Found Deceased TN - Noah Chamberlin, 2, Pinson, 14 Jan 2016 - #1

[HBOKim]

I guess there is a possibility that Noah was taken out of the woods by someone but I think it's probably a very small possibility. I think that Noah probably fell into either a sinkhole or one of the holes made by uprooted trees on the first day he went missing. Maybe he was even injured when he fell but after 3 days it's a certainty that he is tired, hungry, dehydrated and very weak. Unfortunately, I think if he is still alive it's because of a miracle or an answer to the families' prayers. If he is conscious or (sorry to even type this) dead and he's covered by leaves it may take a while to find Noah. I wonder if LE will eventually try cadaver dogs to find his little body?

Even though I really feel like Noah won't be found alive, I'm going to continue to pray for a miracle

That has been my line of thinking too. If Noah really disappeared that fast as the grandmother reports, He must have fallen in a hole of some type. Maybe one with water covering it at this time.

 

[Ontario Mom]

With all of the information local LE has at their disposal, I don't believe for a moment they'd spend this much energy, welcoming this many volunteers and working as hard as they are, if THEY didn't believe he was right there in those woods. Somewhere. It is entirely possible searchers have walked right past him, especially if he's no longer with us and/or unable to cry out, and concealed in some way (hole, hollow log, under a bush, etc.).

 

[passionflower]

Praying for all right now, dear Noah, family, friends, searchers, LE and everyone helping. This is the worse nightmare for them to endure!

 

[Elainera]

Bethany Thompson ‏@WBBJ7Bethany now4 minutes ago Tennessee, USA

UPDATE: Tom Mapes says they searched sex offender registry in the area thoroughly on Thursday #findNoah.

 

[JudyBolton]

It truly is heartening to see all those volunteers lined up to go out into the dark, into 18-degree temps. to search for a little boy that 90% of them may not know! We can't search but we all can pray - I wish he had a dog with him that could keep him warm!

 

[MsMarple]

Tyler Whetstone ‏@tyler_whetstone 13m13 minutes ago Pinson, TN
First day, sec offenders list was checked. 3 hits within 2 miles and they were checked.Twice.

Tyler Whetstone ‏@tyler_whetstone 13m13 minutes ago Pinson, TN
This is new news. Rumors have been rampant

 

[watcher9]

I wonder if the searches always start out from the point last seen instead of from the home itself, leaving that area in between unsearched.

 

[4senthia]

Since they did check the RSO's I guess LE considers Noah having been taken a possibility, just my opinion.
I realize he's probably out in the night, but we don't have an answer on DeOrr either.
jmo

 

[cluciano63]

Jmo LE has to at least consider an abduction, since he has not been found. But it seems very unlikely to me, unless he was missing initially a lot longer than reported. Just too wild for me to imagine a predator just happened to be there when the child toddled away.

 

[MsMarple]

Victor Williams ‏@WBBJ7Victor 14m14 minutes ago
Tom mapes of the Madison County Sheriff's department confirms that volunteers will continue to search until dawn. #FindNoah

 

[Ontario Mom]

Since they did check the RSO's I guess LE considers Noah having been taken a possibility, just my opinion.
I realize he's probably out in the night, but we don't have an answer on DeOrr either.
jmo

I would suggest it was brought up right away and they wanted to rule that out - just to be certain. In almost any investigation, pretty much everything is a possibility until it's ruled out, and it looks like that happened in this case on the first day.

 

[Sweetgrits]

For those of you have seen many searches for missing children, how long do you think the search will continue? I know it can't continue indefinitely but at what point does LE stop? At some point will the search go to recovery and then how long will they search in this recovery mode? How terrible it would be for the family knowing their baby is out there, so close but they can't bring him home?

 

[MsMarple]

I would suggest it was brought up right away and they wanted to rule that out - just to be certain. In almost any investigation, pretty much everything is a possibility until it's ruled out, and it looks like that happened in this case on the first day.

I agree Mom. I'm sure a lot went on in the investigation that LE didn't share. What would be the point anyway - without a lead or a suspect then it would just fan the rumor flames in the community and right now the priority is finding Noah.

 

[Khughey]

It depends on the local jurisdiction having control. There is added pressure to push harder for a longer period when children are involved. Those things aside, the incident commander should continue to deploy resources until all areas of interest have been searched to a predetermined probability of detection (POD). You will never have 100% POD, but my guess is they would want 90% POD. You achieve the higher POD's by searching the area multiple times, normally with multiple teams and/or resource types. For example air scent dogs can cover a larger area with a higher POD in a single pass.

Other clues or things that might come up on the criminal side (ideally you would have a team looking at that from day 1, in addition to the group doing the traditional lost person search), could cause the search to change direction. A search should never be called off, but instead it's greatly scaled back.

 

[Khughey]

I would suggest it was brought up right away and they wanted to rule that out - just to be certain. In almost any investigation, pretty much everything is a possibility until it's ruled out, and it looks like that happened in this case on the first day.

One of the dangers in any search is scenario lock. The last thing you want is to put ALL your resources on a single track and exclude the possibility that something else may be at play. Early on in a search (after initial hasty search/reflex tasking) the commanders should employ one of several systematic methods of determining probability of area (POA), or in laymen;s term...what areas should we focus on.

A over simplified version consists of gathering some key players (LEO, locals familiar with the area, SAR team leaders) and having them brainstorm possibilities.....for example...
1. Wandered along the trail.
2. Wandered off trail.
3. Encountered a stranger and was abducted.
4. Taken by a friend / family.
5. Found the local pond, and fell in.
6. Abducted by aliens.

You get the idea. Once this "initial" list is tabulated, all the key players go thru a process of assigning percentages to each possibility. This process of voting is also performed on the segments that are created on the map, of the search area. Ultimately you have the initial high probability areas to focus on. As new clues arise, and areas are searched, the focus will change on what areas have next highest priority. It is part science and part art.

 

[MsMarple]

It depends on the local jurisdiction having control. There is added pressure to push harder for a longer period when children are involved. Those things aside, the incident commander should continue to deploy resources until all areas of interest have been searched to a predetermined probability of detection (POD). You will never have 100% POD, but my guess is they would want 90% POD. You achieve the higher POD's by searching the area multiple times, normally with multiple teams and/or resource types. For example air scent dogs can cover a larger area with a higher POD in a single pass.

Other clues or things that might come up on the criminal side (ideally you would have a team looking at that from day 1, in addition to the group doing the traditional lost person search), could cause the search to change direction. A search should never be called off, but instead it's greatly scaled back.

Hey, Khughey, you seem to know about searches. Yesterday the sheriff said they had been doing grid searches and were starting "cross gridding." Do you know what that means?

 

[drjones]

Hey, Khughey, you seem to know about searches. Yesterday the sheriff said they had been doing grid searches and were starting "cross gridding." Do you know what that means?

to go over the grid in the perpendicular direction - ie if you went east/west then the next time you go north/south

 

[badaskcj]

For those of you concerned why Noah's scent has not been picked up by the dogs. I live close to where he went missing and It rained the night that Noah went missing. I would think that would likely prevent the dogs from picking up his scent. Still praying that he will be found soon, it is going down to 16 degrees here tonight 😢

 

[passionflower]

Jmo LE has to at least consider an abduction, since he has not been found. But it seems very unlikely to me, unless he was missing initially a lot longer than reported. Just too wild for me to imagine a predator just happened to be there when the child toddled away.

BBM or an accident?

 

[True North]

We are quite far away, but, we had warm weather Thursday. It's progressively gotten worse. WE're having a blizzard now and all I can think about is how it's gotten colder in TN too. That baby should not be out there. I can't imagine his mama's anguish. I'm praying for a miracle!