Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[RickshawFan]

Where packs are designed to sit Randonnée Pic de Saint-Barthélemy (2348m) depuis Moulzoune – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano


Overnight pack on a very experienced guy

Day pack on a woman with belt in correct place. This woman is very experienced: I saw another photo of her hiking.

 

[PeggyHenry]

Just an opinion, but I think her focus might have been leaning towards pushing boundaries rather than safety while solo trekking in the Pyrenees during covid at the end of November.

I think slightly differently ... I think Esther did push boundaries relating to herself.. ie she liked to conquer fears and emotional anxieties but I don’t think this impacted her ability to be aware of the need to remain safe. I say this because I was reading her posts yesterday and I got the impression that she recognised what would pose a physical risk in terms of climbing etc but would push herself to overcome a fear about something such as sleeping alone.
So I really think that Esther was not happy to put herself at risk through attempting daring feats .... but more than happy to conquer her own mental restrictions. Esther is an Oxford graduate, was a personal physical trainer. Maybe mentally fragile at times but physically strong and with a good brain.

 

[PeggyHenry]

There is such silence regarding Esther at the moment .. a deafening silence. I think there is a possibility that the police are on to something which is preventing them from giving anything away.
Otherwise, they are waiting for Spring and better conditions.
reading through the thread it just seems that opinion is veering towards Esther being slightly flaky, almost attention seeking and putting others lives at risk through asking for food. I don’t think that is the real Esther at all. She may have had a troubled mind at times and sought freedom and solace in the mountain environment ... but she is quite probably an astute, kind and thoughtful person. I think that whatever happened was through someone else. There is no trace of her. In my mind an accident is unlikely on that trail and an accident would likely have left some trace of her poles, backpack etc. The dogs found nothing.

 

[Hexe]

Hypothermia leads to people stripping off their clothing because they feel hot. There's no trace of her or any of her equipment or clothing.

It's the last stage of hypothermia when the brain starts dying. At this moment Esther might have been already lost very far off the trail.

 

[The_Investigator]

You know @Cryptic, this is one possibility I continue to mull over in my mind - can't let go of the idea ED got to a road and dissapeared either voluntarily or involuntarily. It could be as simple as the road to Banasque if she aborted her 3 day trek early or simply finished her trek as planned on 11/24, or the road out of the Hospice de France towards Luchon. This would match the MSM summaries of the LE search. But it would only work if ED did not use her phone to update her loved ones, either by choice (being independent) or not (dead battery, no cell service or lost her phone). All it would take is a hitched ride gone bad.

Would that mean she would have meant she was picked up in France or Spain? Less likely in France as it was in lockdown? So if in Spain, there would be more drivers and potentially more dodgy men? And I’ll have to assume it would be a man who abducted her. I don’t like that conclusion, but there is none of her stuff to be found on route, so I keep thinking she had everything with her? Although a grey rucksack would just look like a Boulder from a distance.

 

[The_Investigator]

Snipped for focus

The thing is, Grouse, those were things she theoretically had, and we have no idea what anyone Might mean by "everything s/he needed for survival". I'll refer you to the Kate Matrosova case: she also thought that way, and walked her way into catastrophe.

We don't know if ED had her usual equipment with her. It was a 58 L pack. Max. It looks much larger than that on a body (especially a woman), because it has a HUGE empty scoop between the back and the bag, theoretically to keep your back cool (unfortunately, it also makes women tip backwards, which may also be a factor here). Bottom line: this is an average-size overnight pack that is inclined to look big; in actual fact, to me, when ED is wearing it, it doesn't look like a big pack.

So, whoever she met on the trail is very likely to have mis-guessed the actual size of the pack. It would be NORMAL for it to be guessed wrong.

It is not a winter pack, a mountaineering pack, or a pack that will take a lot of weight. It will max out at about 25-28 lbs, but I don't believe ED is carrying even that much weight, including water.

If you'd like, I can write a list of what would typically go in an overnight pack of that size and weight, with the sleeping bag she has, and in winter. I likely would have used a heavier 65L pack for that, but a lightish-weight 58L would probably be enough.

The standard rule of thumb for food per day (we're talking lightweight and packable stuff like Ramen and dried fruit and vedgies, pudding powder, dried milk, maybe some cheese, i.e. nothing fresh because it's heavy) is 2lbs per person per day, plus a couple of extra meals in case you get hung up. That's 6 lbs of food she should have had to keep body and soul together, plus the extra. She would normally by carrying 2L of water; that would be 4lbs plus the slightly-under 1lb weight of the bottle.

The problem with a stove—I know this full well being a tea guzzler and being on the trail for 6 months—fuel is relatively expensive. On a one-night or two-night trip, she could have decided to leave it behind and take cold food. This could mean sandwiches, leftovers, Gorp, overnight oats. On the other hand, if she did the math, she'd likely figure out that it's cheaper—and a whole lot safer in November—to buy the fuel, boil water for drinks and food (e.g. Uncle Ben's rice with veggie bits, which just requires you pour boiling water on it). You can even pour boiling water into a water bottle and hug it to you to stay warm. I'd have taken 1 average-size can and 1 small of fuel on a trip like this, just to guarantee warmth. If I got down to the small can at that time of year, I'd be hustling like crazy to get done with my trip.

She did have high-end light gear, but unlikely suitable for November; she had bought it for summertime Alps on busy trails. I'm freezing just looking at her mattress, for instance: she'd have needed a stuffed mattress in the Refuge to make it predictably safe through the night.

And it's very possible she didn't take the tent, since she was proud of herself for bivouac-ing on her previous trip.

After I saw the weather report, with temperatures substantially below freezing those nights she planned on being out, combined with shortage of funds, flimsy boots, her bivouac photo, and the yoga tights, I have became very concerned about whether this trip could be made safely at all.
This was not my impression at the start.
And she's alone out there.
The lovely bloggers that I've cited above? They are the best-practice indicators of what this trip should look like, and that's in August. Their photos on multiple trips, as well as their specifications for skill level and season, will be very helpful if folks need visuals. You won't need the French to understand what I'm saying.

Yoga pants? I would only Fell Run in those, but can’t stop for long as I would get to cold, she should have had thermal lined walking trousers shouldn’t she?

 

[The_Investigator]

I think slightly differently ... I think Esther did push boundaries relating to herself.. ie she liked to conquer fears and emotional anxieties but I don’t think this impacted her ability to be aware of the need to remain safe. I say this because I was reading her posts yesterday and I got the impression that she recognised what would pose a physical risk in terms of climbing etc but would push herself to overcome a fear about something such as sleeping alone.
So I really think that Esther was not happy to put herself at risk through attempting daring feats .... but more than happy to conquer her own mental restrictions. Esther is an Oxford graduate, was a personal physical trainer. Maybe mentally fragile at times but physically strong and with a good brain.

Having a degree doesn’t give you common sense. I went to Oxford where there were many childish immature students who can study but can’t cope in a real job, the pressure and decision making etc. She describes herself as a dreamer, and she says she finds decisions difficult, I think DC was the sensible one.

 

[The_Investigator]

Are we going to look into a possible roadside abduction? I think we have investigated her personality and decision making too much. We can’t really predict her behaviour as the social media they portrayed, is just that, a portrayal, not reality, it’s a picture people want to present about themselves and tell a story, Facebook, blog, it’s never the real person, so maybe we could concentrate on the possible roadside abduction. What about local reports of other cases of lone female abductions, attacks? This should be our next step. I know it’s not as sexy as all the hiking talk, but it’s the OTHER big possibility.

 

[Grouse]

Just an opinion, but I think her focus might have been leaning towards pushing boundaries rather than safety while solo trekking in the Pyrenees during covid at the end of November.

Despite my tendency to think she was maybe better prepared than some do, I would tend to agree with that. I commented a while ago about her sharing a refuge with a "new friend", another young lady, and there was a photo of their sleeping bags side by side in front of the fire - that certainly indicates to me a lack of risk aversion and that avoiding covid was not a priority.

 

[Grouse]

Snipped for focus

The thing is, Grouse, those were things she theoretically had, and we have no idea what anyone Might mean by "everything s/he needed for survival". I'll refer you to the Kate Matrosova case: she also thought that way, and walked her way into catastrophe.

RSBM.

Yes some good points, especially about the rucksack size and the possibility she may have gone for cold food.

I think she must have had the tent with her though - the SAR team (accompanied by Dan) wouldn't have been specifically looking for it if it was still in the campervan.

As you say we can only surmise about her exact kit list.

 

[Grouse]

Unless... like the Susan McLean case we've referenced before, and as someone today (?) opined here, do we know if SARS searched off / far off-piste like in the forests in the valley beyond the Refuge de V?

That has to be one of the main possibilities, that she ventured well out of the search area, given the fact that she has completely gone without trace. Or the lakes as I keep banging on about.

Wasn't Susan McLean a suicide, where she had specifically chosen a difficult to find spot?

 

[Grouse]

I'd have "Thanksgiving Dinner" for dinner, a cup of soup made from dried vegetables and herbs from the co-op to get me hydrated. Then, a Ziploc freezer bag with 1 1/2 servings of powdered turkey gravy, dried cranberries, instant mashed potato, frozen peas. Did you calculate the weight? Cost maybe $2. Prolly 8-9 oz including the Ziploc. Pour boiling water on it, right in the bag. Let it set up while you chat. Done. Eat, right out of the bag. No dishes. 1/4 box of

That sounds really good - I like the idea cooking in the ziploc bag and will be checking that out. Someone I have watched on Youtube for ideas on camping/wild camping actually went so far as purchasing a dehydration machine and makes his own meals (things like spag bol) that keep in a bag for years (and taste better than the bought meals).

That's the sort of carb laden comfort food I'd go for. I think Esther and Dan were vegans, not sure what they did for carbs but they did use a stove Login • Instagram

 

[The_Investigator]

That sounds really good - I like the idea cooking in the ziploc bag and will be checking that out. Someone I have watched on Youtube for ideas on camping/wild camping actually went so far as purchasing a dehydration machine and makes his own meals (things like spag bol) that keep in a bag for years (and taste better than the bought meals).

That's the sort of carb laden comfort food I'd go for. I think Esther and Dan were vegans, not sure what they did for carbs but they did use a stove Login • Instagram

They had a dehydrator in the houses that they lived in between trips and made their own dried food. Apparently according to their blog, they did so many that the camper van was stuffed full of powdered packets for various meals. Perhaps she made a whole lot at the farm house and took hem with her, don’t see why not. They have the time, both not working and a big farmhouse kitchen like that. Dehydrators are big, but they had juicers, blenders and that shipped over I think, as they were back and forth to the UK. As an aside, does anyone know why they left the dogs in the UK even after they returned from the long summer adventure?

 

[Cryptic]

All it would take is a hitched ride gone bad.

Though I still think the paved road and hitchhike encounter with a criminal is worth pursuing ( I wonder how far off the mountain must one go before coming to a paved road?), Rickshaw's and Tanzanite's descriptions of hypothermia are well, chilling.

Tanzanite related that how close he or she came to hypothermia while being properly dressed, yet cold and wet. Then factor in that he /she was physically fit, rested, and well nourished. Likewise, there does not always seem to be warm feelings and undressing. Tanzanite described confusion and an urge to fall asleep.

In short, I think the paved road and hitchhiking gone bad scenario would be more likely if the fact pattern was:

- "Cindy", a rested and well nourished amateur cycling athlete takes a risk regarding clothing and equipment during a late start hike to the top of a mountain.

- Assuming Cindy did not fall victim to fast moving hypothermia (Tanzanite's close experience ) and no evidence of a mountain fall, the cold was not going to be fatal over a night or two for her, especially at lower elevations.

- Cindy has the endurance / strength to power through partial hypothermia, the cold, and growing exhaustion to walk out to a paved road- even if lost and taking inefficient routes.

But Esther's physical state could have been very different: No exceptional fitness, long term nutrition deficit (possibly "running on empty" calorie wise), prior fatigue etc. This could make her vulnerable to fast moving hypothermia, building hypothermia, exhaustion and the cold and make it likely she did not make it to a paved road.

 

[Hexe]

That has to be one of the main possibilities, that she ventured well out of the search area, given the fact that she has completely gone without trace. Or the lakes as I keep banging on about.

I went for a short hike today, not in the mountains but near a lake. I was wearing good hiking boots, yet one stone, glazed with thin layer of ice, was enough to nearly send me into the water. You don't need much for an accident and if Esther fell into the lake, then even if she got out, she was soaking wet with icy cold water in chilly surroundings. Souns like a good recipe for hypothermia, don't you think?

 

[sundaaaay]

The hitchhike gone wrong theory is somewhat plausible to me because ED seems to approach random people without hesitation. we know she asked people for food and we know she was known to hitchhike (as she did a few days prior). We also know that the trails and roads were very quiet in the morning because of the lockdown in France.

 

[The_Investigator]

It wouldn’t be someone passing though then, it would be someone local to that French side of the area, don’t they need a pass to travel? So someone who is a key worker? That would narrow it down.

 

[sundaaaay]

It would most likely be along the D125 road connecting to the L’hospice de France. ED would have stayed in the refuge and been offered a lift somewhere along the D125 road early the next morning.

It could be a key worker such as policeman or ranger, someone who works at the hospice de France accommodation, or even a local who frequents that area for an early morning walk and took advantage of a lone female in a deserted area.

 

[RickshawFan]

I think slightly differently ... I think Esther did push boundaries relating to herself.. ie she liked to conquer fears and emotional anxieties but I don’t think this impacted her ability to be aware of the need to remain safe. I say this because I was reading her posts yesterday and I got the impression that she recognised what would pose a physical risk in terms of climbing etc but would push herself to overcome a fear about something such as sleeping alone.

Snipped for focus

Actually, sleeping alone would be extremely unsafe in these conditions, as would bivouac-ing with the (lack of) experience and equipment she had. All that is clear from photos. These are forces of nature we're dealing with here; they are physical limitations of being human. For all of us. Nature has ZERO respect for humans out to "push their comfort zones".
The odds of getting hypothermia on this trip were astronomical, especially if she slept a night out, which to do the loop, after a late climb to the Pic, you'd have had to. You'd have one of two scenarios:

Scenario #1, 2 nights for the loop. You climb the Pic in late afternoon, the sun's getting low, and you stop at the Refuge. You kept yourself warm enough, and you set out the next day. There's no other indoors the entire loop because the Hospice is closed. So, you HAVE to spend the 2nd night exposed; you can't make it back to town by nightfall, and the last half of the loop is super-steep.

Scenario #2, 1 night for the loop. You climb the Pic in late afternoon, the sun's getting low. You skip the Refuge and overnight, no shelter, somewhere on the trail partway along the loop.

There is a Scenario #3, 2 nights that would not be do-able for ED, and there are few hours of daylight in November. If you don't have enough experience and the right kind, it's not safe. You climb the Pic in late afternoon, the sun's getting low, and you stop at the Refuge. Get everything sorted for the morning, all the water you'll need. Get up at the crack of dawn, and BOOK the whole loop (approx 8 hours) and return to the Refuge at dusk for another night. Hike out the next day.
In the summer, this would be very do-able for a "slack pack": leave your big backpack at the Refuge, and travel light (though still with your 10 essentials) with a day pack. A fit person can scamper it. In November, on the other hand, you'd have to take your whole big pack to stay protected enough, so you'd be weighed down, and the second half of the loop is all uphill. Not happening.

I will refer again to my lovely French bloggers cited ^^^. That's what experience, "properly equipped", and safety protocols look like in the mountains. They do not go "beyond their comfort zone". They take all these precautions as a matter of course, because they understand the context. I recommend using them as a touchstone for what one can expect in a safe outing.

The other thing I like about these guys is that they share their savoir faire with lesser-experienced hikers. You can see them take out groups; and you can also see how disciplined the groups are.

That being said, we still have a missing hiker. IMO, she's succumbed to hypothermia (which was almost inevitable on the trip that was planned) and/or she had an accident. I'm not sure we could suss out a location. Perhaps post-COVID when the mountains again become flooded with hikers, we'll have some answers.

 

[RickshawFan]

It would most likely be along the D125 road connecting to the L’hospice de France. ED would have stayed in the refuge and been offered a lift somewhere along the D125 road early the next morning.

It could be a key worker such as policeman or ranger, someone who works at the hospice de France accommodation, or even a local who frequents that area for an early morning walk and took advantage of a lone female in a deserted area.

My read is that D125 is a double-track and not an actual in-use road. D125W would be single-track. I don't know for sure, but I'm judging from photos in the French guy's blog.

Maybe there'd be a walker there, but we also don't know whether there are barricades, since France is in lockdown.