Found Safe TN - Mary Catherine Elizabeth Thomas, 15, Maury County, 13 March 2017 #11

[Kensie]

I thought they looked just fine in the Walmart video. Look like most customers I see in Walmart. I did not see anything bizarre that jumped out at me. Also, why the heck go to OKC if you are planning on a trip South? Why not head down through MS, LA, etc. Why drive west to OK to go South??? Maybe to confuse LE.

I hope the young lady is found very soon and is safe .

 

[Kapua]

I thought they looked just fine in the Walmart video. Look like most customers I see in Walmart. I did not see anything bizarre that jumped out at me. Also, why the heck go to OKC if you are planning on a trip South? Why not head down through MS, LA, etc. Why drive west to OK to go South??? Maybe to confuse LE.

I hope the young lady is found very soon and is safe .

I think they are headed west, but my second best guess is south. :cow:

They got the jump on LE and really don't need to work at confusing them. They just need to avoid them. I don't get the sense that people outside of the southeastern US are looking for these two or even aware that they are missing. They may be gone for a l o n g time.

 

[Doghairrules]

I think they are headed west, but my second best guess is south. :cow:

They got the jump on LE and really don't need to work at confusing them. They just need to avoid them. I don't get the sense that people outside of the southeastern US are looking for these two or even aware that they are missing. They may be gone for a l o n g time.

That may be true, but there have been false sightings outside of the southeast, so there are at l at some people on the lookout for them.


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[4SAM]

Maybe we will get lucky and he needs to take the Rogue in to be serviced somewhere and they recognze him and call LE.....wishful thinking I know

 

[Kapua]

Maybe we will get lucky and he needs to take the Rogue in to be serviced somewhere and they recognze him and call LE.....wishful thinking I know

HA! He'll need an oil change sooner or later.

 

[MsMtOlympus]

The Mexico Theory

I keep returning to this. Made a pro/con list for myself to work out thoughts on the matter...

PRO

There are 48 official border crossings from the US to Mexico and TC may have researched the easiest ones to drive through (people on this forum have confirmed sailing right through depending on the checkpoint) as well as which ones had surveillance cameras.

TC only wants to go one way - the known complications of returning north to the US without rock solid ID are irrelevant to him.

Although the FBI has asked Mexico to be on the lookout, their LE is no doubt under-resourced and overwhelmed by the ongoing drug war. Unfortunately, TC and ET are not the news of the day or the priority in Mexico. TC had to have known this ahead of time and wanted to exploit this weak spot. I mean, let's face it, the average Mexican citizen is not on heightened alert for TC and ET.

We know he's been to Mexico (and Panama) before so it isn't a huge culture shock for TC. He also presumably speaks enough Spanish to have served missions there in the past (so perfunctory at minimum).

US dollar lasts longer there.

Can eventually pose as missionary (I have doubts as to how easy this though - some people on this forum have mentioned that you can't just show up to some random village and announce that you're a missionary and that's that).


CON

March 15 sighting in OKC puts them at the border no sooner than March 16 when he's already at fugitive status and the heat was very much on. If he pulled this off, it would have had to have been in an alternate vehicle (not Rogue).

There is always a chance that papers could be asked for, even at known "easy" crossings. Did TC have a backup plan for this scenario? Fake ID's? They are expensive, perhaps prohibitively so, as has previously been pointed out.

Eventually one or both will have to work to survive. How will this happen with limited Spanish? And speaking of the presumed limited Spanish, it can't possibly be good enough to communicate in the more rural regions (i.e. the most likely type of area TC would settle in).

Thoughts?

 

[Mom24]

HA! He'll need an oil change sooner or later.

And tires give out.

 

[KKearns]

Good point. Do we know that it didn't?


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We don't know if it pinged all the way to Decatur or of Decatur was the one and only ping.

I've only seem ET's phone mentioned pinging.

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[KKearns]

Does anyone else think a third party might be providing a place to live?

Yes



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[JerseyGirl]

Her father spoke today:

"Elizabeth, that man may be telling you that nobody is looking for you or he may even be telling you that nobody wants you home. Don't listen to that," Anthony Thomas said to his daughter in the video. "Everything he said to all the kids, not just to you, has been a lie."

http://www.tennessean.com/story/new...-her-return-columbia-tree-planting/100017670/
http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2017/04/amber_alert_elizabeth_thomas_t_3.html

 

[msphilosopher]

Been a little MIA, trying to catch up.

Any thing of much significance new?

Thaaanks

 

[KKearns]

I don't think they were worried about going in Walmart. That was less than 24 hours after the AA went out. I got the alert at 8:09 pm on the 14th, which was approximately 36 hours after they disappeared.

No one would be looking for them in OKC on the 15th. They were way ahead of the alert.

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[JerseyGirl]

Her father spoke today:

"Elizabeth, that man may be telling you that nobody is looking for you or he may even be telling you that nobody wants you home. Don't listen to that. Everything he said to all the kids, not just to you, has been a lie."

http://www.tennessean.com/story/new...-her-return-columbia-tree-planting/100017670/

To Tad:

"Tad Cummins I know you're keeping up with all this and you're filtering, you're not letting her see how much people out here love her... It would make better sense for you to turn yourself in to law enforcement. If you turn yourself in there are laws that will guarantee your general safety."

 

[Kapua]

The Mexico Theory

I keep returning to this. Made a pro/con list for myself to work out thoughts on the matter...

PRO

There are 48 official border crossings from the US to Mexico and TC may have researched the easiest ones to drive through (people on this forum have confirmed sailing right through depending on the checkpoint) as well as which ones had surveillance cameras.

TC only wants to go one way - the known complications of returning north to the US without rock solid ID are irrelevant to him.

Although the FBI has asked Mexico to be on the lookout, their LE is no doubt under-resourced and overwhelmed by the ongoing drug war. Unfortunately, TC and ET are not the news of the day or the priority in Mexico. TC had to have known this ahead of time and wanted to exploit this weak spot. I mean, let's face it, the average Mexican citizen is not on heightened alert for TC and ET.

We know he's been to Mexico (and Panama) before so it isn't a huge culture shock for TC. He also presumably speaks enough Spanish to have served missions there in the past (so perfunctory at minimum).

US dollar lasts longer there.

Can eventually pose as missionary (I have doubts as to how easy this though - some people on this forum have mentioned that you can't just show up to some random village and announce that you're a missionary and that's that).


CON

March 15 sighting in OKC puts them at the border no sooner than March 16 when he's already at fugitive status and the heat was very much on. If he pulled this off, it would have had to have been in an alternate vehicle (not Rogue).

There is always a chance that papers could be asked for, even at known "easy" crossings. Did TC have a backup plan for this scenario? Fake ID's? They are expensive, perhaps prohibitively so, as has previously been pointed out.

Eventually one or both will have to work to survive. How will this happen with limited Spanish? And speaking of the presumed limited Spanish, it can't possibly be good enough to communicate in the more rural regions (i.e. the most likely type of area TC would settle in).

Thoughts?

I am not ruling it out.

And I hesitate to post this, but this needs to be said.

Mexico can be dangerous, particularly for a gringo with lots of cash, a relatively new vehicle, and a pretty young girl with him.

 

[KKearns]

O/T heard there is a tornado watch in TN? Stay safe Tennessee people.

TN and AL and GA have a very, very dangerous situation brewing on that front.

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[JerseyGirl]

Since their disappearance, the TBI has received more than 1,300 tips from nearly every state across the country.

http://wkrn.com/2017/04/05/father-has-strong-message-for-both-elizabeth-thomas-tad-cummins/

 

[Kapua]

Since their disappearance, the TBI has received more than 1,300 tips from nearly every state across the country.

http://wkrn.com/2017/04/05/father-has-strong-message-for-both-elizabeth-thomas-tad-cummins/

Thank you, this is so good to hear! I am so glad that people all over the country are looking.

 

[DatelineFan]

Her father spoke today:

"Elizabeth, that man may be telling you that nobody is looking for you or he may even be telling you that nobody wants you home. Don't listen to that. Everything he said to all the kids, not just to you, has been a lie."

http://www.tennessean.com/story/new...-her-return-columbia-tree-planting/100017670/

To Tad:

"Tad Cummins I know you're keeping up with all this and you're filtering, you're not letting her see how much people out here love her... It would make better sense for you to turn yourself in to law enforcement. If you turn yourself in there are laws that will guarantee your general safety."

I'm sure Mr. Thomas is thinking that Tad better hope LE gets to him before he does! THAT'S for his general safety!

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[Kapua]

One other thing about Mexico. A friend of mine went down to Baja California to get married last month. With him were a small group of family and friends; less than 40 people total. All but two of them got sick with Zika virus.

 

[MsMtOlympus]

Been a little MIA, trying to catch up.

Any thing of much significance new?

Thaaanks

Other than some thread drama, no. There is no new significant news.