Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 2023 #19

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Pulling some notable quotes from the Guardian article.

PC Matthew Thackray, a police diver, said he believed Bulley fell into the water, describing a fairly steep and then vertical slope down to the river.

The water temperature would have been about 4C and felt more like freezing, he said. It is likely the river would have carried Bulley down river about a metre a second.

Two experts on cold water shock gave evidence. Prof Mike Tipton said it would have taken only “one or two breaths in of water to be a lethal dose”.

Police theorised that Bulley fell in the river because of an issue with her dog, a theory rejected by her family who called in private underwater search specialists to help in the search. They found nothing.


**
May Nicola now rest in peace.
 
I’m curious if it’s possible to determine if she could have had a seizure which caused her to lose her balance. We know now that there is no evidence of alcohol consumption, meaning she hadn’t consumed any that morning and likely had consumed any (in high amounts) the night before.

Totally MOO but if 2 weeks before, there had been an incident which led to a welfare check, we might surmise if she had been drinking again that she might have decided to quit soon after. It’s not unusual for stopping cold turkey to lead to withdrawal seizures in people who are physically dependent. I stopped cold turkey and only after the fact realised how dangerous that probably was. It’s possible to die from a seizure alone, never mind falling into water while having one. If she had ever had one in the past when quitting, it might have explained the immediate focus on falling into the water. JMO. No idea if that is something that could be determined by autopsy.

Of note, she was taking prescribed propranolol, which has a number of uses, of course, but is used for easing symptoms of alcohol detox.
 
I’m curious if it’s possible to determine if she could have had a seizure which caused her to lose her balance. We know now that there is no evidence of alcohol consumption, meaning she hadn’t consumed any that morning and likely had consumed any (in high amounts) the night before.

Totally MOO but if 2 weeks before, there had been an incident which led to a welfare check, we might surmise if she had been drinking again that she might have decided to quit soon after. It’s not unusual for stopping cold turkey to lead to withdrawal seizures in people who are physically dependent. I stopped cold turkey and only after the fact realised how dangerous that probably was. It’s possible to die from a seizure alone, never mind falling into water while having one. If she had ever had one in the past when quitting, it might have explained the immediate focus on falling into the water. JMO. No idea if that is something that could be determined by autopsy.

If a person is alcohol dependent, which has not been stated about NB, then sudden cessation of drinking or 'withdrawal' certainly can result in the most horrific instability and 'the DTs' = delerium tremens and could explain bizarre and erratic behaviour.

I don't know how anyone could ever know if this was happening to NB unless they were fully aware of the amounts she was drinking on a daily basis over time and therefore it could be surmised that having no alcohol in her system would naturally result in withdrawal. I don't suppose anyone knows.
 
Hmm, evidence from members of public a bit jumbled - haven’t found where in sequence of events Penny Fletcher called Susan Jones
 
Bizarre how caravan site owner’s daughter in law reportedly said “that’s Nikki’s phone & Nikki has gone missing” when Penny the owner contacted her. NB wasn’t known to be missing at that point - doesn’t seem credible
 
I’m curious if it’s possible to determine if she could have had a seizure which caused her to lose her balance. We know now that there is no evidence of alcohol consumption, meaning she hadn’t consumed any that morning and likely had consumed any (in high amounts) the night before.

Totally MOO but if 2 weeks before, there had been an incident which led to a welfare check, we might surmise if she had been drinking again that she might have decided to quit soon after. It’s not unusual for stopping cold turkey to lead to withdrawal seizures in people who are physically dependent. I stopped cold turkey and only after the fact realised how dangerous that probably was. It’s possible to die from a seizure alone, never mind falling into water while having one. If she had ever had one in the past when quitting, it might have explained the immediate focus on falling into the water. JMO. No idea if that is something that could be determined by autopsy.

Of note, she was taking prescribed propranolol, which has a number of uses, of course, but is used for easing symptoms of alcohol detox.
There is no evidence to suggest she had any alcohol at all the night before she drowned

 
Bizarre how caravan site owner’s daughter in law reportedly said “that’s Nikki’s phone & Nikki has gone missing” when Penny the owner contacted her. NB wasn’t known to be missing at that point - doesn’t seem credible
A retired care home worker, Susan Jones, was called shortly after 10am by Ms Fletcher and informed that a dog was tied to a bench near the river.
In turn, she contacted her husband Roger who was out walking their own dog, to ask him to check and identify its owners.
Mr Jones found Willow and Ms Bulley’s mobile phone, and asked his wife to make the 15-minute journey towards him to help establish who owned the missing possessions.
Once she checked the phone, she told the court that it “lit up” and her husband was able to identify the picture of Paul and his family.

 
Bizarre how caravan site owner’s daughter in law reportedly said “that’s Nikki’s phone & Nikki has gone missing” when Penny the owner contacted her. NB wasn’t known to be missing at that point - doesn’t seem credible

I think the timeline on Lancs Live is a bit choppy as they are reporting each witness individually. Piecing them together I get:

* Penny Fletcher discovers Willow and phones the vet listed on the tag on her collar but they can't help identify her. She then calls over Roger Jones who is walking his own dog.
* Roger Jones finds Nicola's phone but can't operate it. He speaks with his wife Susan Jones who walks across from their house to help with the phone.
* Susan Jones then meets Annemarie Fletcher who recognises Nicola from the lock screen and calls the school and Paul.
* Paul comes to the river to collect Willow.
* Sometime after that, Penny Fletcher gets back from her appointment and speaks to Annemarie Fletcher, who fills her in on what has happened.
 
That testimony from Helen oneill is very interesting. She heard a scream at 9.35 (I believe someone else heard this), from day one the police have always maintained Willow and the phone were found at 9.33. There might be no evidence of 3rd party involvement, but there's something very odd there with the timings. This is starting to open up a lot of questions re the narrative being given
 
That testimony from Helen oneill is very interesting. She heard a scream at 9.35 (I believe someone else heard this), from day one the police have always maintained Willow and the phone were found at 9.33. There might be no evidence of 3rd party involvement, but there's something very odd there with the timings. This is starting to open up a lot of questions re the narrative being given

Police give timeline of Nicola Bulley’s final movements​

Rebecca Smith, Detective Superintendent of Lancashire Constabulary has given the court a detailed timeline of Ms Bulley’s final movements, reports my colleague Tara Cobham.
Ms Bulley left her home at 8.26am on 27 January and travelled the eight-minute journey to St Michaels on Wyre school.
Shortly after, Ms Bulley walks towards the river path and stops to play in a field by the river with her dog Willow at around 8.46am. She sends and receives a number of messages, including an email to her boss at Exclusive Mortgages, a WhatsApp message from her sister regarding a spa day, and a Facebook message to Lucie Musella arranging a playdate.
Claire Chesham is estimated to have had her final sighting of Ms Bulley at 9.10am.
Ms Bulley last interacted with her phone eight minutes later. Ms Bulley received another WhatsApp message about the spa day from her sister, Louise Cunningham, within the same minute of that last interaction.
Ms Bulley’s phone was shown to be in the area of the bench, where it was later found along with her dog, at 9.20am. Police believe it remains in the same place until it is moved at 10.33am by those trying to find out who the phone belongs to, including Susan and Roger Jones.
Ms Bulley’s husband Paul Ansell has made numerous unanswered calls to Ms Bulley during this time, including a message reading: “Have you got lost?”
He receives a call from the school telling him about Willow and Ms Bulley’s phone at 10.54am. A couple of minutes later he leaves the house and calls Anne-Marie, before calling 999 and reporting Ms Bulley as missing. He arrives in the area of the river at around 11.10

 
Det Supt Rebecca Smith, who investigated the disappearance, said Ms Bulley's Fitbit watch and Mercedes car keys were recovered along with her body.

Police digital specialist Det Con Keith Greenhalgh said the Fitbit stopped recording steps beyond 09.30 on the day Ms Bulley vanished.

He said: "My initial thoughts were that the device lost power on February 4th."

Analysis of her iPhone and Fitbit watch data suggests she "very possibly" entered the water at 09.22 on 27 January, he added.

 

Police offer explanation for heart rate data recorded sporadically on FitBit​

Holly Evans reports:
As part of their investigation DC Greenhalgh, who works for the digital media investigation unit, retraced Ms Bulley’s suspected route with an iPhone to compare the data found on GPS satellites.
Her phone was recovered intact from the bench and there was no sign that it had entered the water.
Her FitBit was recovered from her body in the water, with Lancashire Constabulary later gaining access by using her email address. It is believed that the Fitbit had lost power on February 4 and that no further steps had been recorded beyond 9.30am on January 27.
The inquest heard that a possible explanation for heart rate data being recorded sporadically in the days after her disappearance was the movement of water passing between the FitBit and Ms Bulley’s wrist. Subsequent testing on inanimate objects has provided similar results when there was movement in the water.

 
Unlikely that is what it means
No according to this she very possibly entered the water at 9.22am - from the digital expert under timings Nicola Bulley inquest latest updates as two day hearing continues

What I was referring to before was the fact that they managed to extract data from her Fitbit by whatever means
 
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Is anyone else thinking this is smelling of a cover up or they want to brush it all under the carpet. From what I read they want us to believe she passed around 9.20 after some accident with her dog. However, from today's evidence her fitbit continued recording steps to 9.30,a scream coming from this area by two different people around 9.35 and there's reports of a mysterious man in the vicinity that hasn't been mentioned before. I go back to the original police time line that indicated Willow and the phone were found at 9.33,surely this all points to something happening around that time and not to an accident at 9.20.
For the record I sincerely hope this can be established as an accident for the sake of the kids, but if someone is responsible for this then they need to be brought to justice
 
Is anyone else thinking this is smelling of a cover up or they want to brush it all under the carpet. From what I read they want us to believe she passed around 9.20 after some accident with her dog. However, from today's evidence her fitbit continued recording steps to 9.30,a scream coming from this area by two different people around 9.35 and there's reports of a mysterious man in the vicinity that hasn't been mentioned before. I go back to the original police time line that indicated Willow and the phone were found at 9.33,surely this all points to something happening around that time and not to an accident at 9.20.
For the record I sincerely hope this can be established as an accident for the sake of the kids, but if someone is responsible for this then they need to be brought to justice
No.
There is absolutely nothing to suggest a cover up of any description, shape or form and no evidence submitted today even slightly leans in that direction.
She entered the water alive, she drowned and she died and the movement of the river moved her body downstream.

No indication ‘whatsoever’ of third-party involvement, says senior officer​

Rebecca Smith, Detective Superintendent of Lancashire Constabulary, was also asked if there was any indication of third-party involvement in Ms Bulley’s death, to which she replied: “None whatsoever.”
Ms Smith listed the items recovered with Ms Bulley’s body including her FitBit watch and a set of Mercedes car keys. She added Ms Bulley was not using headphones that day to listen to her Teams call.
Ms Smith told the court Ms Bulley dialled into her work Teams call at 9.01am, which Ms Bulley did not need to speak on, so she was muted. This call ended at 9.30am but she stayed logged in until 10.32am.

Nicola was a ‘holiday swimmer’ so ‘almost impossible’ to swim against fast current​

The coroner has said Ms Bulley was a “holiday swimmer”. It has previously been established the water flow on 27 January was a metre per second.
Therefore, Ms Dennison Wilkins said it would have been “highly likely to be almost impossible to swim against the current”.
The coroner said Ms Bulley would also be making this decision while trying to hold her breathe and not drown

Nicola Bulley may have had to hold breath for ‘one of two seconds at best'​

Nicola Bulley may have only been able to hold her breath for “one or two seconds at best” in the river, an inquest into her death heard.
Cold water expert Dr Patrick Morgan said: “(After falling in) the heart rate goes excessively high, the blood pressure surges excessively high.
“The heart pumps no blood, and the brain switches off. The potential conscious time here quoted are optimistic... it is potentially shorter.
“On the occasion that the individual has taken that initial gasp on the surface of the water and then gone below, the duration would be 10 seconds that you could hold your breath, and very likely one or two seconds at best.”

Nicola Bulley died from drowning, inquest told​

Missing mother-of-two Nicola Bulley died from drowning and was alive when she entered the water, the inquest into her death heard.
Home Office pathologist Alison Armour, who carried out the post-mortem examination on the body of Ms Bulley, 45, said the evidence of water in her lungs and stomach led her to conclude the cause of death was drowning, and there was no other “third party” involved in her death.

Nicola could have entered a state of ‘very rapid incapacitaion'​

The doctors said Nicola Bulley could have entered a state of “very rapid incapacitation”.
They said: “In the worst case scenario, you’ve replaced the air in the lungs with water, then you don’t have that oxygen available to you.
“So then you might have as little as 25 seconds of consciousness. But not all of that might be useful consciousness.”
The coroner summarised: “So the best case scenario is, someone of Nikki’s build and weight and in a water temperature of 3.6 degrees, would have approximately 48 seconds before losing consciousness and in worst case scenario it’s 1 to 2 seconds.”


Doctors explain how body entering cold water can result in drowning​

Professor Michael Tipton and Dr Patrick Morgan are giving evidence on how the body reacts to entering cold water and drowning.
They explained cold water shock describes the initial responses to immersion in cold water, which involves a rapid fall in body temperature, increased blood pressure and uncontrollable breathing.
When someone initially enters cold water there is an “uncontrollable breathe of up to two or three litres”, they said, adding that at 3.6 degrees, the water would have “provoked a particularly powerful response”.
In Ms Bulley’s case, at a weight of around 50kg, she would have inhaled one to two litres at that temperature, they explained.
Hence, they concluded, “It would only take one to two breathes to cross the lethal dose into drowning.”
The lethal does is around 2 litres of water for someone of that weight, with the initial gasp potentially taking you into that territory.

‘Almost freezing’ water was flowing ‘twice as fast’ on day Nicola died​

The court is now being shown a video of the section of river where Nicola Bulley was last thought to be on its bank.
Mr Thackray is in the video standing in the middle of the river and saying the stream is currently pushing him downstream at “walking pace”.
The water on the 27 January was flowing at a faster pace, he said, “twice as fast”. The water was 4C on the day in question, he said, “very cold, almost freezing”.
“If you fell in accidentally, cold water shock would have probably taken effect - which causes muscles to seize and you can’t swim properly.”
 
No.
There is absolutely nothing to suggest a cover up of any description, shape or form and no evidence submitted today even slightly leans in that direction.
She entered the water alive, she drowned and she died and the movement of the river moved her body downstream.

No indication ‘whatsoever’ of third-party involvement, says senior officer​

Rebecca Smith, Detective Superintendent of Lancashire Constabulary, was also asked if there was any indication of third-party involvement in Ms Bulley’s death, to which she replied: “None whatsoever.”
Ms Smith listed the items recovered with Ms Bulley’s body including her FitBit watch and a set of Mercedes car keys. She added Ms Bulley was not using headphones that day to listen to her Teams call.
Ms Smith told the court Ms Bulley dialled into her work Teams call at 9.01am, which Ms Bulley did not need to speak on, so she was muted. This call ended at 9.30am but she stayed logged in until 10.32am.

Nicola was a ‘holiday swimmer’ so ‘almost impossible’ to swim against fast current​

The coroner has said Ms Bulley was a “holiday swimmer”. It has previously been established the water flow on 27 January was a metre per second.
Therefore, Ms Dennison Wilkins said it would have been “highly likely to be almost impossible to swim against the current”.
The coroner said Ms Bulley would also be making this decision while trying to hold her breathe and not drown

Nicola Bulley may have had to hold breath for ‘one of two seconds at best'​

Nicola Bulley may have only been able to hold her breath for “one or two seconds at best” in the river, an inquest into her death heard.
Cold water expert Dr Patrick Morgan said: “(After falling in) the heart rate goes excessively high, the blood pressure surges excessively high.
“The heart pumps no blood, and the brain switches off. The potential conscious time here quoted are optimistic... it is potentially shorter.
“On the occasion that the individual has taken that initial gasp on the surface of the water and then gone below, the duration would be 10 seconds that you could hold your breath, and very likely one or two seconds at best.”

Nicola Bulley died from drowning, inquest told​

Missing mother-of-two Nicola Bulley died from drowning and was alive when she entered the water, the inquest into her death heard.
Home Office pathologist Alison Armour, who carried out the post-mortem examination on the body of Ms Bulley, 45, said the evidence of water in her lungs and stomach led her to conclude the cause of death was drowning, and there was no other “third party” involved in her death.

Nicola could have entered a state of ‘very rapid incapacitaion'​

The doctors said Nicola Bulley could have entered a state of “very rapid incapacitation”.
They said: “In the worst case scenario, you’ve replaced the air in the lungs with water, then you don’t have that oxygen available to you.
“So then you might have as little as 25 seconds of consciousness. But not all of that might be useful consciousness.”
The coroner summarised: “So the best case scenario is, someone of Nikki’s build and weight and in a water temperature of 3.6 degrees, would have approximately 48 seconds before losing consciousness and in worst case scenario it’s 1 to 2 seconds.”


Doctors explain how body entering cold water can result in drowning​

Professor Michael Tipton and Dr Patrick Morgan are giving evidence on how the body reacts to entering cold water and drowning.
They explained cold water shock describes the initial responses to immersion in cold water, which involves a rapid fall in body temperature, increased blood pressure and uncontrollable breathing.
When someone initially enters cold water there is an “uncontrollable breathe of up to two or three litres”, they said, adding that at 3.6 degrees, the water would have “provoked a particularly powerful response”.
In Ms Bulley’s case, at a weight of around 50kg, she would have inhaled one to two litres at that temperature, they explained.
Hence, they concluded, “It would only take one to two breathes to cross the lethal dose into drowning.”
The lethal does is around 2 litres of water for someone of that weight, with the initial gasp potentially taking you into that territory.

‘Almost freezing’ water was flowing ‘twice as fast’ on day Nicola died​

The court is now being shown a video of the section of river where Nicola Bulley was last thought to be on its bank.
Mr Thackray is in the video standing in the middle of the river and saying the stream is currently pushing him downstream at “walking pace”.
The water on the 27 January was flowing at a faster pace, he said, “twice as fast”. The water was 4C on the day in question, he said, “very cold, almost freezing”.
“If you fell in accidentally, cold water shock would have probably taken effect - which causes muscles to seize and you can’t swim properly.”
How come then steps are still being recorded at 9.30 if she'd already passed by then, and then two different people hear screams around 9.35.The people could be wrong but the Fitbit data isn't lying, she was alive at 9.30 when we are being told she was dead. Interestingly again on her heart rate monitoring it says it peaked at 9.22,they don't say when it stopped though as that is critical to the timings. If as they've indicated she was alive at 9.30,and screams were heard around that time then something happened around the bench area, nothing else makes sense
 
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