Canada, Greenland, Mexico, etc - USA Tariffs / Trade War commencing March 2025 #4

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  • #861
The problem is that China (or Vietnam) have all the raw materials, all the supply chains, all the specialized equipment, all the low-wage but trained employees, all the huge factories within efficient proximity.

The US has none of this. They would have to buy Chinese equipment to even get started. Are they just going to put enormous clothing, shoe, or electrical factories in old malls? Won't there be zoning issues and parking / transport issues if they try to repurpose old factories? And which clothing or shoe company is going to purchase or lease expensive land, go through local zoning, hire thousands of workers and train them? Where are they going to import the raw materials from? The US does not have anywhere near enough textile or specialized fabric or plastics manufacturing to satisfy the product runs for Nike, or Columbia Sportswear, or Walmart clothing, etc.

A century-old family furniture manufacturing company in North Carolina just closed because they could not afford to bring in-house their materials and preliminary assembly that was taking place in Mexico.

Edited because I misread the intial posting, oops.
The issue that really irks me is the oft repeated phrase of how China stole industry from the US, stole intellectual property, etc. When the reality is that the more US citizens became part of the working class and middle class, the more those people became consumers of goods. They were earning the salaries they'd always hoped for, but the downside for industries that hired them had to pay salaries that were attractive to American workers, but to satisfy their shareholders had to charge more for their product to offset the increase in wages. It became a never ending cycle. So they made overtures to countries like China and Mexico to start manufacturing goods at prices the population wanted BUT could afford.

So the trade off was that some of those Americans earning good salaries lost their jobs but those still with jobs could afford the products now made off shore. Again, the problem was that the base of well paid employees kept getting smaller and smaller as the companies started closing factories and businesses to move production of their products off shore - whether that was TV's, electronics, washing machines and dryers, pretty well anything you can remember from the 1980s that no longer exist. Like Motorola, Zenith, RCA, etc. Can you imagine how much a 77 inch TV would cost if it was manufactured in the US using humans and not automated? If an LG 77 inch TV costs $3800 in Canada right now, it would probably cost about $7000 if it was manufactured in the US.

And don't forget, there is always going to be an income gap between the middle class and the upper class - they demand it. Which is why upper class people pay $12K for entry level Rolex or $30K for a Patek Phillippe. That's why working and middle class people are willing to buy knock offs for $300. They don't care they have a fake Tag Heuer watch. That's why there's so many counterfeit products out there. It's a never ending cycle -separating the wheat (the rich) from the chaff (the not rich).

And here's an interesting conundrum: when companies like Coach, an upscale American company that made purses and wallets starting in the 1950s they were considered a badge of success. You'd made it if you had a Coach purse. I have a lot of Coach purses. Many made in Italy, the creme de la creme. One, a pearlized leather Grace Kelly style bag in pistachio that I've never ever worn made in 1996 cost about $550USD. In today's dollars that's about $1100 USD. What regular person would be willing to pay that now. So to feed the American public's demand for Coach products, around 2001, they started manufacturing their products off shore in, you guessed it, China. So all of a sudden the market was inundated with much cheaper Coach products that even a teenager working a part time job could afford one if they saved up for a few months. The Coach cachet kind of lost its sparkle to the better off and they moved on to Louis Vuitton, Burberry and Gucci, but Americans with modest incomes could afford them. To get back into the good graces again, Coach started moving production from China to places like Vietnam and India. Even cheaper wages there but now the products were trying to attract those they lost. They could charge $800 for a purse and still make a decent profit.

You know what it's like when a store, for whatever reason, decides to move - like a furniture store moving to a larger location - they don't take their merchandise with them; it's cheaper to sell it at a sale price that attracts customers, to avoid the cost of transportation and it's considered a win/win for company and customer. In the case of Coach, when they moved a factory from China to Vietnam they left everything there, the machines, the space, the leather, the hardware for their products. They only thing they took was the authority to state the product was an authentic Coach item. So when that Chinese factory stood empty, the Chinese looked around and said, hey we can still make stuff, so they did. But now all that product is considered counterfeit.
 
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  • #862
And still Trump and his accolytes are harping about the great deals out there on close-outs. Get your Big Deal Now, before the offer expires at midnight. Hot Deals, the Best Deals, the most Beautiful Deals.

High-pressure salesmen of the lowest character.
 
  • #863
Trumps increasing "pressure games" are antithetical to the customary timing of trade talks, which deliberately go on for years or months.

His sleazy sales gimmicks "Capitulate NOW or the tariff goes up 50%" are so similar to the skeevy used car salesman or shouty annoying TV infomercials that are nothing but high-pressure sales tactics. Perhaps that works in NYC mob boss real estate deals. International business should not be handled in this manner.

His drama-inducing deadlines are ridiculous in dealing with complex financial negotiations.

No one wants to engage with the flam-flam man.

Not only ridiculous but illustrates an instability in his thinking. On one hand, he's giving countries ultimatums but on the other hand he's saying it's not written in stone we can negotiate (translation - give us your raw materials, or else). I read the only country that has made real overtures to Trump and his tariff scheme is an African country, Lethoso, who's citizens' daily wage averages out to about $6 USD.
 
  • #864
  • #865
Interesting. It's worth remembering that it's not having the natural resources that matters, it's being able to get them out of the ground cost-effectively. This is Venezuela's problem with oil. On paper they have vast reserves. In reality the geology is extremely difficult, so much so that it costs an average of $150 per barrel to get the stuff to the surface.
Venezuela's problem that they never diversified. They are a petrostate. Having only one product in your basket to sell, oil, means when things go sideways on the international stage you have nothing to fall back on. Venezuela which has the biggest oil reserves in the world, was the only non-Middle East member of OPEC when it was originally created. So as OPEC went, so did Venezuela. When oil prices tumbled Venezuela was forced by OPEC to keep oil prices low destroying its economy. Venezuela's oil reserves are so enormous they have enough oil to last over a thousand years. I remember back in the mid 90s tons of people going on vacation to Margarita Island for cheap holidays. Not anymore.

 
  • #866
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  • #867
Trump wants other countries to call him to negotiate and I really hope nobody takes him up on it.
 
  • #868
  • The US would prevail in a global trade war, Steve Eisman said.
  • Exports account for a bigger chunk of foreign GDP than the US, giving America an edge in talks, Eisman said.
  • Some have said the US is poised to weather recession better than other countries.
(…)
"The reason why cooler heads will prevail is that, again, in a trade war, everybody will suffer; the US will suffer the least," he said Tuesday.


One thing a Trump presidency has never been known for is having a "cool head". imo

The thing that Steve Eisman neglects to point out is that Trump has been whinging about 'they won't buy things from us'.

It's true. China, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Ireland sell more to the US than they buy from the US.

Netherlands, Hong Kong, Brazil, Singapore, Australia, and United Kingdom buy more from the US than we sell to them ... but many of us are shifting trade partners. Calmness reigns among non-alarmists who are able to adapt and move sideways.

imo

 
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  • #869
Trump wants other countries to call him to negotiate and I really hope nobody takes him up on it.

I was wondering if the "50-70 calls" (depending who is saying it) they have received since releasing their tariff info were from countries or from companies/CEOs.

imo
 
  • #870
I was wondering if the "50-70 calls" (depending who is saying it) they have received since releasing their tariff info were from countries or from companies/CEOs.

imo
It is an exaggeration of facts - that much we know to be true. Trump exaggerates when he wants to push his unfounded viewpoint into the propaganda stream. He wants other countries to believe that they have to line up, take their turn, wait, let Trump call the shots, and maybe he'll discuss tariffs with them, maybe not.

We know that the EU spoke with Trump. They offered zero tariffs for both nations. It was reported that Trump's response was "inappropriate". Maybe he resorted to profanity again, like he did with Canada.
 
  • #871
I was wondering if the "50-70 calls" (depending who is saying it) they have received since releasing their tariff info were from countries or from companies/CEOs.

imo

Considering the scope of the upheaval, that is not very many calls. I would expect that he'd get many more than 50 calls on a normal business day. It makes me believe that many countries and businesses are ignoring him.
 
  • #872
I was looking at which US companies China has blacklisted. Engineering, drone technology, fibre optics companies among them.

Also Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger - their parent company (PVH) gets 16% of its profit from sales in China. Calvin Klein is sold in virtually every Chinese province. (Link)

 
  • #873
Not only ridiculous but illustrates an instability in his thinking. On one hand, he's giving countries ultimatums but on the other hand he's saying it's not written in stone we can negotiate (translation - give us your raw materials, or else). I read the only country that has made real overtures to Trump and his tariff scheme is an African country, Lethoso, who's citizens' daily wage averages out to about $6 USD.

On Trump's first list Lesotho figured with a tariff of 57%. With absolutely mini exports of textiles and diamonds. They would be wiped out
 
  • #874
Considering the scope of the upheaval, that is not very many calls. I would expect that he'd get many more than 50 calls on a normal business day. It makes me believe that many countries and businesses are ignoring him.

Yes. And I think a lot of effort probably went in pre-tariffs. Maybe not so much after the announcement.

I would think that the bigger concerns (now) are coming from US companies whose businesses are going to hurt. Like Apple, for example. And they might be calling the WH.

imo
 
  • #875
Back in 2020, China signed free trade agreements with 14 Asia Pacific countries .... "Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea signed the deal, alongside members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand."

I am not sure how realistic the Dutch concerns are either. I don't feel that we are flooded with cheap Chinese goods. We still all buy Japanese cars, Japanese TVs, Swedish furniture, etc etc.

I think a lot of the fear of trading with China comes about because China is 'the enemy'.

I think China will likely just adjust its output of goods to suit its markets.

imo

With a huge drop in exports to the US, China may experience some kind of recession. I think this trade war can become a "hot" war, because trade helps avoid war. China and the US had a lot to lose if trade was disrupted. However uncomfortable it was, there was too much at stake in the economies of both countries to allow their relationship to deteriorate to a point where war was a possibility.

Now we have leaders who probably are incapable of restoring relations. Saving face, huge egos, the needless destruction of economies, all for no sane purpose.
 
  • #876
  • The US would prevail in a global trade war, Steve Eisman said.
  • Exports account for a bigger chunk of foreign GDP than the US, giving America an edge in talks, Eisman said.
  • Some have said the US is poised to weather recession better than other countries.
(…)
"The reason why cooler heads will prevail is that, again, in a trade war, everybody will suffer; the US will suffer the least," he said Tuesday.

Steve is delusional.. any one who falls for this nonsense is delusional.
 
  • #877
Venezuela's problem that they never diversified. They are a petrostate. Having only one product in your basket to sell, oil, means when things go sideways on the international stage you have nothing to fall back on. Venezuela which has the biggest oil reserves in the world, was the only non-Middle East member of OPEC when it was originally created. So as OPEC went, so did Venezuela. When oil prices tumbled Venezuela was forced by OPEC to keep oil prices low destroying its economy. Venezuela's oil reserves are so enormous they have enough oil to last over a thousand years. I remember back in the mid 90s tons of people going on vacation to Margarita Island for cheap holidays. Not anymore.



You can still go to Margarita Islands for a reasonable price.

But absolutely agree with your post. Venezuela has always blown opportunities that have affected its population to such an extent that average to poor income people can no longer live there.

A whole series of bad moves, including dividing the Amazon into squares (rather than indigenous reserves or national parks) and selling them to Catholic Church.
 
  • #878
With a huge drop in exports to the US, China may experience some kind of recession. I think this trade war can become a "hot" war, because trade helps avoid war. China and the US had a lot to lose if trade was disrupted. However uncomfortable it was, there was too much at stake in the economies of both countries to allow their relationship to deteriorate to a point where war was a possibility.

Now we have leaders who probably are incapable of restoring relations. Saving face, huge egos, the needless destruction of economies, all for no sane purpose.

For further info ....

China's exports to the US are about 14% of its exports. We know (widely reported) that Apple will hurt, and probably others - as telephones, integrated circuits, and computers are China's largest exports.

Canada and Mexico receive the largest amount of US exports - China is 3rd on the list.
(Note that while receiving the largest amount of US exports, Canada and Mexico still export more to the US than it imports from the US).



 
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  • #879
President Trump said there could be a potential trade deal in the works with South Korea, saying the country has a team traveling to the United States to make a deal, nearly a week after Trump’s latest tariff announcement.

This is a venture with failure embedded, because at this point , South Korea has entered into a trade arrangement with CHINA and JAPAN...... Strange bedfellows but that's what happens when the 'West' threatens the 'East'... It ain't 1945 no more.... which means, that CHINA and JAPAN have to be consulted, and dealt with, and CHINA is not going to do that. I do not see JAPAN even considering that proposal.

( I found myself sniggering a bit at the description 'team'... does anything even close to looking like a team exist in the USA???)
 
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  • #880
This is a venture with failure embedded, because at this point , South Korea has entered into a trade arrangement with CHINA and JAPAN Strange bedfellows but that's what happens when the 'West' threatens the 'East'... It ain't 1945 no more.... which means, that CHINA and JAPAN have to be consulted, and dealt with, and CHINA is not going to do that. I do not see JAPAN even considering that proposal.

China got in first with those trade deals.
South Korea and Japan, I think, honour their trade deals. They are not known to go back on them.
They likely could get the best of both worlds.

The US would have been better off quietly renegotiating trade deals, where they deemed necessary, instead of letting the world (and China) know US plans/trade threats before they happened.

imo
 
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