Canada, Greenland, Mexico, etc - USA Tariffs / Trade War commencing March 2025 #4

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  • #941
my brother works at a brand that mostly has factories in vietnam, china and thailand and sells products worldwide, so i’ve been asking him lots of questions about how they’ll deal with this! the main things they have been doing is sending as much stock as they can to the US over the past few weeks, and shuffle things around so that most of the production for the US market will now be made in thailand, and their china factories will scale down production a bit but also will now mainly be used for non-US markets. the tariffs will still cost them millions, but these changes will cut the impact in half for the near future. in their case producing their products in the US instead of asia still wouldn’t be profitable.
 
  • #942
So you know it’s bad when your financial adviser calls to “check in and see how you’re doing,” as ours did today. 😳

Edit—I told him, ‘Well this is all certainly unprecedented…or unpresidented.” He laughed and said “I’m going to use that.” 😂
 
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  • #943
  • #944
""They ban our beef and they ban our pork," he [Greer] said."

a.webp

Informal poll in this MSM started today.

 
  • #945
On Trump's first list Lesotho figured with a tariff of 57%. With absolutely mini exports of textiles and diamonds. They would be wiped out
Lesotho would be badly impacted by tariffs on clothing and textiles, but not necessarily by those on diamonds as they don't export diamonds in quantity directly to the US. Basically almost all diamonds globally pass through one of the diamond trading and cutting centres of Antwerp in Belgium/EU, India or the UAE so they should be caught by whatever tariffs have been imposed on those countries.
 
  • #946
With a huge drop in exports to the US, China may experience some kind of recession.
This will be the nightmare at the back of Chinese minds. There is a well-known Chinese saying of "May you live in interesting times", where interesting times means civil war, famine, popular uprising and/or natural disaster. Anything which may lead the population to rise up against whoever is in power.

Keeping the populace employed keeps them fed and occupied so less likely to rise up. The last thing the CCP wants is large numbers of factory and other workers being laid off, getting bored, hungry and generally pissed off.
 
  • #947
He is also now shouting about instituting pharmaceutical tariffs this week. China, India, maybe Ireland.

Has there been any study on the effect of increased drug prices on those people on fixed incomes, with chronic diseases that need their insulin, their antibiotics, their anti-epileptics, their pain medications?
For what it's worth, global insulin production is dominated by three companies: Eli Lily (US), Novo Nordisk (Denmark) and Sanofi (France).

 
  • #948
  • #949
This will be the nightmare at the back of Chinese minds. There is a well-known Chinese saying of "May you live in interesting times", where interesting times means civil war, famine, popular uprising and/or natural disaster. Anything which may lead the population to rise up against whoever is in power.

Keeping the populace employed keeps them fed and occupied so less likely to rise up. The last thing the CCP wants is large numbers of factory and other workers being laid off, getting bored, hungry and generally pissed off.
China has lasted for centuries.. it's had it's ups and downs, last century, the 20th was extremely turbulent,, Mao Zedong, the Gang of Four, the Red guards etc then, for the last 35 years since Tiananmen Square it has become a prosperous nation, feeding 1.2 BILLION citizens 3 times a day. ....which, it has to be admitted , the USA would let people starve.. lots do, and homeless to boot. Many of them veterans of the many many wars the USA indulges it's weaponry industry with terrific extravagance .

The USA could not even resist fighting among themselves, and killing policemen in the House of the People in Washington over an entirely made up scenario...

There will be no nightmare for the Chinese.. they have 7.3 billion customers to sell stuff to, The USA as of this morning, has but 4 export countries to sell to... . Israel, maybe Hungary, and possibly Saudi Arabia.. and Russia, whose products are left on the shelf in any developed nation..

Not even caviar can do it. Historically, caviar came from the Caspian and Black Sea, although now caviar is harvested around the world. Wild caviar has been over-farmed over the course of hundreds of years, and for that reason farmed caviar is increasingly common — and popular.

Even Australia produces caviar....http://www.deluxecaviar.com.au/

 
  • #950
  • #951
i wonder if we’ll start seeing iphone smuggling over the canadian border into the US!
 
  • #952
For what it's worth, global insulin production is dominated by three companies: Eli Lily (US), Novo Nordisk (Denmark) and Sanofi (France).

Eli Lilly manufactures a lot of its diabetes and obesity medications in Kinsale and is opening a massive manufacturing plant in Limerick, due to start production in 2026, focusing on biologics for Alzheimer's disease. I wonder what will happen with that when pharma tariffs hit.

"The Kinsale facility is pivotal to maintaining the safe and reliable supply of Lilly's diabetes and obesity medications."

 
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  • #953
Billionaires Speak Out Against Trump’s Tariffs: ‘Huge Policy Mistake’

Elon Musk - Tesla CEO
Ken Griffin - the Citadel founder
Jamie Dimon - JPMorganChase CEO
Bill Ackman - hedge fund manager
Daniel Loeb - hedge fund manager
Larry Fink - BlackRock CEO
Joe Lonsdale - Palantir cofounder
Ken Langone - Home Depot cofounder
Ray Dalio - runs the world’s biggest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates
Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager
Ken Fisher - Fisher Investments chairman

Other GOP supporters speaking out:
Kimbal Musk - Tesla shareholder
Dave Portnoy - Barstool Sports owner
Joe Rogan - podcaster
Ben Shapiro - conservative commentator
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky
 
  • #954
The USA went to war with China once before.. (1950 to 1953 ) , the last time US fought China in combat, it brought with it the whole United nations to Korea against a China with no naval or air force and in the end got a draw!! a draw!! the border Demiltarized Zone is still in effect this day...
 
  • #955
Eli Lilly manufacturers a lot of its diabetes and obesity medications in Kinsale and is opening a massive manufacturing plant in Limerick, due to start production in 2026, focusing on biologics for Alzheimer's disease. I wonder what will happen with that when pharma tariffs hit.

"The Kinsale facility is pivotal to maintaining the safe and reliable supply of Lilly's diabetes and obesity medications."


I have been wondering if some of these companies feel FORCED to put some manufacturing in the US, if they will split their operations.

Sort of like the China+1 strategy that has been going on for a few years now. Have some manufacturing in the US (enough to satisfy that market) and some elsewhere. Maybe a US+1 strategy.

Because no-one else is going to want to pay US tariffs for their pharmaceuticals.

 
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  • #956
The USA went to war with China once before.. (1950 to 1953 ) , the last time US fought China in combat, it brought with it the whole United nations to Korea against a China with no naval or air force and in the end got a draw!! a draw!! the border Demiltarized Zone is still in effect this day...

Interestingly, I was just reading about two new next-generation Chinese fighter jets that the world has spotted in the skies recently. The J-50 and the J-36.


 
  • #957
I think Republicans will soon vote to take away the tariff ability of trump. If he vetoes it, they'll bring it back with a 3/4 majority. If they take away his tariff ability that will box in his ability to cause trouble. Of course then he could try and start wars like with Canada. But if he does that, I think he will be impeached by Republicans and Democrats alike. I think Republicans should get on board sooner rather than later to impeach Trump, because they longer they leave them up there the more trouble he's going to cause. It's crazy that he was ever allowed to run to begin with.
 
  • #958
Eli Lilly manufacturers a lot of its diabetes and obesity medications in Kinsale and is opening a massive manufacturing plant in Limerick, due to start production in 2026, focusing on biologics for Alzheimer's disease. I wonder what will happen with that when pharma tariffs hit.

"The Kinsale facility is pivotal to maintaining the safe and reliable supply of Lilly's diabetes and obesity medications."

I read elsewhere that both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are reducing production of insulin in order to increase production to their obesity injectables. This is on the basis that tackling obesity will reduce the incidence of Type II diabetes as well as treating other conditions that go hand in hand with obesity such as hypotension, high cholesterol, inflamatory liver conditions etc. Obviously the injectables are more expensive than insulin, but in most developed countries with state-run health services their cost can probably be justified. Presumably in the longer term, insulin supplies will still be available where they are the appropriate option.

Here in the UK, the NHS plans to make injectables available to everyone who will benefit from them but this will take quite a few years, not least because of supply issues. I would expect the NHS to be able to negotiate very price-advantageous contracts which may make it a cheaper option than prescribing half a dozen other drugs to deal with a whole raft of individual health conditions. Sort out the obesity and other problems will largely sort themselves out.
 
  • #959
i wonder if we’ll start seeing iphone smuggling over the canadian border into the US.
They're certainly easier to conceal than truckloads of fertiliser.
 
  • #960
They're certainly easier to conceal than truckloads of fertiliser.
Yes I was definitely thinking about that earlier. Of course if you have tariffs, the next things that happens is a booming black market.

Also how easy would it be to cheat with paying the import duties? How can they check all that? That's billions of goods all over all the borders. For example just off the top of my head here, I can think of a way to cheat. International companies could start a club. Kind of like Sam's club. And the American companies pay them money to be a member. Then the international company charges only 50 percent for the order, the American pays 25% to the government, which in reality is only a 12% tariff, and then the American company pays 50% directly to the international company, for the quote membership. There are many ways to work around this.
 
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