Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

[Mr X]

I will add self harm to that list. Jumping in would shock the system and not really show a struggle.

IMO if the police were aware of an issue of some sort and perhaps medication then the possibility of self harm is quite a reasonable theory. This may be why they actually do know that she is in the River.

There is a sign there with red writing on it which says "deep water". There is an anglers map with "deep hole" on it. If she had asked anglers in passing how deep it actually was in passing one day they would probably have told her.

Who is to say that the missing person had not been planning something? I know a little bit about this topic due to family history of several suicides. Some previous ideation is common and planning may be done in advance but in the heat of the moment, especially if medicated, it is not impossible that a sudden choice is made and you just jump. Stress of work or something else. It is not necessarily a long drawn out process.

IMO jumping in very cold deep water with a lot of clothes on would be a pretty effective way to do this.
Leaving the phone on the bench would be a way to signal your whereabouts assuming that the body is found quickly and family do not have to suffer unduly.

Jumping deliberately feet first into deep water in January would leave no trace in the water or silt. You'd be gone very quickly IMO. Possibly assisted by strong alcohol.

Doesn't explain why the body has not been located though.

Not nice but these things happen and nobody would want to do this and just disappear hence the phone. Someone will find you if they know where you went in..

Not implausible ?

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Bumping this post & bolding the relevant part ^

I do wonder if, at their next conference, the Supt should perhaps go through the basics - as per bold - slowly & succinctly, to the audience in the room. Maybe a power point slide with a flow chart....

It might be at the root of misunderstandings of how police work

In this case however, high profile police have come forward in the media to say that the way the Lanc police have tackled the case is not how it should be done.

The example of the PCSO who was attacked in Kent - the attack only took 1 minute. Underhill was quite right: ”That attack [lasted] less than one minute. A ten-minute window you cannot rule out criminality. You cannot rule out a third party being at that location." (Quoted from the link ahove)

 

[Allabouttrial]

Look for dna, hairs, blood spatter, clothing fibres etc.

On a public bench? Like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

 

[todders]

Small update (Not Major Update) on fishing clubs being asked for details on fishermen around the time of NB disappreance. IMO
Major update in hunt for Nicola Bulley as cops search for new witnesses on river

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

What if the altercation was with someone where CCTV didn’t cover? Not sure I’m convinced on this but just exploring the possibility.

Even if an altercation took place somewhere with no CCTV, it's so unlikely the person could have entered and left the area without any evidence of the fact.

Police have no evidence of NB leaving the area, and they haven't asked for help identifying or tracing anyone they haven't accounted for. If NB didn't leave the area, and was attacked by someone who was never seen entering or leaving, IMO it feels like we're getting into the realm of her being attacked by a ghost.

 

[Truthfinder01]

Not any more! Just hundreds of comments!
There is a map in the comments, which has been replied to with someone saying sheep needed rescued.

The post is still there, dated Oct 2021

 

[mrjitty]

On a public bench? Like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

Right

I think a lot of the media expectation misses that searching needs to be directed. You can't just look at google maps, see a pond and decide to search it, because that really isn't scalable or effective use of resource. Ditto searching every house in the village. Why that village? How many villages is enough?

 

[IKnowNowt]

56 weeks of the year?

I get extra for good behaviour.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

Yes we know, but high tides can cause a river to overtop a weir.

Equally it may be a colloquial reference to the level of the river - it was a foot lower when PF was there than it had been when NB disappeared.

Not wishing to debate but your post said "...at low tide...". Implying like 2 x a day. By extension a high tide coming over the weir will add to the depth so I suppose when that flood tide receded it would go down but that's not really what you were saying - certainly as I read it.

Aside from that, like everyone, I hope she is alive and well somewhere but if not, I do hope she is discovered in the river soon to confirm police hypotheses, and just shut this PF character up.

 

[Dobby’s sock]

Off the wall theory, but here we go....Have the police looked into Isle of Man ferries? Heysham is only a 30 minute drive from where Nicola disappeared. If she was abducted and put in the boot of a car, she could have been on a ferry before the alert was raised and people started looking for her. You don't need a passport to travel there either - just some form of photo ID or a utility bill

The cars going on the boat to IOM get searched. And it would have already had to of been planned/booked you can’t just turn up with your car and hop on the boat. I live there.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

It’s my understanding after watching the BBC Christmas lectures with Sue Black, a prominent pathologist, whose subject related exactly to such matters, blood spatter can be picked up in situ. These lectures can be found on iPlayer from the last week of December 2022.

Given that in my field the DM repeatedly interview “experts” eschewed by the rest of us who do not know all the facts on specific cases and spout off, I don’t find any of their sources convincing either tbh. They’re interested in sensationalism not the truth. Just look at what happens here, the mundane options don’t catch a bite.

Suggest there’s a conspiracy, failure, inadequacy, a body buried…:that sells!

Does “in situ” apply outside with no forensics tent?

This isn’t about the DM, one was in the Sunday Times. They seem to be more concerned with the failings in the case of itself and the potential impact on trust in police than sensationalism.

 

[Mr X]

On the suicide theory it is an interesting option to make it look like an accident. Family members may be able to process this more easily than if it was an obvious case of suicide. IMO with close personal knowledge of this subject I think it would probably be easier to deal with an accident than a suicide. Especially for children. Accidents happen accidentally. Suicide is another story altogether

If the body is found in the River it could be an accident. There must be quite a lot of cases where suicide was counted as misadventure at the inquest rather than something like self inflicted hypoxia.

Sorry if off topic but the more I think of it the more I am moving my theory away from accident but the final inquest will say accident.

 

[mrjitty]

95% of which are resolved within days.

Some of the remaining are voluntary and some are suicides.

NB was immediately “high risk” as there was strong evidence she hadn’t intended to go missing.

BIB

OK - but how quickly do you imagine local resource scales?

It takes time to confirm she is not in the immediate area, not gone home, not gone off for a few hours.

It takes time for resource to get on site, to be organised into effective activity etc

All of this happened in the first hours. But even still, if she was bundled into a car and taken away over an hour before the alarm was raised - what could police have done differently in those first hours that would be paying off right now?

I imagine one of the things they may be doing is a gigantic trawl of camera footage and digital stuff - but that takes a lot of time

 

[ginnyw]

To be honest 3rd party criminal activity is more than likely to be pretty final too

Oh yes, I know. Doesn't bear thinking about. But I guess what I was saying was that it's hard for people to get their head around nobody being at fault, it being a tragic accident, that it even could have been avoided, perhaps, so even if they do come round to the idea that she's in the river, it has to be a shove from an irate third party that made that happen, it can't just be a terrible accident. If there's a perpetrator, there's someone to blame, to pin things on, to get angry with. I find it very, very hard to believe that somebody who was as lovely as Nicola obviously was, would incur such wrath in another person in that area that they would try to finish her off by throwing her into the water. Much, much less likely to occur than an unexpected slip down a bank. IMO. JMO.

 

[Enigmacode]

What would that evidence have been ?

Depends on where the attack happened. There may be little evidence, sadly. Did Lancs police do a fingertip search of where she was last seen in the upper field? Did they do a fingertip search by the bench? Was it fully cordoned off for forensics to examine? Or did they just concentrate on the bench area, because it was presumed that someone had just wandered off and lost their dog, or an accidental fall in the river. The police weren't aware of her last known sightings at the outset, so any evidence is long gone/contaminated and inadmissible.
If the police didn't believe it was a criminal act at the outset, then they would not have deployed forensic examiners in the critical hours she was confirmed missing.
I'm actually hoping that she is found in the river, that it is an accident, as sad as it will be. Then the family will have some closure. But an attack cannot, at such an early stage, be discounted.

 

[Davieson]

BIB

OK - but how quickly do you imagine local resource scales?

It takes time to confirm she is not in the immediate area, not gone home, not gone off for a few hours.

It takes time for resource to get on site, to be organised into effective activity etc

All of this happened in the first hours. But even still, if she was bundled into a car and taken away over an hour before the alarm was raised - what could police have done differently in those first hours that would be paying off right now?

I imagine one of the things they may be doing is a gigantic trawl of camera footage and digital stuff - but that takes a lot of time

I agree. We know they are doing the car based stuff and in a small village there is likely to be limited relevant private cameras.

 

[Mr X]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>
There was a big tide on the 24th so it could have been quite high on the 27th. The PF bloke said it was a foot higher than normal and I think the missing person was reported missing after the H high tide. If the tide did come over the Weir that could lead to the body being washed back down and over the Weir.

On the other hand it could have led to the body being deposited somewhere upstream of where the missing person entered the water.

 

[NorrisandRita]

Is there any way Nicola could have left the area not by Blackpool Lane but on the road to Myerscough College or past the garage and left at the corner towards Hambleton? Any CCTV footage on those roads?

 

[Wishingwell]

I wonder if NB has gone missing previously?
Both her partner and the police were both quick to act upon her missing. Just a thought. JMO

 

[Cuko]

What would a lab do with the bench?

As in laboratory or Labrador?