2021 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

[Lexiintoronto]

Seek shelter if you literally hear a freight train - that's the tornado coming in! Stay safe and dry and I hope you are able to retain power!!!

I didn’t know that tornados sound like trains! Thank you, I learned something.

I don’t understand it, but the sound wasn’t coming from the northwest with Elsa, it was travelling southwest. Maybe the outer part of the swirl pattern. I haven’t heard any confirmations yet.

No one hurt or any damages that I know of.

 

[PayrollNerd]

A little messy off the coast of Jax….

Tropical system may pop-up near Florida

An old frontal boundary has been hanging out over the SE U.S. for the past couple of days and it looks like we could see a little spin-up move off the coast of NE Florida this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is now upping the chances to 30% for development by Sunday.

 

[PayrollNerd]

SWFL may get some rain tomorrow and it's a bit drizzly here this morning. At least it's clearing the pollen out of the air.

Tropical disturbance to bring more storms to Florida (msn.com)
The National Hurricane Center is now calling a disturbance off of Florida’s east coast Invest 90L. The chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone is now up to 40%. It is over some warm water and conditions are becoming somewhat favorable for development.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hurricane Season Could Be Worse Than Expected With More Storms Than Previously Predicted (msn.com)

According to a news release from the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, forecasters are predicting that there will be 15 to 21 named storms, which are categorized as having wind speeds of 39 mph or greater, and seven to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).

Of the seven to 10 possible hurricanes, the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that three to five of them could become category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Well, right on time...... August in FL. Hopefully, they'll both be fish spinners.

Two Areas We're Watching for Possible Tropical Development (msn.com)

 

[anneg]

Invest 94L now has 70% chance of cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Chances Increasing of Two Tropical Developments This Week

A second tropical wave identified by the NHC for development Sunday evening in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Invest 93L was located midway between the Cabo Verde Island and the Lesser Antilles. Conditions appeared only “marginally” favorable for development, but at the time still had a “medium” chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next five days. Probabilities had increased some since Saturday, but the system changed little in organization Sunday.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Invest 94L now has 70% chance of cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Invest 94L is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, where NHC forecasters say tropical storm warnings may be required with a “shorter-than-normal” lead time.

The disturbance is then likely to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday, then near Hispaniola by the middle of the week. Gusty winds, heavy rain and flooding are possible in these areas from Invest 94L, although the location and magnitude of these potential impacts won’t become clearer until the system matures into a cyclone.

Potential Paths:

Chances Increasing of Two Tropical Developments This Week

 

[PayrollNerd]

Looks like we will have a rain event here next week.

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NHC has initiated advisories on "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six" (#PTC6), which has winds of 35 mph & could strengthen some as it moves into the Caribbean. Flash flooding is the primary concern for Puerto Rico & Hispaniola. PTC6 will near Cuba, Bahamas, & Florida later this week.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Glad I got my oak trees trimmed yesterday. Just in time for the storms to start blowing in. Now if the county would get here soon before the twigs blow all around. Most of the logs have been picked up. Good firewood once it dries out.

Picked up 4 more gallons of water to have on hand. Should probably bag up some ice cubes too and put them in my little chest freezer.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Latest from Tropical Tidbits. The mountainous islands may break up the storm but not always.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Fred finally becomes 6th named storm of season

 

[anneg]

Latest on T.D. Fred from the National Hurricane Center

 

[PayrollNerd]

Fred doesn’t seem like he’s going to do much this weekend other than flood everything. I had another dead branch fall out of my oak tree in the afternoon storm yesterday. Lightening and thunder this week has been greater than usual. Now that other storm behind Fred, that is something to watch.

 

[PayrollNerd]

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Left to Right:
1. Disheveled Fred hung up over central Cuba, having tracked more west than forecast, could actually see yet another center reformation and throw the current forecast cone off. It has already been shifted west. There is also a small chance that Fred disintegrates altogether over Cuba, but that outcome is not the current best educated guess.
2. A convectively active tropical wave not expected to develop or at least with only very low odds of doing so, but will enhance rain and wind throughout its passage.
3. Tropical Depression 7 and very likely soon to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Grace. NHC presently forecasts Grace to follow a similar track as Fred has, but with less land interaction, and thus potentially better odds of more significant strengthening.

Both systems are expected to impact the northern and eastern Gulf.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hope everyone in the panhandle of FL is on high ground. The storm surge can be deadly even if the winds aren’t high.

Fred prompts tropical storm warning for Florida Panhandle; heavy rains, dangerous storm surge expected

 

[anneg]

National Hurricane Center: Henri. It would be nice if it would make a turn away from the east coast...

 

[anneg]

And here's Hurricane Grace:

 

[PayrollNerd]

The water is always, always, always the first danger. It happens so very fast and so many are caught off guard.

Tropical Depression Fred: Around 35 people are unaccounted for after flooding in western North Carolina - CNN

There were about 35 people unaccounted for Wednesday evening in Haywood County, North Carolina, following flooding that was caused by Tropical Depression Fred, according to an update from the county's emergency services.
Several people were located safe and reunited with their families but several others were added to the list of unaccounted for individuals throughout the day as loved ones called in, officials said.

The Pigeon River in Haywood County peaked at 19.6 feet late Tuesday, according to county EMS Director Travis Donaldson.
Sheriff Greg Christopher said the department started getting reports about high water and deputies on Tuesday afternoon and began to evacuate residents.
"As the water level began to rise, a whole lot faster than I have ever saw it rise here in our county, we soon started to have to rescue people from their homes and provide additional assistance to our residents, and to our fire departments," Christopher said.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hurricane Grace makes landfall near Mexico's Tulum temples

TULUM, Mexico — Hurricane Grace struck Mexico’s Caribbean coast just south of the ancient Mayan temples of Tulum early Thursday, pushing a dangerous storm surge. Heavy rain and strong winds threatened to destroy flimsier homes and keep tourists off white sand beaches until it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.

The Category 1 storm had already soaked earthquake-damaged Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands en route to a direct hit on the Riviera Maya, the heart of Mexico’s tourism industry. Grace’s center struck just south of Tulum at 4:45 a.m. with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.