WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #6

[Calliope]

I think if they both were at the house, then mom would have kept knocking. Four knocks just isn't enough when you're a mom stranded in the middle of the night in the dark at a beach.

And if they were both at the door, and both fine, and just being polite and not wanting to wake anyone, what would they do then? Go back down to the beach? I don't think so. They'd have headed to the next house with lights on. But we know that Az, at least, went back down to the beach. He had to have a compelling reason to do that rather than go on to the next house with a light.

So if it was Azriel knocking, then mom was in distress, intoxicated, drowning, brain event, swept out of the van, swept away in the water, passed out, whatever.

If it was Shantina knocking, then Azriel was in distress, drowning, asthma, swept out of van, swept away in water, whatever. It could be she was in a panic and felt compelled to run back to him after four knocks. We know he did, in fact, drown, so it's logical and reasonable that she could have been panicking and gave up after four knocks.

But I also think it's likely she was intoxicated or having a brain event, so I don't think she was running around at all. I think it was Az, not knowing what the heck to do, that he gave up after four knocks, and in a panic ran back to her, and drowned.

Who do you think was more likely knocking, Calliope? I've been over this in my head so many times it makes me crazy lol.

The most logical one would be Azriel. I don't think both were there, if those knocks did indeed have something to do with this.

 

[SMK]

. . . But we know that Az, at least, went back down to the beach. He had to have a compelling reason to do that rather than go on to the next house with a light.. . . (snipped from BeanE's quoted post, above)
I agree, and have always felt it must be the child knocking and leaving. But yes, that he returned to the beach, showed this was not an asking for directions thing, something was going terribly wrong. You get so frustrated, if only the knock had been answered, he would still be here, and we would know what happened....

 

[LCoastMom]

How am I dismissing their credibility?

I think LE is right - they think there was no foul play involved. They've stated that Az's drowning was accidental. They spent time searching the water and beaches, and the dogs could not track any scent of her getting off the beach. They think she drowned.

I think the person who found the items did find them on the beach, and found them together. None of us knows how close together the items were found. As far as I know, nobody - the finder, LE, the Deputy Sheriff - has said what they meant by the items being found "together." One foot? Five feet? Ten yards?

I've already stated my belief about what happened to them, many times.

I know the ME said accidental drowning but if the TOX report comes back showing anything was in Az's system - that accident could change in a second...

Also I heard that LE is calling this whole thing highly or very suspicious, but because they have no evidence that a crime has taken place they are saying no foul play.... that must mean if they find any evidence of a crime - that will change too...

Originally Thurston Co Sheriff said they believe the items were washed out of the trunk area/back of the van because the back hatch was left open through a tide cycle. I guess they aren't saying that anymore.

If a shoe, a ball, a jug and an inhaler managed to be found, where is her overnight case and purse?

I can't find it in my heart to think she did this to Az.

Did Robb remove his time line? I was never able to link to it, recently I link to a page of files...

 

[LCoastMom]

The most logical one would be Azriel. I don't think both were there, if those knocks did indeed have something to do with this.

At 1am the tide was already in, would he have been able to get to the "beach" or would he have been walking thru a high tide? That doesn't sound like it is possible to walk through.

If he came from the beach he would have been wet, shouldn't the dogs have been able to pick up a sent or something??

Sorry about the prior post I have been a day late and behind you guys the whole way. I wrote it yesterday and didn't realize it didn't post.

 

[RubyRed]

I just wanted to say you can have your alarm set and still activate it yourself to go off.
If it was Azriel knocking it would have scared the crap out of him because they are loud.
If it was a level headed adult with him, they would think, okay the alarm is going off,
so someone is home and the police will be here soon. They would have persistently tried
to get help, if you are desperate you do what you have to do. I have always felt if it was
one of them getting help it was Azriel. For whatever reason I do not think Shantina was
able to. What is perplexing is the dogs did not pick up a scent, yet what a strange coincidence
the homeowner activated the alarm, the same night Azriel and Shantina go missing.That would
be able to be proven because all alarm companies keep records and can tell you when your
alarm started and when it stopped.

 

[Jules71]

it is my understanding that that house is for sale, and empty, however, I could be wrong. This info was posted earlier by another poster, who linked to a real estate agency who had it on their site........

The house that is for sale is the one on the corner lot with the circular driveway and tennis court. It is next to the Grimmer's. It is not the house at the top of the stairs. Maybe those people were not home or out of town or something. Would be nice to know.

 

[slowpoke]

I just wanted to say you can have your alarm set and still activate it yourself to go off.
If it was Azriel knocking it would have scared the crap out of him because they are loud.
If it was a level headed adult with him, they would think, okay the alarm is going off,
so someone is home and the police will be here soon. They would have persistently tried
to get help, if you are desperate you do what you have to do. I have always felt if it was
one of them getting help it was Azriel. For whatever reason I do not think Shantina was
able to. What is perplexing is the dogs did not pick up a scent, yet what a strange coincidence
the homeowner activated the alarm, the same night Azriel and Shantina go missing.That would
be able to be proven because all alarm companies keep records and can tell you when your
alarm started and when it stopped.

Am I understanding your post in that your interpretation is that Mr. Grimmer made the alarm sound off after hearing the knocking noises?

I took the news account to mean that Mr. Grimmer set the alarm system to 'On' (as opposed to setting it off--sounding the alarm). Then he peeked out the closed front door to see if he could see anyone, but didn't.

Also, with my own home alarm system I do not subscribe to the service that alerts the alarm company. It will just sound off to hopefully scare away any intruder. The Grimmers may have that service, just pointing out that not everyone does.

It does seem like too much of a coincidence, however, as far as we know there were no footprints nor scent of either SS or AC noted around the home.

This case is so puzzling.

 

[Jules71]

I just wanted to say you can have your alarm set and still activate it yourself to go off.
If it was Azriel knocking it would have scared the crap out of him because they are loud.
If it was a level headed adult with him, they would think, okay the alarm is going off,
so someone is home and the police will be here soon. They would have persistently tried
to get help, if you are desperate you do what you have to do. I have always felt if it was
one of them getting help it was Azriel. For whatever reason I do not think Shantina was
able to. What is perplexing is the dogs did not pick up a scent, yet what a strange coincidence
the homeowner activated the alarm, the same night Azriel and Shantina go missing.That would
be able to be proven because all alarm companies keep records and can tell you when your
alarm started and when it stopped.

When I first read the homeowner activated the alarm - to me it meant they made the alarm sound - and in that case their alarm company or police would have called to see if everything was ok, right? And that definitely could have scared a child away.

Others are thinking activating their alarm is meaning they didn't have it set originally but once they heard the knocking, they set it.

I wonder which it is? If it was the first, the police did not know anything about Shantina being in that area at that time. It wasn't until the van was found that they suspected a possible connection to the knocking at the Grimmer's.

ETA: Slowpoke - we both posted the same thing at the same time. Great minds...

 

[Jules71]

snipped for space

It does seem like too much of a coincidence, however, as far as we know there were no footprints nor scent of either SS or AC noted around the home.

This case is so puzzling.

I agree - I have always thought it was too coincidental for it to not be connected. So if no footprints or scent was found - what does that tell us? Either 1) the dogs are wrong and ground was not conducive to making footprints. Or 2) It was someone else who knocked. They could be related to Shantina and Az, or a completely random thing (too coincidental for me).

If it was #2, why would they run off? If it was an adult that needed help or to alert someone of trouble - they would not run off. MOO. Unless something sinister was taking place that involved this person and they panicked not wanting to get in trouble.

 

[SMK]

I read that when Mr. G (and his wife) heard the 4 loud knocks or "pounding", Mr. G "activated the alarm system" which I took to mean, turned it on, just in case. But as they reported the pounding only after the van was found, and they had consequently made a mental connection, I do not think the alarm went off, nor that any police responded. This was my understanding. In fact, one would think that if the alarm DID sound, and police responded, then looking around, they would likely see if anyone had run to the beach, and would have seen the van, perhaps poor Azriel running and frightened.....

 

[AmandaReckonwith]

From the top of the cliff, and from inside the homes on Island View Court on the water side,
you can't really see the beach below.

 

[PaulR]

If Az and/or SS were knocking on doors, why did no other homeowner report hearing or seeing anything?

 

[sherlockh]

I just had a thought that might sound a bit far fetched but I thought I post it anyway Whenever I hear somebody say 'bang bang' I think of gunshots. Would it be possible that they heard gunshots coming from the beach below their house? Could they mistakenly thought that the sounds were from somebody knocking? To me that would explain why there were 'only' 4 knocks, and why Shantina was never found. Maybe there was foul play and she was shot? Just a thought I had.

 

[PaulR]

I just had a thought that might sound a bit far fetched but I thought I post it anyway Whenever I hear somebody say 'bang bang' I think of gunshots. Would it be possible that they heard gunshots coming from the beach below their house? Could they mistakenly thought that the sounds were from somebody knocking? To me that would explain why there were 'only' 4 knocks, and why Shantina was never found. Maybe there was foul play and she was shot? Just a thought I had.

IMHO gunshots sound very different from knocks. Gunshots would also have been heard by the other people who lived in that neighborhood.

 

[RubyRed]

Am I understanding your post in that your interpretation is that Mr. Grimmer made the alarm sound off after hearing the knocking noises?

I took the news account to mean that Mr. Grimmer set the alarm system to 'On' (as opposed to setting it off--sounding the alarm). Then he peeked out the closed front door to see if he could see anyone, but didn't.

Also, with my own home alarm system I do not subscribe to the service that alerts the alarm company. It will just sound off to hopefully scare away any intruder. The Grimmers may have that service, just pointing out that not everyone does.

It does seem like too much of a coincidence, however, as far as we know there were no footprints nor scent of either SS or AC noted around the home.

This case is so puzzling.

When I first read the homeowner activated the alarm - to me it meant they made the alarm sound - and in that case their alarm company or police would have called to see if everything was ok, right? And that definitely could have scared a child away.

Others are thinking activating their alarm is meaning they didn't have it set originally but once they heard the knocking, they set it.

I wonder which it is? If it was the first, the police did not know anything about Shantina being in that area at that time. It wasn't until the van was found that they suspected a possible connection to the knocking at the Grimmer's.

ETA: Slowpoke - we both posted the same thing at the same time. Great minds...

I interpreted it to mean they activated the sound on it, when they heard the noises. If they did the alarm company calls to see if there is a problem. They usually ask for the verbal password that only the homeowner would have. That is so a perp can't answer the phone and say everything is okay, if it is not. You can also push the panic button on the alarm with or without it being set. You have a brief period of time where you have to put your code in to stop it, or else they call. If the alarm company is not satisfied, they notify the police.If the alarm was set just opening a door,it would trigger it to sound.

If he was just setting the alarm when he heard the noises, the security company knows exactly what time you set your alarm. Records are kept everytime you activate it , deactivate it. You can also keep the motion
activation off( within the home) yet have the perimeter activated ( doors, windows)

If it was an alarm without any security company involved, I do not think it
can be traced. We would have to take their word for it.

 

[BeanE]

I know the ME said accidental drowning but if the TOX report comes back showing anything was in Az's system - that accident could change in a second...

Also I heard that LE is calling this whole thing highly or very suspicious, but because they have no evidence that a crime has taken place they are saying no foul play.... that must mean if they find any evidence of a crime - that will change too...

That is true that if the tox reports come back with anything it may change, but for now what we have is accidental drowning as Azriel's COD and no indications from the ME of any different expectations.

LE said Shantina and Az's disappearance was suspicious (never highly or very that I saw), but only until about March 18. Since that timeframe they have consistently said that there is no evidence of a crime, and no evidence of foul play.

 

[BeanE]

My understanding is that they turned the alarm on, rather than sounded it off, and that LE didn't come until the Grimmers called them later in the day.

I'll see if I can dig up how and when LE came to the house or were notifed later on today, or if anybody has it handy, could you please link it in? If they sounded the alarm, that would certainly account for only four knocks and then leaving.

 

[BeanE]

If Az and/or SS were knocking on doors, why did no other homeowner report hearing or seeing anything?

Well we know Az went back to the beach if it was him knocking. That's why I'm thinking he had a compelling reason, such as SS being in distress, to return to the beach rather than go to the next home or two with a light on.

Nobody reported any other persons or activities or noises.

 

[SMK]

That is true that if the tox reports come back with anything it may change, but for now what we have is accidental drowning as Azriel's COD and no indications from the ME of any different expectations.

LE said Shantina and Az's disappearance was suspicious (never highly or very that I saw), but only until about March 18. Since that timeframe they have consistently said that there is no evidence of a crime, and no evidence of foul play.

Hobert Pannkuk, a reserve sheriff’s deputy who was serving as the search commander, said a Coast Guard helicopter had assisted with an air search of Puget Sound on Monday, but the windy weather prohibited a helicopter search today.
Mealy cautioned that investigators aren’t assuming that Smiley and Carver drowned. He said the disappearances are “very suspicious,” but they aren’t ruling out any possibilities, including that she and her son left the area on foot, or that Smiley left the area safely with her son and does not want to be found.
http://www.theolympian.com/2010/03/16/1174731/clues-still-scarce-3-days-after.html

Mealy said there is some indication that Smiley might have fallen and hurt her knee at the Martin Way Diner. Her son apparently told one of the residents of the home on 46th Avenue that his mother had hurt her knee. Thurston County Chief Criminal Deputy James Chamberlain said Monday that the residents of the home on 46th Avenue have told investigators that Smiley seemed out of sorts, but no more than would be normal for someone who was lost on an unfamiliar road.
Mealy called the disappearance of Smiley and her son "very suspicious."http://www.tdn.com/news/state-and-regional/article_6c489098-3129-11df-8778-001cc4c002e0.html

 

[PaulR]

LE said Shantina and Az's disappearance was suspicious (never highly or very that I saw), but only until about March 18. Since that timeframe they have consistently said that there is no evidence of a crime, and no evidence of foul play.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/03/16/1174731/clues-still-scarce-3-days-after.html

http://www.tdn.com/news/state-and-regional/article_6c489098-3129-11df-8778-001cc4c002e0.html

Both of those articles were published before the 18th... when Az's body was found.