Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

It's a good theory. Although why do you think there is so little evidence of a struggle or fight back?
Do you think Nicola was coshed over the head from behind or something like that?

My personal opinion is that NB was completely taken by surprise in an incident that was either planned or escalated to extreme violence so rapidly that an average person would not expect it. I imagine weaponry was used. She may have even been stunned or shot.

Who was in earshot to know about what noises were happening at the time?

 

[Bedouin]

I wonder if NB has gone missing previously?
Both her partner and the police were both quick to act upon her missing. Just a thought. JMO

Maybe the police already had an appointment with someone nearby

 

[NorrisandRita]

Is there any way Nicola could have left the area not by Blackpool Lane but on the road to Myerscough College or past the garage and left at the corner towards Hambleton? Any CCTV footage on those roads?

 

[ShireChe]

Even if an altercation took place somewhere with no CCTV, it's so unlikely the person could have entered and left the area without any evidence of the fact.

Police have no evidence of NB leaving the area, and they haven't asked for help identifying or tracing anyone they haven't accounted for. If NB didn't leave the area, and was attacked by someone who was never seen entering or leaving, IMO it feels like we're getting into the realm of her being attacked by a ghost.

Do they have evidence (footage not phone tech) of her entering the area though? If not, then does that not suggest there are ways to enter and leave without being spotted?

I still think a river incident is most likely, but why are they so sure that someone else couldn't evade being spotted if Nicola managed it on the way in

 

[WAWAW]

To Q1. I would say that knowing what I would do is of no help in trying to figure out what really happened, because the finder was not me.
To Q.2 If I found the phone and dog, and checked the river, I would not expect to see a body, I would be checking. I would have no way of knowing, how long the dog and phone had been there, when or what occurred, nor whether a body would be visible or moved on with the current.

But knowing the person who found the dog and phone looked in the river and didn't see a body is a huge help to the investigation as it effectively rules out the police hypothesis at that location.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

Do they have evidence (footage not phone tech) of her entering the area though? If not, then does that not suggest there are ways to enter and leave without being spotted?

I've thought this as well.
I've seen no account of her being seen en route to the fields except at the school or wherever she parked her car.

 

[Mr X]

But knowing the person who found the dog and phone looked in the river and didn't see a body is a huge help to the investigation as it effectively rules out the police hypothesis at that location.

Only a Google search but this might be interesting reading.

Drowning is not a long drawn out and noisy affair. It could easily be very fast and very quiet. Specially if planned IMO.

https://journalofsar.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Time-Required-For-a-Drowning-Victim-to-Reach-Bottom.pdf

This is in swimming pools.

Extract:

"
Since it will be shown that the time to reach bottom is relatively short (in seconds), the implication for
search and rescue personnel is that a victim may be on the surface at one point in time, but be on the
bottom 5-10 seconds later. Additionally, the fastest recorded drowning the authors have analyzed, i.e.,
time elapsed between the victim’s head going under water and CPR being started immediately without
the victim recovering, is 38 seconds (Hunsucker & Davison, 2010).

 

[Woodburnbay]

In this case however, high profile police have come forward in the media to say that the way the Lanc police have tackled the case is not how it should be done.

The example of the PCSO who was attacked in Kent - the attack only took 1 minute. Underhill was quite right: ”That attack [lasted] less than one minute. A ten-minute window you cannot rule out criminality. You cannot rule out a third party being at that location." (Quoted from the link ahove)

What you have to remember is that retired police officers sometimes are pushed out early by up and coming ambitious officers. Sometimes there is history between a retired SIO and a new one.

The Superintendent appears to be very capable, except for the fact that she is backing police into a corner on the unsubstantiated drowning with no evidence or discover of evidence.

MWT is one of those who is now a marketing machine for his own ends as are many others.

 

[Davieson]

I've thought this as well.
I've seen no account of her being seen en route to the fields except at the school or wherever she parked her car.

Don't think they've said, but presumably that pat of the journey not in contention.
The garage has a camera, so can presumably place her leaving the road to enter the foorpath.

 

[porkypies]

.....A timeline put together by the police lists Ms Bulley's last known movements, but there is a 10-minute window in which she is unaccounted for.

Mr Underhill, who was in charge of the investigation into the disappearance of Sarah Payne in 2000, added: "You only have to look at the Julia James case in Kent a couple of years ago - the PCSO, off duty, walking her dog - who was tragically attacked.

"That attack [lasted] less than one minute. A ten-minute window you cannot rule out criminality. You cannot rule out a third party being at that location."

The former Sussex Detective Chief Inspector added: "I cannot believe you've got senior officers saying this is clearly a tragic accident."

This seems rather sloppy reporting by Mr. Underhill.
There is no 10 minute window in which NB is unaccounted for, she is accounted for up until the last witness sighting at (9.10 am on 27 Jan.) and unaccounted for ever since.
And the attack on Julia James might have taken one minute - but her killer ran, leaving her body where he killed her, that situation does not compare at all with NB's disappearance.

 

[Davieson]

But knowing the person who found the dog and phone looked in the river and didn't see a body is a huge help to the investigation as it effectively rules out the police hypothesis at that location.

I don't follow your logic.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Do they have evidence (footage not phone tech) of her entering the area though? If not, then does that not suggest there are ways to enter and leave without being spotted?

I still think a river incident is most likely, but why are they so sure that someone else couldn't evade being spotted if Nicola managed it on the way in

That's a very fair point, but there were sightings of NB on the river walk. There is evidence she was there. There's absolutely nothing to suggest anyone was there who hasn't been accounted for.

As the old saying goes, absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. But that will be one of the reasons why the police wanted dashcam footage from Blackpool Ln/Garstang Rd. It has now been almost three weeks and it doesn't appear the police have found anything or anyone suspicious, which is quite telling all by itself.

 

[Anxala]

Something has been on my mind as well. In an interview with EW, and I’m paraphrasing because I don’t remember her words, says come home to Willow..cozy on the sofa (sorry couldn’t find the article). PA says come home…if you’re watching come home. I’m sure it is just a way of wanting her home, and who knows what you’d say if in that situation. Just wondering if it piqued anyone else’s curiosity?

It's difficult to say, isn't it? In the absence of not knowing NB.

I remember the interview/posts you're referring to and it did come across - jmo - as a direct appeal to NB, as if her friend and PA believed she was out there somewhere and possibly in a position to respond. But then it may just have been them, in their grief, and in the absence of any trace of her in the river, refusing to believe that anything bad had happened to her and clinging on to the hope that she was still alive and in a position to hear their appeals to come home.

Only they can provide answers to that since they know her best.

 

[Nikynoo]

Distraught partner of missing Nicola Bulley 'is frustrated with police over their stalling investigation and has been rebuffed by senior officers' - as force only now tries to find anglers fishing on the River Wyre when she vanished 2½ weeks ago​

UK Home | Daily Mail Online

MailOnline - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from MailOnline, Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Were we not discussing fishermen earlier? Lets hope they move onto magnets next.

 

[Lilbitcurious]

The post is still there, dated Oct 2021

Sorry my mistake. I was seeing 7th December not October

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

'evidence gathering was done at the bench' same day as she went missing

Found Deceased - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

Disagree Our spaniels do a circuit and the river is 20 mins from getting home. If the dogs have swum you can tell when they get home. It was stated dog was bone dry .. it would have still been damp I think They take ages to dry.

www.websleuths.com

There's a longer reference to this in the media thread ( one of the press conferences) but you'd need to find that

Kitty's link found by using the WS search bar, top right of every page

ps Royal College of Policing ( online web search) gives a run-down of the usual steps in a misper case, then a suspicious misper case etc ( as investigative evidence folds) Have posted these links before but just as easy to do a web search

Thanks for this info. I wasn't interested in the usual steps taken but the ones that have been taken in this instance.

From my point of view, the mainstream media often report and photograph the police out in the field doing forensic testing and fingertip searches and in this instance there seemed to be a lack of that reported. IMO this may be what has spurred on some vigilante activists as they suspect the police weren't doing much / enough and decided to take matters into their own hands. Just a thought. I'm relieved to know they did what was needed immediately.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

What would a lab do with the bench?

Blood spatter and body fluid and DNA testing I would imagine?

 

[porkypies]

Look for dna, hairs, blood spatter, clothing fibres etc.

But if that were possible, there would be traces of everyone who used the bench plus animals who get onto it, it's a public bench.
There is no evidence that NB was on the bench that day, but maybe trace of her having been on it on a previous day which would not help.

 

[PeteG85]

That's a very fair point, but there were sightings of NB on the river walk. There is evidence she was there. There's absolutely nothing to suggest anyone was there who hasn't been accounted for.

As the old saying goes, absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. But that will be one of the reasons why the police wanted dashcam footage from Blackpool Ln/Garstang Rd. It has now been almost three weeks and it doesn't appear the police have found anything or anyone suspicious, which is quite telling all by itself.

Hold on a minute then...
We are told there were 2 sightings of NB in the Fields by people who know her. Are we sure that they are 2 different witnesses?
How well do they know NB because if this was a planned disappearance by choice ( I personally don't believe it is) Once NB had dropped the children at school, she may never have been in the fields, only her phone had to do the route and eventually the dog needed to be in place.

If a friend was an accomplice in a plan for some reason, she would have had from 8.43 to leave the area

Try as I might, I cannot make sense of any of the witnesses being consistent at all MOO

 

[Furore]

Blood spatter and body fluid and DNA testing I would imagine?

But cops don’t routinely need to remove walls, floors and pavements to a lab to collect this evidence in other cases so why does the entire bench need to be moved for this to happen?