Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #17

[suzyjackson]

IMO the PA bloke was quite badly hijacked by the PF bloke in this scenario.

I don't really want to further this as I might be guilty of some sort of misdemeanour.

What is interesting is who was it who first use the term 100 percent sure. If this can be established we have the answer IMO.

Unless talking about an irrefutable a scientific fact I don't put much store in people saying they are 100% sure about something

It was obvious from the start that no one could possibly be sure she wasn't in the river unless it had dried up and there was no water left

JMO

 

[Sillybilly]

I doubt there are any. We don't really have too much of that kind of thing in the UK.
Land is either privately owned or comes under the jurisdiction of local councils, neither of whom would put up a "trail cam". There wouldn't really be much to capture ....perhaps a fox or something. Hardly worth the bother.

It's not like we've got bears, moose etc. like the USAn& Canaida have.

A trail cam is just another remote surveillance camera, battery operated, many small enough to fit in the palm of a hand and can watch everything, not just wildlife but people too.

 

[Cherwell]

Pathologist couldn’t conclusively say asphyxia or drowning

Are you sure that they wouldn't be able to ?

I think you misunderstood. bos was referring to the Libby Squire case, in which the pathologist indeed could not conclusively say asphyxia or drowning.

 

[29 Acacia Road]

Oh how differently we interpret things. I assumed the later menopause/alcohol revelation was to possibly explain depression and suicide.

I think it can be taken both ways described by you and the other poster, there may be no clear answer. It could be she did have depression and suicidal thoughts recently, but had improved recently and that day was indeed a horrible accident.

 

[Cuko]

Would they be able to tell the difference between accidental slip, intentional act or possible push if there was no obvious sign of a crime? Or would they rely on other evidence they already possess, eg recent internet searches, state of mind etc to make a best guess based on most likely scenario? Do they tend to assume accidental if no evidence for anything else (Eg toxicology).

I just hope the family gets the conclusive answers they deserve.

The post mortem will certainly show whether the person was alive or dead BEFORE they entered the water. Not sure, though, how they would determine whether entry to the water was deliberate or accidental.

 

[jk1874]

A cry for help maybe?

No one was around though and walking into waist high water would not prove much. It seems either a slip or she did something to herself before entering the water.

 

[tedtink]

PF seems to be conspicuous by his absence at the moment. After bragging he would definitely find her if she was in the river, he then concluded she was 100% not in the river and then complained he had not been privy to the sensitive background information. Can't wait to hear his excuse!

He searched upstream and down to the weir and that was it.

 

[Cherwell]

But the dog would have stayed where she fell in and it didn't.
It focused on being between the bench and the kissing gate.
Not the bench and the river.

The likely explanation is that she went out of the gate and back along the path, and went into the river further downstream.

 

[cottonweaver]

I think you misunderstood. bos was referring to the Libby Squire case, in which the pathologist indeed could not conclusively say asphyxia or drowning.

Thanks.
I really hope they can come to a firm conclusion with this one - it would bring some of the speculation to a close.

 

[Kaykedi]

PF seems to be conspicuous by his absence at the moment. After bragging he would definitely find her if she was in the river, he then concluded she was 100% not in the river and then complained he had not been privy to the sensitive background information. Can't wait to hear his excuse!

Most likely "I'm on holiday at the moment". This is what he said when he was on TV a couple of days ago

 

[Marie Bell]

Oh how differently we interpret things. I assumed the later menopause/alcohol revelation was to possibly explain depression and suicide.

Again, it's just my opinion, but I believe that if police absolutely suspected it pointed to suicide they wouldn't have specifically said that it looked so far as though it was most probably an accident; and wouldn't have gone as far as describing the sort of mechanics involved in such potential accident.

 

[Mr X]

I think it can be taken both ways described by you and the other poster, there may be no clear answer. It could be she did have depression and suicidal thoughts recently, but had improved recently and that day was indeed a horrible accident.

Another way of reading it would be if you had a heavy evening before then your judgment could be significantly impaired. Not impaired enough to prevent safe driving in the local area but impaired enough that you might have an unexpected accident especially if something was causing you extra cognitive load. Something like an online work meeting for example.

IMO it is possible the police have more data about that side of the story than anyone else and they did actually know quite a bit about the scene but it was not public information.

 

[Amonet]

Oh how differently we interpret things. I assumed the later menopause/alcohol revelation was to possibly explain depression and suicide.

I took it as just a statement of fact and more related to the Jan 10th incident and threats by people to attempt to sell salacious gossip to rags. I say "related to the Jan 10th incident" to mean that I wondered if the media would be able to find out about that, and LE simply wanted to explain it before speculation started as to the reason police went to the home.

Sometimes a piece of information might be indicative of something, but first of all it's just a piece of information no different from a piece of information such as the clothing someone was wearing when they were last seen.

 

[Mr X]

No one was around though and walking into waist high water would not prove much. It seems either a slip or she did something to herself before entering the water.

The water is definitely deeper than waist height otherwise there would not be a sign on the tree with red writing saying deep water.

 

[bradshmj10]

Why would you go into a slow moving river for suicide? How would you see yourself definitely ending it?
Unless there was an overdose or implement involved?

We don't know depth at the point where she entered the water and whether it was slow moving or not needn't necessarily matter. The water would have been very cold that morning and could have incapacitated her very quickly. I'm looking at the short time period following the incident on the 10th of January and her potential state of mind and to me these things make it more likely that it was a suicide rather than an accident.

 

[Grouse]

No one was around though and walking into waist high water would not prove much. It seems either a slip or she did something to herself before entering the water.

Witnessed at 09:10, phone on bench 09:20, phone found by 09:33 - not exactly deserted IMO.

 

[guiser]

This case has really made me go off underwater search efforts entirely. I’m sure they have been effective sometimes, but the technologies involved seem to be woefully inadequate. Look at the Kiely Rodni case - skilled dive teams and thorough LE sonar scans failed to locate a submerged SUV. I can only imagine how much harder it would be to locate a 5’3” body. False hope gets created for loved ones when intensive days long searches find nothing.

If underwater searches are so challenging and perhaps not worth the effort or risk of false hope, is there another option? I recall LE in the Kim Wall case using the novel approach of taking cadaver dogs out in boats over deep open water. That’s the way they were able to locate the vicinity of her remains. Surely a cadaver dog could have scented decomp in a shallow river before the body surfaced.

You mean like......

 

[Casseus]

Can anyone explain to a layman why it’s taken over 6 hours and counting to release the identification? Even though it’s been 3 weeks they would know quickly if it was her or not, by clothes alone. Is this out of respect for the family? I have no experience of this sort of procedure but I am confused why they haven’t released that info yet.

 

[Cuko]

I think not, I spent about 2 minutes on twitter and was sickened. I stopped reading.

I think this is just going to get bigger and bigger. I obviously hope not, and maybe in a week it will be calmer and maybe with today’s events it has reached the top of interest.

The body will be autopsied in minute detail by a Home Office forensic pathologist. If he/she is able to be conclusive about cause of death, that should go at least some way towards quelling speculation.

 

[Mr X]

We don't know depth at the point where she entered the water and whether it was slow moving or not needn't necessarily matter. The water would have been very cold that morning and could have incapacitated her very quickly. I'm looking at the short time period following the incident on the 10th of January and her potential state of mind and to me these things make it more likely that it was a suicide rather than an accident.

We have a clue about the depth because there is a sign on the tree saying deep water in red lettering. I don't think anyone would have put this beside a shallow bit of water in an otherwise harmless and shallow looking River.