I posted the following piece of speculation yesterday evening but it kind of got swamped by a blizzard of other posts. I think it is interesting to stand back and see if we can trace the true "daisy chain" of information that led to the remains discovery, whether it be LP's theory or some other theory.
What follows is my theory - updated since I posted last night.
What we know is Kiomarie was interviewed at nearly 10PM on July 19. Kio grew up on Hopespring drive and her dad still lives there. Kio has a friend named Bailey who also lives on Hopespring very close to the Anthony's. Bailey had already spoken to Brian B. and learned he had spoken to LE about the shovel. So Kio and Brian get to talking about KC, and when Kio heard about the shovel, she starts thinking about the secret hiding area off Suburban. Bailey calls Brian and gets the detective's phone number, gives it to Kio, and Kio calls the detective. :clap:
Neighbors are obviously talking. It probably does not take long for word to spread about Kio's interview and suspicions about the woods off Suburban. Maybe neighbors kind of are convinced that the area is a high-probability area, but are afraid to spend a lot of time searching themselves because 1) they are neighbors and 2) they figure LE will be able to do it. :waitasec:
So LE does an initial search of the
accessible areas (some of it was too wet), and they come up
empty. TES comes out and searches same area -
no luck. Problem is - as we know today -
the body was not quite in the spot Kio had pointed out. In fact it was several hundred yards away, up the street close to Hopespring. :bang:
Neighbors though remain convinced that area is a highly probable area. They know of Kio's story. They know of the shovel. They know TES and LE could not get into all areas. They are unconvinced the unsuccessful searches to date have ruled out the area. :snooty:
Now throw into the mix speculation that the MR's supervisor is also a neighbor of the Anthony's. Since neighbor's are talking and still think the body could be found up there,
the supervisor speaks to his good buddy the MR and asks him to take a look when he does his route. He may even have
assigned him specifically to do that route in August just because he is trusted. An official utility vehicle parked up in that area would not look suspicious. :angel:
So the MR takes a look and finds a suspicious-looking bag. We know he called it in three times, and the bag was not located:
- LE first says they searched and cleared the area (as noted above, they cleared an area several hundred yards away).
- They go out again (possibly with a dog) and find nothing. Unknown exactly were this was done, but probably still a hundred yards or so away. If one listens to the MR 911 calls, the location description is vague enough to allow LE to miss the spot.
- They go out a third and final time. MR points to the area and LE heads back, sees a big rattlesnake, and decides it might be best to come back later. Oh, and by the way, there is loads of garbage back there.
Fay comes in, floods the area, and no searches can be done until early November. Note that rumor has it
Kronk was not on that route in Sept., Oct., or Nov., implying to me someone assigned to him that route to check things out.
This next bit of speculation is going to infuriate a lot of Lee haters here when they read what I am thinking. :scream: (I think Lee is getting a bum rap from the public).
Meantime, Lee, I believe, is not drinking the KC Koolaide the way Cindy is. He
knows KC did something. He does not know the details, but has suspicions, and does his best to pull information from KC without raising her ire and having her shut him out. He
loved Caylee and wants to know the truth. He gets enough KC code to believe her body is nearby, but again no details. :detective:
Lee becomes aware of Kio's and the neighbor's suspicions. With what KC implied, the general location makes perfect sense. He knows LE and TES searched in that area but maybe they were not in the right spot.
Maybe he is involved in lining up other silent searches, including that of the MR, or maybe he just hears about the MR's finding and subsequent failure of LE to locate the body. On the one hand he knows LE and others have searched and declared it clear -
should trust that coming from LE, right?? On the other hand, the MR did say he found
something. After Fay, this gets filed in the back of his mind.
Meanwhile, Lee loves his mom but feels she is in a deep denial over KC's crime. He knows - feels - KC did
something to Caylee. While mom is stuck in the first stage of grief (denial), Lee is entering the second stage (anger). It shows as he tries to protect the parents he loves, and the public backlash is vicious.
He starts to drop from public view. He does not want to get caught up in the maelstrom Cindy is creating.
In early Nov. TES finally can get out and do a search. But they find
nothing and
pull out earlier than expected.
Bewildered, Lee talks to the PI working for his parents. I speculate the conversation went something like this:
Lee convinces PI Casey that Caylee is dead and they need to look for a body. So the two PIs hike up there two times to look and video-tape, and PI Casey goes up another two times alone. The information they have is that Caylee's body was found in August, but not recovered. They find nothing. PI Casey calls Lee several times and asks if he can help nail the exact spot down, because they are not seeing anything but thick brush and unrelated trash. Given only 10 minutes of video were recorded, none of the searches may have been very long.
They are very close, but not quite in the right spot, and they fail to locate the remains.
They report back to Lee: nothing. :banghead:
Nejame catches wind that Lee sent the PIs up there and he decides he has had enough. Time to bail out. It appears the Anthony's privately think the child is dead but publicly berate LE for not searching for a live Caylee. Well, Lee believes she is dead, and probably George does too, but Cindy won't admit it. He's had enough and resigns. :furious:
At this point Lee is thinking: LE looked several times. TES looked several times. My PI looked several times. No one could find the bag. The only one who ever saw the bag was the MR. In order to put this thing to rest,
we need him to look one more time.
Lee gets word back to the supervisor neighbor and tells him the PI's could find nothing. Can we get the MR back out there? So the supervisor reasigns the MR to the route and asks him to see if the bag is still there. The route is scheduled for the 11th of every month, so they have missed the November slot, but he'll be assigned to the route on Dec. 11.
The MR goes back on the route, finds the bag, sees the skull...and Caylee is brought home. :blowkiss:
Now one of the PIs brags to his good buddy LP about the trips they made to that same area and found nothing, and the circus begins again.
The key piece of the above puzzle is confirming or denying a link between the neighbors and the MR. The "supervisor as neighbor" is one possible link. Another possible link is "MR chats up neighbor". But a link needs to exist for the above theory to make sense.
The daisy chain, as I see it, is:
- Kio - Bailey - Brian B. - Kio - detective - TES. Failure to find the remains starts a second chain.
- Lee - neighbors - supervisor - MR - LE. Failure to find the remains starts a third chain.
- TES. Failure to find the remains starts a fourth chain.
- Lee - PI - Lee - supervisor - MR. Success.
IMHO
