UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #8

[Amonet]

Sorry, I think I meant to add on to my last post that if they have no evidence of something, then the police simply state they have no evidence of it. But that isn't the same as the police saying that it can't have happened.

Say there were 300 vehicles on the roads in and around BSE to Barton Mills/Mildenhall from say 3am to 6am, and every single one of those car drivers says "no, I didn't see Corrie or give him a lift" ... what are the police to do?

 

[eeejay268]

Can anyone remember the acreage if you will, that a mast can cover?

see I'm still bewildered by his body language going into the horseshoe....It was sheepish/shifty....jmo

 

[redsnapper86]

That's what I think redsnapper86. They (and I don't blame them) want to believe Corrie is alive and stay positive, anything else would be just to awful to contemplate.

I agree, I can't imagine the hell they're going through!
When the chief constable was being questioned by BBC East yesterday she mentioned they were treating it as a murder investigation....But her tone when talking about it seemed to me to infer that they didn't really believe it to be so; that they were doing something out of the ordinary for Nicola, perhaps because she's police too...just an observation. I don't know if anyone else thought that.

 

[Dcflag]

Is there any reason Corrie couldn't have walked to Barton mills in those times scales? Bury to bm is almost 12 miles away. To ping the mast you only have to be in the radius, so minus 3 miles. That gives an hour and a half to walk 9 miles. Apparently an average person can walk 8 miles in around two hours. I'd assume bury has a bigger mast radius? So we're looking at an hour to get out of the bury mast radius and half an hour from there to enter the Barton mills radius.

I would say it's certainly possible given that I don't know how the pings work, in terms of if the timings are accurate, whether they ping straight away when you enter or leave a mast radius etc.

My partner has done a 7 mile tab today so I'll ask how long on average it takes them. The only reason I'd sway to it being unlikely is the amount of drink Corrie had had. I'm not sure he would keep up the speed needed to do the journey that quickly. But I'm not sure it's impossible?

Of course then you'd have to wonder why the hell he was walking in the wrong direction home!

If the police can completely discount the phone pings being the result of Corrie walking then they either have evidence he was separated from his phone or they have evidence of a third party. Surely until they rule one out they can't categorically say there was no third party? And they don't have the phone.

 

[Dcflag]

Sorry, I think I meant to add on to my last post that if they have no evidence of something, then the police simply state they have no evidence of it. But that isn't the same as the police saying that it can't have happened.

Say there were 300 vehicles on the roads in and around BSE to Barton Mills/Mildenhall from say 3am to 6am, and every single one of those car drivers says "no, I didn't see Corrie or give him a lift" ... what are the police to do?

You're right, no evidence doesn't mean it didn't happen (I think that's what I was trying to get at with the mark duggan quote lol) I think it's because it comes across as the police going an angle the family aren't happy with I guess the walking vs third party fits that, as they both seem to be very divided in their opinions of how he left the horseshoe

 

[jessie]

I agree, I can't imagine the hell they're going through!
When the chief constable was being questioned by BBC East yesterday she mentioned they were treating it as a murder investigation....But her tone when talking about it seemed to me to infer that they didn't really believe it to be so; that they were doing something out of the ordinary for Nicola, perhaps because she's police too...just an observation. I don't know if anyone else thought that.

I may be quite incorrect here, but I believe speaking of it as a 'murder investigation' is policespeak for the amount of resources that are being utilised here.
Happy to have more knowledgeable posters to correct me.

 

[cotswoldemmie]

Is there any reason Corrie couldn't have walked to Barton mills in those times scales? Bury to bm is almost 12 miles away. To ping the mast you only have to be in the radius, so minus 3 miles. That gives an hour and a half to walk 9 miles. Apparently an average person can walk 8 miles in around two hours. I'd assume bury has a bigger mast radius? So we're looking at an hour to get out of the bury mast radius and half an hour from there to enter the Barton mills radius.

I would say it's certainly possible given that I don't know how the pings work, in terms of if the timings are accurate, whether they ping straight away when you enter or leave a mast radius etc.

My partner has done a 7 mile tab today so I'll ask how long on average it takes them. The only reason I'd sway to it being unlikely is the amount of drink Corrie had had. I'm not sure he would keep up the speed needed to do the journey that quickly. But I'm not sure it's impossible?

Of course then you'd have to wonder why the hell he was walking in the wrong direction home!

If the police can completely discount the phone pings being the result of Corrie walking then they either have evidence he was separated from his phone or they have evidence of a third party. Surely until they rule one out they can't categorically say there was no third party? And they don't have the phone.

Maybe he was drunk and disorientated. I've read other cases where the misper has gone in all manner of bizarre directions after a night out, being dazed & confused, judgment impaired.
Or maybe he was headed to a friends in Mildenhall and had decided to walk or at least set off walking with the hope of picking up a lift along the way.


Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.

 

[MidsummersDay]

Midsummer, please could you put the 'eyelet' on Purple's edmundos pic with ur pen thingy? Also, is that Looms lane opposite? Just so those of us who don't know BSE can be sure where we are talking about. Also cctv locations of that area? All the maps are on older threads now.

 

[TheTruthWillOut]

I may be quite incorrect here, but I believe speaking of it as a 'murder investigation' is policespeak for the amount of resources that are being utilised here.
Happy to have more knowledgeable posters to correct me.

That is exactly what (and only thing, IMO) she meant. The resources put into the search/investigation of Corrie is at least the same as if a murder inquiry was taking place according to her.

 

[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

The way I understand phone pings is that the phone sends tiny packets of data to all surrounding base stations, one will have the higher signal strength so the phone will be connected to that as its home mast. This doesn't necessarily mean that the other available masts will not receive pings from that phone anymore. This is how you would work out the direction someone is travelling.

I believe that you can't work out exactly where someone is by their phone without having more than two other masts available not including the one the phone is currently connected to, this is called triangulation and is not always 100% accurate due to environmental issues or interference. However by using the home masts pings getting stronger and the secondary masts pings getting weaker you can roughly calculate how fast the phone was moving and in what rough direction, pinpointing it to an exact road would probably be asking two much, I would imagine you could probably narrow it down to a corridor which in itself could be a few miles wide.

So to the people who have previously mentioned Corries phone all of a sudden switching from one mast to another, I don't think it works like that.

 

[eeejay268]

So why can they not search the whole area where the pings took place, particularly the area where it crossed over?

 

[Dcflag]

The way I understand phone pings is that the phone sends tiny packets of data to all surrounding base stations, one will have the higher signal strength so the phone will be connected to that as its home mast. This doesn't necessarily mean that the other available masts will not receive pings from that phone anymore. This is how you would work out the direction someone is travelling.

I believe that you can't work out exactly where someone is by their phone without having more than two other masts available not including the one the phone is currently connected to, this is called triangulation and is not always 100% accurate due to environmental issues or interference. However by using the home masts pings getting stronger and the secondary masts pings getting weaker you can roughly calculate how fast the phone was moving and in what rough direction, pinpointing it to an exact road would probably be asking two much, I would imagine you could probably narrow it down to a corridor which in itself could be a few miles wide.

So to the people who have previously mentioned Corries phone all of a sudden switching from one mast to another, I don't think it works like that.

Thank you for that, I'm terrible with the mast stuff! Would you say then that the ping times we have are when that mast has switched to a stronger signal?

 

[JamesKing]

I wonder if the vehicles have perhaps been eliminated. It's a hard one to call but the police certainly seem to be thinking differently to the family.

I wonder if the vehicles have even been "found".
The term "identified" is a bit of a "catch all".

Saying "It's a Red Mercedes E class saloon" is technically "identifying" it as something other than "it's a car".

 

[Mel F]

I agree, I can't imagine the hell they're going through!
When the chief constable was being questioned by BBC East yesterday she mentioned they were treating it as a murder investigation....But her tone when talking about it seemed to me to infer that they didn't really believe it to be so; that they were doing something out of the ordinary for Nicola, perhaps because she's police too...just an observation. I don't know if anyone else thought that.

I too watched the interview and I do not recall her saying any such thing. I recall her saying that they are putting as many resources into finding him as they would if it were a murder investigation. This has an entirely different meaning IMO. I stand corrected if I misheard what she was saying.

 

[Shiressleuth]

Midsummer, could you please repost your mast map showing the times and also your map showing the red route out of BSE to BM via the A1101 alongside the cctv route which I think was in blue? I discussed this on a previous thread but with so many closures have lost the thread of that in my mind and now cannot even find my post where I mentioned walking then hitching via the A1101.

 

[TheTruthWillOut]

Does anyone know or heard anything about the CCTV images that are supposed to release this week? Have they cancelled that or is it still to go ahead?

 

[WhereIsJohnnyGosch]

They might have done or it may not be as straight forward as that depending on the amount of base stations in that area. Here is an example of somewhere with two base stations, essentially the search area would be the whole area where the two circles overlap. Then you add in things like could the phone have been switched off and back on again, in some cases phones will lock onto a base station even if the signal is weaker which is why when you have problems with your phone they always tell you to turn it off and back on again to see if you regain signal. When the phone starts searching again it will lock onto the base station with the best signal. There is environmental issues, you may be closer to one base station but the signal is weaker because of trees or reflection off a body of water for example. When you consider that you could be wasting huge amounts of resources for what could turn out to be a completely unrecoverable phone it may not make sense, especially if it doesn't fit with any evidence they already have that suggests this isn't an important lead.

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[MidsummersDay]

The idea you cannot leave the horseshoe without being detected has been BS from the start IMO. It's only now that I see it's probably being touted like that to make someone feel guilty that they are "caught red handed on CCTV" in an effort to get them to come forward. The reality is they probably got away scott free. The other issue is that they wouldn't even have to TRY to evade CCTV for them to fall into the 80% likelihood of being able to anyway.

Greenwoods CCTV cam looks at Corrie's alley for 30 seconds and then elsewhere for 1min 30. If you ain't seen in that 30 seconds, you can go wherever you like from the Horseshoe up Short Brackland and never be seen again. ONLY if you go up towards Greenwoods (like 4 min lurker) or past Cornhill (like running man) will you actually be definitively seen on CCTV again.

Why is Corrie not seen on Greenwoods CCTV after 3.24am? Cos for every 2 minutes of footage it's only looking at the horseshoe for 30 seconds. Someone may do the math and work out how much time that actually equals between 3.30 and 8am. If he and other party (if involved) never went past Cornhill, there's a seriously high chance they'd never be detected again. Personally I feel foot and vehicle could both still be in play, because you can "evade" the horseshoe CCTV on either, and evade the CCTV further out from the horseshoe also on either foot or car.

My maths may be rusty so forgive me...
34.5 minutes total of 30 second 'Horseshoe' footage (Greenwoods sweep).138 minutes total of 1 minute 30 second footage of the 'Eyelet' (Greenwoods sweep).
276 minutes of total footage of Greenwoods CCTV from 0324-0800.

 

[Dcflag]

They might have done or it may not be as straight forward as that depending on the amount of base stations in that area. Here is an example of somewhere with two base stations, essentially the search area would be the whole area where the two circles overlap. Then you add in things like could the phone have been switched off and back on again, in some cases phones will lock onto a base station even if the signal is weaker which is why when you have problems with your phone they always tell you to turn it off and back on again to see if you regain signal. When the phone starts searching again it will lock onto the base station with the best signal. There is environmental issues, you may be closer to one base station but the signal is weaker because of trees or reflection off a body of water for example. When you consider that you could be wasting huge amounts of resources for what could turn out to be a completely unrecoverable phone it may not make sense, especially if it doesn't fit with any evidence they already have that suggests this isn't an important lead.

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That makes a lot more sense. So really all you can say is the phone was in the general mast area at the general time?

I think for me my issue isn't about finding the phone which I agree is most likely wasting resources but why they can't connect him in that area using the pings. They seem to be pretty fixated in bse and the horseshoe area when there is evidence to suggest he left the area. Although I guess it comes under not being able to rule anything out (whether he had the phone when it travelled or not)

I know they have done searching based on the phone movements but I thought it would be a little more important considering Nicola herself has said many raf lads have connections with the usaf lads.

 

[Shiressleuth]

When they were doing searches, they also assumed he was walking back to Honington. If in actual fact he was planning to go to Mildenhall and began walking that would be the A1101, which is why I am now wondering where they have searched. It may be on the find corrie website so I'll have a look.