AK AK - Steve Keel, 61, missing from hunting trip, from TN - Aug 27, 2022

[annpats]

There’s now a video posted on the FB page. It shows Steve’s tent, and the first pole on the ridge can be seen from there.

Yes, the pole/stick is directly in a straight line 180° behind his tent, a short walk away.

The lake is in front of his tent.

So he certainly can't have been confused about direction.

He would've been able to see his tent from a good distance away too, there's nothing in the way to impede the view.

Now I've seen it, I'm even more confused about how he disappeared.

MOO.

 

[acutename]

I keep reading about this huge storm impacting Western Alaska

Western Alaska Lashed by Strongest Storm in Years (Published 2022)

Remnants of Typhoon Merbok caused widespread coastal flooding in the Bering Strait region. Dangerous conditions were expected to continue through the weekend.

www.nytimes.com

Is that going to reach Dalton or mess up supply availability?

 

[acutename]

I keep reading about this huge storm impacting Western Alaska

Western Alaska Lashed by Strongest Storm in Years (Published 2022)

Remnants of Typhoon Merbok caused widespread coastal flooding in the Bering Strait region. Dangerous conditions were expected to continue through the weekend.

www.nytimes.com

Is that going to reach Dalton or mess up supply availability?

answering part of my own Q, it looks OK in Dead Horse but it is below freezing at night later this week

Deadhorse, AK 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Deadhorse, AK with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com

weather.com

A way-out-there-question- are here any natives that could have taken him with them somehow? I don't know why or where but his disappearance does seem odd. Curious if he usually took any meds or had any conditions.

 

[RickshawFan]

You'd have thought!

I wonder if a native indigenous tracker can find anything?

Worth trying! I don't think there are too many options left.

K-9's were ruled out a couple of weeks ago already, because the search area has been contaminated by other people's footprints, searchers, family, DNA, people-debris, etc. I would guess an indigenous tracker would have the same obstacles.

 

[annpats]

K-9's were ruled out a couple of weeks ago already, because the search area has been contaminated by other people's footprints, searchers, family, DNA, people-debris, etc. I would guess an indigenous tracker would have the same obstacles.

Oh, that's a shame. Thanks for that info.

 

[RickshawFan]

There’s now a video posted on the FB page. It shows Steve’s tent, and the first pole on the ridge can be seen from there.

I can't find this.

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

I can't find this.

I saw it earlier but I don’t see it now. There is a video that was posted yesterday that was taken by the same guy, his initials are CS. Go to his page and you can see the tent video a few posts down. Also look at his first post, he has some thoughts about what possibly happened after searching that area. Some of it is what you have suggested here.

 

[RickshawFan]

I saw it earlier but I don’t see it now. There is a video that was posted yesterday that was taken by the same guy, his initials are CS. Go to his page and you can see the tent video a few posts down. Also look at his first post, he has some thoughts about what possibly happened after searching that area. Some of it is what you have suggested here.

Thanks. I ended up going to his site.

Is that actually SK's tent? A lot isn't making sense to me in this set up....

Why is the tent even still up? I'm thinking that's the poster's tent.

CS sounds like he's been reading here. You're right @BayouBelle_LA , he does have some good ideas: I like the one about missing the meat by going on past it on the left, then missing the camp on the right and ending up in the swamp.
This was like my point about junior high geometry and parallel lines. If you only had a compass direction, and couldn't see the poles (which you evidently can't), you could end up on a line parallel to the line between the poles. That way, if you missed the meat, you would also miss the camp.

 

[annpats]

Is that actually SK's tent? A lot isn't making sense to me in this set up....

Why is the tent even still up? I'm thinking that's the poster's tent.

In the video he made, the stick used to mark the caribou was still up too. He zoomed in on it.

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

Thanks. I ended up going to his site.

Is that actually SK's tent? A lot isn't making sense to me in this set up....

Why is the tent even still up? I'm thinking that's the poster's tent.

CS sounds like he's been reading here. You're right @BayouBelle_LA , he does have some good ideas: I like the one about missing the meat by going on past it on the left, then missing the camp on the right and ending up in the swamp.

A couple posts down from the tent post is a video of inside the tent, it says Steve’s tent.

 

[RickshawFan]

In the video he made, the stick used to mark the caribou was still up too. He zoomed in on it.

Interesting that you couldn't see the pole at the cache if you were standing at the pole near the camp site.

 

[RickshawFan]

That's SK's tent? Count me shocked...
Plus, if that equipment is still out there, ummmmm, someone should be picking it up? It's not okay to be leaving stuff out in the wilderness (cf "pack it in, pack it out"). From what CS said, it sounded like meat got dumped in the lake, too. AK law says all game meat has to be packed out, and they are very serious about it: Field-to-Freezer Meat Care in Alaska, Alaska Department of Fish and Game

 

[RickshawFan]

That would be something if they found him that way.

“ In the meantime, Liz requested the North Slope Search and Rescue deploy their RECCO device, which is placed on a helicopter and can ping a cell phone’s circuit board, even if the cell phone battery is dead.”

For discussion of recco, see ^^^^^. It’s very unlikely recco would do what the searchers wanted it to do (it’s theoretical), but it’s also unlikely SK had recco on his clothing. Recco is mostly used at the moment in snow conditions, like avalanches.

There’s a lot of blame being placed on local SAR for not conducting a search the way friends wanted, and failure to deploy recco was one item in the mix. The drumbeat of blame against SAR was counterproductive and unfortunate: SAR went above and beyond, and then some.

 

[neesaki]

For discussion of recco, see ^^^^^. It’s very unlikely recco would do what the searchers wanted it to do (it’s theoretical), but it’s also unlikely SK had recco on his clothing. Recco is mostly used at the moment in snow conditions, like avalanches.

There’s a lot of blame being placed on local SAR for not conducting a search the way friends wanted, and failure to deploy recco was one item in the mix. The drumbeat of blame against SAR was counterproductive and unfortunate: SAR went above and beyond, and then some.

I know nothin whatsoever about recco so thanks for the information.

 

[5W's]

It doesn’t surprise me at all that searches haven’t found SK. This is true of a high percentage of wilderness missing cases.

We can't lump all cases together every circumstance is different. So if there are unusual aspects they should be looked at to see and understand how the individual wound up in the unforeseen circumstance. Looking at them doesn't detract from anything actually to dismiss those aspects may delay finding the individual IMO.

 

[5W's]

Snipped for focus...

There are many reasons why this could happen:
--Bryan's memory of the location may have been better
--Bryan may not have panicked
--Bryan might be taller. and could see the poles at all times
--Bryan might have better eyesight
--Bryan's orienting gizmo may have been set correctly
--Bryan might have used binoculars
--Bryan wasn't lost (see ^^^ for the videos on "lost person behavior", and what it does to you)
--Bryan might not have lost sighting of the two poles at any time
--Bryan might have recorded the location on his etrex, and didn't need poles at all

etc. etc.

If it was difficult for Steve to navigate the entire hunting trip then why go on the trip at all? Wouldn't Bryan be concerned about Steve's situation right from the beginning of the trip? Afterall it will only encumber Bryan's enjoyment of the trip. Bryan would know this right from the beginning and make sure Steve was prepared to come back safely.

 

[5W's]

For discussion of recco, see ^^^^^. It’s very unlikely recco would do what the searchers wanted it to do (it’s theoretical), but it’s also unlikely SK had recco on his clothing. Recco is mostly used at the moment in snow conditions, like avalanches.

There’s a lot of blame being placed on local SAR for not conducting a search the way friends wanted, and failure to deploy recco was one item in the mix. The drumbeat of blame against SAR was counterproductive and unfortunate: SAR went above and beyond, and then some.

Family requesting something from SAR is not detracting from a SAR teams helpfullness or abilities. Unfortunately the bottom line is SAR teams have differing capabilities. If it was all across the board all SAR teams use the same technology, and equipment to find people it would only enhance not detract. As far as the cell phone pings being picked up from the helicopter its an excellent idea as it is the circuit board of the cell phone so clothing is immaterial in that context of the circuitboard.

 

[RickshawFan]

We can't lump all cases together every circumstance is different. So if there are unusual aspects they should be looked at to see and understand how the individual wound up in the unforeseen circumstance. Looking at them doesn't detract from anything actually to dismiss those aspects may delay finding the individual IMO.

While every individual is a unique person, there is a science of “lost behavior”. They looked at hundreds of thousands of cases. People do similar and predictable things when they get lost. So predictable, that the US Department of Homeland Security has an app for it. SAR follows these algorithms because they have the highest likelihood of success. There is even a specific algorithm for hunters and another for hikers.
But that doesn’t mean SAR finds everyone who goes lost in backcountry. They don’t, unfortunately.
I am quite sure SAR did everything they could in this case and then some.

Relevant videos on “lost person behavior” are posted ^^^^^.

 

[RickshawFan]

I know nothin whatsoever about recco so thanks for the information.

If you ski, you might see a recco strip on your jacket.

 

[RickshawFan]

If it was difficult for Steve to navigate the entire hunting trip then why go on the trip at all? Wouldn't Bryan be concerned about Steve's situation right from the beginning of the trip? Afterall it will only encumber Bryan's enjoyment of the trip. Bryan would know this right from the beginning and make sure Steve was prepared to come back safely.

I haven’t seen anything published on how they interacted with each other.

Also, people assess risk differently and pay attention to different factors. This trip to a wild and unfamiliar place is a very clear example. For instance, there are posters here in the camp of “I’d never in a million years do that trip” versus other posters who assess the context as no different from their home base except maybe you can see for miles.