CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #5

[rahod1]

So @rahod1, this is a very helpful graphic, but it is of Hite Cove Trail to Hite Cove - where the family did not hike that day (that we know of!).

Your intent though may be just to provide us with a reality check that if the family had continued on the Hites Cover OHV Trail rather than go South/West along the South Fork Merced River, it would have added 8 miles - and would likely not have saved them. So for comparison, can you do the same with two other scenarios:

1) the suspected (by LE) loop of Hites Cove OHV Trail to some unnamed river road along the South Fork Merced to Savage-Lundy trail, and
2) Hites Cove OHV Trail until it terminates at the far right point of your red line here, down to the Hites Mine Trail to Route 140 (down those switchbacks)?

I think it would be helpful to get a sense of the distance we are talking about in that heat, as to what would have been reasonable alternatives or perhaps initial plans?

Yes.....that was my intent, to show it would still be arduous. However, it would have added a NET of 3 miles because from the juncture to the river from HC trail along the river South to the end of SL was still another 5 miles ( 2 miles on river South and 3 miles up SL). They were found 3.5 miles into that hike. Having said that, the HC NORTH to the 140 would be along the river all the way....so it's possible it would have saved them IF they would have utilized that resource for cooling.

 

[Snoopster]

Well, @Snoopster. Others have digested this along with me, so I am doing this from memory and if I get any of this wrong, let me know. I will add, that Admin has OK'd us exploring homicide as long as we don't name any third party persons by name or role or any such thing and continue to be victim (the JG/EC family) friendly.

Causes of Death - What is off the List:

• Gun or any other type of weapon
• Lightning Strike
• Carbon Monoxide
• Carbon Dioxide
• Cyanide Exposure
• Illegal Drugs / Alcohol

Causes of Death - What is On the List:

• Overdose of prescription, over the counter, other "legal drugs"

(note: it appears that Fentanyl may be considered legal vs. illegal based on its formulation or how acquired/used) ​

• Poisoning by pesticides or other man-made substance (e.g. Ethylene Glycol)
• Heat stroke, dehydration, etc.
• Natural toxins such as from algae or plant poisons
• Everything else not off the list

Manner of Death - What is Off the List:

• Suicide

Manner of Death - What is On the List:

• Homicide
• Accident
• Natural
• Undetermined

Thank you!

But now I'm concerned that we have so many options still on the table.

I'm still leaning toward heat stroke/ accident. But there are still a lot of options still out there. (Although, I think we can take 'natural' off the list as I'm sure they didn't all just die of a heart attack at the same time.)

 

[rahod1]

Thank you!

But now I'm concerned that we have so many options still on the table.

I'm still leaning toward heat stroke/ accident. But there are still a lot of options still out there. (Although, I think we can take 'natural' off the list as I'm sure they didn't all just die of a heart attack at the same time.)

MOO>> As to manner of death, I don't see *homicide* as being a viable one at this point and as you stated, *natural* makes no sense . That leaves *accident* which would include HS and poisoning. In the poisoning category we have drugs and algae on the river. I just can't see either of those as a cause....just MOO

 

[RickshawFan]

@RedHaus Add to your list. In the realm of the fantastic (so no one please get ideas that I'm stating a fact here)..... Electronic zapping.

For example:
-Supposing she/he/they were carrying a beta technology that zapped them in error?
-Supposing they were microwave-zapped like those poor US Embassy folks in Havana?
-Supposing there was a spy-drone in the area that dispensed something aerosolized and very targeted? A kid could have experimented and done something very bad by mistake? The pushback about this kind of thing is that there would be other dead animals in the area. However, that was a very barren area. There may be some animals, but IMO not a lot. Maybe there'd be a dead marmot or two, but nothing very obviously wrong.
-What if her phone went bad from the heat? Would it ooze something toxic? Would it explode? Would it mess with her heart rhythm?
-What if ice fell off a plane flying 30,000 feet overhead? They would be killed on impact, but the projectile would melt, leaving no trace.

Moment worker has lucky escape as ice block 'from passing plane' nearly hits him

 

[RickshawFan]

Now, I'm crazy for this falling ice theory. In that article, UK says this happens maybe 30 times a year.
But here is a situation in southern CA:

My gosh, this one is even more illustrative: big hole in house.
Ice believed to have fallen from airplane crashes through roof of Mississauga home | Globalnews.ca

 

[HannahJJJ]

Ice believed to have fallen from airplane crashes through roof of Mississauga home | Globalnews.ca

How frightening for that family. It could have bashed his wife's head in, his son's head.

As he said, "one minute can change everything". True for all of us.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

OK..we MAY never know on accidental poisoning

I expect those tests will come back negative, since the search of their persons, vehicles, home and autopsies turned up nothing of interest regarding poison. That will satisfy me, one overwhelming cause of death is plenty as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Snoopster]

@RedHaus Add to your list. In the realm of the fantastic (so no one please get ideas that I'm stating a fact here)..... Electronic zapping.

For example:
-Supposing she/he/they were carrying a beta technology that zapped them in error?
-Supposing they were microwave-zapped like those poor US Embassy folks in Havana?
-Supposing there was a spy-drone in the area that dispensed something aerosolized and very targeted? A kid could have experimented and done something very bad by mistake? The pushback about this kind of thing is that there would be other dead animals in the area. However, that was a very barren area. There may be some animals, but IMO not a lot. Maybe there'd be a dead marmot or two, but nothing very obviously wrong.
-What if her phone went bad from the heat? Would it ooze something toxic? Would it explode? Would it mess with her heart rhythm?
-What if ice fell off a plane flying 30,000 feet overhead? They would be killed on impact, but the projectile would melt, leaving no trace.

Moment worker has lucky escape as ice block 'from passing plane' nearly hits him

regarding bolded point: Then that would be a physical injury death. That would have showed up. I think it's safe to cross that off the list.

regarding the phone going 'bad': this strikes me as incredibly far fetched...and it wouldn't kill them all.

I love that you are trying to think outside the box though!

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Fixing quoting . . .Did Google Earth give a year for the images? Something I looked up on GE had 2017 photos, which would be before the fire.

@LifeIsAMystery the date for the image I am using is defined as "2017-newer."

I still maintain that without compass (which we don't know if they had) or a topo map, we can't be certain if the GCs had any idea where they were once they got to the Merced River. They may not have known location or direction. Even if Jon downloaded a trail map to his phone, I can't imagine it did him much good. They may have followed the vegetation, river or what they thought was a way out or up.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

regarding bolded point: Then that would be a physical injury death. That would have showed up. I think it's safe to cross that off the list.

regarding the phone going 'bad': this strikes me as incredibly far fetched...and it wouldn't kill them all.

I love that you are trying to think outside the box though!

I think ice konking them all on the head hard enough to cause death would also have caused physical injury, MOO.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

This case crops up for me at strange times. Tonight I was listening to a Dateline podcast of the staircase murder in NC in which (I believe) Michael Peterson pushed his wife Kathleen down the back stairs. I've seen the documentary film and read the book. The podcast is a much later point of view where Michael gets to hold center stage. Every shred of evidence (to me) points to Peterson as the murder of his wife-- except the owl theory. Someone came up with the idea that an owl attacked Kathleen while she was outside drinking, she got a head injury, stumbled inside, and fell down the stairs.

I always think of the Owl Theory when my gut tells me something is simple and someone wants to make it complicated-- in order to make life simpler for all. We'd rather believe an owl is a murderer than a man is. Like Kreycik being attacked by a mountain lion. Or poor innocent algae minding its own business. But who knows? Maybe the owl did do it. . .

 

[RickshawFan]

regarding bolded point: Then that would be a physical injury death. That would have showed up. I think it's safe to cross that off the list.

regarding the phone going 'bad': this strikes me as incredibly far fetched...and it wouldn't kill them all.

I love that you are trying to think outside the box though!

IMO Only one adult had to be in trouble for the whole family to succumb to the heat. The surviving adult would not be able to handle the baby, the dog, get help, take care of the spouse all at once.

I'm hanging onto my ice theory.
But, I'm also into the possibility that there was beta technology or a messed-up phone in JG's breast pocket and it caused his heart to fibrillate.

Perhaps the heat could cause the electronics in the phone to malfunction in such a way as to create a fatal heart arrythmia?

 

[Yvettea]

The idea of homicide in this case seems so fantastical to me although I can see a hypothetical for murder. I don’t have a concrete understanding of the family’s real estate holdings but if they are vacation rentals a long-time resident could resent “outsiders” moving in and changing the nature of their beloved town/neighborhood. But does murder happen for a reason like that? Missing person cases are my usual fare.

 

[Speculaytor]

Am I the only one wondering what is taking toxicology so long? Did I miss something? They said it would take ~ two weeks for toxicology?

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Am I the only one wondering what is taking toxicology so long? Did I miss something? They said it would take ~ two weeks for toxicology?

MOO, but I think it often takes 4-6 weeks for toxicology, and that was before covid backups and without the added unusual circumstances of this case.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

IMO Only one adult had to be in trouble for the whole family to succumb to the heat. The surviving adult would not be able to handle the baby, the dog, get help, take care of the spouse all at once.

I'm with you here. Something for hiking families to think about. I never have seen it so plainly. Even without heat, any accident could have done them all in, if only one adult were taken out.

 

[rahod1]

@LifeIsAMystery the date for the image I am using is defined as "2017-newer."

I still maintain that without compass (which we don't know if they had) or a topo map, we can't be certain if the GCs had any idea where they were once they got to the Merced River. They may not have known location or direction. Even if Jon downloaded a trail map to his phone, I can't imagine it did him much good. They may have followed the vegetation, river or what they thought was a way out or up.

I would give JG some credit for being familiar with maps and direction, having some sense of where they were going, but you never know. They must have had a plan that, at a minimum, entailed hiking down HC Trail to the river (MOO), so it's possible that there may have been some confusion from that juncture. I would assume they planned on ending the hike back at the truck, which would have entailed taking the hike back up HC trail OR back up SL trail. I think the speculation of being confused as to direction is a red herring. The main focus as far as I'm concerned, is WHEN did they realize they were getting in over their head? I assume it was at some point going down HC to the river. By the time they reached the river it was at least an hour into the hike and it was HOT at that location at the time. I think (MOO) at that point the hike became problematic for them and was no longer a pleasant excursion. They knew what they were facing hiking back up HC and that must have been daunting, so they took the path of least resistance going forward down the river to SL, but SL was an *unknown* for them at the time (MOO). Perhaps they thought SL back up would be tolerable vs hiking back up HC? Ironically, I think turning back up HC from the river may have been a better option and possibly survivable.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

@LifeIsAMystery the date for the image I am using is defined as "2017-newer."

I still maintain that without compass (which we don't know if they had) or a topo map, we can't be certain if the GCs had any idea where they were once they got to the Merced River. They may not have known location or direction. Even if Jon downloaded a trail map to his phone, I can't imagine it did him much good. They may have followed the vegetation, river or what they thought was a way out or up.

I think your imagery is from 2017, on the toolbar at the top of Google Earth is a clock icon, select that to get historical imagery. Using that you can get the most recent which is 8/8/2018, right after the Ferguson Fire. The image quality is not nearly as good as the 2017 images, but you can see a lot burned. It is still green down by the river, so at least some of the trees down there probably survived. Probably some vegetation has started re-growing in the three years since, but the last two were drought years, so I'm sure it is struggling. Attached is an image of the Savage Lundy Trail in 2018, you can barely make out some of the switchbacks. It was really barren after the 2018 fire.

 

[Deleted member 222031]

I think your imagery is from 2017, on the toolbar at the top of Google Earth is a clock icon, select that to get historical imagery. Using that you can get the most recent which is 8/8/2018, right after the Ferguson Fire. The image quality is not nearly as good as the 2017 images, but you can see a lot burned. It is still green down by the river, so at least some of the trees down there probably survived. Probably some vegetation has started re-growing in the three years since, but the last two were drought years, so I'm sure it is struggling. Attached is an image of the Savage Lundy Trail in 2018, you can barely make out some of the switchbacks. It was really barren after the 2018 fire.

Savage being apropos as to trail name and conditions. If they had ascended the HC back to their car, would tree cover have helped despite the heat and extra exertion required?

I can see a need for signage at both ends of SL re: conditions and climb in elevation. Scorched earth and an elevation gain clearly noted might have made them turn back.

But having an infant really put the pressure on to find a way back to the truck. I doubt they were prepared for an overnight.

I would like to see a memorial for this family be placed at a beautiful wildflower overlook.

JMO

 

[rahod1]

. It was really barren after the 2018 fire.

Looking at SAR photo of recovery shows area is still barren. The entire SL trail looks inhospitable ! I don't know who would want to hike this under ANY conditions. I'm not convinced it was part of their original plan, but a result of an aborted hike down and back HC trail to the river. MOO