PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, former district attorney, Bellefonte, 15 Apr 2005 - #17

[Black Diamond]

So using some nerd math along with the percentages I listed in the last post, I come up with a 54% chance that Ray's disappearance will be solved in the next 50 years.

 

[gregjrichards]

There was Bluetooth in 2005? Wait, I know the answer to this. Yes there was. My husband's former BMW was a 2005 and Bluetooth was built into the car.
Could BMW have done something similar with the Minis starting with their debut model? IDK.

Those walkie talkies likely have a slick modern name. but as my friends could not easily use their cell phones in Canada to talk to each other when they were separated by a few miles, they used the little comm. devices.

They looked more like the Star Trek communicators than any phone, so they are really sleek and well, something I'd like to get for our house. as separated as we are and with 4 dogs, 2 who are deaf.

I lost the URL to the podcast. I am not sure I believe a lot of what she says but maybe because we were told so little, new info seems almost " suspect" after so many, many years. IDK.

I looked into this if I remember correctly Ray drove a 2004 Red BMW Mini Cooper USA model. According to the specification of this model it came with a AM/FM CD Controller stereo with six speakers it would not have had Bluetooth. Used 2004 MINI Cooper Specs & Features | Edmunds The BMW Mini Cooper did not have the option to purchase a Bluetooth And USB/iPod Adapter when ordering the vehicle until 2009 Used 2009 MINI Cooper Specs & Features | Edmunds

From my research of the specifications of this model I found that the BMW Mini Cooper USA model was not pre wired for Bluetooth until the facelift edition started production from January 2005. Facelift mini's, produced Jan 2005 onwards were prewired for Bluetooth, with buttons, but no hardware (except the buttons). There were aftermarket kits and upgraded stereo systems which became available for purchase that could be fitted to the 2004 Mini Cooper but I do not know if these were readily available prior to Ray’s disappearance.

Your husband’s BMW would have had Bluetooth as the BMW models were more technologically advanced and had a much higher standard specification and available optional upgrades than the Mini models. The Mini models would not get the technology that BMW models commonly had as standard until several years later.

 

[Trackergd]

Ray, if you ran off to the Ukraine, now would be a good time to come home.

 

[Ozoner]

My probability for each scenario of having a near definite conclusion by year 2070 when I’ll be too old to care anymore:
- suicide, 75% chance his body is found

Snipped.

I have to disagree with you here.

If he committed suicide, then there's at least a 50% chance that he went into the river. If his body rose to the surface and was missed, it probably floated downstream and eventually broke into numerous small pieces, perhaps at one of the small dams downriver. If that's what happened, then there's almost no chance that he'll be found at this point.

If he committed suicide on land, then there's probably a 75% chance that he'll be found eventually.

That puts the chances of his being found at no better than 37.5% if he committed suicide.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

First, welcome.

The laptop is found:
So, from my readings here it seems the laptop was found UPstream of the bridge over the Susquehanna. The laptop was found by fisherman a few months after Ray went missing, and then presumably different fisherman found the removed hard drive at some point after that.
1. I will say with 99% certainty that a laptop or a hard drive could not be thrown more that 50’ horizontally up stream from that bridge. I can also say with the same certainty that after a few months they would be washed downstream beyond the bridge, unless they were on the bank. To me it’s almost not possible that they were thrown from the bridge.
2. Does anyone here know exactly where they were found? Like drawing a red dot on a screenshot from Google Earth?
3. Were the fisherman interviewed and if so is there any public info about it? Such as, what was the disposition of each piece when it was found? Why did the fisherman that found the laptop report it to the police? I fish rivers a lot and finding junk is commonplace. If I had ever found a laptop in the water not sure I’d think it was something the police would want to see. The hard drive is a little easier to understand because it came after the public knew about the laptop.

Let me try to answer some of these questions:

1. The drive was found more than 50 feet upstream from the bridge. It was impossible to have been thrown from the bridge and have landed where it was found. The laptop was found near the bridge on the upstream side, I believe near the second support. It was close and could have dropped from the bridge.

2. The box is where the nephew, Tony Gricar, said the drive was discovered. You can see the second support in photo, so probably within 10 yards of that. (Photo is from TG.)



3. The laptop had been widely reported to be missing and the laptop had a sticker showing it was the property of Centre County. There were calls from LE to report anything found and there was a reward for information leading to RFG's whereabouts.

 

[minazoe]

it's all very spooky isn't it?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Slovenia:
Apparently Ray made several trips to Slovenia in the past to visit relatives. Is this confirmed? If so, is there any public record indicating whether the police did or did not attempt to contact any of these relatives to ask if they heard from or saw Ray after the disappearance date? Surely with a little research the police could have pulled that off.

Yes, by both his nephew and it is in the FBI file.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped for brevity only

The trip to Raystown:

1. Supposedly a doctor that knew Ray saw him near a boat launch. Is there any public record of any further details on this, like did the doctor speak to Ray or just see him? Did he see just the mini, just Ray, or Ray in the mini?

The doctor recognized him, from the reports I've had.

2. There are about 10 boat launches at Raystown. I have launched a boat from 4 of them. I’ve seen what appears to be speculation here that he was seen at the Aitch launch. Anything definite? Aitch is the crappiest of the 4 launches I have used, and there is nothing to do there besides launch a boat or maybe walk around a little.

Aitch was the closest and the easiest one to fit the timeline.

3. Ray took a several hour jaunt to the lake in the middle of business hours, then goes back to Bellefonte and spends a few hours in the courthouse after normal business hours. Not uncommon for someone like him to have that flexibility since he didn’t have a boss, but does anyone know if that was something he commonly did? Did PF or anyone else employed at the courthouse make any comments that would shed light on whether this was Ray acting strangely or usual behavior for him?

RFG was known to drive for relaxation and liked automobiles. There was nothing on the schedule for anything after 10:30 AM on 4/14. Nothing on 4/15. There was something related to a recusal of an ADA on 4/18. After that, there was nothing pending in court until June 2.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The only piece of "new" information was a confirmation that RFG had an additional tax bill of $10 K, minimum. Buehner had indicated that it was capital gains.

The capital gains tax rate was 15%, which meant that gain would have been in excess of $66,500. In other words, if RFG bought $10,000 (the "initial investment") in stock and sold it for $76,500, he would have had to have paid this much tax.

We don't know how much the "initial investment." It should not have included the sale of his house, if he lived in it for more than one year. The fist $250,000 profit from the sale of a house is exempt from capital gains; if you bought a house for $150 K, lived in it for at least a year, and sold it for $300 K, your profit was $150 K. The house sold for less than $250 K so it should have been tax exempt.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

it's all very spooky isn't it?

I don't know if I'd use the would "spooky."

There is a range of the kind of things that could have happened, all of which are mundane:

1. RFG committed suicide.
2. RFG was the victim of foul play.
3. RFG walked away.

Even the "something else" category includes things like accident or amnesia well before we get to dimensional portal.

 

[bykerladi]

I just find it so hard to believe he walked away from his daughter.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I just find it so hard to believe he walked away from his daughter.

There are several possibilities:

1. He did tell his daughter, directly.

2. He told his daughter indirectly, either through a third person or by giving her hints or both.

I tend not to think it was the first one, though possibly the second.

He may have delayed telling her until she was polygraphed or until after he was declared dead.

There is a reason to leave her behind, from RFG's standpoint. His daughter and girlfriend would split his pension if he "died" prior to collecting it.

 

[minazoe]

what was the recusal about? sorry can't remember...mOO

 

[J. J. in Phila]

what was the recusal about? sorry can't remember...mOO

Another ADA had a possible conflict of interest with a witness. RFG was either going to try to argue that there was no conflict. If that failed, RFG would be the one examining the witness.

Even if RFG was not there, yet another ADA could have examined the witness; he did not need to be there personally to do that.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

One other thing that I noticed was that there was no recent purchase of life insurance. The last purchase was 1986. That blows away the "estate planning" theory.

 

[Trackergd]

Ray was savvy enough to know that any purchase of life insurance just prior to going missing would have thrown up red flags...if he walked away.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Ray was savvy enough to know that any purchase of life insurance just prior to going missing would have thrown up red flags...if he walked away.

Just before, yes. Several years before, no.

Life insurance can be an estate planning tool. You put your savings into it and your heirs get it without having to pay tax on it. Even late in life, mid-50's a $100,000 life insurance policy, paid up, might cost $50K-$60K, but you heirs will be getting the difference and saving taxes on it.

RFG purchased his last policy at 40.

 

[Trackergd]

The lack of a significant life insurance policy indicates to me that his departure was not an event planned over a long period of time. More like last minute due to a stressor of some nature given his behavior prior to going missing.

• Did not tell PF the truth about what he was up to that day.
• Had been acting distracted or not his usual self by individuals who knew his personality.
• Visited an antique shop prior to going missing. His favorite hobby.
• Purposely disassembling his laptop and tossing the hard drive in the river.

To me, this all screams "goodbye". Lack of remains on land or in the river reduce the suicide percentage somewhat but does not completely rule it out. The mystery woman reported to be with him at the SOS is just not enough to go on. When I was boots on the ground in the area and in the SOS, I talked to other folks as well. Any number of reasons he could have been talking to her.

I'm still on the fence with the laptop, minus the drive. Did RG toss it or did someone else toss it after figuring out the hard drive had been removed?

So I keep going back to what was the stressor in his life and what was on that laptop that he felt compelled to wipe it and destroy it? Sort of reminds me of the characters smashing the printer in the movie Office Space. He left the mini in Lewisburg knowing it would be found eventually. I am 100% convinced there was something damning on the laptop to someone that RG never wanted to see the light of day.

It is telling to me that no subsequent DA, Governor or State Rep has initiated a deep dive into the case, which in all reality should have been an FBI investigation in my mind. What do they know that we don't? Smells like RG was willing to vanish and the State and Local Government were happy to let him do so with a symbolic search to keep the press from asking too many questions or doing too much digging of their own. Also smells like this went higher up the food chain to some degree.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I just saw this. There were transfers to an unknown account from his checking account. One went to an account listed as "SAV" in his records and to one titled "VG." PEF assumed that there was a retirement account, but none were found. That does not scream "suicide." It does indicate some planning, but not retirement planning nor estate planning.

The was approximately a year's lapse between asking about how to get rid of the data and disappearing.

While choosing the exact day may have been a more proximate decision, it seems to be much longer term plan.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped only for emphasis.

So I keep going back to what was the stressor in his life and what was on that laptop that he felt compelled to wipe it and destroy it? Sort of reminds me of the characters smashing the printer in the movie Office Space. He left the mini in Lewisburg knowing it would be found eventually. I am 100% convinced there was something damning on the laptop to someone that RG never wanted to see the light of day.

It is telling to me that no subsequent DA, Governor or State Rep has initiated a deep dive into the case, which in all reality should have been an FBI investigation in my mind. What do they know that we don't? Smells like RG was willing to vanish and the State and Local Government were happy to let him do so with a symbolic search to keep the press from asking too many questions or doing too much digging of their own. Also smells like this went higher up the food chain to some degree.

I have heard that, in 2009, when the DA and BPD released the computer searches, TG complained. He was told that, if he pushed, many more damaging things would come out. It was after that he dropped off the radar for a while. I did hear this contemporaneously, but I cannot otherwise verify it.

"Damaging" could be more information that RFG walked away or it something else.