Russia Attacks Ukraine - 23 Feb 2022 #3

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RFF 212, the Russian AF plane from Syria has popped up again at 30,000 ft over Sochi, Russia, headed in a northeast course !

Looks like it's now heading east to join the flyway over the Caspian Sea north over Kazakistan and up to Moscow where all the other Moscow-associated air travel is going.
 
What are Russian oligarchs and why do they have targets on their backs? - CNN
March 3 2022 rbbm.
''It's safe to say the sanctions have, at least so far, successfully grabbed the oligarchs' attention''.

''Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, does not have an extradition treaty with the United States, which could boost its appeal as an oligarch haven.''

''Of course, experts say enforcing sanctions on the tycoons won't be swift or simple. Savvy billionaires who built their wealth under an authoritarian government are adept at obscuring their assets through layers of shell companies and cronies.
"If you're a Russian oligarch floating on your yacht in Indian Ocean, most of your money's already going to not be in your own name,
"
said Alison Jimenez, president of litigation consulting firm Dynamic Securities Analytics. "You're going to have the opaque layering of shell corporations with dummy people standing in for you."
That may take some of the punitive bite from the Western sanctions. "You can seize the boat, you can seize the plane, but they have money stashed all over the globe," Jimenez says. "If you manage to capture 75% of it, they're still going to be more wealthy than everyone else in the world."

The teenager that tracked Elon Musk's jet is now tracking Russian oligarchs - CNN
"The aircrafts these oligarchs have are absolutely crazy," Sweeney said. The country's richest are traveling on commercial-sized aircrafts like an Airbus A319 and Boeing 737. "Their planes are huge compared to other jets."
In total, the accounts track more than 40 planes and helicopters linked to Russian oligarchs. He has invited others to help bolster the amount of planes that can be tracked.''

Feb 28 2022 rbbm
Central Bank Sanctions Halt Russia’s Ruble Intervention - BNN Bloomberg
the-headquarters-of-bank-rossii-russia-s-central-bank-in-moscow-russia-on-monday-feb-28-2022-the-bank-of-russia-acted-quickly-to-shield-the-nation-s-1-5-trillion-economy-from-sweeping-sanctions-that-hit-key-banks-pushed-the-ruble-to-a-record-low-and-left-president-vladimir-putin-unable-to-access-much-of-his-war-chest-of-more-than-640-billion.png

''What Our Economists Say:
“Russia is in a financial crisis -- the question is how deep and prolonged it will be. Western sanctions against the country’s central bank proved to be a tipping point, blocking access to reserves that would have been a crucial backstop to the banking sector. Russia faces certain recession.”

''Russia has worked to remove the dollar’s hold over its financial system in recent years -- selling most of its U.S. Treasuries in 2018 -- as it girded for potential sanctions.

Yet Credit Suisse Group AG strategist Zoltan Pozsar reckons the Bank of Russia has $150 billion more held in U.S. dollars than its official numbers suggest. Pozsar parsed data from the central bank and financial markets to calculate the larger share and estimates the Bank of Russia’s dollar exposure is about 50%, compared with the 20% it reports.

Any unreported reserves would be far harder to track and target with sanctions, though it does raise the potential for the U.S. and others to target more accounts -- if they can identify where that money is.

The money trail fades even more when it comes to the central bank’s physical holdings of hard currency. The latest official data showed $152 billion in cash and deposits
. It’s also been buying foreign currency for the National Wellbeing Fund, which forms part of Russia’s reserves. The purchases in the open market were only suspended in late January after the ruble came under pressure.''
 
I wonder if this also applies to the Russian -controlled countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

This was in reference to the above post about Russian airlines failing in 3 weeks

I wouldn't lump Georgia in that group.
Georgia just filed an application to join the EU and voted against Russia in the UN General Assembly vote yesterday. They had to fight their own war of aggression from Russia.
 
I hope many of you had have had the opportunity to read "Red Notice" by Bill Browder. It's the true story about how the Magnitsky Act came to be, and it was all about holding the Russian elites and many oligarchs accountable.
Highly recommended!

(ETA: sounds dry, but it's not!)
 
@Herat
What do you make of this flight? Isn't Volga Dnepr Russian-owned? Headed from Czech Republic to Moscow across EU territory.

VI5969
/VDA5969
Volga-Dnepr Airlines

Brno - Moscow
(currently over Poland)
 
Anyone listened to this?! Is this as new as it says (minutes ago)? I can't say what I think.

Quite the Chatty Cathy he is...he's as low as they come...he needs to be stopped...he needs a day of reckoning like no other...many things to pray for fervently. That's all I can comment without getting a time out.
 
@Herat
What do you make of this flight? Isn't Volga Dnepr Russian-owned? Headed from Czech Republic to Moscow across EU territory.

VI5969
/VDA5969
Volga-Dnepr Airlines

Brno - Moscow
(currently over Poland)

It might have received an exemption like this one:

The flight has an exemption from sanctions, the same aircraft transported fuel to Slovakia on Tuesday.

From Moscow's Domodedovo Airport, the Ilyushin Il-76 took off today at 5 p.m. Central European Time. It flies to the Czech Republic on an exemption from the Ministry of Transport. On board he has fuel from Rosatom for the Dukovany nuclear power plant. Normal air traffic is now banned between the two countries due to sanctions. Shortly after half past eight the plane landed in Brno...


This is practically the same situation as on Tuesday, when a Volga Dnepr Airlines plane flew with the same cargo to Bratislava. "Slovakia is thus securing itself from a possible problem with fuel supplies from Russia," the Slovak Economy Ministry said on Tuesday.

A Russian plane arrived in the Czech Republic despite the sanctions. With fuel for Dukovany - Zdopravy.cz
 
I wonder how they identify which Russian billionaires they target for sanctions. I assume they have some proof/evidence that these individuals are part of the Russian oligarchy, and not just wealthy businessmen/entrpreneurs. It isn't a crime to be wealthy in a capitalist society, so I am assuming they have some evidence that ties these individuals to the Russian government in a way that justifies the sanctions. I haven't seen anything about this online, but am interested in finding out, if anyone has more information on this.
I believe the US must have very credible intelligence reports guiding their decisions on these matters.
 
Russian protestors struggle to understand Ukraine war: 'We didn't choose this' - CNN

(...)

But many Russians, in fact, do not fully know what is happening in Ukraine. State-controlled television shows almost no reports of Russian bombing and shelling in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, instead it focuses on so-called Ukrainian "nationalists" and "neo-fascists."

(...)

But Russian young people like 25-year-old Arina, who lives in Moscow, is not watching TV -- she says she hasn't watched it in seven years. She's on the internet, reading blogs and listening to vloggers. She hasn't taken part in protests yet, but she has seen young people on the street taking part in "silent protests," sticking "No to War" signs on their backpacks or bags.

She, too, is having difficulty comprehending why this war in Ukraine is happening and what it will mean for her own life as a young Russian.

"It is very difficult to predict anything, of course, the situation is horrible," Arina, who asked CNN to only use her first name for her safety said. "Among some of my friends, there is a lot of anxiety about the future, a lot of fear, because we don't know how it will affect us."

But Arina's mother sees it completely differently: "My mom believes everything she sees on TV," Arina says.

"She believes that it was a necessary measure by Putin because there are weapons surrounding the country...there's a threat from the West, which is why Putin is doing this."

Arina says she even checked out a guide on a Russian online magazine for students, Doxa, suggesting how young Russians can talk with their parents and others about the war in Ukraine. "We understand how painful it can be when your parents, friends, colleagues, grandfathers and grandmothers turn into supporters of the war," it reads.

"So we decided to prepare a guide for how to talk about the war with those who justify it. In our guide you'll find answers to 17 of the most widespread arguments spread by propaganda and most often heard in fights," it said.

Arina read it just in time. On February 28, the magazine reported that the Russian government agency supervising communications, IT and mass media demanded Doxa remove the guide from its website.

Arina says she and her mother "had a very fierce argument."

"She just doesn't accept my position and thinks I'm a pro-Westerner, that I don't understand anything. She doesn't believe what I say, I don't believe what she says...We have very different sources of information: I learn everything from the independent media, which have mostly long been blocked in Russia, and she watches TV."

(...)
This shows so starkly how contrasting the views are and why. It's so frustrating to hear this, it must be a thousand times worse for the younger Russian generation trying to enlighten their elders that they're being deprived the truth...by the country they love so much. </3
 
@Herat
What do you make of this flight? Isn't Volga Dnepr Russian-owned? Headed from Czech Republic to Moscow across EU territory.

VI5969
/VDA5969
Volga-Dnepr Airlines

Brno - Moscow
(currently over Poland)

Not sure yet.

Flightaware says the flight is Brno to Turany in Slovakia

Sure looks like it's over Belarus now.
 
Last edited:
I kinda like this post, and I agree:

"Because he's mad - old age has come knocking, rattling his prison bars - telling him he has failed to impress.
Because he had a vision of restoring Imperial Russia - and he thought - for a moment - that he could achieve it.
Because he's a low achieving ex-KGB Operative who failed to impress and couldn't face that failure in the shaving mirror every morning.
Because he got lucky when the wall came down, right place, right time and went on a streak - and now is washed up on the shores of titanic failure because he backed the wrong side.

I don't know. Maybe some of the above - maybe none of it.

And I promise you this - he believes this; he is right and the rest of us are wrong.
That's the definition of a Fanatic - They cover their own doubts with action, devoid of sound judgement - which just happens to make him the most dangerous person alive right now.

It's Joseph Conrad and Heart Of Darkness. Putin's Col. Kurtz. Someone needs to thread their way up river, find the Colonel, infiltrate his people - and, terminate the Colonel's command.

Terminate, with extreme prejudice.
" ( This is the instruction given to Captain Benjamin ( Martin Sheen) in the movie version)

Putin is Col. Kurtz.

Watch Apocalypse Now. This makes more sense than anything I've seen.
 
So how many oligarchs, their mega-yachts, fleets of planes, and their attendants can be packed into a country of 115 sq miles before the champagne runs out?
Right! I believe the travel bans are actually going to hurt the wealthy oligarchs more than the money sanctions and asset seizures. These guys are used to living a life filled with luxury travel. Their potential travel destinations are extremely limited now. Like have fun sailing or jet setting to Iran and North Korea, guys!
 
I hope many of you had have had the opportunity to read "Red Notice" by Bill Browder. It's the true story about how the Magnitsky Act came to be, and it was all about holding the Russian elites and many oligarchs accountable.
Highly recommended!

(ETA: sounds dry, but it's not!)

I was just looking at that on Amazon. I suspect the prices have went up. Paperbacks starting at $20.74.
 
Kelly O'Donnell
@KellyO

President Biden will hold a secure video call with fellow Quad Leaders, Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan, to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific.

Well, the Quad meeting didn't go well. The US, Aus and Japan failed to win India over. India still insists on remaining neutral.

Although all 4 parties did agree on expanded humanitarian and disaster relief measures in the Indo-Pacific region.

Quad meeting fails to unite in condemnation for Russian war in Ukraine
 
Don't know if anyone posted this, but here's an oligarch (not one of the famous ones) who was found 'suicided' at his home 5 days ago. Only hitting the news today.
Mikhail Watford: Ukrainian oligarch's death investigated by Surrey Police

A Ukraine-born oligarch has been found dead at his home in unexplained circumstances, Surrey police have said.

Officers are treating the death of 66-year-old Mikhail Watford, who made his fortune in oil and gas after the demise of the Soviet Union, as unexplained. But they said it was not thought to be suspicious.

o_O
 
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