TX - Terri 'Missy' Bevers,45, murdered in church/person in SWAT gear,18 Apr 2016 #29

[GA_Peach]

But people can come up with any number of excuses to distance themselves from a targeted murder victim. "Oh, there was an affair in that marriage." "Oh, so-and-so spent way too much time away from home and it opened a door for this to happen."

By the way, the link below speaks to trends in murders committed by strangers or unknown circumstances. Such murders represented only 5% of all murders in 1965; by 2001, 57% of all murders were committed by someone with no known connection to the victim.

http://www.angelfire.com/sc3/cjrp/epidemic.html



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Thank you so much for sharing this information. It's interesting to see how stranger killings have been on the rise. However, based on the article, I don't think that MB's murder would be considered a stranger killing. A stranger killing is one where no motive can be found. While we may disagree on the motive (interrupted burglary, personal vendetta, et al), it seems that the killer definitely had one. MOO

"The cause for this new all time low clearance rate is the rise of stranger killing, meaning the offender is unknown to the victim and no motive or connection can be found." BBM

Here is a link to an article written by and for the LE community. Great points about confirmation bias, tunnel vision, following the evidence instead of the suspect, etc

http://www.policechiefmagazine.org/...=display_arch&article_id=1922&issue_id=102009


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I love this article, and I appreciate the talk of bias, tunnel vision, and heuristics. I am going to reread it in the morning when I am better rested and may have more comments then. It's interesting to note that the evidence itself isn't biased. It's only our interpretation of the evidence and facts that are biased. I think that is an important distinction to remember as we move forward in this case.

thank you Cannonball - I read the article with interest. Here is one you might want to read as well.

http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fvs03.pdf

So true.

I find it kind of ironic that people are quoting and referencing homicide statistics in discussing this murder. There is nothing about Missy's murder that fits within the norms. So why should anyone expect statistics to point in the right direction in trying to identify who the murderer could be?

ETA: Think about it. When stats say 9 out of 10 blah, blah, blah, that leaves 1out of 10 that doesn't fit. Now consider the possibility that Missy's case is just what it appears to be -- completely out of the norm.

Averages are just that - averages. They don't speak to and may not apply to any particular case. BUT they certainly do point out what has happened historically.

Averages and statistics should not be ignored, but it's important not to reach a definitive conclusion based solely on averages. Averages tell us what is likely to happen in any given situation. Until this case is solved, we won't know if MB's case matches or diverges from the average.

 

[GeeEm]

Could you please point out where I made the green man in my animations "over weight"?

Poor choice of wording should have said the middle area reference to weight(beer belly)??? I didn't mean it like it sounds.

Maybe the Mooyer trial has me worn out 💤

 

[SandyQLS]

But people can come up with any number of excuses to distance themselves from a targeted murder victim. "Oh, there was an affair in that marriage." "Oh, so-and-so spent way too much time away from home and it opened a door for this to happen."

By the way, the link below speaks to trends in murders committed by strangers or unknown circumstances. Such murders represented only 5% of all murders in 1965; by 2001, 57% of all murders were committed by someone with no known connection to the victim.

http://www.angelfire.com/sc3/cjrp/epidemic.html

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The federal government publishes statistics by category which are easily available, and annotated.

http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fvv.pdf

"... * Females are generally murdered by people they know. In 64% of female homicide cases in 2007, females were killed by a family member or intimate partner. In 2007, 24% of female homicide victims were killed by a spouse or ex-spouse; 21% were killed by a boyfriend or girlfriend; and 19% by another family member.

* In an additional 25% of cases in 2007, females were killed by others they knew. An estimated 10% of female murder victims were killed by a stranger. ..."

This particular statistical analysis does not explain whether the 10% of women murdered by a stranger were murdered during the course of another crime such as sexual assault, carjacking, robbery or if the stranger was a murder-for-hire.

That is so unusual that an Angelfire blog posits a rate of 57% total stranger murders in 2001 when the federal government finds that for WOMEN, the rate of stranger murder is only 10% in 2007. I would really like to spend more time searching categorical analyses of women by economic/social class, age, race, marital status, motherhood status, employment, education, and zip code, all factors which can increase or decrease that 10% estimate upwards or downwards.

 

[Scout]

The circumstances of Missy's murder are not average. It isn't necessary to wait for conclusion to see that.

 

[debbiegarcia36]

Explain why Missy's murder should be considered to fall within the 95% norm rather than the 5% exception. You assume that it does when you posit that statistics are useful in solving this particular crime.

Brainstorming? Because we have no new information. Grasping at straws? Desperate to seek clarity?

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[SandyQLS]

I find it kind of ironic that people are quoting and referencing homicide statistics in discussing this murder. There is nothing about Missy's murder that fits within the norms. So why should anyone expect statistics to point in the right direction in trying to identify who the murderer could be?

ETA: Think about it. When stats say 9 out of 10 blah, blah, blah, that leaves 1out of 10 that doesn't fit. Now consider the possibility that Missy's case is just what it appears to be -- completely out of the norm.

It is so completely of of the norm that there is another high profile case at this time with many of the same factors (T. Sievers)?

 

[Batbrat]

Poor choice of wording should have said the middle area reference to weight(beer belly)??? I didn't mean it like it sounds.

Maybe the Mooyer trial has me worn out 

Oh, yeah I see what you're saying - that I didn't subtract weight around the middle torso area. Gotcha. So weird, green man does not look skinny to me. Just lean/average. Maybe folks have different ideas of what skinny is too?

 

[Eloise]

Sure as hell hasn't borne any fruit in this case. Proves my point.

Not really. Not arguing, but it's only been two months. Many cases take longer and result eventually in the arrest of a fairly obvious suspect, the cops just didn't have enough evidence to arrest (yet).

The way the stats add up for murders of women is that women are more likely than men to be murdered by *someone* they know. That includes family, friends, coworkers and acquaintances not just intimate partners, although partners (including exes) is usually the single largest proportion of 'typical suspect in murder of a woman'. That's a huge amount of people to investigate for someone like Missy who had a fairly wide social circle and relatively large extended family. It's not surprising it's taking this long to investigate.

I don't even have a suspect in mind. Just interested in the case as a whole. The discussions here are very different to elsewhere online.

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[Scout]

It is so completely of of the norm that there is another high profile case at this time with many of the same factors (T. Sievers)?

What similarities do you see between this case and Sievers?

 

[wgram]

Do we know if she was killed with the hammer? I've seen several people post that and thought maybe I missed something. I thought LE said something like "tool consistent with what the murderer was carrying," but weren't there several tools in the video?

I was thinking that LE said the injuries were consistent of the tools left at the scene. JMO MHO

 

[Scout]

Not really. Not arguing, but it's only been two months. Many cases take longer and result eventually in the arrest of a fairly obvious suspect, the cops just didn't have enough evidence to arrest (yet).

The way the stats add up for murders of women is that women are more likely than men to be murdered by *someone* they know. That includes family, friends, coworkers and acquaintances not just intimate partners, although partners (including exes) is usually the single largest proportion of 'typical suspect in murder of a woman'. That's a huge amount of people to investigate for someone like Missy who had a fairly wide social circle and relatively large extended family. It's not surprising it's taking this long to investigate.

I don't even have a suspect in mind. Just interested in the case as a whole. The discussions here are very different to elsewhere online.

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I might agree with you if there were any indication of progress in the investigation. I think it's naive to think that police have a suspect and are just electing not to show their hand while they steadily build a case before making an arrest. I believe MPD is being forthright in stating that they are frustrated and have run out of leads.

 

[Eloise]

I might agree with you if there were any indication of progress in the investigation. I think it's naive to think that police have a suspect and are just electing not to show their hand while they steadily build a case before making an arrest. I believe MPD is being forthright in stating that they are frustrated and have run out of leads.

I have no idea what's happening behind the closed doors of MPD. I only know what I've observed in other cases. It can often seem like nothing is happening and no progress is being made and then out of the blue an arrest is made. But it wasn't really out of the blue, it just seems that way to the general public who are not privy to the details that aren't shared. We probably only know the tip of the iceberg.

I don't know if they have a suspect or even a list of possible suspects. I have no opinion on that.

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[Scout]

I have no idea what's happening behind the closed doors of MPD. I only know what I've observed in other cases. It can often seem like nothing is happening and no progress is being made and then out of the blue an arrest is made. But it wasn't really out of the blue, it just seems that way to the general public who are not privy to the details that aren't shared. We probably only know the tip of the iceberg.

I don't know if they have a suspect or even a list of possible suspects. I have no opinion on that.

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Yes, and sometimes there is no iceberg.

 

[MzOpinion8d]

This is a good possibility for the interrupted robbery theory. A parishioner who has been out of work decides to grab the Sunday offering, gets interrupted by MB, and is very afraid of being found out by his community.

I think a better possibility is a 17 year old boy that lives nearby (within walking distance), his father is military or LE and a little too strict on the discipline, the boy may get picked on because he is small, and was just becoming more delinquent. All pure speculation by me.

That sure is some detailed speculation!

 

[WannaBDetective]

Explain why Missy's murder should be considered to fall within the 95% norm rather than the 5% exception. You assume that it does when you posit that statistics are useful in solving this particular crime.

IMO, if it was a normal murder, all us strangers wouldn't be mesmerized, reading the equivalent of 5 of 10 books about it, and talking to each other a few ticks after midnight.

 

[debbiegarcia36]

Not really. Not arguing, but it's only been two months. Many cases take longer and result eventually in the arrest of a fairly obvious suspect, the cops just didn't have enough evidence to arrest (yet).

The way the stats add up for murders of women is that women are more likely than men to be murdered by *someone* they know. That includes family, friends, coworkers and acquaintances not just intimate partners, although partners (including exes) is usually the single largest proportion of 'typical suspect in murder of a woman'. That's a huge amount of people to investigate for someone like Missy who had a fairly wide social circle and relatively large extended family. It's not surprising it's taking this long to investigate.

I don't even have a suspect in mind. Just interested in the case as a whole. The discussions here are very different to elsewhere online.

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I agree with yu. To your point, doesn't LE say when investigating a murder that they start from the inside (people closest and most known by the victim) and work outwards. They want to eliminate those known by the victim first.

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[SandyQLS]

What similarities do you see between this case and Sievers?

I have not been following the TS case at all, but it has been mentioned often in this thread by other posters. Short list primarily from a Victimology POV:

Victimology
-middle-aged
-middle-class to upper middle-class
-Caucasian
-married
-mother
-not engaged in risky lifestyles such as prostitution and drugs
-has stable lifestyle
-experiencing marital struggles (in MB case, also financial struggles)
-employed
-educated
-has good ties to extended family
-has good ties to community
-has deep ties to community
-respected in work circles
-respected in social circles
-no known enemies
-resides in low crime area
-homeowner
-vehicle owner
-no known health problems (impairments)
-a woman who could attract the attention of males; attractive
-a woman who could attract the jealousy and envy of other women
-victim alone
-others knew victim would be alone
-others knew victim would be at specified location
-attacked during darkness
-murdered inside a building
-murdered in place and not kidnapped
-body left to be discovered by others
-no attempt to conceal murder/or ineffective or aborted attempt
-vicious attack with tool(s)
-attack to head
-attack causing relatively quick death (as opposed to prolonged death or chance for survival)
-elements of overkill in attack (ensure death)
-possible burglary staging
-if burglary staging, failure to take accessible valuables
-husband out of state with airtight alibi
-husband stands to benefit financially from death (charged in Sievers case; not known in MB case); could benefit
-murder for hire (charged in Sievers case; not known in MB case); could be

 

[Eloise]

I agree with yu. To your point, doesn't LE say when investigating a murder that they start from the inside (people closest and most known by the victim) and work outwards. They want to eliminate those known by the victim first.

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Yeah that's usual practise. I guess the chance that it's someone known is high enough that most of the time it's just going to be easier to do it that way, plus you'd probably learn a lot about the victim and their circumstances which would help if the situation turned out to be more complex.

I've just been reading about how successful LE are at solving crime. The stats aren't great. They have powers that grant them the opportunity to investigate that the person on the street does not, the power to arrest and charge, but they have the same confirmation biases and blind spots everyone does.

It's quite disturbing to think how many rapists, assaulters (is that even a word) and murderers walk free.

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[rodee34]

I'll go through this:
-excessive costuming and gear unnecessary to the task and inhibiting of task of burglary
True, but it also has worked to conceal the identity.

-wore boots for a fight instead of shoes for running, potential flight
We don't know what kind of shoes were worn.

-no bag noted to carry stolen items
LE has never said there wasn't a bag. We don't know.

-recon of SWFA cameras to avoid detection, with
We don't know if the perp reconned SWFA

-failure to recon CoC activities for hour of burglary, activity that occurred for 7.5 months on Mondays at that hour
True, but it is also the most likely time to rob a church because of the collections.

-statistically odd hour for burglary
Statistically, the most likely time to rob a church.

-burglar goal is theft and avoid arrest, so likely to flee if discovered, with
Fear that Missy would call 911 and be caught. It would be there 3rd strike and they don't want to go to prison.

-overkill nature of murder to ensure death, instead of bash unconscious/immobilize and flee
Maybe

-vandalism that does not lead to theft of property, seems purposeless
True, vandalism seems purposeless but vandalism still happens frequently.

-arrives with B&E tools for exterior break in
How is a robber supposed to get in?

-locates and uses CoC tools in the interior, unnecessary, waste of time
Sometimes, robbers fix themselves a meal and watch the television.

-time spent in kitchen (searching for tools as murder weapons?)
Irrelevant

-general purposeless and slow wandering
If it doesn't make sense for a robber, it doesn't make sense for a murderer, either.

-excessive calm, followed by extreme violence, return to clear enough thinking to escape undetected
See above.

-no reports of crazed fleeing like a speeding car, for an aborted burglary
Perhaps, not seen or there were reports and we don't know. But also, if it doesn't make sense for a robber, it doesn't make sense for a murderer, either.i

-no property taken from CoC
Because it was interrupted.

-no property taken from MB
Because it was interrupted and avoiding arrest became more important than robbery.

-most CoC receipts from collections are in the form of checks and electronic, only small cash amounts
Link?

-unknown, but most churches do not keep collections at church overnight, or would have safe
We don't know what they do with their collections and the robber may not have known either.

-apparently not a local burglar known to police (the usual suspects round up has produced nothing)
This is the first I've heard that the usual suspects were rounded up. Link?

-illogical to avoid arrest for burglary to trade-up to murder during burglary felony
Criminals do illogical things. It is illogical to rob a church and it is illogical to murder Missy.

Direct TARGETED kill OMO...

 

[debbiegarcia36]

I have no idea what's happening behind the closed doors of MPD. I only know what I've observed in other cases. It can often seem like nothing is happening and no progress is being made and then out of the blue an arrest is made. But it wasn't really out of the blue, it just seems that way to the general public who are not privy to the details that aren't shared. We probably only know the tip of the iceberg.

I don't know if they have a suspect or even a list of possible suspects. I have no opinion on that.

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Today Sheriff Mike Scott in Florida reamed the media on Facebook because they have been interfering with a few of his investigations that have been under surveillance and nearly blew LE's cover. Its very possible SP is under surveillance in this case as well and that is why no updates have been provided. I wish I could provide the link but I am on a mobile phone. But the link to the sheriffs Facebook comment was posted today by Scout in the Theresa Sievers Sidebar thread #4 .

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