PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #16

[Trackergd]

Looking back at the barricade drawing, if the mini were 6" from the barricade, the tip of the laptop would be even with the outer edge of the barricade at 21". That would not put the majority of the weight of the laptop out over the edge. Trying to rest the edge of the laptop on the top of the barricade and then flip it has a degree of inherent risk that the flip would not be successful and the laptop would end up falling between the mini and the barricade onto the road. At 6" I am on the fence. Putting the Mini at more than 6" from the barricade, I don't think it is probable. Wish we had pictures of the passenger side of the Mini to see if there were any scrapes on the trim or paint. J.J may have some.

 

[Trackergd]

Here is a visual.

At 4" from the barricade, the distance from the window to the far side of the barricade is 19" and possible.

At 6" from the barricade, the distance from the window to the far side of the barricade is 21" and while slightly possible, I'm not convinced is probable.

At 8" from the barricade, the distance from the window to the far side of the barricade is 23" and not probable.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

On the retrofitting, I'm assuming that it was present on 4/15/05.

There were no scrapes on the Mini

However, it is possible to toss the laptop, upward, and extend the length that it would travel.

 

[Trackergd]

What I keep wondering is the trip across the bridge, turn around, come back across, pull over as far as possible, lean over and toss the laptop without the cars behind you seeing the event.

What time of day in Lewisburg has little to no traffic on the bridge and fits the timeline of the witnesses that saw RFG in the park that day?

In my view, RFG tossing the laptop from the bridge, then tossing out the hard drive a moment later speaks more to walk away and possibly suicide. If the toss were only possible with a second person in the car, that opens up other possible scenarios.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Late evening would be the ideal time to cross the bridge to toss the laptop.

Snipped for emphasis.

In my view, RFG tossing the laptop from the bridge, then tossing out the hard drive a moment later speaks more to walk away and possibly suicide. If the toss were only possible with a second person in the car, that opens up other possible scenarios.

If it could be demonstrated that RFG could not have tossed the laptop, it would all but eliminate suicide. I could see a murderer, for some unknown reason, tossing the laptop. I could also see a helper doing so, in the case of walkaway.

 

[Trackergd]

So we are back to potentially doing a physical forensics test, with a mini and some laptop sized overcooked brownies, on the bridge. J.J. We are rapidly reaching the point where we have performed almost as much of a thorough financial and physical forensics investigation as LE. Possibly more so.

That seems rather odd for a missing sitting DA. Seems to me that if he were in witness protection, you would think by now that the U.S. Federal Marshals would have contacted one of us so we would not inadvertently blow his cover.

 

[Kittybunny]

So we are back to potentially doing a physical forensics test, with a mini and some laptop sized overcooked brownies, on the bridge. J.J. We are rapidly reaching the point where we have performed almost as much of a thorough financial and physical forensics investigation as LE. Possibly more so.

That seems rather odd for a missing sitting DA. Seems to me that if he were in witness protection, you would think by now that the U.S. Federal Marshals would have contacted one of us so we would not inadvertently blow his cover.

Thank you SO much for taking the time doing an analysis of the probability of the tossing of the laptop from a moving vehicle. I will also say that in 2005, laptops were not quite as light as they might be today. Of course I don't know the weight of the make and model of Ray's laptop, and I am a woman so not as strong as Ray might be, but I can lift my current laptop with one hand but would have a lot of trouble tossing it in any way shape or form, let alone upwards and then out with any precision. My old 2011 Lenovo? Fuhgeddit about it! That thing is HEAVY, I can't even pick it up with one hand.

So based on Trackergd's excellent work, I think it seems unlikely he tossed it from a moving vehicle. The margin of error seems a bit too narrow. And I'm sorry to do this since I should go back and read, but what is the reason it is assumed that it had to be tossed from a moving vehicle rather than parking and throwing it in? Is it because there is no pedestrian access? Or is it because people think he would have been spotted?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Remember that the drive was out prior to tossing.

 

[Trackergd]

No doubt the drive could have been tossed from the bridge. The question is was there one or two people in the mini?

If two, was one of them RFG?

There is no designated pedestrian walkway on the bridge. There is a marked shoulder on both sides. The down river side has a railing on it. the up river side does not.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

No doubt the drive could have been tossed from the bridge. The question is was there one or two people in the mini?

If two, was one of them RFG?

There is no designated pedestrian walkway on the bridge. There is a marked shoulder on both sides. The down river side has a railing on it. the up river side does not.

I do not agree that the drive could have been tossed from the bridge and could have ended up where it was found. Even a professional athlete, a football quarterback or baseball pitcher, could not have tossed it that distance. While it could have easily cleared the barrier, it would have had to have been moved from where it landed. It was upstream from the bridge, so the water didn't push it.

 

[Trackergd]

Do you think it was tossed from the shore?

 

[Trackergd]

Was the laptop upstream or downstream from the bridge? I seem to remember upstream.

 

[Trackergd]

Late evening would be the ideal time to cross the bridge to toss the laptop.

If it could be demonstrated that RFG could not have tossed the laptop, it would all but eliminate suicide. I could see a murderer, for some unknown reason, tossing the laptop. I could also see a helper doing so, in the case of walkaway.

This could bring the ash and smell of smoke into play.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

First, Track is correct; both the laptop and drive were upstream.

I think it is exceptionally likely that it was tossed from the bank. It was found about 50 from the bank; I've done simulations with a drive (one slightly heavier drive), and I could easily toss it that distance, abet underhanded. Keep in mind that RFG was in better physical shape than I am.

The distance, at a minimum, from the bridge to where the drive was found was over 250 feet. The drive was not aerodynamic like a football or baseball. Further if the person who tossed it was standing on the bridge, it would be difficult. If seated in a car, it would be impossible as the tosser couldn't get his full body weight into the throw. There is also the possibly of intervening trees that could have blocked the throw.

One of our former posters suggested that "kids playing" may have found it and didn't know what it was. They, in that scenario, could have moved it closer while playing with it. It is possible, but not even plausibly.

I could not say that it was absolutely tossed from the bank, but it is hugely likely that it was.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

This could bring the ash and smell of smoke into play.

It could. It could also have been someone who leaned into the car to ask for directions and isn't tied to the disappearance, though that is unlikely.

Keep in mind that there was no physical evidence that someone else was in the car.

 

[skoogmagoo]

It could. It could also have been someone who leaned into the car to ask for directions and isn't tied to the disappearance, though that is unlikely.

Keep in mind that there was no physical evidence that someone else was in the car.

It probably wasn't tossed from Ray's car. It was probably tossed from the car Ray left the parking lot in. He thought he was coming back, that's why he locked the car and took his keys and laptop with him.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It probably wasn't tossed from Ray's car. It was probably tossed from the car Ray left the parking lot in. He thought he was coming back, that's why he locked the car and took his keys and laptop with him.

That is a possibility, but it can't be proven.

 

[Trackergd]

So it is probable that the drive was tossed from the bank after Ray removed it from the laptop, then Ray or an as yet unidentified individual tossed the laptop from a car on the bridge. If this is the consensus, it does move us forward a bit.

I can't get past the ash and smell in the car. I don't think it is probable that Ray would tolerate someone leaning into the car while smoking or a passenger smoking in his car. I would not as I am very sensitive to cigarette smoke.

Some possible scenario's to discuss:

• Ray was driving the mini and tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge (yet to be proven 100% one way or the other by forensic investigation).
• Ray was driving and a passenger tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge (more probable to me based on initial forensic evaluation).
• An unknown actor was driving and tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge.
• An unknown actor was driving and an associate tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge.

I concur that the most likely scenario is that the drive was tossed from the embankment, notably because a witness report puts Ray in that location and fiddling with the laptop. Having extensively walked that area of the park, it appears to be the most probable scenario to me. I suspect that having tossed the drive into the river from the embankment, Ray already knew or quickly realized that he would not be able to toss the laptop far enough out to preclude it being quickly found.

What throws a monkey wrench into things for me is if Ray was planning to meet someone at Lewisburg. The mystery woman has never been identified so we do not know if she was a confederate or chance encounter. A confederate would make the tossing the laptop from the bridge much more probable, but the fact she has not come forward, despite media coverage at the time, may lead us in other directions. It would all but eliminate the probability of suicide and leave us with walk away (preferable) or homicide (disturbing). I am left with wondering why LE did not perform a much more thorough forensic and financial investigation, given this was a sitting DA, and why subsequent DA's and Governors have not pushed for a public resolve to the case. Almost as if the powers that be in PA wish this case would fall from the public's collective memory. Heck, if this had happened in Chester County, it would have received 10 times the media coverage and investigation. The public would have been demanding answers.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped for brevity only. I do want to focus on the drive/laptop in this post and the investigation.

So it is probable that the drive was tossed from the bank after Ray removed it from the laptop, then Ray or an as yet unidentified individual tossed the laptop from a car on the bridge. If this is the consensus, it does move us forward a bit.

The tossing of the drive from the bank a near certainty. It is very likely RFG did toss it, though there a slight possibility someone else did.

I can't get past the ash and smell in the car. I don't think it is probable that Ray would tolerate someone leaning into the car while smoking or a passenger smoking in his car. I would not as I am very sensitive to cigarette smoke.

Some possible scenario's to discuss:

• Ray was driving the mini and tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge (yet to be proven 100% one way or the other by forensic investigation).
• Ray was driving and a passenger tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge (more probable to me based on initial forensic evaluation).
• An unknown actor was driving and tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge.
• An unknown actor was driving and an associate tossed the laptop into the river from the bridge.

It seems to me very unlikely that a passenger tossed the laptop from the Mini while RFG was driving, or RFG was a passenger in the Mini. There is not any evidence that anyone other that RFG was actually in the Mini. That does not preclude it being dropped from a passenger in another vehicle.

I am left with wondering why LE did not perform a much more thorough forensic and financial investigation, given this was a sitting DA, and why subsequent DA's and Governors have not pushed for a public resolve to the case. Almost as if the powers that be in PA wish this case would fall from the public's collective memory. Heck, if this had happened in Chester County, it would have received 10 times the media coverage and investigation. The public would have been demanding answers.

There are some answers that deal with the dynamics of the investigation. There was a huge amount of coverage by the media in Centre County. The problem is that this is a nearly 15 year old case and there is no too much news.

Part of the reason for the initial conduct of the investigation was that everybody thought it was suicide. RFG was in a profession with a relatively high rate of suicide; he was approaching a life transition, There is history of suicide in the Gricar family, by jumping into a river, and the initial reports were that RFG was acting as though he had the symptoms of depression. The Gricar brothers, even before getting to Lewisburg, were thinking suicide. That explains the initial reactions.

After that, most of the parties were worried about legacy protection. The BPD didn't want people to think that RFG could have met a woman, so they did not play up the "mystery woman" until May of 2006. You even have people complaining about discussing the possibility of RFG being with another, even though he had been in three long term relationships and had dated numerous women in between. Some people have considered the possibility of voluntary departure to be some sort of stain on RFG and that would lead to public "outrage." So you have that.

The Governor, and we've had three since the disappearance, will not be involved in a local law enforcement investigation; it is a separation of power issue. First elected DA who basically investigated by press release, at best; it was contributing factor in his loss.

We also have a family that does not want to discuss finances and then dropped off the radar. Initially, that is understandable, but the estate was settled almost 7 years ago. If RFG was doing estate planning, that would certainly point to something voluntary. Some of that is now out in the public record, so it does make sense to keep it secret, specially if it would not point to something voluntary.

 

[embufum]

From the FBI missing poster.

Remarks:
Ray Gricar may also use the names Ray Lange or Ray Gray. He was last seen wearing a blue fleece jacket, jeans, and tennis shoes. He has ties to Ohio and California.