"1) she just came back from an out of town trip." Not sure of your point here. She had to be in Midlothian to be murdered in Midlothian. I don't see how her whereabouts a day or two beforehand have relevance to what happened on Monday morning when she was back to her normal schedule - unless it can be shown that something unusual happened on the out of town trip, which hasn't been the case.
"2) it was (IIRC) going to be the last class at the church," Don't recall seeing anything that would indicate MB was moving the class. I'd like to see a link if that's the case. And if true, one would assume that she would still be having a 5 am class somewhere... and it would have been likely to be somewhere outside just like before, and she would go to that location at 4:15 just like at Creekside, so if perp was targeting Missy, wouldn't he have the same opportunity at a new location that he had at the old one?
"3) her husband was out of town (though I'm not implying he was involved)" With nothing to indicate that BB ever attended these classes with MB, does it really matter whether he was out of state or whether he was in his house?
4) it was later in the morning than most burglaries occur (statistically) I don't agree. The perp is first seen on camera at 3:50 am. We don't know how long he had been there before that time. No cameras in the kitchen area which is closest to point of entry. Perp could have spent an indeterminate amount of time in that area looking around or snacking. There is nothing statistically out of whack about a B&E in the timeframe of 2 to 4 am.
"5) SP was right where MB was walking toward to, I presume, open the other door" Assumes facts not in evidence. There is so little we know about exactly how the two encountered one another. We can speculate but we know nothing definitive other than "SW corner of the interior of the building".
"6) we don't see that many break-ins with a perp wearing this level of costume--so hiding any identifying information was a high priority (and do you think a perp would go to this level for just a minor church burglary?)" I do concur that this level of costume is unusual. But LE has noted in their pressers that the level of video detail is not sufficient enough to draw very many conclusions about the outfit. We don't know how hard or how easy it was for the perp to come up with the outfit. We don't know whether it was ordered as a complete set online, or whether it was cobbled together piecemeal. We don't know if it's paintball gear, or a Halloween costume, or legit LE tactical gear. That makes it difficult to conclude much without having answers to some of those questions. But you're right, it isn't every day that someone in tactical-type gear is caught on video wandering through a church breaking stuff. It's one element that supports my #2 theory, that MB may have been targeted, but targeted by a stranger and not someone she knows. ETA: as for the last part of your statement about "minor church burglary" - we do again have to consider the fact that it could have been a B&E to raid the kitchen, or vandalize, etc. Theft might have been a secondary motivation or no motivation at all.
"7) she had just received a "creepy" message through a social media site." With no further information about this other than what was in the SW, all we can do is speculate. How "creepy" was it, as sometimes creepy is in the eye of the beholder? What if it was just some spam junkmail message that wasn't even specific to MB? What if it was a "wrong number" where it went to her by mistake? I'm reminded of the former Eagle Randy Meisner, whose wife's death this spring in a freak accident was preceded by a creepy text message she had gotten in the days prior to her death. Police found no connection.
Perhaps you see it as unfair to speculate, but IIRC, that's kind of the point about Websleuths. You sound like a defense attorney, where do you practice? When I have more time, I'll address each one of your counterpoints.
Apparently I have a few minutes before I head out for the evening to respond.
1) There are some who do believe that the out of town trip is related to the murder. I don't know if it is, but the fact that the murder happened on this particular Monday after a trip where MB was traveling with a male colleague is, IMO, relevant. You might be familiar with the term "totality of the circumstances." I look at these individual points as part of a whole, not definitive proof of anything standing alone.
2) Yes, I thought the class would be moving based on the later post you referred to. If that had been the case, it would have contributed to my argument that it is a little too coincidental.
3) If it was well known that BB would be out of the town, the murderer might have multiple reasons to pick that time to hurt Missy: a) to divert suspicion onto--or away from--the husband, b) to eliminate any possibility that BB might accompany her (if it's true that BB was telling members of his family that he was worried about MB), c) etc.
4) I have chatted with other attorneys, family members who are locals, and two retired LEOs about burglary at such a time, and the consensus was that 3-4pm was unusual for the area, and (for those with professional experience) unusual in general. You are welcome to disagree.
5) I think can easily be inferred from the information provided already that she was opening the main door to walk around to open the covered door (which was in the SW area). In fact, it's not really an inference because the press conference and search warrants indicate that she headed toward where SP was last seen. So yes, I stand by the idea that it is too coincidental that, in the entire building, SP happened to be where she was walking toward when she was walking that way.
6) I trust Batbrat's research that the jacket, at least, could be purchased on Ebay/online, and I think it's a fair inference that someone would not wear this outfit to burglarize and steal from a church. There are so many ways that SP could've concealed his identity without all of that trouble.
7) Again, you're welcome to think that the message is a coincidence, but as someone who has worked on stalking cases and protective orders, if someone is attacked after receiving such a message, which her friend obviously thought was scary enough to report to LE, it is entirely possible that they are related.
