OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #14

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I have a friend who studied criminal justice in the Pacific Northwest, and I asked her about this once. This is what she said she remembered from her classes [paraphrased by me]:

The Pacific Northwest has statistically more than its share of serial killers, etc., because of several things:

1. Highly transient population: I don't mean that "transients/hobos" are more likely to commit a crime. What I mean is that Seattle, Portland, etc., are considered very desirable places to live, with a high quality of life. So you get a lot of people moving there from other places. (There are some cities where it's rare to meet someone who was born and bred there.) When you have a place with a lot of strangers moving in and out, without life-long family ties there, it's easy for a stranger to get "lost" in the crowd and go undiscovered for a longer time. It's easier to be "anonymous." Also, the climate is relatively mild year-round, so you also get a lot more people who do fit the "hobo" definition of "transient." A homeless person can't survive a midwestern winter as easily as a winter in Seattle or Portland. I'm not saying that homeless are more likely to commit crimes, but this does mean that someone who acts oddly or suspiciously is more likely to be dismissed or overlooked on the streets of Portland than on the streets of, say, Butte, Montana.

There are also a lot of military bases in the PNW, which adds to the "strangers come and go" factor.

2. Culture: the Pacific Northwest cultivates a kind of "individualistic" air, in the same way that Austin, Texas, does. There are some places where being an odd duck is embraced as part of the ethos. This also contributes to the tendency to overlook someone who might appear "slightly off" or "suspicious."

The Pacific Northwest also has a higher concentration of "outdoorsy" people and hunters. Access to things like 4-wheel drive trucks with gun racks (outside of the larger cities, at least), or having the alibi that a ranger has found you out in the middle of nowhere with a shovel because you're "roughing it" is more likely to pass muster in the Pacific Northwest. After all, communing with the wilderness is the whole reason a lot of people move there. I'm not saying that hunters are more likely to kill; what I'm saying is that it's easy to say, "I'm camping/hunting/fishing/whatever" as a reason to go to or be in a remote area, or to have the kind of equipment that could also be used for killing and disposing of humans. People camp in the redwoods; they don't camp in a soybean field or a desert.

3. Geography: Without being too grisly, there are lots of places to hide bodies in the Pacific Northwest--you don't have to go too far to find someplace that is rugged enough to hide a body, often to be undetected for years, if not forever. (Just reading about the blackberry brambles is enough to convince me of this.) Additionally, animal activity due to wild areas close by, as well as how wet the climate is, means that evidence will decompose more quickly than someplace else. Plus, there are a lot of bodies of water nearby for evidence disposal.

4: Economy: The Pacific Northwest has a high immigrant population. This means that there's a proportionately higher level of low-paying, entry level jobs. For someone who is trying to fly under the radar and not leave a paper trail--or who has a criminal history already--these is how someone on the fringes of society supports himself. Those are the kinds of jobs that have "faceless" employees--no trail of credit history, mortgages, college transcripts, professional certification, professional standing and recognition, business ownership, etc.--they're the kinds of jobs that just want a body to fill a space behind a counter, and they could care less who you are inside. But ironically, you often have more contact with the public than you do in a more specialized, highly skilled job like "research scientist." I would imagine that's exactly that "just looking for a warm body" kind of jobs are exactly what someone hoping to remain unnoticed would want. There are exceptions, of course (John Wayne Gacy, for example). But if you're tracing a missing housewife, you're going to remember if a college professor was acting weird, or if someone in her literature discussion group was absent that day. Nobody's going to notice or remember that the frycook at the nearby McDonald's was shifty-eyed that day when she dashed in there for lunch.

Pretty much all of these factors apply to Florida, as well:

Transient population (snow birds, service-industry workers, immigrants, spring breakers, etc.). Plus, there's a lot of agriculture, so there's a lot of seasonal farm workers coming in and out. It can often feel rare to meet a native Floridian.

Culture: Florida is also "outdoorsy," and as part of the southeast, has a prevalent "gun rack" atmosphere, and therefore, easier to have a built-in alibi and/or reason to have weapons or go "camping" and disappear for a few days. Also, people are more likely to be outdoors in Florida through much of the year, as they are in the PNW, and this means more access to victims.

Geography: Florida also has tracts of wilderness (and bodies of water) handy, high animal and insect activity, and a very wet climate.

Economy: modern Florida is pretty much all service-industry jobs--it's all about the theme parks and beaches, which means lots of low-qualification/low references needed jobs; these are the only jobs you're likely to get if you're a RSO. Zoning laws in Florida also mean that there are more trailer parks, which may be attractive to registered sex offenders because they're cheap to live in, and easy to put in an unincorporated area if you're bound by a "so many feet away from a church or school" restriction. Other states have much stricter zoning laws.

All of these things relate to California, as well. Plus, California just has a huge population, comparatively--as does Florida.

*Sorry for rambling--this is something I've thought about quite a bit.


That was a very good, informative post, thanks so much
 
I apologize in advance (as I am sure this has been asked), but I have had to really pull back a bit on the ol' WS... at times, it all became a bit overwhelming for me and just needed a break.

I tried to catch up on all the threads and I'm sure this has been addressed, but I did not see it. Was the Science Fair open to the general public that day? Did people have to sign in to the front office to receive a name tag -- ANYTHING that would distinguish them as visitors (and also allowing others to see if they did NOT have a name tag/etc., that they had not gone through the appropriate measures to be allowed into the school?)? Just curious....
 
Or maybe it was just to make them feel more comfortable, more people by their side.

I think it was a visual thing. You have the police standing in front telling us that they are going to cease their search and rescue operations. So you offset that by flanking the family with LE. Otherwise it just looks like they have abandoned the family up there.
 
Yikes does this sound familiar?

The child didn't wander off by himself
Scaling back the searches
This case is not a stranger to stranger abduction
The child last seen with his step-mother.....

I am still waiting to post my theory and opinions on this one, but I have a few. :banghead:

Hi Elle,

this does sound familiar, but if you haven't read all 14 thread and pressers, UgH, you might want to. I am behind the SM in this case..... Anyway, I am thinking this truly is a kidnapping, but someone who knew the boy well enough to get him to just pop outside to a car, to maybe carry something in.. Glad to see ya here, starting to see familiar icons again..
 
IMO its things LE have said that makes people look at her in the first place. If they really think the parents/step parents are not involved they should 100% clear them and say so ...and stop acting so cryptic about everything :(
The same thing happened in the Somer Thompson case and there was no indication that LE ever considered her mom or her mom's boyfriend a serious suspect. People kept saying if LE thought she wasn't a suspect that they should clear her but nothing happened. We found out later that they did have what they thought was a serious suspect, a creepy guy who lived next door to where she was seen last, but he wasn't the guy eventually arrested and who now is awaiting trial.

I don't know if the SM is a suspect in this case but I wouldn't read too much into her not being cleared. This stuff doesn't necessarily work the way some outsider thinks it does.
 
They said the step mom? Dad? called the school when Kyron did not come home on the bus.Was his father with the step mom at the bus stop or at thier house?
 
I'm sorry - I hate to ask a question that may have been answered in one of the preceding 13 threads -- but I can't see anything.

Do we have any idea how well the school itself was searched?

Remember the Annie Le case, where the lab area was searched for days before her tiny body was found inside a wall?

Personal:
Kyron and Ethan Stacy could be twins, IMO. Since the Stacy case took place in my town, it's been a bit of a nightmare. I hope this case has a happier ending.
 
The same thing happened in the Somer Thompson case and there was no indication that LE ever considered her mom or her mom's boyfriend a serious suspect. People kept saying if LE thought she wasn't a suspect that they should clear her but nothing happened. We found out later that they did have what they thought was a serious suspect, a creepy guy who lived next door to where she was seen last, but he wasn't the guy eventually arrested and who now is awaiting trial.

I don't know if the SM is a suspect in this case but I wouldn't read too much into her not being cleared. This stuff doesn't necessarily work the way some outsider thinks it does.

Plus, not clearing/not clearing anyone gives the impression that LE has no ideas. This would give a perp a false sense of security -- and hopefully become careless and "slip up" enough to become a POI. I hope it's not the case that LE really has no ideas -- I hope they simply have a hand they haven't shown the public yet.
 
I apologize in advance (as I am sure this has been asked), but I have had to really pull back a bit on the ol' WS... at times, it all became a bit overwhelming for me and just needed a break.

I tried to catch up on all the threads and I'm sure this has been addressed, but I did not see it. Was the Science Fair open to the general public that day? Did people have to sign in to the front office to receive a name tag -- ANYTHING that would distinguish them as visitors (and also allowing others to see if they did NOT have a name tag/etc., that they had not gone through the appropriate measures to be allowed into the school?)? Just curious....

Hi Catters,

I know the fair and talent show was open to the public, but as far as I know, there was no sign in sheet. But with that said, the school and LE are being very tight lipped about a lot of details. So if there is someone here local, please jump in.
 
I'm sorry - I hate to ask a question that may have been answered in one of the preceding 13 threads -- but I can't see anything.

Do we have any idea how well the school itself was searched?

Remember the Annie Le case, where the lab area was searched for days before her tiny body was found inside a wall?

Personal:
Kyron and Ethan Stacy could be twins, IMO. Since the Stacy case took place in my town, it's been a bit of a nightmare. I hope this case has a happier ending.

Searched several times according to LE
 
I'm sorry - I hate to ask a question that may have been answered in one of the preceding 13 threads -- but I can't see anything.

Do we have any idea how well the school itself was searched?

Remember the Annie Le case, where the lab area was searched for days before her tiny body was found inside a wall?

Personal:
Kyron and Ethan Stacy could be twins, IMO. Since the Stacy case took place in my town, it's been a bit of a nightmare. I hope this case has a happier ending.

I read that the school has been searched 3 times. I do believe it is in one of the news conferences and they did use dogs, but I don't think cadaver at first if at all. I think they used scent dogs.
 
IMO its things LE have said that makes people look at her in the first place. If they really think the parents/step parents are not involved they should 100% clear them and say so ...and stop acting so cryptic about everything :(

I disagree that it's anything LE has said or not said that makes people like that. If that were so, then we wouldn't have cases where people are cleared - and even other people arrested, charged, tried, and/or convicted - and people still saying that cleared persons are guilty.

It tickles me when people try to blame LE, rather than take responsibility for, and own, their own words. ("It's LE's fault I think this way/said that!" :waitasec:)

I want LE to do whatever they have to do to best ensure Kyron's safety and speedy rescue, and to protect his investigation. I'm sure his parents want the same, no matter how much they may want to be cleared. I'd be the same way if my child went missing - my child would come first, no matter how much anyone vilified me.

:cow:
 
Ms Suzanne : They said the step mom? Dad? called the school when Kyron did not come home on the bus.Was his father with the step mom at the bus stop or at thier house?

According to the scanner thread from that day, both parents went to the school around 4:18, and were told that one of them needed to go back to the house to wait in case Kyron showed. However, dad didn't have to be home all day-Friday is a day that many leave early. Do I need to find the scanner info?
 
They said the step mom? Dad? called the school when Kyron did not come home on the bus.Was his father with the step mom at the bus stop or at thier house?

Hi Suz,

I don't know where everyone was at the time SM was at the bus stop and Kyron didn't get off of it. His Bio mom lives 275 miles away with SD and his bio Dad does work. that has not been talked about that I know of.

Thanks Krazy,

You answered my own ?
 
I apologize in advance (as I am sure this has been asked), but I have had to really pull back a bit on the ol' WS... at times, it all became a bit overwhelming for me and just needed a break.

I tried to catch up on all the threads and I'm sure this has been addressed, but I did not see it. Was the Science Fair open to the general public that day? Did people have to sign in to the front office to receive a name tag -- ANYTHING that would distinguish them as visitors (and also allowing others to see if they did NOT have a name tag/etc., that they had not gone through the appropriate measures to be allowed into the school?)? Just curious....

Quick catch up answers for you....and welcome to WS!

1. It was NOT a science fair. It was an IB Expo. It was announced on a public view sign in front of the school which included times and the day.
2. No, the sign in/check in was not used on this day or other such days at this school due to the large number of people coming in for the day
 
Searched several times according to LE

Thanks. I still wonder how closely, though. In the Le case, it took days to spot that a cabinet/bookcase had been moved.

I ask, because we had an odd case in St George, Utah this weekend: a 7-year-old boy with autism went missing about 7:30pm Saturday evenng, from his apartment in a complex.
A full-scale search, involving hundreds of volunteers, took place in the apartments and surroundings.

Sunday, about 2:30pm, the boy was found, alive.
He had entered a vacant apartment, and had been hiding there for 19 hours. He was spotted by another tenant, looking out the window.
Where had he been? Hiding in a closet most of the time.
Either searchers never entered that apartment, or they didn't look closely.
 
I apologize in advance (as I am sure this has been asked), but I have had to really pull back a bit on the ol' WS... at times, it all became a bit overwhelming for me and just needed a break.

I tried to catch up on all the threads and I'm sure this has been addressed, but I did not see it. Was the Science Fair open to the general public that day? Did people have to sign in to the front office to receive a name tag -- ANYTHING that would distinguish them as visitors (and also allowing others to see if they did NOT have a name tag/etc., that they had not gone through the appropriate measures to be allowed into the school?)? Just curious....

IIRC Visitors did not have to sign in, and even employees did not have to wear name tags. Anyone could have walked in. How they expected to distinguish a RSO unrelated to anyone in the school and not permitted on school grounds, for example, from a student's extended family member, is beyond all my comprehension.
 
Does anyone know if the media briefing today is going to be live? TIA
 
Ms Suzanne : They said the step mom? Dad? called the school when Kyron did not come home on the bus.Was his father with the step mom at the bus stop or at thier house?

According to the scanner thread from that day, both parents went to the school around 4:18, and were told that one of them needed to go back to the house to wait in case Kyron showed. However, dad didn't have to be home all day-Friday is a day that many leave early. Do I need to find the scanner info?
Thank you.Who was at the bus stop waiting for Kyron to get home?
 
IMO its things LE have said that makes people look at her in the first place. If they really think the parents/step parents are not involved they should 100% clear them and say so ...and stop acting so cryptic about everything :(

It is rare for LE to clear anyone. They keep their options open.
 
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