UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #10

[chickenbeakin]

http://www.buryfreepress.co.uk/news...ague-organise-their-own-area-search-1-7735361
I have concerns about this andv the impact of using inexperieced people to look. Why?
The time Corrie has been missing and his physical state.
The frame of mind of people searching. Not really thinking it through if they do find his body.
The impact on them and how it will effect them and their family with images that won't leave their mind.
Sulsar has said that their own searchers have needed their own counselling.
Imo this hasn't been thought through.

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[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

So it's not 12 mph then but 25 mph. Sounds more likely. Still checking sources for first ping at BM.

No it could still be 12mph. It's an average speed, so the first part of the journey could have been done at high speed and the second on foot, giving an average of 12mph.

It all depends on how often the phone pinged in those 28 mins, which we do not know.


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[MidsummersDay]

No it could still be 12mph. It's an average speed, so the first part of the journey could have been done at high speed and the second on foot, giving an average of 12mph.

It all depends on how often the phone pinged in those 28 mins, which we do not know.


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I understand where your coming from and you could be correct about him being on foot for part of the journey.
This is effectively a double algebraic equation in that there are several constants (a,b,c & d) and a variable (X) in the formula.

The first part is;
Two fixed positions at 13 miles apart = a&b constant.
One fixed time at 0500 which is stated by Nicola's FindCorrie page = c constant.
One variable speed =X

The second part is a variation on the above in that the 'd' variable can be debated to any time from 0324 to 0430 in BSE so it would be;

Two fixed positions at 13 miles apart = a&b constant
One fixed time at 0430 which is stated by Suffolk Police website = c constant
One variable time at BSE = d constant
One variable speed =X

Get it?


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[MidsummersDay]

So basically we could simplify that and use a time/speed /distance equation in lay mans terms;
Time (t) = ?
Speed (S) = below the speed limit so let's say 29 mph
Distance (D) = 13 miles.

So D/S=t


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[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

And x number of pings in x number of inaccurate locations.

You are taking the distance from a map assuming that the route travelled was the main road in that direction, further to that you cannot be sure how far the signal of either mast stretches. Therefore a & b - two fixed positions are variables.



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[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

So basically we could simplify that and use a time/speed /distance equation in lay mans terms;
Time (t) = ?
Speed (S) = below the speed limit so let's say 29 mph
Distance (D) = 13 miles.

So D/S=t


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The only constant is time because the phone could have hit BM mast 8 miles out from it or 50 meters out from it.


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[Polo]

They keep going back to the bin lorry that it's looking likely the phone was separated from Corrie and thrown in the bin, so Nicola's viewpoint is in all her interviews, he could not have walked unseen and not been picked up by any of the cameras because there are so many of them. Therefore he was separated from his phone forcefully or accidentally and it ended up in the bin and Corrie left that horseshoe area in a vehicle. I don't think Nicola and Tony think the same, after going back over all the interviews. Tony is the one who early on made an appeal to him if he was AWOL to come back and things could be sorted out. Tony is the one who mentioned the phone pings near a dogging site in the radio interview. When asked about Corrie being gay, in the same interview Tony stated he didn't know what his nephew did, whereas Nicola refuted that there was any possibility he could be gay. Tony is the one who stated he could have left the bin area obscured by a vehicle. Tony has been more open to all options, whereas Nicola has discounted AWOL, suicide, leaving on foot, so it's leaving willingly and unwillingly in a vehicle from the horseshoe. When Tony and Nicola were interviewed in the Victoria Derbyshire programme, Tony although stating in that interview that Corrie could have left the area obscured by a vehicle on foot, he then didn't mention this again when running through the options after Nicola had spoken. Would Nicola know more than Tony, highly unlikely that she wouldn't share information and vice versa? In his last interview, Tony stated he didn't think Corrie was alive. Corrie's dad and his grandfather said likewise, and now Nicola has started the public searches. It does look like there has been a change around the time of the grandparents reward. JMO Sources of information are all on Find Corrie website radio and TV interviews. This doesn't add anything new to your question, Polo!

I actually remember reading something where Tony had shared his early interview asking Corrie to get in touch. I think it was when he was saying about the possibility of AWOL and Nicola made a comment with words to to effect of If Corrie could get in touch he would have. I sensed a bit of animosity there and it was noticeable later that Tony changed his views on what may have happened and has also stated that AWOL is not an option.

 

[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

In a way yes. Nicola stated that the mast transmissions are approximately 3-5kms (we all know about dead spots, weather interferences, dips, trees and magnetic interference, mast power etc so ROUGHLY speaking). That's two fixed constants for the distance part. That's actually the third part of the formula once the other two equations have been worked out (not the mast distances).

It's been stated by the family that the phone route was 'triangulated' and matched the route of the bin lorry along the A1101 (sorry no link).

Does that make sense?


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Not really, if you are talking simultaneous algebraic equations then you can't have a rough constant because your sum product could be wildly inaccurate.

I see what you are getting at though but what I'm saying is it's not as simple as finding the distance between two points and dividing it by the time. Although that's all we have to go on at present, we should be mindful that the other factors we are unaware of (such as number of pings/direction/even the phones technology) could lead us up the wrong path.

Personally I'm not even convinced that the police have solid information on the phone pings, if they were that confident they would have searched the area they believed the phone to be in i.e. the last known position when it pinged. As far as I'm aware that hasn't been disclosed, it's only been mentioned as the recycling centre because they twigged from CCTV that the bin lorry went that way, although if anyone has any links to prove otherwise I am more than happy to look!


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[MidsummersDay]

Not really, if you are talking simultaneous algebraic equations then you can't have a rough constant because your sum product could be wildly inaccurate.

I see what you are getting at though but what I'm saying is it's not as simple as finding the distance between two points and dividing it by the time. Although that's all we have to go on at present, we should be mindful that the other factors we are unaware of (such as number of pings/direction/even the phones technology) could lead us up the wrong path.

Personally I'm not even convinced that the police have solid information on the phone pings, if they were that confident they would have searched the area they believed the phone to be in i.e. the last known position when it pinged. As far as I'm aware that hasn't been disclosed, it's only been mentioned as the recycling centre because they twigged from CCTV that the bin lorry went that way, although if anyone has any links to prove otherwise I am more than happy to look!


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Completely agree. I was trying to simplify it for the forum but you're correct.

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[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

Completely agree. I was trying to simplify it for the forum but you're correct.

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As a side not to your original post regarding it looking like they have worked out the d/s/t from town centre to town centre you can use the same logic to roughly work out where the BM mast area extends to. If we are saying the phone pinged at 04:30 at BSE and at 04:58 it pinged BM mast then you can work out how far from the BSE ping to the BM outer signal area;

28mins / 60mins = 0.46 of an hour
Family quoted speed average of 12mph

0.46 x 12 = 5.52 miles from BSE ping

Again, not knowing the location of the last ping it's difficult to actually map it.

Also, harking back to my post on the inaccuracy of it and the lack of information to make a proper estimate; if the phone was tracked travelling faster after entering the BM mast area (which we are unaware of) then we don't know if 12mph is a average over the whole route or just between those two points.

Does that make sense?



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[CoverMeCagney]

Have I accidentally stumbled onto the maths thread?

:giggle:

 

[MidsummersDay]

As a side not to your original post regarding it looking like they have worked out the d/s/t from town centre to town centre you can use the same logic to roughly work out where the BM mast area extends to. If we are saying the phone pinged at 04:30 at BSE and at 04:58 it pinged BM mast then you can work out how far from the BSE ping to the BM outer signal area;

28mins / 60mins = 0.46 of an hour
Family quoted speed average of 12mph

0.46 x 12 = 5.52 miles from BSE ping

Again, not knowing the location of the last ping it's difficult to actually map it.

Also, harking back to my post on the inaccuracy of it and the lack of information to make a proper estimate; if the phone was tracked travelling faster after entering the BM mast area (which we are unaware of) then we don't know if 12mph is a average over the whole route or just between those two points.

Does that make sense?



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Absolutely makes sense. What we can say then (from town centre to town centre roughly) is that the phone travelled at between 12mph and <30mph?
I know this is going to seem confusing for the forum thread but I think it's important if not very involved, as it COULD give a closer estimation of when he left BSE and consequently put potential witnesses and vehicles in the loop.

See where I'm going with this shizzle?


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[MissTerious]

http://www.buryfreepress.co.uk/news...ague-organise-their-own-area-search-1-7735361
I have concerns about this andv the impact of using inexperieced people to look. Why?
The time Corrie has been missing and his physical state.
The frame of mind of people searching. Not really thinking it through if they do find his body.
The impact on them and how it will effect them and their family with images that won't leave their mind.
Sulsar has said that their own searchers have needed their own counselling.
Imo this hasn't been thought through.

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I totally agree with you. If they do find Corrie over the weekend its going to be something not easily erased from the mind. I hope they will be well counselled before and after and given good indications of what they might find. I'm hoping that Nicola or family won't take part, it would be horrendous for them.

 

[Mummywithissues]

I'm opinion its want ever time he saw the homeless man would be a big clue, if it was early after flex and before the takeaway then not so important but if it was later in the door way or on the way to loading bay then I would think more important, looks like I'm walking home, the word it looks like is more like my mates have gone so it looks like I'm on my own to make my own way back, but we don't even know if they are the same words used !

What if the reason for the huge amount of food he ordered was so he could give some to the homeless guy? Could explain him being on CCTV with what looks like only a chip tray.

SORRY! Kept reading and just saw others had commented on Nicola stating that Corrie actually did share food with the homeless man. Sorry!

 

[MidsummersDay]

I totally agree with you. If they do find Corrie over the weekend its going to be something not easily erased from the mind. I hope they will be well counselled before and after and given good indications of what they might find. I'm hoping that Nicola or family won't take part, it would be horrendous for them.

To be honest I'm absolutely aghast and surprised. Jo Public is not the person to potentially locate/triage/recover a body (if we're talking past tense) unless they have selected ex military types, ex SAR or ex Civil Emergency types. The mental scaring will be indelible forever. I should know.


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[Ironside]

To be honest I'm absolutely aghast and surprised. Jo Public is not the person to potentially locate/triage/recover a body (if we're talking past tense) unless they have selected ex military types, ex SAR or ex Civil Emergency types. The mental scaring will be indelible forever. I should know.


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They have warned all volunteers what to expect. Nobody is being forced to search.

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[CoverMeCagney]

To be honest I'm absolutely aghast and surprised. Jo Public is not the person to potentially locate/triage/recover a body (if we're talking past tense) unless they have selected ex military types, ex SAR or ex Civil Emergency types. The mental scaring will be indelible forever. I should know.


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I'm surprised too, having learnt that they are taking 30 members of the public to search. Why couldn't they have just borrowed 30 RAF lads? I know the RAF and police have been undertaking searches already, and I assume the family and friends have been out physically looking, I hope it means that most other potential areas have already been thoroughly searched and Thetford Forest is just the last bit to do.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

The frame of mind of people searching. Not really thinking it through if they do find his body.
The impact on them and how it will effect them and their family with images that won't leave their mind.
Sulsar has said that their own searchers have needed their own counselling.
Imo this hasn't been thought through.

[aside]
You know, I wonder if most people really do need "counselling" to deal with every shock or problem, or if it's a "need" created by the counselling industry. How on earth did people cope throughout history with far worse than possibly finding a body? I really do think this automatic rush to offer counselling can only undermine natural human resilience.
[/aside]

 

[Scorpio1]

To be honest I'm absolutely aghast and surprised. Jo Public is not the person to potentially locate/triage/recover a body (if we're talking past tense) unless they have selected ex military types, ex SAR or ex Civil Emergency types. The mental scaring will be indelible forever. I should know.


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I would be very surprised if they find anything, thetford forest is massive and would take many weeks to search, they aren't going to cover much area in one day, I would expect that it is more to make it look like they are doing some thing exercise and get a bit of publicity out of it, IMO

 

[Shiressleuth]

I'm surprised too, having learnt that they are taking 30 members of the public to search. Why couldn't they have just borrowed 30 RAF lads? I know the RAF and police have been undertaking searches already, and I assume the family and friends have been out physically looking, I hope it means that most other potential areas have already been thoroughly searched and Thetford Forest is just the last bit to do.

I think they have said physically fit and have also said ex police or services preferred or similar words. They will take those best suited and all have to be under the Sulsar umbrella anyway I think.