Interesting thought on the wash, I never even considered that (I am terrified of using bleach and ruining my clothes lol)
I don't put a ton of thought into whether or not what Brendan told Barb was true, because the statement is hearsay, and therefore much less likely to be a true description of what Brendan said. I don't think we'll ever determine what Brendan told Barb. We've seen that Brendan will say pretty much anything to get out of a situation, I don't doubt he'd just tell Barb what he thinks she wants to hear so he won't get in trouble for ruining his pants. Without the context of Barb's statements, it's impossible to evaluate how useful it is, IMO.
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Agreed. I think that is a fair explanation as well. Brendan made up a lie to appease his mother. Kids do that kind of thing.
Much the same that I agree that Kayla could have easily made up that story about what Brendan told her.
But in terms of what we can evaluate in this case, there isn't much that you couldn't create an explanation for.
I don't think of my questions as binary where I must confirm they are true or false, but rather looking at them in terms of probability and plausibility.
Spending time around Brendan and his mother and getting an idea of how often he might lie or not lie about something of this nature, then we might adjust the
probability of it being accurate.
Does it sound plausible and probable to me that a mother would question her child over bleached pants ? sure.
Do I think it'd be an odd thing for her to lie about ? sure. -- why would she say she noticed this, if she didn't ?
Do I think it's plausibe that Brendan would tell his mother the truth, if he had no reason to believe it would implicate him in something ? sure.
Do I think it's plausible that Brendan would lie because he didn't want his mother to know the truth that he might have messed up with the wash and it was easier to say he was helping someone. sure
So, theres alot of plausibility in many directions. Probability is something that we can evaluate, but definitely we an gain greater confidence in probability by understanding more about these individuals. If they are a proven liar, then probability goes out the window.
None of us can prove anything. But you, me, and everyone else, use plausibility and probability as something to base our opinions on.
There's a probability and a plausibility you are using to assess brendan's statements being coerced. If someone is told details about a crime and they are cognitively disabled, there is a higher probability that they are giving a false confession. But there is no way you can prove that any given detail that he gives is true or false. You can just point out inconsistencies, which lower your assessed probability of their truthfulness.
You cannot factually prove them correct or incorrect, but just that one or the other is false if you find a inconsistency. You can't really prove which is true/false.
What you can say to a high degree of probability is that whatever he said to police, cannot be trusted as facts.
So that is the light in which I pose these questions. Nothing I say can be proven. It's about what do I believe is most probable. That is how we all will form opinions and theories.
I currently believe it is more probable that Barb told the truth about that night than lied. Lying would have protected her child.
I currently believe that brendan helped cleaned steves garage floor because he told his mother that, and he was over at steve's that day, and he had bleach on his pants. Am I positive ? nope.
But I think it's more probable than Barb lying and Brendan lying about something that on 10/31 they had no idea was of significance in a murder case. I think that it was of so little of significance in Barb's mind that on the day she was originally questioned by police when halbach was found, she likely didn't even remember it. Maybe she did remember, but chose not to say at that point. plausible as well. but I find it more probable that Barb would never have spoke of those pants and that story if she knew it would implicate her son.