J. J. in Phila
Verified Insider
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2008
- Messages
- 8,468
- Reaction score
- 3,886
Voluntary includes suicide,which has gone up. When I started posting, I gave both walkaway and suicide a 33% percent chance each. The total chance that RFG's disappearance was voluntary was 66% likely.
In 2008, I gave the chance of suicide at 10%. That is a 22 point drop. The walkaway chance was 45%; that is an increase of 12 points. The overall chance that the reason for RFG's disappearance being voluntary is 55%, which is an 11 point drop. It became less likely that RFG's disappearance was do to a voluntary act on his part.
One factor is money, which was lower than should be expected base on his salary and expenses (a lot of this is on thread #14). His estate in 2011 was less than $25 K.Why would he have so little money?
There are multiple potential answers to this question:
1. He made some bad investments. That is not a reason for him to be murdered, or to walk away; he did not walk out on any debt. If true, that is not a reason for him to be murdered or to walk away. It would be a reason to commit suicide, i.e. he could have the type of retirement he wanted.
This would not be reason for RFG to be murdered or to walkaway.
2. He was doing estate planning. He put his money into financial instruments that would not go into his estate, e.g. a paid off life insurance policy. That is quite possible. We know he did do things like buy the Mini and put it in PEF's name; he also paid off part of her mortgage and did want to be put on the deed. He could have done that, because he was thinking about suicide. He could have done that because he was planning to walk away and knew that, at some point, he'd be declared dead.
That would not be a reason for murder.
3. He moved his assets off-shore to protect them during his 2001 divorce. We know that the marriage was troubled for some time. His divorce was granted about 5 weeks prior to 9-11. It is possible that he would have had a problem getting his money back into the country. That is a good reason to leave, because he can't spend the money in the US.
That would not be a reason for murder.
These possibilities all have something in common. They all point to something, but they don't point to foul play.
There is also the possibility that his finances were not related to his disappearance, e.g., he had money overseas that was untouched by him after 4/15/05. So the clue of the money either points to suicide or walkaway, or it is unrelated with his disappearance.
The same thing can be said about his demeanor before he disappeared. It either points to suicide or walkaway, or it was not related to his disappearance.
The same thing can be said about the laptop. It either points to walkaway or suicide, or it was not related to his disappearance.
How many "it was not related to his disappearance" possibilities are needed until that becomes too great to be coincidental?
All of the evidence is consistent with the theory that RFG walked away. Much of the evidence is consistent with suicide. A sizable portion of the evidence is not consistent with RFG being a crime victim.
Right now, I cannot think of one piece of evidence that exclusively points to RFG being a crime victim or one piece of evidence that points exclusively to RFG committing suicide. There is some weaker evidence that points exclusively to RFG walking away; in other words, it either points to RFG walking away or it is coincidence.
In 2008, I gave the chance of suicide at 10%. That is a 22 point drop. The walkaway chance was 45%; that is an increase of 12 points. The overall chance that the reason for RFG's disappearance being voluntary is 55%, which is an 11 point drop. It became less likely that RFG's disappearance was do to a voluntary act on his part.
One factor is money, which was lower than should be expected base on his salary and expenses (a lot of this is on thread #14). His estate in 2011 was less than $25 K.Why would he have so little money?
There are multiple potential answers to this question:
1. He made some bad investments. That is not a reason for him to be murdered, or to walk away; he did not walk out on any debt. If true, that is not a reason for him to be murdered or to walk away. It would be a reason to commit suicide, i.e. he could have the type of retirement he wanted.
This would not be reason for RFG to be murdered or to walkaway.
2. He was doing estate planning. He put his money into financial instruments that would not go into his estate, e.g. a paid off life insurance policy. That is quite possible. We know he did do things like buy the Mini and put it in PEF's name; he also paid off part of her mortgage and did want to be put on the deed. He could have done that, because he was thinking about suicide. He could have done that because he was planning to walk away and knew that, at some point, he'd be declared dead.
That would not be a reason for murder.
3. He moved his assets off-shore to protect them during his 2001 divorce. We know that the marriage was troubled for some time. His divorce was granted about 5 weeks prior to 9-11. It is possible that he would have had a problem getting his money back into the country. That is a good reason to leave, because he can't spend the money in the US.
That would not be a reason for murder.
These possibilities all have something in common. They all point to something, but they don't point to foul play.
There is also the possibility that his finances were not related to his disappearance, e.g., he had money overseas that was untouched by him after 4/15/05. So the clue of the money either points to suicide or walkaway, or it is unrelated with his disappearance.
The same thing can be said about his demeanor before he disappeared. It either points to suicide or walkaway, or it was not related to his disappearance.
The same thing can be said about the laptop. It either points to walkaway or suicide, or it was not related to his disappearance.
How many "it was not related to his disappearance" possibilities are needed until that becomes too great to be coincidental?
All of the evidence is consistent with the theory that RFG walked away. Much of the evidence is consistent with suicide. A sizable portion of the evidence is not consistent with RFG being a crime victim.
Right now, I cannot think of one piece of evidence that exclusively points to RFG being a crime victim or one piece of evidence that points exclusively to RFG committing suicide. There is some weaker evidence that points exclusively to RFG walking away; in other words, it either points to RFG walking away or it is coincidence.
But, I'm sure the Sandusky investigation was covered by posters in Ray's thread. I remember hearing Ray's name during that & the questions surrounding him deciding not to press charges. 
