Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

[Awakening]

Haven't the police said publicly that they don't believe that there is any risk to the public? Could they declare that if they have any suspicions that this is a random job and that there is some guy preying on joggers? Wouldn't there be some liability legally if another jogger goes missing next week because she thought there was no risk despite what happened to Sam because the police reassured her?

No, there’s no liability.

Police will tell you to always take precautions and be aware of your surroundings.

There are multiple attacks every day, often random but usually one offs. It’s rare to get a serial attacker.

The onus is on the individual to take responsibility for their own safety.

Otherwise police would be in the precarious position of constantly warning the public to the point it would lose all meaning.

Its complicated. Do police tell us about every attack and to avoid the area until it’s solved? Of course not.

Our freedoms would be severely restricted.

It can also lead to victim blaming or just people abusing women for taking a walk “because it’s not safe”.

I was 18 in WA at the time of the Claremont murders and that’s the only time I can remember police warning the public.

But even then we were not told not to go out, but to not walk alone or catch a taxi alone.

 

[SLouTh]

They have said it is suspicious and more than one person involved and missing person most likely dead so it's gone beyond a missing person's case IMO.

BBM
The Missing Person’s Squad in Victoria, has ex homicide detectives, among other experienced detectives working in the squad …

Missing Persons Squad

Victoria Police Missing Persons Squad investigate missing persons who have disappeared under suspicious circumstances.
The squad responds where:

• the body of a deceased person has not been located
• there are unidentified human remains (for more than three days) in a suspected homicide
• the case is long-term (more than 30 days).

To join the squad, you must be a qualified detective and have experience in another detective role.

Specialist roles and areas for police officers

Victoria Police specialist roles, major units, specialised areas, how to apply and your career options after a general duties police officer role.

www.police.vic.gov.au

Homicide may become involved if they find Sam’s body …??

 

[imstilla.grandma]

However, Ms Fraser said there is still hope for the missing mum, as police investigators could very likely hold answers the public is not aware of.

“A month is yes, that's a while, but the police would be doing so much away from the public eye,” she said.

“Do people really think that the police are going to tell them everything?

“Do they really think that we're going to take them inside our investigation, into our little bubble and share all this information?

“That's not how it works.”

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/victoria-police-working-almost-247-away-from-public-eye-to-solve-samantha-murphy-investigation-forces-former-detective-says-as-she-shields-detectives-from-criticism/news-story/64635ab5be9004698af6db304039c7d6

 

[drsleuth]

The telecomms expert in yesterday's ABC article said that it could take a team of 100 people to interrogate all that data and chase down any leads.

It is going to take big resources in people and time.

Former detective warns volunteer searchers may be hurting police investigation into Samantha Murphy

Volunteers have been desperately searching for missing mother Samantha Murphy but their efforts could unfortunately be hampering the police, a former detective tells 7.30.

www.abc.net.au

Yep. We all need to have patience. If they are doing this purely to see who was in the area & not for other reasons, than this is going to be a very long process & I don't expect this case to be solved any time soon IMO

Hopefully I am wrong....

 

[SouthAussie]

BBM
The Missing Person’s Squad in Victoria, has ex homicide detectives, among other experienced detectives working in the squad …

Missing Persons Squad

Victoria Police Missing Persons Squad investigate missing persons who have disappeared under suspicious circumstances.
The squad responds where:

• the body of a deceased person has not been located
• there are unidentified human remains (for more than three days) in a suspected homicide
• the case is long-term (more than 30 days).

To join the squad, you must be a qualified detective and have experience in another detective role.

Specialist roles and areas for police officers

Victoria Police specialist roles, major units, specialised areas, how to apply and your career options after a general duties police officer role.

www.police.vic.gov.au

Homicide may become involved if they find Sam’s body …??

Missing Persons squad ran Karen Ristevski's entire investigation, and arrested and charged Borce.

How the Karen Ristevski case has unfolded so far - 9News

It has been 532 days since Melbourne woman Karen Ristevski went missing – here is how the case h...

www.9news.com.au

 

[Awakening]

100%. The investigation is very well resourced and will be making progress each day. I believe it's just a matter of time before it is solved.

Yes Damian Marrett did say that however it is only a suggestion.

I guess what Hatt said in the presser is open to interpretation. His statement could be taken literally, as in they had no intelligence or evidence at the time to suggest risk to others, the police may genuinely not know what has happened to Samantha. An another alternative is that they believe it was some type of accident.

Or that they don’t know what type of offender they are dealing with.

Even if they have a POI, even if that person is unknown to Samantha, without a psychiatric assessment no one can really know what the persons motivation is or whether they will act again in a month, in a year or never.

 

[OptimusLime]

No, there’s no liability.

Police will tell you to always take precautions and be aware of your surroundings.

There are multiple attacks every day, often random but usually one offs. It’s rare to get a serial attacker.

The onus is on the individual to take responsibility for their own safety.

Otherwise police would be in the precarious position of constantly warning the public to the point it would lose all meaning.

Its complicated. Do police tell us about every attack and to avoid the area until it’s solved? Of course not.

Our freedoms would be severely restricted.

It can also lead to victim blaming or just people abusing women for taking a walk “because it’s not safe”.

I was 18 in WA at the time of the Claremont murders and that’s the only time I can remember police warning the public.

But even then we were not told not to go out, but to not walk alone or catch a taxi alone.

My best friend was in Frankston at the time Paul Denyer was offending, they (police) were door knocking and warned her/ family. She said it was a pretty harrowing time, they lived up the road from him.
It does circle back to onus is on the person. I still sit on fence about Sam's disappearance random vs planned.

 

[Awakening]

But surely if they thought there was a murderer on the loose, they would be asking people to be on guard, jog in pairs etc. I'd be annoyed if they didn't warn me that there was a random murderer on the loose.

But there is very likely a random murderer on the loose?

Police suspect foul play.

It’s up to you to draw your own conclusions from it.

Personally, I always take precautions and be as safe as possible, but I will never not do something because there’s a dangerous person on the loose.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

100%. The investigation is very well resourced and will be making progress each day. I believe it's just a matter of time before it is solved.

Yes Damian Marrett did say that however it is only a suggestion.

I guess what Hatt said in the presser is open to interpretation. His statement could be taken literally, as in they had no intelligence or evidence at the time to suggest risk to others, the police may genuinely not know what has happened to Samantha. An another alternative is that they believe it was some type of accident.

I think the police knew early on what could have happened to Samantha, another reason, they called the main search over fairly quickly as they feel her body has been removed from the area, they had information that one or more parties likely involved in her disappearance

But they have concentrated on 'particular areas' from new intelligence received and are looking for small items, including her watch, signs of a struggle, signs of a vehicle, footprints etc

So they don't seem to be looking for her body here now

 

[ProfCluezo]

Vicpol are flat out by all accounts. As much as we may long for more, these words seem timely:

“Have patience with all things, But, first of all with yourself.”

Saint Francis de Sales

 

[Bats]

Vicpol are flat out by all accounts. As much as we may long for more, these words seem timely:

“Have patience with all things, But, first of all with yourself.”

Saint Francis de Sales

Yes agreed....they are very busy!

From the AFP website....
"In Australia, more than 38,000 missing persons reports are received by police each year. While most people are found within a short period of time, there remain approximately 2,600 long term missing persons; those who have been missing for more than three months. Missing persons’ cases are investigated by State and Territory police."

 

[BGirl88]

I’ve been reading some of the posts lately about “keeping an open mind” so I’ve spent some time thinking about other possible scenarios than planned attack, accident gone wrong or opportunistic random attack. Here’s some of my “open mind thinking”:

- could she have dropped her phone on the run around the Mt Clear area and gone back to look for it / run into someone nefarious.
- she was a lover of missing animals… did she witness someone doing something bad to an animal and stop to have a word with them, which didn’t turn out well
- did she find a local missing animal and followed it into someone else’s property who didn’t want her there.

Gosh, these are just scenarios, no motives, just ideas. When you don’t have a lot to go on, your mind does wander!

 

[Awakening]

This is JMO, but “targeted” doesn’t necessarily mean that the perpetrators knew Samantha or that Samantha knew them.

It could be that they were intent on targeting someone, anyone that day for reasons unknown.

Or they wanted to target a woman. Or specifically a blonde female jogger.

We don’t know yet.

 

[jjleroche]

JMO - I'm not convinced that Sissy's attack was random. She was a former Greens Senate candidate, and an indigenous rights activist. Her politics which may have provoked someone. MOO

https://www..au/sissy-austin-attack/

Further to my post, apologies as the link which I provided did not display correctly. It should be:

First Nations advocate hit with 'rock tied to the end of the stick' in weekend run attack

Sissy Austin, a former member of the First Peoples' Assembly of Victoria has been brutally attacked by a man wielding a makeshift club during a weekend run through a state forest near Ballarat.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Thinker Matt]

I’ve been reading some of the posts lately about “keeping an open mind” so I’ve spent some time thinking about other possible scenarios than planned attack, accident gone wrong or opportunistic random attack. Here’s some of my “open mind thinking”:

- could she have dropped her phone on the run around the Mt Clear area and gone back to look for it / run into someone nefarious.
- she was a lover of missing animals… did she witness someone doing something bad to an animal and stop to have a word with them, which didn’t turn out well
- did she find a local missing animal and followed it into someone else’s property who didn’t want her there.

Gosh, these are just scenarios, no motives, just ideas. When you don’t have a lot to go on, your mind does wander!

I think it seems unlikely that if she were attacked by someone, the someone in question is acting by a chance encounter or just a random response.

The LE having seemingly little to no evidence after a month or so of searching since her disappearance points, imo, to someone who would have been planning to carry out such a thing.

If it were an opportunistic attack, or an accident, I'd be very surprised if the assailant would be so good at clearing up any evidence to the point where it seems SM has just vanished off the face of the Earth without a trace.

 

[SLouTh]

Missing Persons squad ran Karen Ristevski's entire investigation, and arrested and charged Borce.

How the Karen Ristevski case has unfolded so far - 9News

It has been 532 days since Melbourne woman Karen Ristevski went missing – here is how the case h...

www.9news.com.au

I had forgotten how long it actually took to solve that case! A good reminder…


IMO

 

[SLouTh]

If it were an opportunistic attack, or an accident, I'd be very surprised if the assailant would be so good at clearing up any evidence to the point where it seems SM has just vanished off the face of the Earth without a trace.

I tend to agree with you regarding this …. The lack of any evidence … seems to be too “clean of a crime” to be a random attack .

But stranger things have happened …

However, I have wondered how much evidence a large bull bar would leave??? If Sam was hit, scooped up, and the offender drove away???

IMO MOO

 

[KathPlumber]

I spoke to a friend recently (a woman) who was a regular visitor to the Woowookarung Park for the purposes of gathering samples for scientific study. She said she did have an encounter with a man who loitered too long near to her, beyond what was socially reasonable. After asking what she was doing off the trail, he just stood silently watching her for ages and she did not even realise he was still there until she turned back around. At that point she felt panicked but some other people came along, and he left. Later on she looped back along a trail or something (not totally sure of the geography she described) and when he saw her, he seemed to alter his course to come towards her. She pretended to take a phone call loudly and changed her own direction.

I've never believed Samantha's was a stranger attack, but after I heard my friend's story I did wonder... On the other hand, I've had a lot of encounters like this over the years - a LOT. My friend and I agreed that as a woman you often feel so on edge and hyper-vigilant after many actual bad encounters that with the grey area ones like this half the time you don't know if it was a real threat or you imagined something. Does a story like this mean that area might have had a gross guy frequenting it, or do almost all public spaces present the same sort of risk to women and this is just a coincidence? My feeling is the second one.

My friend no longer collects samples in Woowookarung.

imo jmfs (just my friend's story!)

 

[Hats]

This is JMO, but “targeted” doesn’t necessarily mean that the perpetrators knew Samantha or that Samantha knew them.

It could be that they were intent on targeting someone, anyone that day for reasons unknown.

Or they wanted to target a woman. Or specifically a blonde female jogger.

We don’t know yet.

Yes, just the word "targeted" by itself it ambiguous. I would rather categorize the two possible scenarios as either a "Planned Targeted" attack or a "Random Opportunistic" attack.

The example you mentioned I think really still fall under the random opportunistic category as a specific known person was not targeted, and for the person to be known to the perpetrator (either directly known or through a third party orchestrator), it would have had to be panned.

 

[Black-Cat]

I would gather they didn’t collect this kind of vital information early on as Sams disappearance was not viewed as ‘suspicious’ initially ?

I agree police would be manipulating the media now ..but I see no reason for them to lie to the public early on and say nothing was suspicious the first few days..if they really did think it was?

Unfortunately in that frame of mind..so many opportunities would have already be lost.

I just get the sense they dropped the ball the first few days..


There was SO much hesitation / uncertainty when talking about MM in the press conference…
…the way it was mentioned “he’s not a suspect..as this time” gives the indication he may well be later..

..so much more work trying to get evidence..later.

Yes it just doesn't make sense, if you think about the urgency with which it was announced she was missing after a very short time, yet then they said it was not suspicious! IMO