siriunsun
Former Member
Supposedly the Army lost them.
Hmmm........does the army lose things like that? What about before she enlisted?
Supposedly the Army lost them.
The big questions would be, "Was he a killer then at age __ ? Was he that organized? Did he then have the means, the experience, the assistance, etc?"
Say What?! Where was the killer at age___?! Honestly.......who cares how old RAW or LLW was when suspected of being involved?
My comment was meant more as a general observation, not a criticism of this thread. I'd agree it is likely some of the cases are related.
The criticism of jurisdiction problems seems like something that might have applied long ago but if a police officer goes to another area to get information today it would be doubtful there would be any difficulty. As for connecting cases that happen across wide areas, that would be the responsibility of the state police or FBI. There are probably databases with features of crimes and full time people entering new crimes by feature.
Regarding the Lyon case specifically, do you think the Welch confession is accurate? There seem to be details that could be checked, such as the presence of a young relative in the car during the kidnapping.
For most crimes it would obviously seem necessary to consider changes in a person if you were to try to connect them to a previous crime. A person could have been a bank robber that went on to become a businessman. That would not be unusual. But specifically with child abduction, in order to guess how much the abductor might have changed you would first have to know for sure the motive of the abduction.
If the Lyon sisters were abducted for ransom, as unlikely as that might seem, the abductor might be hard to identify. He would be very unlikely to still be a kidnapper. Considering that they were the children of a local celebrity media figure it seems possible though.
If they were abducted for pedophilia though, it is likely the abductor is still a pedophile. In other words you would probably expect a person who was a pedophile in 1975 or whenever to still be one today.
The murder might be something that would fall in the first category. Most people are slower to violence as they age, including criminals.
Again, my comment, and specifically the part you requoted, were not meant to criticize your speculation which is simply presenting facts and looking for a connection. The criticism had to do with the irrational drama of reporters, including the article I cited, and police, including the example I gave. A lot of people in this kind of case seem to deliberately ignore and even misrepresent evidence.
I am reminded again of the Esar Met case. There are substantial examples of inaccurate information that police and others gave in order to make Mr Met look guilty. It is very similar to the Central Park jogger case and hundreds of other cases. In this case, the Lyon case, there seem to be some small problems with the Welch confession. I personally, at this point, like to see some sort of evidence beyond the sayso of law enforcement. Hopefully if the Welch confession is true then it will be made public in a credible way.
The age of Thomas Welch (11 years old in 1975) would also be a very important factor in the case. Lloyd told police that Thomas was present in the car with the Lyon sisters. Was he involved? If so, to what extent? Was he just a witness? Was he even there? Regardless of anything he may have done since 1975, his age (in 1975) alone would probably be reason enough for prosecutors to NOT charge him with anything. And his age at the time would be a factor to consider should he be called as a witness.
Richard Welch was about 33 years old in 1975. He has no known criminal record.
For starters, we have a little girl, blonde, age 12 (same as Sheila), same first name as Katherine (Kate) who was aparently abducted and who is still missing many years later.
The Lyon sisters went missing from their home area in Maryland, while Katie went missing from her home in Charlottsville, Virginia. Charlottsville is about a two hour drive from Kensington, Wheaton, MD and about halfway between there and Bedford County, VA where recent search activity has been centered in regard to police theories that the Lyon sisters were buried there.
The person convicted of Katie's abduction and murder seems to have a personality and history similar to a current Person of Interest in the Lyon case.
Those are just a few similarities that caught my attention in regard to the Lyon case. There may be similarities to other cases discussed here as well.
It is very obvious that most individuals who commit these types of crimes do it over and over again. Perhaps finding links to other crimes - both solved and unsolved - will lead to resolution of some of the more difficult ones.
There is seldom a "carbon copy" similarity as seen on TV where everything is the same from one crime scene to another, but perhaps one or two common elements might be recognized as more than just a coincidence.
I dounbt the name has anything to do with it
One girl disappeared in the middle of the night
two girls disappeared in the middle of the day
Not the same
I dounbt the name has anything to do with it
One girl disappeared in the middle of the night
two girls disappeared in the middle of the day
Not the same
A general observation. There are very few stranger abductions in the U.S., about a hundred, or so. And of those a fairly small percentage involve murder or a permanently missing person, I don't remember the exact statistic. Also, that kind of thing is often a repeat crime, the person continues until caught or dead.
Putting those two factoids together, the chances of any two missing children in one small area being related are higher than a person might guess. Those two cases might or might not be related, but the simple fact that two abducted children were within a hundred miles and seven years apart give them a fair chance of being related.
Again, I scratch my head over how two children can be abducted in Salt Lake city fifteen blocks apart on the same street, within two years, with two separate people arrested and convicted, and both cases full of inaccurate information given by the police and FBI, and yet no one asks any questions. That baffles me.
Here is my impression. I do have a fondness for conspiracies and a deep mistrust for most law enforcement types, so that colors it.
1) From http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/02/2...t-maryland-mall-with-sisters-on-day-vanished/ The young person who was in the car was interviewed by reporters and his answers make it seem very unlikely he was in a car involved in kidnappings. His answers though do show hostility to Lloyd, the one who made the accusation / confession. Assuming the hostility is mutual that would explain part of the confession. It seems extremely unlikely an 11 year old would be in a car that kidnapped two similarly aged kids, first of all, and then that he would never mention it. It borders on silly. And then, at that house, supposedly the next day Lloyd says things that seem improbable, at best.
2) So why the confession? Was it initiated by him, or was it solicited in some way by law enforcers? I'm reminded of the initial comments that I read on this case by simplifymylife. How common is it for a 40 year old case to suddenly be solved this way? And correlate that with the recent posts by various people on this case. In other words was the case 'solved' abruptly because for the past few years people have been digging into the case, coming up with ideas etc? Or is it a coincidence? Did some people in law enforcement feel pressure to resolve this case publicly, if shakily?
Here is my impression. I do have a fondness for conspiracies and a deep mistrust for most law enforcement types, so that colors it.
1) From http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/02/2...t-maryland-mall-with-sisters-on-day-vanished/ The young person who was in the car was interviewed by reporters and his answers make it seem very unlikely he was in a car involved in kidnappings. His answers though do show hostility to Lloyd, the one who made the accusation / confession. Assuming the hostility is mutual that would explain part of the confession. It seems extremely unlikely an 11 year old would be in a car that kidnapped two similarly aged kids, first of all, and then that he would never mention it. It borders on silly. And then, at that house, supposedly the next day Lloyd says things that seem improbable, at best.
2) So why the confession? Was it initiated by him, or was it solicited in some way by law enforcers? I'm reminded of the initial comments that I read on this case by simplifymylife. How common is it for a 40 year old case to suddenly be solved this way? And correlate that with the recent posts by various people on this case. In other words was the case 'solved' abruptly because for the past few years people have been digging into the case, coming up with ideas etc? Or is it a coincidence? Did some people in law enforcement feel pressure to resolve this case publicly, if shakily?
Here is my impression. I do have a fondness for conspiracies and a deep mistrust for most law enforcement types, so that colors it.
1) From http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/02/2...t-maryland-mall-with-sisters-on-day-vanished/ The young person who was in the car was interviewed by reporters and his answers make it seem very unlikely he was in a car involved in kidnappings. His answers though do show hostility to Lloyd, the one who made the accusation / confession. Assuming the hostility is mutual that would explain part of the confession. It seems extremely unlikely an 11 year old would be in a car that kidnapped two similarly aged kids, first of all, and then that he would never mention it. It borders on silly. And then, at that house, supposedly the next day Lloyd says things that seem improbable, at best.
2) So why the confession? Was it initiated by him, or was it solicited in some way by law enforcers? I'm reminded of the initial comments that I read on this case by simplifymylife. How common is it for a 40 year old case to suddenly be solved this way? And correlate that with the recent posts by various people on this case. In other words was the case 'solved' abruptly because for the past few years people have been digging into the case, coming up with ideas etc? Or is it a coincidence? Did some people in law enforcement feel pressure to resolve this case publicly, if shakily?
1. I would hope that MCP interviewed the 11 Year Old Boy (Thomas Welch, Jr) back in 2013 immediately after Lloyd Welch claimed that he was present in a car with the Lyon Sisters on 25 March 1975. Who knows what he might have said at the time? His statements to the News Reporters could mean anything. It would be interesting to hear his whole story and what he does remember regarding the Lyon sisters - either from hearing about it or from actually meeting them (if he did).
2. If you believe the story told by MCP, it was Lloyd who initiated a story of some sort back on 1 April 1975. His stepmother recalls him reading about the Lyon sisters on that date and saying that he wanted to collect a reward which had just been announced. She further states that he called in a tip, but that she doubted he actually knew anything.
MCP claims that Lloyd approached a Wheaton Plaza Security Guard and related a story to him and that the guard called in MCP to question Lloyd further. MCP gave Lloyd a polygraph test and determined that Lloyd was being deceptive in his statements and sent him away.
In 2013 (or possibly earlier) MCP became interested in Lloyd Welch again. MCP claims that this was because a new case officer had reviewed the files and came up with Lloyd's 1 April 1975 interview and statements, and further that they connected him with a previously unreleased sketch of an unknown Long Haired Man seen at Wheaton Plaza the day the girls went missing. It has also been suggested that Lloyd may have made statements to a younger cousin who visited him in his Delaware Prison.
How ever MCP became aware of Lloyd, they DID question him in prison and evidently obtained statements from him which implicated his Uncle Richard "Dick" Welch in the abduction of Sheila and Katherine Lyon. It is anyone's guess HOW MCP investigators obtained those statements. Here are a few possibilities:
- Did Lloyd feel true remorse and want to clear his conscience and make a full confession?
- In 2013, Lloyd was up for possible early release from prison. Did investigators hint to Lloyd that they would put in a good word for him if he cooperated?
- MCP made an effort to ascertain whether or not WMAL would still honor the $7,000 reward they offered back in 1975. Had they hinted to Lloyd that he might be able to collect on it, based on his 1 April 1975 tip?
- Does Lloyd actually know for a fact that his uncle was responsible for the girls' disappearance and did MCP get him to feel anger toward his uncle, or remorse and sympathy for the Lyon family?
- Did MCP investigators hint to Lloyd that the girls' bodies had been found and that he was the prime suspect in their murder? Note that Lloyd's statement implicates his uncle as abducting and raping the girls, but he claims to have not seen them again. Further, he has sent a letter to the Washington Post denying any involvement in the girls' murder. How did murder become an issue for him to comment on?
- Is his statement an attempt to minimize his participation and deflect blame?
- Does MCP have more solid evidence linking Lloyd to other crimes which they used to coerce/coax him to cooperation in the Lyon case?
I want to state that the above are just questions for consideration and possible speculations as to why Lloyd offered his statements to MCP investigators, not absolute facts.
Only MCP and Lloyd know the factual answer to your question at this point. If the case ever comes to trial, it will be a very important question to be answered.
What were the initial comments from me about the case that you were referring to that you read?
For what it's worth, I do not believe that law enforcement is depending on the confession for court. In fact, I would call Lloyd's words a "statement", or a couple of statements, rather than a "confession". I think law enforcement just took the information that was relevant from it and looked for evidence. Police also know that in order for an actual confession to stand up in court and rule out other suspects or scenarios, more than what has taken place with LLW needs to occur. Also, LLW would certainly have been represented by an attorney if he was going to go on record with a confession.
Something that would bother me is nailing the wrong guy, and allowing the real culprit to go free.
An FBI agent FORGOT to record a confession? The defense attorney must have had a field day with that!
The way the evidence on those cases was handled reminds me a little of the way people were allowed to go in and out of the McStay house before it was declared a crime scene.