OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #12

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What if Kyron didn't go missing at 9am?

What if it was noon... 1... ? We have no idea what time he was marked absent {}
We have a statement that got released before they clamped down, at 8:45 with SM dropping him off. Nothing has really been confirmed since then; you can't put full faith in what the media prints because they're wrong on details about 50% of the time (I made up that statistic btw).

And I'm not sure what difference it would make. I just notice how we collectively start to agree that things 'are' a certain way, when they might not be.
 
No matter what scenario it was, it is an isolated incident. It is quite unlikely that the school will not be on high alert for all students whereabouts now, also not likely an abductor is going to return to that school or any other near by for another child. That alone makes it isolated, as in don't worry about anything else happening around there.

jmo
 
I concur. I can imagine an RSO plopping a cap on him and just walking him outside to show him his frogs in the car and no one noticing at all.

Doesn't even have to be an RSO. They have to register only after they're finally caught and found guilty.
 
I'm half wondering if they're looking more for evidence - something dropped or thrown away - from the perp to give them a clue who it might be, as much as they are looking for Kyron if he did just wander away.

It would fit a kidnapping theory based on retribution toward the LE dad, and their seeming belief that Kyron is alive. The 24/7 LE presence (ransom call). The more-than-usual support of the family. The lack of intense concern that his time is running out if he's off in the woods after wandering away.

Perhaps it is a kidnapping scenario, and there are no pleas for his return, because they are being regularly contacted by the kidnapper.

It would account for LE seeming to cut off the reward fund.

I'm in the process of trying to think this through. I should have waited to think it through more. :)

Hey BeanE & Everyone Else ~

I've been lurking & following this case (or should I say trying to keep up) & have been baffled right along with the rest of ya'll. I haven't followed a slew of cases, but I've followed enough to be confused by this one.

BeanE - I think your theory of a kidnapping/ransom scenario is definitely plausible! Like you, I've been thinking it through for many days now, and trying to talk myself out of it & waiting for more info from LE to point me in another direction. But with each subsequesnt PC, I lean a little more in the direction of a possible kidnapping/ransom.

I've been feeling like a ping pong ball bouncing back & forth between the idea that little Kyron may have for some reason wandered off campus that morning, or that he may have been abducted by someone who has made certain "demands" - not necessarily monetary demands, but some sort of "request" in exchange for little Kyron's release.

This is my opinion only - based on what we have all read & heard in the media from LE, which is extremely little, compared with other missing children cases.

The only thing that stops me from completely jumping off the fence is the fact that the ground search has expanded in the past couple of days. It leads me to suspect, as have others, that LE may have no evidence to support any particular theory in one direction or another.

UNLESS - a possible ransom "request" has already been fulfilled, and the possible "kidnapper" has given LE vague clues as to Kyron's whereabouts, and LE is scrambling to find him.

One of the things that stops me from completely believing that Kyron wandered off school property & into the woods is due to what I've seen in pics & read from locals who have posted here about the density of the woods - overgrown with Himalayan blackberries, stinging nettles, etc. - not to mention the difficulty the trained SAR workers are having traversing that terrain with all the ravines & steep slopes. It's hard to imagine a little boy wending his way very far through that kind of landscape. It's not as if there are manicured & groomed trails that he would have followed.

I live in the PNW (not Oregon) and, as an experienced adult hiker who has been in areas similar to what has been described in the Skyline area, I would be hard-pressed to cover much ground in those conditions. I truly can't envision a child bush-whacking through all that vegetation & climbing up & down those steep ravines & slopes.

If he wandered off campus, he most likely followed a road. If that's the case, there is the store up the road from his school, and I would think that someone would have seen him.

If he didn't wander off campus, IMO, he was taken by someone (or more than one person) who planned this out meticulously , and I hope & pray that he's found & returned to his family very soon - safe & sound.

LE said in a recent presser that they didn't want to release any info that might influence anyone's recollection (paraphrasing here), or compromise the integrity of the investigation. I assume they've finished interviewing everyone @ the school. I expected at this point for LE to either say they have credible leads or to say they have no credible leads. They've said neither, as far as I can decipher.

Which leads me to think they:

1. Have absolutely no clue & are back to square one

2. This is truly a "unique" situation involving kidnapping & some sort of ransom request

But, I will have to think it through a little more, and await more info.

At any rate - my thoughts and prayers are with little Kyron & his family. I hope they're all celebrating his safe return home soon!
 
What if Kyron didn't go missing at 9am?

What if it was noon... 1... ? We have no idea what time he was marked absent {}
We have a statement that got released before they clamped down, at 8:45 with SM dropping him off. Nothing has really been confirmed since then; you can't put full faith in what the media prints because they're wrong on details about 50% of the time (I made up that statistic btw).

And I'm not sure what difference it would make. I just notice how we collectively start to agree that things 'are' a certain way, when they might not be.

yes, that could make a difference. someone visiting the talent show (which was advertised on the schools website) may have grabbed him

Maybe he did go get a drink or go to the bathroom and come back and then disappeared later
 
Perhaps it is someone's delivery route.
Who would deliver things like that?Maybe someone that would deliver to the school too?I also keep thinking is it a bus route for the school and like the transit type bus route?When is the garbage picked up at the school?
 
Bouncing off the posts about the perp having to realize that they may not have had much lead time....this is great new thinking to me - thank you for bringing it up.

I would think this helps SM. After all - she would have to expect that too - probably more than anyone.
For all she would have known - the school could have rung her cell in no time wondering where Kyron was. She would have been expected to high tail it back there.

Same for another older student from the school. They would have expected that Kyron would be missed right away - and searched for. I don't think they would risk it.

I guess this does not rule out that he left on his own for whatever reason :(

So puzzling.
 
I wonder if anything was going on around there on the 3rd and the 4th any where.concerts,shows,festivals?ect...His science fair like show.Was that just on friday?was anything going on at the school on the 3rd too?I'm just thinking out loud.I'm curious why they asked for traffic video of both days.

They maybe had 2-3 days prior to the science fair to bring in their projects. Our school does that. There would have been more strangers in the school the day BEFORE also, if that were the case.
 
On days like this one at my kid's school, when the normal schedule was all mixed up, I always reviewed the rest of the days plans one last time with my kid before I left. So the script would have been something like this for me "It's time for you to go to class now to get ready for the tours. You'll have plenty of time to look at all the stuff while you walk around with your friends, so have fun. Now remember, since Sissy takes her nap in the afternoon, I will have to miss the talent show. You can just fold up your project and ride home on the bus like always. I will come in and get your project Monday morning when I bring you to school. OK? Then bye now....love you and see you later."
Anyone could be listening to that whole conversation and I would not have thought to worry about it for a second. It would give a person with bad intentions ALL the information that they needed to know.

jmoo
 
I see these scenarios as possible:

1)Kyron wandered off--since there's no reported history of him doing this and since the school is WAY out in the boonies, I'm rejecting this theory

2) He was taken willingly, someone said "hey, let's just leave school for the day" and he agreed but this would have been someone he knew and trusted

2A) IF this happened then either it was a planned abduction and while it would take guts and "luck" it is possible

2B) or an accident occurred after leaving school and rather than report accident perp hasn't acknowledged taking KH from school

3) He was taken against his will, possibly lured outside by another child or by an adult that needed "help" with something,


I was a teacher at a very small private school a few years back and security was (and probably still is) non existant. Especially on special days there are people coming and going and it can be a madhouse. I can see the possibility of a perp luring a kid to the car to "help" with something, got KH as far as the car, looked around, no one noticing, and he takes off.

I'm leaning toward the possibility that someone at that school saw something but LE isn't disclosing it. LE hasn't handled this is the "normal" manner which makes me believe they know lots they aren't telling. And considering the fact that LE has rejected offer for reward money and didn't want untrained searchers and is just now asking for videos really makes me think they have a POI but just not quite enough evidence.

MHOO
 
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=e...660607,-122.755051&spn=0.345048,0.846634&z=11

I also tried mapping the locations LE is looking for video. (Forgive my beginner attempt; we need pufnstuf, master google mapmaker!)

Anyway, in plotting these locations, it looks like a few of these roads all lead east up to State Road 30. Looks like a main interstate -- perhaps they think a perp has Kyron and is headed east?? I don't know what the elevation is but obviously there is a pass to get over to get up to SR30.

I think LE feels that Suavie Island was the destination via SR30. The only question remaining is which road was taken from the school to SR30.
 
I think by now LE has phone records for anyone who might have reason to know Kyron. Tracking cell phone pings to see if anyone traveled outside their usual environs the day he disappeared. It would explain the searches in outlying areas. LE knows, they just need to pin it down.
 
Amber Dubois was classified as a "missing/endangered" kid up until the day her remains were found. LE consistently stated they had no evidence she was kidnapped--that was the truth, they didn't.
 
this is so interesting to me. I used to have a dream, about a very different subject, but it included something coming out of a paper bag.

It turned out to symbolize... something on the inside different than the outside... or not to judge a book by its cover.

also chicken can represent gossip and chatter....

maybe you don't like the talk and accusations of Stepmom's outward expression yesterday ??

I'm open to anyone being discussed,actually.I have my thoughts about that day and the feeling all of it should have been dealt differently and things were more orderly.I'm under the opinion most parents and teachers feel school is the safezone.Parents drive around in the circle in front of schools every morning,drop kids off,and trust the kids will be supervised into the school.They feel like with all the kids and adults around,nothing could happen,because that's the way it's always been done.I just feel it was a bad person who took thier opportunity and there's no record of who was there going in and out.
 
Who would deliver things like that?Maybe someone that would deliver to the school too?I also keep thinking is it a bus route for the school and like the transit type bus route?When is the garbage picked up at the school?

UPS, Fed Ex, regular mail, janitorial supplies, food service, utility trucks, meter readers, mowing crews.......

jmo
 
Really, other than not sharing info, LE has not handled this so abnormally, if they have no real info to share. They are not saying why they are searching where they are, but by the school is an obvious place to search if they don't know what happened, and the other place is probably from a tip or a cell phone ping of someone they might be looking at. None of this points to LE having any specific scenario in mind and asking for video just adds to the mix, let's look at everything, scenario. Also we have not seen a missing child coupled with a school in recent history, so maybe this is the way they would deal with any such case involving a school.

A person would still need time enough to talk Kyron into going with him/her, as they could not risk a struggle or a screaming, shouting child in the midst of this busy school where people know one another. That pretty much rules out a stranger to me.
 
If it was a ransom scenario,would they still be doing all the searching everywhere,I mean in the woods and water?Or would they be concentrating more along the lines of people's homes?
 
When I reach a point - as in this case - where you have gotten absolutely nowhere and are basically right back at the beginning, I always think of two words:


OCCAM'S RAZOR


and that's all I got to say - the end.
 
Really, other than not sharing info, LE has not handled this so abnormally, if they have no real info to share. They are not saying why they are searching where they are, but by the school is an obvious place to search if they don't know what happened, and the other place is probably from a tip or a cell phone ping of someone they might be looking at. None of this points to LE having any specific scenario in mind and asking for video just adds to the mix, let's look at everything, scenario. Also we have not seen a missing child coupled with a school in recent history, so maybe this is the way they would deal with any such case involving a school.

A person would still need time enough to talk Kyron into going with him/her, as they could not risk a struggle or a screaming, shouting child in the midst of this busy school where people know one another. That pretty much rules out a stranger to me.

But this is what bothers me about your point. If they don't have a clue then why would they not offer the reward money. If it was my child and LE didn't have a clue I'd be insisting they offer reward money for any info.

Just MHOO
 
yes. I thought this. Step dad was involved in putting away members of a gang called "surenos"... google calls this the mexican mafia

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2066165/posts

Before pronouncing his sentence, Grensky asked Reyes-Real, the only defendant who admitted to his gang affiliation, what he got out of being a member of the Sureños.

"You don't get nothing," Reyes-Real replied.

Medford police Detective Tony Young said he hopes that message will resonate within the community and that people will understand gang violence will not be tolerated.

"I think the judge sent a message with this verdict," said Young. "Read between the lines. (Reyes-Real) lost the best years of his life over a stupid act."

Is this gang involved in human tracking?
Would they track down Kyron as a vendetta and sold him- hence the secrecy because it deals with TY's undercover work? It would explain all the tight-lipped PC's.
I really hope this is not the case.
 
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