Snipped for focus
The thing is, Grouse, those were things she theoretically had, and we have no idea what anyone Might mean by "everything s/he needed for survival". I'll refer you to the Kate Matrosova case: she also thought that way, and walked her way into catastrophe.
We don't know if ED had her usual equipment with her. It was a 58 L pack. Max. It looks much larger than that on a body (especially a woman), because it has a HUGE empty scoop between the back and the bag, theoretically to keep your back cool (unfortunately, it also makes women tip backwards, which may also be a factor here). Bottom line: this is an average-size overnight pack that is inclined to look big; in actual fact, to me, when ED is wearing it, it doesn't look like a big pack.
So, whoever she met on the trail is very likely to have mis-guessed the actual size of the pack. It would be NORMAL for it to be guessed wrong.
It is not a winter pack, a mountaineering pack, or a pack that will take a lot of weight. It will max out at about 25-28 lbs, but I don't believe ED is carrying even that much weight, including water.
If you'd like, I can write a list of what would typically go in an overnight pack of that size and weight, with the sleeping bag she has, and in winter. I likely would have used a heavier 65L pack for that, but a lightish-weight 58L would probably be enough.
The standard rule of thumb for food per day (we're talking lightweight and packable stuff like Ramen and dried fruit and vedgies, pudding powder, dried milk, maybe some cheese, i.e. nothing fresh because it's heavy) is 2lbs per person per day, plus a couple of extra meals in case you get hung up. That's 6 lbs of food she should have had to keep body and soul together, plus the extra. She would normally by carrying 2L of water; that would be 4lbs plus the slightly-under 1lb weight of the bottle.
The problem with a stove—I know this full well being a tea guzzler and being on the trail for 6 months—fuel is relatively expensive. On a one-night or two-night trip, she could have decided to leave it behind and take cold food. This could mean sandwiches, leftovers, Gorp, overnight oats. On the other hand, if she did the math, she'd likely figure out that it's cheaper—and a whole lot safer in November—to buy the fuel, boil water for drinks and food (e.g. Uncle Ben's rice with veggie bits, which just requires you pour boiling water on it). You can even pour boiling water into a water bottle and hug it to you to stay warm. I'd have taken 1 average-size can and 1 small of fuel on a trip like this, just to guarantee warmth. If I got down to the small can at that time of year, I'd be hustling like crazy to get done with my trip.
She did have high-end light gear, but unlikely suitable for November; she had bought it for summertime Alps on busy trails. I'm freezing just looking at her mattress, for instance: she'd have needed a stuffed mattress in the Refuge to make it predictably safe through the night.
And it's very possible she didn't take the tent, since she was proud of herself for bivouac-ing on her previous trip.
After I saw the weather report, with temperatures substantially below freezing those nights she planned on being out, combined with shortage of funds, flimsy boots, her bivouac photo, and the yoga tights, I have became very concerned about whether this trip could be made safely at all.
This was not my impression at the start.
And she's alone out there.
The lovely bloggers that I've cited above? They are the best-practice indicators of what this trip should look like, and that's in August. Their photos on multiple trips, as well as their specifications for skill level and season, will be very helpful if folks need visuals. You won't need the French to understand what I'm saying.