a professional criminal mastermind here but do think perp put some thought into how to execute this crime.
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What you write makes sense (even as I lean toward opportunity-crime). This is a great thread because the discussion allows for different points of view as we analyze and await more info. So glad about the willingness to work this out by talking it out - and not have bickering about what theory is "best."

Hania, where are you? We want to find you!

jmo
 
I wonder if they found additional tire tracks at the vehicle disposal location.

Before I was thinking she was close, and now I’m not as sure.

——
ETA:
We know that each perp is different in his own way, and each uses his own strategies, etc.

This case has a unique factor with the carjacking. We do not have much case comparison for reference.
 
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Some notes.
Lumberton Jr High home room/breakfast starts at 7:35 am.
Students who are driven to school are asked to arrive after 7:30 and before 7:52.
Classes start at 8:00 am.
No students allowed on school property before 7:30 am.

It takes about 15 minutes to drive from Rosewood Mobile Home Park to Lumberton Jr. High. There are a lot of students getting dropped off in the morning, so would need extra time to wait in line for drop off.

Can’t find a school bus schedule, still looking.
 
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