Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 2023 #18

[Bogbacal2]

It's possible but extremely unlikely, and then why is willow dry, how come the people finding willow didn't see her and how did she get to the deeper water for the divers to miss her.

Same question I’ve been asking myself and trying to understand. There is such a small time frame from the time she went missing, witnesses finding her belongings and Willow, police arrive and divers in the water within 3 hours if I remember correctly. How, just how was she not seen, even by divers when the water was not rapidly moving? I’m sure they searched a long stretch of that river that morning. Baffling! I would love to see the area of water near where she was that morning to help me understand!

 

[Bibitty]

But how many of those inland waters are small rivers, vs. say lakes? I think the number would be tiny, IMO.

This is the RNLI safety messaging:

1. Cold water shock can steal the air from your lungs and leave you helpless

2. The water can be unpredictable, with waves, tides and hidden currents that can drag you out to sea in seconds

3. Around half the people who drown never expected to get wet – many get caught out by unexpected slips, trips and falls into the water.

This last point shows that around half of drownings were people just out for a walk - add it to point one for an accident in this case - and add in point 2 if NB decided to do the very short walk downstream past the weir on the riverbank to intentionally enter deeper tidal water.

 

[WAWAW]

Same question I’ve been asking myself and trying to understand. There is such a small time frame from the time she went missing, witnesses finding her belongings and Willow, police arrive and divers in the water within 3 hours if I remember correctly. How, just how was she not seen, even by divers when the water was not rapidly moving? I’m sure they searched a long stretch of that river that morning. Baffling! I would love to see the area of water near where she was that morning to help me understand!

If you go on you tube and search for curtis media and the "in river" episode he does a fairly objective video of the river..
I'll hold my hand up and say I've no idea what happened, but watching this steers me towards her entering the water intentionally further downstream after the weir.
Watch it yourself and make your own mind ul

 

[WAWAW]

This is the RNLI safety messaging:

1. Cold water shock can steal the air from your lungs and leave you helpless

2. The water can be unpredictable, with waves, tides and hidden currents that can drag you out to sea in seconds

3. Around half the people who drown never expected to get wet – many get caught out by unexpected slips, trips and falls into the water.

This last point shows that around half of drownings were people just out for a walk - add it to point one for an accident in this case - and add in point 2 if NB decided to do the very short walk downstream past the weir on the riverbank to intentionally enter deeper tidal water.

I'm leaning towards the suggestion in the final paragraph, whilst questions exist for this they are fewer than for other theories.

 

[porkypies]

It’s 300, not 60

Thank you Markoid, got my sums wrong!
All very improbable.

 

[porkypies]

*all of the below is my pondering, some ideas, and a couple hypothetical scenarios. my opinions only.*

Some things I've been rolling around in my thinker:

Nicola seemed a woman who enjoyed being fit. Perhaps she'd stop during her dog walks and her hikes to do a workout in that comfortable, familiar location. May sound far-fetched but I have friends that do this, even on walks with their dogs. They simply tie up the pet to a tree or bench or the like, put any expensive items that may fall out of pockets while doing a workout (i.e. phone) in/on the nearest place they deem safe, and get to business - jumping jacks, running in place, the like. One of my friends does this except with a full yoga routine combined with a workout she learned from her gym trainer boyfriend.

 

[porkypies]

I too see such workouts taking place along my local river, but never in knee length padded coat, and wellingtons.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

I’m not sure any of us really know how we would react in this situation until we are in it. We might think we would stay out there all night and have to be dragged home etc but we don’t have all the context as to why PA did what he did. It is not inherently unreasonable or suspicious for PA to have followed police instructions, especially as we don’t know whether, for example, those were accompanied with advice that should something terrible have happened to Nicola then PA would not want to be the one to find her, he should remain calm for the children’s sakes, etc.

Members of the public are told not to get themselves involved in investigations. “Not getting himself arrested by defying the police” is not questionable behaviour by PA.

True enough and nobody can know for sure. All I know about is myself and how I behave. I've spend entire nights out searching for my cats when they've gone missing and unbelievably have saved them from certain death on occasions when they were locked inside or fallen into places. There's no police officer in the world would 'advise' me to go sit at home and there's no court that would enforce that either so the police guidance / request was meaningless in this instance. Unless he was trespassing or breaking and entering obv. Maybe he was? We don't really know enough. JMO.

 

[NoSpoonFeeding]

It's possible but extremely unlikely, and then why is willow dry, how come the people finding willow didn't see her and how did she get to the deeper water for the divers to miss her.

It's my opinion that the science and below documentation/links are factual and the sources are reputable/widely accepted as credible.

A number of posts have described how and why drowning victims immediately, as in 5 seconds, disappear from sight and sink to the bottom. Drowning itself also only takes seconds.

I can't tell if those stating that the body should have been found right off, seen on the surface etc, dispute the science or just aren't aware of it.

This is not a personal opinion, it is known to be a fact, oxygen is depleted and the body sinks. Decomposition is also a fact and the body will remain at the bottom, longer in cold water, until the decomposition gases bring the body to the surface. All of that time submerged, the body, unless caught on something, will continue to travel downstream and/or with the tide. Also, the body can be "caught and released" during this time.
The body will not sink straight down in a moving body of water it will move with the current as it sinks.
Since there is a mountain of information/documentation available for many drowning victims not found/found months later/never recovered, and found miles downstream, why would this victim be any different?

Decomposition Changes in Bodies Recovered from Water

Recovering bodies from water is a common task for any medical examiner or coroner office. Unfortunately, there will be a significant postmortem interval before many of these remains are found. A thorough scene investigation must be undertaken to determine ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"Alternatively, a strong current or tidal activity may move the body a considerable distance from where the decedent entered the water."
"Unfortunately, there will be a significant postmortem interval before many of these remains are found."

Decomposition Changes in Bodies Recovered from Water

Recovering bodies from water is a common task for any medical examiner or coroner office. Unfortunately, there will be a significant postmortem interval before many of these remains are found. A thorough scene investigation must be undertaken to determine ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://journalofsar.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Time-Required-For-a-Drowning-Victim-to-Reach-Bottom.pdf

"It should also be remembered that, based on the laws of physics, drowning victims do not go part way down and stop once they lose positive buoyancy. They go all the way to the bottom. Emergency personnel need to be aware that drowning victims are either on the surface, moving quickly (in seconds) toward the bottom or on the bottom."

 

[Lincoln34]

I don’t think we know the name of the witness who talked to NB in top field. Is there any cctv evidence of NB that morning, apart from the door bell cctv which shows a vague image. It seems strange that none was released at the time of disappearance… which is what usually happens.
As far as I can make out, we have a witness at the school drop off but not sure if there was cctv.

It's an odd angle for a doorbell camera IMO. Not suggesting that the image isn't Nicola - I think it is - but doesn't look like doorbell footage?

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

If I remember correctly from the Ch5 interview, PA said he received a call from the school whilst he was driving to look for NB, then he rang the police, who said to return home so they could speak to him there.
If I find this quite odd... surely the police would want to go immediately to the area where Willow and phone were to investigate and help search for NB? Why would they want to see PA back at home? I was under the impression PA turned around in the car to return home as directed by LE?

That's what I thought he said too but may be incorrect and cannot be bothered to re-watch the footage.

 

[bradshmj10]

If you go on you tube and search for curtis media and the "in river" episode he does a fairly objective video of the river..
I'll hold my hand up and say I've no idea what happened, but watching this steers me towards her entering the water intentionally further downstream after the weir.
Watch it yourself and make your own mind ul

I agree that suicide is most likely when you consider a few different elements together. Firstly, the welfare check on the 10th of January which was only a few weeks before her disappearance and which was likely related to her own personal difficulties. Furthermore, a noticeable change in the morning routine as mentioned by her partner. He said, "And you know, we're always up a little bit too late sometimes and trying to get them to have their breakfast and sort all that out and then do their hair" and that "The only difference on that morning two weeks ago was that there wasn't a lot of rushing. I came down and a lot of stuff was already done. " Finally, the fact that she wasn't discovered in the relatively still water around the bench that day. At a minimum I feel all of these factors certainly lend more support to suicide rather than an accident. Either way both of these possibilities are tragic for Nicola and her family.

 

[guiser]

True enough and nobody can know for sure. All I know about is myself and how I behave. I've spend entire nights out searching for my cats when they've gone missing and unbelievably have saved them from certain death on occasions when they were locked inside or fallen into places. There's no police officer in the world would 'advise' me to go sit at home and there's no court that would enforce that either so the police guidance / request was meaningless in this instance. Unless he was trespassing or breaking and entering obv. Maybe he was? We don't really know enough. JMO.

What if the police asked you to go home to check to see if your loved one had packed a bag or suitcase?
Packed some of the kids clothes?
Taken their passport?
Left a note?
Taken jewellery or sentimental items?
Taken credit cards which might ordinarily be left at home?
Made a call from the landline?
Or for you to wait to see if any contact was made via the landline?

Would you then take the advice of the police?
Why do you assume they just wanted PA to 'sit' at home

 

[SimplyCass]

Makes one wonder in general how many people are dumped in water and then later assumed as a suicide

Generally the coroner can (or should be able to) determine if the person died of drowning or if they were deceased beforehand, as well as trauma to the bones, which would indicate if there was a struggle (like If the person fought back).

This came up most recently with the case of Kiely Rodni, a 16-year-old who drowned when she accidentally drove her car into a lake. The report said there was no sign that someone else had driven the car or there was any third party involvement, based on where she was found, the condition of her remains, etc.

 

[NoSpoonFeeding]

Makes one wonder in general how many people are dumped in water and then later assumed as a suicide

That would require gross negligence on the part of LE and the ME/forensic pathologist.

I doubt this is occurring where there are laws that apply to these circumstances (unattended, suspicious/accidental/suicides/unexpected) and require an investigation/examination by LE/ME/forensic pathologists. I think most people, in general, are aware of this and don't think that dumping a deceased person in water will be called suicide by default.

A body found in water is not presumed to be a drowning and a drowning is not determined to be a suicide without convincing evidence.
If drowning is found to be the cause of death, but there was no witness to the drowning and no evidence of a homicide, it's usually determined that the manner of death is accidental or undetermined, even if some suspect it was suicide lacking strong evidence.

"those involving poisoning or submersion were most likely to be classified as undetermined."

Undetermined manner of death. A comparison with unintentional injury, suicide, and homicide death - PubMed

Injury deaths can be grouped into four general categories: accident, homicide, suicide, and undetermined. The present study investigates the use of the "undetermined" category. External cause of death, as well as demographic and other variables, were abstracted from death certificates of the...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

CDC - Investigations and Autopsies - Coroner/Medical Examiner Laws - Public Health Law

Peruse tables with characteristics of deaths requiring investigation or autopsy in each state.

www.cdc.gov

 

[infinit]

Thank you Markoid, got my sums wrong!
All very improbable.

It's not really because that's looking at it from the perspective of how likely is a random woman to commit suicide, and for that method to be drowning. Not how likely is it that a woman found dead in water has come to be there via suicide, for which the probability will be a lot higher.

Not that I'm saying it was suicide, I doubt it will ever be determined.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

What if the police asked you to go home to check to see if your loved one had packed a bag or suitcase?
Packed some of the kids clothes?
Taken their passport?
Left a note?
Taken jewellery or sentimental items?
Taken credit cards which might ordinarily be left at home?
Made a call from the landline?
Or for you to wait to see if any contact was made via the landline?

Would you then take the advice of the police?
Why do you assume they just wanted PA to 'sit' at home

Excellent points and I had not considered this way of thinking so thank you for opening my mind up a bit.

I suppose I had got the impression from the way PA said it that it was an issue of 'we'd prefer to chat with you at home...' which sounded jarring to me but of course there could be myriad reasons.

Not sure tho, bearing in mind these specific circs, that her phone was there allegedly logged onto the call (who is this verified by?), and the dog was there, abandoned... that I wouldn't personally feel immediate urgency to know she's not been mugged or sexually assaulted and isn't half dead in a ditch before I start going home seeing if she packed her PJs and took her bank cards.

I'm still super curious for confirmation as to who 'gave' the dog and phone to PA, if that happened, as there's a real gap in the story and were the police at the site before him or after or how did that all unfold?

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

That would require gross negligence on the part of LE and the ME/forensic pathologist.

I doubt this is occurring where there are laws that apply to these circumstances (unattended, suspicious/accidental/suicides/unexpected) and require an investigation/examination by LE/ME/forensic pathologists. I think most people, in general, are aware of this and don't think that dumping a deceased person in water will be called suicide by default.

A body found in water is not presumed to be a drowning and a drowning is not determined to be a suicide without convincing evidence.
If drowning is found to be the cause of death, but there was no witness to the drowning and no evidence of a homicide, it's usually determined that the manner of death is accidental or undetermined, even if some suspect it was suicide lacking strong evidence.

"those involving poisoning or submersion were most likely to be classified as undetermined."

Undetermined manner of death. A comparison with unintentional injury, suicide, and homicide death - PubMed

Injury deaths can be grouped into four general categories: accident, homicide, suicide, and undetermined. The present study investigates the use of the "undetermined" category. External cause of death, as well as demographic and other variables, were abstracted from death certificates of the...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

CDC - Investigations and Autopsies - Coroner/Medical Examiner Laws - Public Health Law

Peruse tables with characteristics of deaths requiring investigation or autopsy in each state.

www.cdc.gov

Thanks for this info, it's interesting and helpful to know

 

[Simplistic67]

If someone was held underwater, would the body intake water just the same as an accidental drowning?
How would it go from accidental drowning to murder if no forensic evidence is available...How would a coroner distinguish the two possibilities?

 

[Simplistic67]

Do we know exactly the make and model of the car that NB drove that morning...The reason I ask is because I'm a bit miffed after looking at the doorbell image.