PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #15

[J. J. in Phila]

My thoughts keep going back to Ray's demeanor in the days and hours prior to his going missing. Distracted pretty much sums it up. Visibly "off his game" to a degree. What rises to that level for a person in his profession? Reviewing the computer and hard drive over and over, the fact that he did google how to fry and hard drive and purchased special software to delete data give legs to the report of him "fiddling" with the PC while sitting on the bench. Again, what rises to that level? Are they related? I can't think of personal information surviving a hard drive data wipe that could be so damaging that removing the drive and tossing both in the river would be necessary to anyone other than someone with rampant paranoia. I am becoming increasingly convinced that another individual was involved and may have driven the mini over the bridge, turned around and driven back over, tossing the PC and a few seconds later, the drive, leaving the ash and the smell in the car.

Slight correction. RFG was seen in the "fiddling" with the laptop while inside the Mini while it was parked in Lewisburg. RFG was seen in the park where the drive was tossed; he was holding something. It could be the drive.

The distances prohibited the drive from being tossed anyplace other than the park (or the river itself). The laptop could have been tossed from the Mini by RFG, from another car, or by someone in the passenger seat. We don't have any real evidence that someone else was in the Mini, except for possibly reaching into it, or leaning in at the window.

I'll concede that someone could have been in the Mini, but not for a long period of time, where they would leave some trace. A killer is taking a risk of leaving some trace in the car, e.g. DNA, fiber or a fingerprint, even for a few minutes. Either a killer, accessory, or a helper, in the case of walk away, would be taking a risk.

The change in demeanor could point to depression, i.e., RFG ultimately becoming suicidal. It could point to anxiety over walking away, i.e., RFG hoping he can pull it off. It could point to being worried about being targeted for violence, but the rest of his actions don't indicate that.

The destruction of the laptop/drive could point hiding his walkaway plans. It could point to wanting to destroy something personal on the drive prior to committing suicide. It doesn't point to foul play, because nobody other than RFG could know what was on the computer. If someone else was looking for something on the drive; he would have no idea if it was on the drive in the first place. If someone else wanted to destroy something on the drive, he'd have no idea if it was the only copy.

Those two things, demeanor and destruction of the data, are consistent with voluntary departure or suicide.

 

[Trackergd]

If someone else was intent on getting damaging information that was on that drive and discovered both were missing, would not that individual(s) have broken into and searched PF/RG's home looking for other copies on disc or paper? Only scenario that works with that is that RG told the individual(s) he had it on his PC and would meet them at a location (other than Lewisburg) so that he had time to destroy the information. Perhaps he was tailed and they caught up with him in Lewisburg (or he contacted them) after he had disposed of the evidence. Just exploring other scenarios.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If someone else was intent on getting damaging information that was on that drive and discovered both were missing, would not that individual(s) have broken into and searched PF/RG's home looking for other copies on disc or paper? Only scenario that works with that is that RG told the individual(s) he had it on his PC and would meet them at a location (other than Lewisburg) so that he had time to destroy the information. Perhaps he was tailed and they caught up with him in Lewisburg (or he contacted them) after he had disposed of the evidence. Just exploring other scenarios.

The person wanting to get that information would have to include RFG's office computer and office files as well.

Tailing RFG would involve following him for 45 minutes to an hour not only through the streets of Bellefonte but down a lightly traveled rural road that have straight stretches with rear visibility for several miles, i.e. RFG could look in his rear view see anything a mile back.

He was also known to drive fairly fast, so someone following him would have to drive fast as well. The witness in Centre Hall said that RFG was driving quickly. RFG, even glancing in the rear view mirror, would see a car not only consistently behind him, but keeping pace with him.

Excluding turns in Bellefonte or Lewisburg, RFG could get to Lewisburg by:

1. Driving west on Route 144 to 150, turning northwest on Route 150 to I-80, going on I-80 east to Route 15 and then going south on Route 15.

2. Drive to I-99 or Route 26 to I-80, then turn south on 15.

3. Drive east on 144 (going through Centre Hall) to Route 45. Go north on 45 to Lewisburg.

4. Drive on 144 to Centre Hall, turning on Route 192 east and going to Lewisburg. This was his known route, at least turning on 192.

Those the general "direct routes." There isn't a "choke point" that RFG would have to pass even if someone knew his destination. There would also be a number of less direct routes.

If it was something that RFG wanted to show someone else, and not make a copy, that would be possible. However, RFG also wanted to destroy everything on the laptop's hard drive. He'd basically be saying **Here is what I have. You can view it, but not copy it. I may or may not have additional copies at home/office/online.** If a killer did not want whatever was on that drive to ever see the light of day, the last thing he would do is kill RFG.

 

[Trackergd]

Homicide for the above reason looks less likely then. Other scenarios involving homicide may have a higher probability.

There was something on his county laptop hiding in the closet that, during a somewhat short time frame, rose to the level of wiping the disc, driving quite a distance away where he most likely would not be recognized, disassembling components from the laptop (drive and card) and tossing them in the river. Many killers don't prepare to that detail nor take that level of care in disposing of the body and evidence (thank goodness, else they would never get caught). It was something that was not on his computer at his office or his home computer. From my analysis of the financial documents, I seriously doubt it was bank accounts. The paranoia of hackers getting your account information was not as rampant then as it is now. I'm rather surprised he did not stick it in a bonfire, then bury what little would be left, but then that could be done from home and messes up the exit plan.

The point being missed here is what rises to the level of this planning, detail, disposal of evidence and going missing? That leaves us very few scenarios, none of them pretty. Part of the key is his demeanor in the days prior to going missing.

 

[Trackergd]

My next area of interest is the "mystery woman". He was seen walking and talking with her. You generally don't do that with a stranger. Wish I knew if he was smiling or looked worried as he had in the previous days. I wonder how large his circle of friends was? I find it unlikely that local LE does not at least have a slim idea who she was.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

There was something on his county laptop hiding in the closet that, during a somewhat short time frame, rose to the level of wiping the disc, driving quite a distance away where he most likely would not be recognized, disassembling components from the laptop (drive and card) and tossing them in the river.

Respectfully snipped.

RFG bought the wipe disk about a year before he vanished.

RFG announced, in January 2004, that he would retire at the end of his term. It was after that, probably within the next 4-5 months, that RFG asked a defense attorney , I wish I could shed some light on who, about how to clean a drive. He's had the software and can clean that computer any time.

RFG gets the home desktop about December. He now has a home computer; he doesn't really need the laptop,except as back up.

At least as of 3/8/05, RFG starts acting a bit unusually. It still takes him 5 weeks to do something with the laptop. I don't see a rush.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

My next area of interest is the "mystery woman". He was seen walking and talking with her. You generally don't do that with a stranger. Wish I knew if he was smiling or looked worried as he had in the previous days. I wonder how large his circle of friends was? I find it unlikely that local LE does not at least have a slim idea who she was.

They initially thought it was former journalist Barbara Petito, but she was on Long Island.

RFG had several female friends over the years, most recently a waitress he proposed to between Emma and PEF.

Here is a list:

1. Barbara, wife.
2. S a wound who knew him in the early 1980's.
3. Petito.
4. "Nurse."
5. Emma, wife.
6. "Waitress"
7. PEF

1, 5, 6, and 7 were not Platonic; the others could have been.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Number 2 should be "S" a woman he knew in the early 1980's when he lived in State College.

This came up before, but on one else that he was associated with went missing.

 

[SeekingJana]

I'm a bit past Ray's age when he went missing.. Hard to believe,but I don't look or feel " old". Most people judge me to be at least 2 decades younger because we don't age like previous generations if we are non-smokers, non- heavy drinkers, and take good care of our skin, hair, teeth and bodies and are free from the traditional diseases of " old age".

Also, there's not a sharp delineation between " young" clothes and " older adult" clothing, hair styles ( or makeup for women) any longer. If a person is trim and fits into slim cut jeans, likely, they wear them some of the weekends. Casual styling has bridged a huge gulf which used to exist in " the look" related to age. Hair styles are not extreme for any age group in his socio-economic group, which is just a bit lower than my socioeconomic group at present, and we mix diamonds and Rolex watches with handmade Nepalese woven beaded bracelets costing a few dollars each. Everything about modern casual styling can be summed up as " eclectic".

OK, most of you are guys, and that paragraph was likely dry as dust for you.
Let me try to liven it up a bit as far as MOTIVATION for leaving goes.
Looking at this from a behavioral psychology standpoint, which I am qualified to do, the age group of the late 50's to early 60's is more like the " middle age" in the higher income brackets among non- minority groups now. Many of my friends ( and myself as well) look at what we've accomplished and what we failed to accomplish, both professionally and in relationships. We have our own " mid life crisis" at times, yes. My mother told me last week she was disappointed that I'd not become an independent nurse practitioner when I was in college. I had to remind her that when I was in nursing school, there was one possible degree and career path and it was " Registered Nurse". No advanced practice acts had been voted into existence in the US except for a very few in extremely disadvantaged areas of the country and the legality was questioned and challenged for about a decade after I'd already been working in ICU.

Ray, being in my current age group, likely had strong impetus to be evaluating both professional life goals and accomplishments and his personal living situation and personal goals. More than likely, as far as we know, he was justifiably satisfied with his professional achievements as he approached retirement.

However, his personal life, like many of us reader sleuths, may have been less than what he wanted for the REST of his life. He could reasonably expect to live 25-30 years longer if he was in the shining excellent health we are told he was in at the time of his disappearance. MAYBE he wanted something exciting and a bit dangerous or maybe a circumstance yet unknown to us propelled him into unfamiliar territory and he was agreeable to the change because he really wasn't leaving a lot behind.

He might have been leaving his retirement, but maybe he wanted Lara to have that amount of money anyway. We don't know!
The retirement fund is always, always used as a reason why he wouldn't leave before his retirement date. But- she was his only direct heir! Maybe he had enough money to live on which we cannot quantify due to his planning strategies and privacy laws in general. Perhaps he had thought long and hard about providing for Lara and her children early, not if/when he died at the age of 90. I think there were other provisions for Patty and Lara as has been stated, likely his life insurance benefits, but I remember my own dad retiring when I was graduating from college and he was in his 50's.
He more or less sat in front of the TV in the family room with Western novels UNTIL the day a bridge contractor called him and asked him to design bridges for a new interstate highway about 50 miles from my parents' hometown.
He was a man energized. I talked to my mother a couple of days ago and she mentioned his official retirement, then this second " career" he was offered and accepted and had a great sense of accomplishment from for the duration of his responsibilities, which was about 5 years. He learned to use computer modeling instead or in addition to hand- drawing meticulous blueprints, to check his structural load calculations with computer- generated statistics for stress failure in different conditions (bridge/ overpass age, traffic average and max. weight, weather, damage from accidents, etc.)

What my daddy had that Ray didn't have was an established family. He had a wife, daughter, and later, a son in law and a grandchild nearby. He was very active in his church and had many very close long term friends.
I don't think Ray had those ties. Still, when my dad's only very beloved grandson was an infant, Dad took a bus trip out to CA and back " because they had a great senior discount for it". What did he do on his trip? We'll never know, but I'm so glad he had the twinkle in his eye and the roving spirit to leave his beloved family for a couple of weeks and take his own road trip... It was likely the most self- directed thing he'd done since he joined the US Navy in WWII at the age of 17. My mother was the dominant force in their household.

I want to say one thing about the " irritation" some of his employees seemed to notice before he went missing. There's another emotion which, if it has to be kept under wraps, mimics " impatience or irritation" very closely.
It's " anticipation".
Think about it. If you have to HIDE your joyful anticipation of a clandestine plan to walk away from your life to someone whom you really love and want to spend the rest of your life with, but can't say one word to anyone about that person, then you are likely going to be much quieter, much more absentminded- seeming. Maybe short-tempered because of the wait time, maybe just " not in the world he walked in" any longer, but with the person he was going to be with shortly.

We do not believe he left PA with a known PA female, which I don't find strange. In the Internet age, that is, in 2005, people were connecting right and left through the Internet and after long months of chatting via emails and real time internet chats, then maybe phone calls, start dating and start a loving relationship. Only problem was- he was sort of, halfway in a relationship of some sort with Patty.

We don't know what the Patty/ Ray relationship was like for him at the time he disappeared, and we never will, most likely. That's his business. We don't know if they wanted the same things for the rest of their lives. A few road trips is NOT " the rest of their lives" and it isn't a true togetherness, anyway. They may have been " soul mates" if such exists, or they may have been casually living together as the passion had cooled or one of them simply wanted something different or something more.

I believe that Ray wanted something more exciting, passionate, different, and thrilling. Most of my criteria for this belief goes back to the nurse he met and asked for her hand in marriage on first meeting. That is the definition of a very dynamic and impulsive personality.

Because I believe his passions and dynamic personality traits were mostly hidden most of the time due to the staid nature of his profession, I don't think my theory about what he may have done really is understood well, and in the process of someone saying " Nah, he wouldn't have done that" we may be selling the dynamic and impulsive part of Ray Gricar very short.

I absolutely believe, in the absence of any indication of foul play which is where we have stood for the entire time he's been missing, he left the area to go, pre-arranged and with mutual consent and joyful anticipation, to someone he had re-connected with via the Internet, or a new lover he'd met through the Internet chat rooms.
Why would he do so in secret? 1) There may have been a large age difference. 2) There may have been another difference between he and his waiting lover which would have been viewed as unacceptable by his peers and friends. I do not know what this would have been but there are several things. Even a decades- past " light" criminal record would have been a blight for a DA's friends and associates, I think. If you love someone enough that you don't want to expose them to cruel scrutiny, then you do keep things quiet and you leave your old friends behind and your old places behind. You put the person you love above circumstances. 3) He really may have been distressed by some of the happenings with Emma when their relationship broke up and they divorced. He could have been extremely glad to get away from her, but distressed by some of the things she may have said about him, or done to him that are not known. Likewise, Patty may have shown a spiteful side at times in private and he wanted to avoid the drama.
I would have wanted to avoid the tears and screaming and friends taking sides. In his case, Patty worked right there in the same town's courthouse where he was so well known. Could he have really " dumped her" for someone in, oh, say Chicago, and retained his good reputation? It all depends on who's doing the judging, which is unfair but we do not live in a vacuum, we live among other people who DO judge us.

I think the reason more hasn't been found out about where he went and with whom or to whom is because HE did the leave-taking with a clear destination, and a partner in love and life waiting for him. Obviously, I believe the unknown person had a home, money, possibly even wealth of their own which would become Ray's as well.

My only real question is: Did he leave the USA or not? I've gone back and forth on this because getting out of the country without detection in 2005 would not have been easy and he wasn't seen at any border that we know of.
I'd like to know how it all turned out for him, yes, but not in a voyeuristic or intrusive way.

I've posted on his case from the beginning as well, and in that strange way of armchair sleuths, I've come to care about this man with the Missing: Declared legally deceased" status very much. I hope dearly that he's had the time of his life for the past 13 years!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I thought I'd look at the Mystery Woman (MW) possibilities, I will do pro and anti and group them:

Scenario 1. It wasn't RFG. It was another man and woman. Pro: No physical evidence of RFG in the SoS. Anti: Independent witnesses to MW, consistent with other sightings timing, physical evidence in the area (100 yards).

Scenario 2. Coincidence. The MW was another shopper and was just generally going the same area and any contact was casual, e.g. MW asking for directions, the time, or about a product. Pro: I have had that happen to me. No reports that they were interacting. Anti: It rarely happens to me. Considering my shopping experience, this happens rarely, less that 1% of the time.

Scenario 3. They were flirting. RFG and the MW never met before and they just decided to flirt. Pro: People do that and mean no harm by it. I have heard of some accounts of RFG doing something like that. Anti: No reports of interaction.

Scenario 4. RFG picked up the MW. It wasn't planned, just a random encounter. What ever happened to him happened after this encounter. Pro: It could explain why the MW never came forward. She had an SO, she was worried about her reputation, didn't want to be the last person who saw RFG alive. It explains the Saturday sightings. Anti: No interaction. RFG arrived in Lewisburg around lunch time. Even if he picked her up around that time, why doesn't head home in the evening. The MW was spotted in the evening. The MW would be unaccounted for not only the night of 4/15-4/16 but from the early afternoon of 4/15. Why doesn't check his voicemail.

Assume Scenario 4. happened:

RFG was heading to Lewisburg on 192; he calls PEF and tells her to let the dog out. He turns off his phone because he doesn't want to be disturbed on his day off. There are very few, if any, unscheduled things that need a DA's need to handle immediately; they do not have to be available 24/7. Calls go to his voicemail (and that was working). He is planning to come back that night.

While he is in Lewisburg, he meets MW and picks her up. Nothing was planned. They decide to spend the night together. Why doesn't RFG check his voice mail,to see if there is something that is a bit more urgent than normal. He spends the night with MW. Why doesn't he check the next morning?

The only answer that I can come up with is that RFG didn't want LE to immediately know that he was in Lewisburg. One night stands are not illegal. PEF cannot check the location of the phone. He was in a spot, SoS, that doesn't tie him to the location of the MW. Picking up a woman does not fit keeping his phone off in Lewisburg.

These four are basically that the MW is incidental to RFG's disappearance. MW's existence was not well publicized until May of 2006. Unless the MW was local, following the story, she may have forgotten a flirtation. In the first two cases, there was nothing to forget.

There is ample evidence that RFG was planning to be in Lewisburg. He googled a map to Lewisburg prior to 4/15/05. He checked the weather in Lewisburg. He was acting unusually at least 5 weeks prior to this trip. The MW, under these four scenarios, would be incidental to RFG's disappearance, i.e. if she exists she's not involved.

MW would also be incidental to the laptop being tossed, or even to it being brought to Lewisburg. I can see RFG going to Lewisburg for some other reason and taking the opportunity to toss the drive and laptop. I can see him going to Lewisburg specifically to toss the drive and laptop. Neither would involve a random encounter with the MW.

None of these explain why RFG didn't turn his phone on in Lewisburg.

These four possibilities provide no explanation for of those things.

I'll be looking at some other, related, MW possibilities.

 

[SeekingJana]

I thought I'd look at the Mystery Woman (MW) possibilities, I will do pro and anti and group them:

Scenario 1. It wasn't RFG. It was another man and woman. Pro: No physical evidence of RFG in the SoS. Anti: Independent witnesses to MW, consistent with other sightings timing, physical evidence in the area (100 yards).

Scenario 2. Coincidence. The MW was another shopper and was just generally going the same area and any contact was casual, e.g. MW asking for directions, the time, or about a product. Pro: I have had that happen to me. No reports that they were interacting. Anti: It rarely happens to me. Considering my shopping experience, this happens rarely, less that 1% of the time.

Scenario 3. They were flirting. RFG and the MW never met before and they just decided to flirt. Pro: People do that and mean no harm by it. I have heard of some accounts of RFG doing something like that. Anti: No reports of interaction.

Scenario 4. RFG picked up the MW. It wasn't planned, just a random encounter. What ever happened to him happened after this encounter. Pro: It could explain why the MW never came forward. She had an SO, she was worried about her reputation, didn't want to be the last person who saw RFG alive. It explains the Saturday sightings. Anti: No interaction. RFG arrived in Lewisburg around lunch time. Even if he picked her up around that time, why doesn't head home in the evening. The MW was spotted in the evening. The MW would be unaccounted for not only the night of 4/15-4/16 but from the early afternoon of 4/15. Why doesn't check his voicemail.

Assume Scenario 4. happened:

RFG was heading to Lewisburg on 192; he calls PEF and tells her to let the dog out. He turns off his phone because he doesn't want to be disturbed on his day off. There are very few, if any, unscheduled things that need a DA's need to handle immediately; they do not have to be available 24/7. Calls go to his voicemail (and that was working). He is planning to come back that night.

While he is in Lewisburg, he meets MW and picks her up. Nothing was planned. They decide to spend the night together. Why doesn't RFG check his voice mail,to see if there is something that is a bit more urgent than normal. He spends the night with MW. Why doesn't he check the next morning?

The only answer that I can come up with is that RFG didn't want LE to immediately know that he was in Lewisburg. One night stands are not illegal. PEF cannot check the location of the phone. He was in a spot, SoS, that doesn't tie him to the location of the MW. Picking up a woman does not fit keeping his phone off in Lewisburg.

These four are basically that the MW is incidental to RFG's disappearance. MW's existence was not well publicized until May of 2006. Unless the MW was local, following the story, she may have forgotten a flirtation. In the first two cases, there was nothing to forget.

There is ample evidence that RFG was planning to be in Lewisburg. He googled a map to Lewisburg prior to 4/15/05. He checked the weather in Lewisburg. He was acting unusually at least 5 weeks prior to this trip. The MW, under these four scenarios, would be incidental to RFG's disappearance, i.e. if she exists she's not involved.

MW would also be incidental to the laptop being tossed, or even to it being brought to Lewisburg. I can see RFG going to Lewisburg for some other reason and taking the opportunity to toss the drive and laptop. I can see him going to Lewisburg specifically to toss the drive and laptop. Neither would involve a random encounter with the MW.

None of these explain why RFG didn't turn his phone on in Lewisburg.

These four possibilities provide no explanation for of those things.

I'll be looking at some other, related, MW possibilities.

Hi, my friend.
I started to add to my post with a post regarding the MW and I didn't beat you to it. LOL. We were thinking of the loose ends at the same time, though.

I had a totally different thought about the MW during my sudden Ray Gricar musings during our overnight thunderstorms.
It's this:
What if the MW was truly an unknown person to Ray? Someone whose purpose was to be a go-between for Ray and his unknown true lady love, if there was one ( I think there was)?
She could be an extremely trusted liaison. Either the girlfriend's friend, a sister or other close relative to the lady, or a trusted employee of the lady.

How better to get plane tickets and car keys to his transportation out of Lewisburg or whatever he needed to him than to go to a shop where he was known a bit but wasn't conspicuous and do the " tourist stroll" for an entirely non- touristy reason?

The SOS seems to have been a place Ray liked to go, could get to easily, would have been able to give good directions for an out of towner. Also, and this is the main point, and to me it shows great intelligence and forethought if they did use a pretty liaison-- once people found out about the MW, a second woman falls out of the picture completely. Is not even thought of as being " the one", but the MW might be thought of as Ray's new GF from then on. Likely, she has been thought of as a person with deeper ties to him than what I believe she had.

They used a decoy, in other words, for shopping that wasn't shopping that day, and he got the last pieces of travel planning he needed at that time.
The unknown woman ( not the MW) paid for whatever means of transportation he needed or requested, and the MW delivered it by hand. No concrete trail.

2 unknown women, one helping another out of loyalty, friendship or familial love. Both with ties to Ray, but very different ties.
Also, because my gut feeling is that he left PA to be with a woman of substance and means somewhere in the world ( maybe she inherited every penny), his lady love is able to shield the MW from ID. Maybe it's as simple as her wearing a wig the day she was in Lewisburg. Maybe it's as complex as she was a pretty lady in her late 40's who was gifted a free facelift and some cheek and chin implants she wanted out of the excursion and very slight risk.

The fact that she's never surfaced points to protection for her, maybe out of the US, by Ray and the person she was a courier for in Lewisburg. Maybe they left Lewisburg together, IDK. I'm not sure that matters at all.

This is my belief regarding who she was and why she was with Ray that one day only. I believe Raystown lake the day before was the initial contact point, but something happened to change the meeting place for the ticket handover and a car to drive to another location, whatever it was he needed to leave PA behind.

I've also wondered, but do not know if the laptop had the capability, for it to have been the couple's last pre- rendezvous communication method. I have a feeling the laptop was going in the river anyway, and if they didn't want cell phone records to show any unusual activity, the laptop may be the way they communicated. We know where his ended up, likely that evening or the next day, as he was on his way out of Lewisburg in a car provided for his use.
JMO after thinking all night about who she was and why she was there. " Helper" fits but doesn't include " decoy".

 

[Trackergd]

I have a feeling that the laptop was used for communications between RFG and another woman. It may have also included pictures. THAT would rise to the level of detailed disposal. The software purchased a year before was kept on hand "just in case" PEF got curious and the "evidence" had to be disposed of quickly. It may have contained exit information and communications with one or more individuals and some related finance "stuff". Even more reason to dispose of it. Wonder how difficult it would be for a DA to get identification documents that were good enough to exit the country without leaving a trail? Anyone in RFG's circle of friends have a dual citizenship? Have we cast the net wide enough?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I have a feeling that the laptop was used for communications between RFG and another woman. It may have also included pictures. THAT would rise to the level of detailed disposal. The software purchased a year before was kept on hand "just in case" PEF got curious and the "evidence" had to be disposed of quickly. It may have contained exit information and communications with one or more individuals and some related finance "stuff". Even more reason to dispose of it. Wonder how difficult it would be for a DA to get identification documents that were good enough to exit the country without leaving a trail? Anyone in RFG's circle of friends have a dual citizenship? Have we cast the net wide enough?

Possible, as to what was on the drive.

The software would clean the entire drive, even taking out operating systems. Why wouldn't he just delete anything? PEF would not be able to pull anything off the drive; there would have be a data recovery company get at it then. If RFG was hiding something by using the software, it was from a forensic examination.

RFG was eligible for dual Slovenian citizenship and could potentially travel on a Slovenian passport; that doesn't prove he had either. In that case, RFG could travel without leaving a paper trail under his US citizenship.

I don't know of anyone in RFG's inner circle that had dual citizenship. His 1st wife, Barbara Gray, taught/lectured in the Belgium and Netherlands. An Olive Branch | Meet Us
I think that she was in Belgium in the spring of 2005, though not when RFG disappeared. She was a visiting professor in 2004, at Tilburg University in the Netherlands. Barbara Gray - Penn State Smeal College of Business .

She gave a presentation at the 2005 conference of the International Association of Conflict Management in Spain; that was June 15.

 

[SeekingJana]

I have a theory on why he wouldn't simply erase the HD and leave the laptop in its case in Patty's house.

First of all, let's set the scene for a clandestine love affair with someone not living in PA. They could not write letters, more than likely, because mail gets opened by anyone and everyone sometimes ( ask my next door neighbor who often gets my personal packages AND general mail).
They likely would NOT use cell phones or land lines to communicate for two reasons. 1) Patty lived and worked with Ray. High possibility she'd find out his secrets, even though he was entitled to have secrets, as she was, as they weren't married or even engaged.
2) Ray and his staff had likely successfully linked people in criminal cases via phone records for years. He knew cell phone use, while being the McDonald's of communication, would leave a trail of dates, times and names. Or just one name he wanted to keep unknown for his OWN reasons.

He lived through the forensic era when blood typing and fingerprinting were finally mostly replaced by DNA testing of evidence. Old cold cases were able to be solved. Remains started being identified, criminals who'd lived free and clear were convicted and put away for life.
Technological advances, most of them using computers, changed forensic criminology forever.
Affordable personal computer technology was also advancing at a rapid and low cost rate in the early 21st century and continues to evolve. He planned for the obliteration of his hard drive data through at least 2 different methods. One method he chose also had the advantage of hiding the physical components long enough for him to be long gone to somewhere else.

If I were a cautious DA with a few personal things on my laptop that I wanted to STAY private and personal, I'd wonder " What if they find a way 10 years from now to recover data that was supposedly " wiped" by a $25 program from Best Buy in the same way perps tried to " wipe" their fingerprints off murder weapons and their DNA off their victim?" Both proved to be ineffectual later, when it was impossible to " undo" anything left behind.

I believe he'd be especially in tune with computer forensic advances because of the MANY forensic science advances he's seen since the beginning of his prosecutorial career.
The FBI could match the ink in a Sharpie marker pen to the exact pen in the Ramsey home in 1997.
There are repositories of car paint color spectrum analyses from the past 40-50 years.
All of this ties into scientific advances because of computer advances.

Ray would have all this historical knowledge firsthand and much more as well. He pondered the question of how to utterly and for all time obliterate data on one laptop for at least a year. When he was ready to obliterate, he chose the one method my husband said he'd use, without having any knowledge of why I was asking him or any foreknowledge of Ray Gricar's hard drive's fate.

The reason no one has solved this mystery in 13 and a half years is because Ray Gricar was a genius at long-term planning, likely was highly adaptable to minor glitches in the plans ( as nothing is perfect) in a nondescript way that blended in and seemed natural, and was highly skilled in keeping his personal activities and feelings safe and to himself, to put it mildly.
Had he not been a DA, I think he'd have been a great actor.

 

[SeekingJana]

I so don't want this to seem shallow, but I am very happy and hopeful that our discussions on this case have both become more frequent recently, and that we seem to have a meeting of the minds on most, if not all, of the major things we believe happened using the principle of Occam's Razor.

This is teamwork, and also our shared recognition of the case facts: No sign of foul play has ever been found to be involved in Ray Gricar's disappearance.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Some of this tie into Jana's post. Some of Jana's post will tie into my next post on the Mystery Woman (MW).

The first set looked at the possibility that MW was not involved in RFG's reason to travel to Lewisburg. This will look at the possibility that RFG's prime reason to go to Lewisburg was the MW.

1. The MW was a witness/informant in a case. Pro: None Anti: RFG did not even have any notes relating to an official meeting. He would deliberately lie to PEF, and his staff. He never turned his phone on in Lewisburg. It did not explain his change in demeanor. There was no one to take a deposition. Finally, why do the walk through of SoS if this is just to get testimony? If he was there on 4/16, why spend the night.

2. The MW was someone RFG met via Internet and this was the initial encounter. Pro: It is a good idea to for the first meeting to be in a public place; the SoS would work. They could have been talking for a while, accounting for RFG's change in demeanor. It would explain the secrecy. Anti: It doesn't explain the phone being off. There was no record of communication, e-mail, cell records. Even if the communication was exclusively via the laptop, RFG was planning to get rid of it.

3. The MW was in a relationship in RFG, but RFG was planning to end it. Pro: It explains his change of demeanor; he's worried about the MW reaction. It explains the secrecy. It could explain the laptop being tossed; there were records, possibly photographs, that he would want to get rid of. Anti: Cell phone turned off. If this was a longer term relationship, it would be more likely that there was a record of communications.

4. The MW was someone associated with a defendant, i.e. the defendant, a defendant's SO or relative. She would be hoping to use sex to get the case dismissed or to get RFG to go easier. Pro: It explains the secrecy. It could explain the laptop being tossed; there were records, possibly photographs, that he would want to get rid of. RFG would become worried about this involvement. It could explain the cell phone being off; RFG didn't want the police to ever put him in the same town as the MW. Anti: No record of communication, but there might not be a record created.

5. RFG is doing something nefarious, getting paid off or selling some information to the MW. Pro: Explains the secrecy. Explains the phone being off. Anti: Doesn't really explain the change in demeanor. Doesn't explain the laptop. Doesn't explain why, after this transaction RFG would stroll with the MW around the SoS, much less spend the night.

None of these things explain the money.

 

[SeekingJana]

Some of this tie into Jana's post. Some of Jana's post will tie into my next post on the Mystery Woman (MW).

4. The MW was someone associated with a defendant, i.e. the defendant, a defendant's SO or relative. She would be hoping to use sex to get the case dismissed or to get RFG to go easier. Pro: It explains the secrecy. It could explain the laptop being tossed; there were records, possibly photographs, that he would want to get rid of. RFG would become worried about this involvement. It could explain the cell phone being off; RFG didn't want the police to ever put him in the same town as the MW. Anti: No record of communication, but there might not be a record created.

5. RFG is doing something nefarious, getting paid off or selling some information to the MW. Pro: Explains the secrecy. Explains the phone being off. Anti: Doesn't really explain the change in demeanor. Doesn't explain the laptop. Doesn't explain why, after this transaction RFG would stroll with the MW around the SoS, much less spend the night.

None of these things explain the money.

Note- I bolded and snipped.
I'm going to play along, but I'll be playing Devil's Advocate, of course, as you'd expect.
With great respect for my fellow poster and Ray Gricar, part of my rebuttal is as follows.

Re: #4: I think Mr. Gricar's moral character and known conduct for many years in office was without blemish. There is no reason whatsoever to think he'd be involved in something illegal, immoral and just plain slimy. This applies to the matters put forth- taking sexual favors in exchange for a dropped case, a light plea bargain, whatever would be " exchanged" for salacious photos and a cheap night or two of meaningless sex with a woman of extremely dubious moral character ( not just because of the sexual favors but because of exchanging justice for it). Remember- there are no victimless crimes, we are told. Thus, a victim or victims would not see justice done.

Next, who has sex with someone connected to a likely criminal in a motel out of town when they are the prosecutorial authority over the case? Isn't that inviting disaster for something he could get free and without concern for his safety in the process? It was 2005, not 1805. He goes into a motel and compromises his case, and his very existence with the lowest of the low? No, I'm 100% certain he'd have the con artist arrested for solicitation and attempted corruption and maybe extortion, not sure.
I'd be afraid for my life to even get in a locked room with such an amoral person connected to a criminal case, as you theorized.

Later, after they'd done the deed, and maybe some money was handed to Ray, is it within the realm of possibility that either person would believe a word out of the other's mouth from that point forward? If Ray was willing to compromise his own morals and health, and be a liar and a coward covertly, what's to keep him from flipping on the woman and prosecuting the case with the kind of vigor that a guilty conscience and loathing can bring?

Was this MW is just supposed to say " Deed done. I believe you'll drop the case against my Meth- making Mama now".
Was Ray supposed to be such a lowlife that he'd say " Hey, this was a lot of fun, anonymous warm body with cash. Sure, your mama can go on making her Meth. in the shack in the woods for as long as I'm the D.A.".

I'd give this a probability of 0/ 5. It's full of holes, the greatest of which is Ray Gricar's unimpeachable character and history in office.

#5) So two snakes in the grass just happen to be bold enough to somehow get around to suggesting/ accepting the terms of corruption of a case or cases, but in this scenario, the D. A. with a clean record is now an extortionist?
Nope. He had strong ADAs. They'd catch his tampering with the evidence in a case of the magnitude you're suggesting.
Also, in case it needs repeating, he had a clean record and there is absolutely no reason to believe he'd do something that could very well get him convicted of extortion, obstruction of justice, witness tampering, and a whole laundry list of crimes for which he would spend the rest of his life in prison.

He was a very respected D.A. and a person of high moral character. There is absolutely no evidence or reason to believe he'd compromise himself with a night of danger ( #4) in which he could well be murdered, or that he'd compromise his freedom for the rest of his life in exchange for money.
I don't even know anyone who would think of doing either thing, and I never have known anyone who would've.
Do you? I don't think so.

Oh, and while this might be the most out- there theories regarding the MW and her raison d'être, what happened to Ray post- criminal activity on your truly hellish weekend? You covered the drop of the laptop into the Susquehanna, but then what happened to him in this work of fiction, LOL? Did aliens decide to exact their own justice and beam him up? Did the Lady of the Lake grab him as he leaned out over the Susquehanna and take him to the depths of Neptune's throne?
I believe you are setting up a murder or suicide theory but there is NO evidence to suggest either. If it was murder, where is the evidence of a crime in the motel, or car, or woods or river, IDK? If it was suicide, how did he hide his body for 13 long years from the scent dogs and later, the scavenger animals in the area? ( sorry to be graphic).

I hope we can keep this discussion more reality- based. Occam's Razor, ya know.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I am playing Devil's Advocate. That said, there have been similar incidents with other DA's in Pennsylvania. We also had the "Sexting Scandal" in 2008 with an ADA in Centre County that RFG actually hired. The ADA promised to easy on the woman's boyfriend, who the ADA was prosecuting.

It is one of those things that we have to keep open. It does answer the "Why would RFG go to Lewisburg, and, clandestinely, meet with the Mystery Woman." We don't know if RFG did go to Lewisburg primarily to meet the MW, but it is possible.

Now, keep in mind that none of those things explain the money situation.

 

[Cherry]

Ty for everyone diving in! Amazing work peeps!

 

[Cherry]

The only other theory I had in this case, was Sandusky. I feel he was the type of criminal who would have committed murder, to hide his years of abuse grooming and pedophilia. He ran in that circle, he could have known; and or been involved. Whatever he had on his PC, it was bad enough to want to wipe. Wasn't Sandusky free when he went missing? Not victim blaming, this is a theory that I feel should have been deeply investigated. xo