Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

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Hats said:
Yes of course it could be. I am just more personaly swayed towards a targeted attack due to the type of family business.
Click to expand...
Why do you think it is related to the family business ?
 
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New story released by MSM <modsnip - not an approved source>
 
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The detective also wouldn’t comment on whether police had uncovered links to outlaw motorcycle gangs or the financial standing of the car repairs business owned by the Murphys.

A targeted search by between 20 and 40 personnel will begin on Friday in a fairly small area in Mount Clear, almost seven kilometres from her home, based on intelligence derived from phone data.

It’s not the first time this area has been searched since Ms Murphy’s disappearance but search crews would be looking for smaller items that may tell how she vanished.
SES personnel in the search for Samantha Murphy.

www.aap.com.au

Samantha Murphy unlikely to be found alive, police

Ballarat mother of three Samantha Murphy, who has been missing for three weeks is unlikely to be found alive, police say.
www.aap.com.au www.aap.com.au
 
Hats said:
Many possibilities that could relate to the family business while it could be a very reputable business. Having unwanted approaches from organised crime is one possibility some other posters have suggested.
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But...
what would the criminal world achieve by this ???

Except scandal all over the country and abroad.

Media attention and all kinds of LE focusing on them.

IMO
Criminals don't act emotionally but cunningly.

This crime shows unbalanced and angry mindset.

I mean, what normal person even thinks to do a thing like this? :oops:

JMO
 
Hats said:
Many possibilities that could relate to the family business while it could be a very reputable business. Having unwanted approaches from organised crime is one possibility some other posters have suggested.
Click to expand...
Anything is possible, you would think there would have been other evidence of threats , violence , property damage and why target her ?
statistically more likely to be someone she knows .
 
Dotta said:
But...
what would the criminal world achieve by this ???

Except scandal all over the country and abroad.

Media attention and all kinds of LE focusing on them.

IMO
Criminals don't act emotionally but cunningly.

This crime shows unbalanced and angry mindset.

I mean, what normal person even thinks to do a thing like this? :oops:

JMO
Click to expand...
Australian history on organised crime gangs shows otherwise.
 
To add...

My most recent theory (among many others)
is Samantha being hit by a random car
(driver drunk/drugged???)

So...
Hit and run - and concealment of the victim.

She might be found solely by chance.
If ever :(

Cctv is the key to identify the car.

JMO
 
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technicallymissing said:
bbm, I'm not convinced the police don't have Sam on CCTV, or good reason to believe she might be (not in the forest of course) after Dt. Superintendent Hatt specifically mentioned that they have 12k hours of CCTV to look through. That seems like a huge number that must cover quite a bit of area and potentially time too (ie days after she went missing a damaged car being moved or something). It might mean nothing but it sounded to me like they still think there is a possibility they will find her or someone/thing suspicious on camera somewhere.
Click to expand...

Have we discussed Trail Cams individuals may have placed in the forests?
Perhaps just for fun to watch wildlife?

Just a thought...
 
Bats said:
That's true, but you need to remember that Samantha had the choice to run in any direction when she left her home. If someone was intrinsically planning her abduction, they'd need to cover off many different directions that she may choose to run.

I'm sure there are people out there that know a particular area. That may have thought for years that it would be easy to make someone disappear in the area that they are very familiar with.
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True! But at the dinner party night before, she did discuss that she was going on a run the next day (I haven’t seen this reported, only commented on), which may mean she discussed on that night where that run would be. Which potentially makes those guests present a smaller focus group for police.
 
It's possible that whoever took Sam had been watching her for a while to learn her routine and scope out some likely areas. Especially if they had an accomplice, it wouldn't be that difficult for them to watch her leave on her run and communicate which way she went, giving them an idea of which way she was heading. Perp A positions themselves near her home, watches her leave, calls or texts Perp B to let them know she headed into the forest, Perp B stages themselves at a spot they think she's likely going to end up. If she veers off track and goes in a direction they don't suspect, fair enough, they can try again tomorrow. Do this long enough and eventually they'll be successful.
 
Because no physical evidence has so far been found, im now certain it’s an abduction either random or partially planned and SM taken away.

Dotta said:
Well
I know nothing about these matters as I live faaaar away.
When I think of Australia I see sweet koalas in my mind hahaha

I would focus on theatre crowd she was connected with.
Many artists have inflated egos and are narcissistic types.

JMO
Click to expand...

The theatre crowd she was connected with has really got my brain spinning, I think Dotta is on to something.
 
Hestia's Fire said:
It's possible that whoever took Sam had been watching her for a while to learn her routine and scope out some likely areas. Especially if they had an accomplice, it wouldn't be that difficult for them to watch her leave on her run and communicate which way she went, giving them an idea of which way she was heading. Perp A positions themselves near her home, watches her leave, calls or texts Perp B to let them know she headed into the forest, Perp B stages themselves at a spot they think she's likely going to end up. If she veers off track and goes in a direction they don't suspect, fair enough, they can try again tomorrow. Do this long enough and eventually they'll be successful.
Click to expand...
But how would they know that she started at 7 a.m. on Sunday?
Did they spy on her?
Loitered by her house?
And what would be the motive?

I think IF premeditated,
the perp was single.
And not right in the head - if you know what I mean.

JMO
 
Hestia's Fire said:
It's possible that whoever took Sam had been watching her for a while to learn her routine and scope out some likely areas. Especially if they had an accomplice, it wouldn't be that difficult for them to watch her leave on her run and communicate which way she went, giving them an idea of which way she was heading. Perp A positions themselves near her home, watches her leave, calls or texts Perp B to let them know she headed into the forest, Perp B stages themselves at a spot they think she's likely going to end up. If she veers off track and goes in a direction they don't suspect, fair enough, they can try again tomorrow. Do this long enough and eventually they'll be successful.
Click to expand...
We don’t know that there is 2 perps ?
It could be opportunistic & random , perp is somewhere on the track - he lurks there for the right opportunity to attack someone ?
 
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