Given the little bit more we know about the cell phone being turned off and Ron calling Tommy; there is one more theory, believe it or not!
If Misty put the kids down, had a fight with Ron at 8:30, then turned her cell off and went out, that leaves an opportunity for someone to come in and take Haleigh. But they have to know she is alone. It is reported now that Ron called Tommy and Tommy called Timmy to try and get a hold of Misty.
Logic tells me,one or more of them may have gone over to check on the kids. We know Cousin Joe was also staying with one of them. So Misty is gone, Ron's at work, Timmy, Tommy and maybe Joe know the kids are alone. Misty is deceptive 42% because she doesn't know who took Haleigh, maybe she doesn't. She is pointing in that direction because she knows they were called and knew the kids were alone. She may have come home at 3:00 and it took a few minutes to realize Haleigh was gone. The house could have a kitchen light on, the door brick and she is stunned. She checks on Jr, and Haleigh and realizes she is gone. She turns on her phone, calls Timmy telling him what she has found and is freaking out. She then tries Ron but he is pulling in the driveway, not realizing she just got home.
Now, there are things that still don't add up for me with Ron, but leaving him out of it, do we know if any of the Croslins went to check on the kids? Did somebody back track to the MH without another person knowing it? Did that person do something bad to Haleigh and stage the MH? Now they all have to keep quiet because it places them in the MH with Haleigh alone that night. If the person knew what they were about to do they could gone back, using the excuse they were going to hunt for Misty before Ron got home and instead went back to harm Haleigh. They had two vans at their disposal that night, so they could have split up. Tommy and Joe in one, Timmy in the other. This could explain why she failed the poly. What she is holding back is she wasn't there.