PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #15

[J. J. in Phila]

Slicing this up a bit.

I'm at Homicide 10%, Suicide 10% and Walkaway at 80%. No evidence or hint of anything that would rise to the level of having RFG knocked off.

One think I can think of, that is consistent with most of the evidence, is that RFG was ending a relationship with the MW or that they had a lover's quarrel which became physical on her part.

Nothing in his life points to depression deep enough to commit suicide, as I think PF, friends and coworkers would have noticed it.

Genetics. In 2005 it was known that depression could be genetic. In 2011, a genetic link with suicide was discovered. RFG was not an extrovert and tended to keep things in. He also had a distrust of claims of psychological problems.

If RFG had disappeared in a place where his body would likely not be found, I'd double the chance of suicide at least

I don't think the information on the laptop was criminal or sex/money to look the other way. I think it contained communications between RFG and a lover, pictures (possibly explicit) of the lover or both of them together and exit plans. There is a very minor "husband found out RFG was messing with his wife and took him out, but it's very low since if the wife fell out with her husband, she would rat him out.

I would not give a jealous husband a high likelihood of killing RFG, for the reason given. A lover's quarrel, on the other hand, has a higher likelihood. Nobody could rat out the killer because the killer was the only one there.

If I were sure that RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/16/05, the lover's quarrel would be the only realistic murder scenario left.

 

[Quiet Time]

Maybe I'm missing something, I have been reading here tho, periodically.

Why would RG have to SNEAK off/or voluntarily go missing?
Why couldn't he just be open abt it?

Tell his gf this is something he's always wanted to do, live in another country/town/state, and just move?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Maybe I'm missing something, I have been reading here tho, periodically.

Why would RG have to SNEAK off/or voluntarily go missing?
Why couldn't he just be open abt it?

Tell his gf this is something he's always wanted to do, live in another country/town/state, and just move?

Several reasons:

1. RFG's heirs would get more money if he "died" before claiming his pension. If he walks, he will realize eventually he will be declared dead.

2. People could find him.

A. If he was worried that someone eventually going after him, he couldn't tell people where he would be.

B. He also might to have been available to answer questions about old cases. Even if he retired to some distant spot at the end of 2005, in 2011 the Press would be banging on his front door.

3. It might be a certain amount of ego. If he walked away, RFG outsmarted LE. He proved how brilliant he was. Frankly, if he succeeded in doing this, he is brilliant.

I've said that there is a "Motive Problem" in the Gricar case. That is that there can be a number of possible motives for RFG voluntarily leaving.

There is also the possibility that RFG had money overseas, and that the motivation was to go to that money.

 

[Quiet Time]

Ok, I get it, and yes....a def Motive Problem for sure.

 

[Trackergd]

Interesting that Venice Italy is right across the Adiratic Sea from Koper Slovenia. Would be a nice cruise ship trip from here to Italy and then a boat ride from Venice to Koper...with the right paperwork. Anyone check the cruise ship manifests around that time?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Interesting that Venice Italy is right across the Adiratic Sea from Koper Slovenia. Would be a nice cruise ship trip from here to Italy and then a boat ride from Venice to Koper...with the right paperwork. Anyone check the cruise ship manifests around that time?

Not that I know of.

There are a numerous points of entry from Italy, along with Austria, Hungary, and Croatia. Someone could drive across the border, walk across, possibly take a train. and, of course, fly.

While not from directly from Venice to Koper, there are numerous ferries across the Adriatic between Italy and Croatia (which has a land border with Slovenia), including several from Venice.

While there are cruise ships at Koper, I don't know if someone could board one Venice and get to Koper. There are private boats.

If RFG had a Slovenian passport, border crossing should not be a problem.

 

[SeekingJana]

Ok, I get it, and yes....a def Motive Problem for sure.

I'm not sure if you're aware of these two facts, but Ray had a long-standing interest in people who vanish.
1) He was known to discuss the baffling case of missing Medina, OH. Police Chief Mel Wiley. You can do a search and find more articles but here's one on his disappearance. There are facts in this article which I don't believe were known in 2005 regarding the tickets and San Francisco. Hmm.
The Buzz Around Town

2) He was contacted by an author, Pamela West, who wanted to use a long- unsolved murder of a PSU student in a fictional novel. The case was that of Betsy Aardsma. She was killed in PSU's library on November 28th, 1969. Betsy Ruth Aardsma was murdered inside Penn State University's Pattee Library, by an unknown assailant. Thousands of students were interviewed, but no suspects were produced by the police investigation. Almost 50vyears later, the case remains unsolved.

Ray had the case files on this young woman's case in Centre County. The D.A.'s office, that is, Ray Gricar, declined to participate officially, although I believe he did speak to the author about the case, and the book was turned into a very obscure work of fiction as a mystery novel involving time travel. I believe it's out of print.
It was called " 20/20 Vision" and it's believed that Ray did read and discuss the book after it was published. The theme was about time travel, and I believe a recurring theme may have been people " vanishing" because of shifting time travels... This is a minor thing, but it likely did bring up the subject of " vanishing without a trace".
Here's a link to the reviews of the fictional work on Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/20-Vision-Pamela-West/dp/0345367367

 

[SeekingJana]

Re: Name change.

"Cooper", either first or last name. Not too obvious and would be a further " gotcha" on LE.
I feel very strongly that at some point he's used either Cooper or the first name " Coop".

Also it's a pun on " Flew the coop": (idiomatic) To depart hastily or unannounced;

 

[GarAndTeed]

Re: Name change.

"Cooper", either first or last name. Not too obvious and would be a further " gotcha" on LE.
I feel very strongly that at some point he's used either Cooper or the first name " Coop".

Also it's a pun on " Flew the coop": (idiomatic) To depart hastily or unannounced;

Hi All~
@SeekingJana kindly invited me to jump in (thanks!)- since the earliest threads are lost, can someone please tell me how tall Mr. Gricar is? The reason I ask is that I read fiction by Karin Slaughter; she has 2 LE Special agents who are partners; the female drives a Mini, and the male sometimes has to drive it- he's 6'3" & is always complaining that it's uncomfortable because it's so small. Ray looks to me to be about 6', so I was wondering what drew him to get a Mini (I'm not great with cars- forgive me). I want to get a better picture of Ray in my mind. I've been drawn to him since this started; don't know why but it just happens sometimes, you know? I also see Ray & Patty as an unlikely couple- not that I think she's suspicious in any way. If any of you regulars can link me to articles or blogs about Ray, I'd appreciate it (JJ, I used to read your blog faithfully, but I seem to recall it isn't around now <sigh>- I'd be thrilled to be wrong!
Sorry for my "beginner's questions"- I can't do much without a refresher course! J.J., you knew him, did you not?
Thanks again to SJ and to everyone for keeping the flame alive!
Oh, I was TOTALLY lost on the Cooper reference until SJ clued me in-DUH! <still slapping face>

 

[J. J. in Phila]

RFG was 6'. He liked fast cars and not very big cars; the one before it a Mitsubishi convertible.

I've taken a look at Mini Coopers, and they are fairly tall. Here are the dimensions: 2004 MINI Cooper Specs: 2-Door Coupe Specifications

I don't drive a compact, but my car has less leg room than a Mimi. I've been surprised just how roomy they are.

I do not know RFG or PEF.

 

[GarAndTeed]

Thanks, J.J.! Did you ever meet RFG? I'm just curious about any impressions of him. He looks somewhat stern, but he has kind eyes. I seem to recall a photo of him at a party in which he was laughing...
I'm glad my height guess was on target. Thanks for being patient!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I've never met RFG, unless he was at a candidate's night I attended.

RFG seems to attacked to a physical type. His first wife, BG, was at the initial family press conference on 4/18/05. Not knowing who these people were, I thought she was related to PEF (her mother or an aunt). Both are fairly short, both had dark hair; they seem to have the same measurements. Petito, short, with dark hair. I couldn't tell about her measurements.

(I think Jana noticed this in regard to BG and PEF)

His second wife blonde and liked to go out. She doesn't fit the pattern.

 

[GarAndTeed]

Thanks, J.J.
Was RFG considered a good prosecutor? And why was he going to retire? I'm wondering if his sort of depressed/spacey behavior was due to upcoming retirement, or to his (possible) decision to get things in order before he took off...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Thanks, J.J.
Was RFG considered a good prosecutor? And why was he going to retire? I'm wondering if his sort of depressed/spacey behavior was due to upcoming retirement, or to his (possible) decision to get things in order before he took off...

RFG was a good prosecutor. He did some innovative things, charging a John Doe based on his DNA. He did argue cases personally, especially if a death was involved. In a few cases, he had to know that he wouldn't win the case, but he felt that it should be prosecuted. The idea that he didn't fob it off another prosecutor, speaks very well of him.

Like everyone else, he was not perfect; he did make mistakes. Overall, I would say he was a good prosecutor.

 

[Quiet Time]

Yes, SeekingJana I am aware of those 2 things you mentioned.
I just didn't realize he was fascinated with the 'vanishing'.
Thank you.

 

[GarAndTeed]

Da*m, I wish I could've seen him in action...the DNA case is wild- good for him! He seems to be a strong individual. And a man of integrity. Even if he did trash a laptop!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Yes, SeekingJana I am aware of those 2 things you mentioned.
I just didn't realize he was fascinated with the 'vanishing'.
Thank you.

I don't know about other cases, but he was interested in the Wiley case, to the point that he talked about it 8 years after Wiley disappeared.

They didn't know each other while in Ohio; they were from different jurisdictions. Wiley disappeared six years after RFG moved to State College. The case didn't have any ties to Centre County.

 

[Deleted member 227458]

Familial Transmission of Suicidal Behavior

From the above published article, SABBFF:

Summary
It is well-recognized that suicidal behavior runs in families. Adoption and twin studies together make a compelling case that familial transmission of suicidal behavior is in part attributable to genetic factors. There is some evidence that the transmission of suicidal behavior is mediated by the transmission of impulsive aggression. Other, less thoroughly investigated possible mediators include neuroticism and neurocognitive deficits. However, given that at best, around 50% of the variance is explained by genes, there is a significant role for environmental factors as well. The most plausible explanations for non-genetic familial transmission are the intergenerational transmission of abuse and of adverse familial environments. Bereavement and relationship disruption may make a specific contribution to suicidal risk via the development of complicated grief although the long-term effects are likely to be mediated by complex chain of inter-related events. Imitation may also make a contribution to suicidal risk, at least with regard to attempted suicide. However, so-called family environmental factors often are related to risk factors that are heritable. Conversely, and most genetic factors exert their impact on depression and suicidal behavior via an interaction with a stressful environment.

I first heard about the RG story watching the show "Disappeared." As a mental health professional, as soon as I heard that RG's older brother had committed suicide, I thought it most likely that RG had as well. Having an immediate family member who commits suicide is a well-known risk factor.

I know someone who killed themselves and they scrubbed their computer before they did. Nothing was able to be recovered. That is anecdotal info only, but apropos, perhaps.
It's very possible that the reason RG wanted to wipe his laptop is that it contained research on suicidal methods, i.e., most painless, quickest, etc.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Respectfully snipped, and welcome to this thread.

I know someone who killed themselves and they scrubbed their computer before they did. Nothing was able to be recovered. That is anecdotal info only, but apropos, perhaps.
It's very possible that the reason RG wanted to wipe his laptop is that it contained research on suicidal methods, i.e., most painless, quickest, etc.

That is possible.

Equally possible is that RFG had other personal and/or embarrassing things on his laptop.

It is also very possible that RFG had travel arrangements or financial data that would show his location.

The laptop points to something voluntary, which could be walkaway or suicide. If this is suicide, however, why go to such extreme length. He had a commercial wiping program. This was extensive enough to prevent even a forensic examination of the laptop's content.

 

[Deleted member 227458]

Respectfully snipped, and welcome to this thread.



That is possible.

Equally possible is that RFG had other personal and/or embarrassing things on his laptop.

It is also very possible that RFG had travel arrangements or financial data that would show his location.

The laptop points to something voluntary, which could be walkaway or suicide

Thanks for the welcome, J. JiP! I have been silently following along for a long time, finally decided to join the discussion. This is one of the more respectful, thoughtful, cerebral threads on WS, IMO. Such an interesting case, too.

I completely agree re: laptop signaling walkaway or suicide scenarios...I know you entertain other possibilities as well, but to me, it really does come down to either one or the other. IMO, FP is not at all supported by the evidence and known facts.

RG was not married. His daughter was an adult. He was nearing the end of his tenure as DA. He was about to have no real obligations per se. IMO, he did not need to disappear himself to start a new life if he wanted to chart a different course. The possibility of "fresh woods and pastures new" were right around the corner for him already.

2 Questions:
If RG committed suicide, what do you think were his possible reasons for doing so?
If RG did a walkaway, what do you think were his possible reasons for doing so?